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Credit Quality Improved At A Slower Pace In Third Quarter 2023

(Editor's Note: Rating actions in this report are calculated based on the rating at the start and the end of each quarter. )

Key Takeaways

  • U.S. Public Finance (USPF) credit quality improved in the third quarter of 2023 (for the 10th consecutive quarter), albeit at a slowing pace: 180 upgrades and 56 downgrades, compared with 465 upgrades, and 79 downgrades in the second quarter.
  • Improved finances were the dominant theme driving upgrades in the third quarter (72 of 180 overall), while operations were the leading reason for downgrades (19 of 56 overall).
  • Higher education and charter schools had the highest upgrade rate, with 2% of obligors upgraded during the quarter. Healthcare led downgrades, at 4%.
  • There were no state level rating changes in the third quarter, following three upgrades in the second quarter.

Credit Quality Improved For The 10th Quarter In A Row

Credit quality for U.S. Public Finance (USPF) rose overall in the third quarter of 2023, but to a lesser degree than the second quarter. USPF issuers rated by S&P Global had 180 upgrades (166 non-housing and 14 housing), down noticeably from 465 upgrades in the second quarter of 2023 (404 non-housing and 61 housing). Downgrades also fell in the third-quarter, to 57 (56 non-housing and one housing), from 79 in the second quarter of 2023 (70 non-housing and nine housing). There was one default in the third quarter, down from three in the second quarter.

Rating actions: improving finances led to most upgrades

The most cited reason for upgrades in the third quarter of 2023 was strengthening finances, which led to 72 upgrades, while operating inefficiencies were the most common cause of downgrades, with 19 (see chart 1).

Chart 1

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A positive third quarter, from a rating performance perspective, means there have now been 10 straight quarters of improving credit quality, following the four quarters at the height of the pandemic when downgrades exceeded upgrades.

Chart 2

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Chart 3

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Rating Distributions

USPF ratings of all types partly correlate to the sovereign rating on the U.S., with S&P Global Ratings last review published on March 16, 2023, showing a 'AA+' rating with a stable outlook. Just over 5% of non-housing ratings and 17% of housing ratings are 'AAA'. There were six upgrades to 'AAA' in the third quarter, down from 10 in the second quarter (see table five for the full list). There were three USPF ratings lowered from 'AAA' in the third quarter, all related to the City of Fisher, Indiana, because of growing debt and high fixed costs.

There were four rising stars (obligors that started the quarter at speculative grade and upgraded to investment grade), down from seven in the second quarter, and there was one fallen angel (obligors that started the quarter at investment grade and downgraded to speculative grade), down from five in the first quarter.

Table 1

Rating distribution (as of Sep. 30, 2023)
Number of ratings
USPF ex. housing Tax secured Appropriation Utilities Health care Higher education Transportation Charter schools Housing
AAA 1119 821 63 187 0 45 3 0 382
AA 9140 5501 2299 963 111 187 79 0 1582
A 9395 5960 1792 980 189 312 161 1 156
BBB 1184 504 84 141 92 184 30 149 62
BB 326 48 15 9 26 51 3 174 15
B 34 3 3 1 8 8 1 10 12
CCC/C 7 1 1 0 2 3 0 0 10
Totals 21205 12838 4257 2281 428 790 277 334 2219
As percentage (%)
AAA 5.28 6.40 1.48 8.20 0.00 5.70 1.08 0.00 17.21
AA 43.10 42.85 54.01 42.22 25.93 23.67 28.52 0.00 71.29
A 44.31 46.42 42.10 42.96 44.16 39.49 58.12 0.30 7.03
BBB 5.58 3.93 1.97 6.18 21.50 23.29 10.83 44.61 2.79
BB 1.54 0.37 0.35 0.39 6.07 6.46 1.08 52.10 0.68
B 0.16 0.02 0.07 0.04 1.87 1.01 0.36 2.99 0.54
CCC/C 0.03 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.47 0.38 0.00 0.00 0.45
Data as of Sep. 30, 2023. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Net Rating Actions Positive Since Start of 2020

At the start of the pandemic in early 2020, we saw a dramatic negative cumulation of downgrades in non-housing, reaching a low point in net rating actions in the first quarter of 2021, with 702 more downgrades than upgrades (see Chart 4). Since then, it has completely reversed, with cumulative net rating actions reaching zero in the third quarter of 2022. The trend of positive credit quality improvements has led to a net total of 660 more upgrades than downgrades since the pandemic began.

Chart 4

image

For housing ratings, there was a similar cumulation of negative rating actions, though the drop was more shallow than non-housing (see chart 5). Housing ratings reached the bottom in the first quarter of 2022, with 125 more downgrades than upgrades. Cumulative net rating actions for housing turned positive in the second quarter of 2023. Since the start of the pandemic, there has now been 41 more upgrades than downgrades.

Chart 5

image

Multiple notch downgrades more than double multiple notch upgrades

In the third quarter of 2023, there were seven large rating movements of three or more notches, with one downgrade of five notches, and six upgrades of three notches. The five notch downgrade was on Decatur Hospital Authority's revenue bonds, which were lowered to 'B-' form 'BB+' because of escalating operating losses. The only default in the third quarter was a two notch downgrade from 'CC'.

Table 2

Multiple notch rating changes, Q3 2023
Notch change* Notches Charter schools Health care Higher education Housing Tax secured Utilities Grand total
-5 -5 1 1
3 3 4 2 6
Total Grand total 0 1 4 0 2 0 7
*Negative numbers indicate downgrades. Data as of Sep. 30, 2023. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

2023 Q3 Rating Actions – Sectorial Trends

Education improved the most, while health care had the largest decrease in credit quality

Education (higher education and charter schools) had the largest increase in credit quality in the third quarter, with 2% of ratings upgraded compared with under 0.4% downgraded (see chart 6). The health care sector hda the largest decrease in credit quality in the third quarter, with 4% of ratings downgraded compared with 0.5% of ratings raised.

Chart 6

image

State and local governments

State governments.   There were no rating actions on state government general obligation debt in the third quarter, down from three in the second quarter. The most common state level rating is 'AAA' at 15, followed by 'AA', with 13. There are only four states rated in the 'A' category, Pennsylvania and Kentucky at 'A+', New Jersey at 'A', and Illinois at 'A-', the lowest rated state.

Chart 7

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Chart 8

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Chart 9

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Chart 10

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Chart 11

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Chart 12

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Appendix

Table 3

Q3 2023 upgrades and downgrades
Sector Upgrades Downgrades Defaulted
Total USPF ex. housing 166 55 1
State and local* 120 31 0
Tax decured 96 25 0
Appropriation 24 6 0
Utilities 18 5 0
Health care 2 16 0
Higher education 18 2 0
Charter schools 3 1 1
Transportation 5 0 0
Housing 14 1 0
Data as of Sep. 30, 2023. *Includes tax-secured and appropriation securities. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & insights.

Table 4

Upgrade/Downgrade# history
USPF ex. Housing Tax secured Appropriation Utilities Health care Higher Education Transportation Charter Schools@ Housing*
Up Down Up Down Up Down Up Down Up Down Up Down Up Down Up Down Up Down All up All down 12 month trailing-Up 12 month trailing -Down 3 month trailing -Up 3 month trailing -Down
1/1/2001 154 38 62 5 64 1 16 9 5 21 5 2 2 0 0 0 6 7 160 45
4/1/2001 740 106 83 3 629 67 23 4 1 20 3 12 1 0 0 0 38 11 778 117
7/1/2001 126 47 49 4 42 3 13 5 2 22 5 5 15 8 0 0 29 14 155 61 364 74
10/1/2001 99 14 56 3 20 4 11 2 3 4 7 1 2 0 0 0 25 8 124 22 352 67
1/1/2002 176 38 99 5 45 1 16 7 4 6 7 5 5 14 0 0 3 7 179 45 153 43
4/1/2002 109 105 59 9 21 64 21 6 1 11 1 5 6 10 0 0 3 25 112 130 138 66
7/1/2002 72 38 40 2 9 10 19 3 2 18 1 1 1 4 0 0 0 17 72 55 121 77
10/1/2002 104 127 57 13 26 72 13 15 4 19 2 7 2 1 0 0 6 18 110 145 98 110
1/1/2003 84 66 41 5 18 33 10 2 5 17 7 8 3 1 0 0 6 19 90 85 91 95
4/1/2003 87 46 52 10 6 1 13 1 5 21 6 7 5 5 0 1 4 24 91 70 97 100
7/1/2003 80 132 45 7 18 79 12 4 3 11 2 29 0 2 0 0 10 27 90 159 90 105
10/1/2003 126 92 56 15 26 28 17 7 11 30 16 8 0 4 0 0 24 9 150 101 176 86 110 110
1/1/2004 105 98 63 16 8 58 12 3 14 18 3 3 5 0 0 0 24 6 129 104 173 91 123 121
4/1/2004 97 66 53 11 17 34 16 8 8 9 2 3 1 1 0 0 2 11 99 77 117 88 126 94
7/1/2004 189 130 48 13 102 100 31 1 5 10 1 4 1 2 1 0 25 20 214 150 122 95 147 110
10/1/2004 121 58 65 10 22 22 18 9 9 14 6 3 1 0 0 0 11 10 132 68 122 99 148 98
1/1/2005 153 35 63 11 39 13 15 3 13 7 22 1 1 0 0 0 78 12 231 47 127 99 192 88
4/1/2005 109 66 53 10 25 42 8 2 16 10 4 2 3 0 0 0 5 110 114 176 127 103 159 97
7/1/2005 215 39 52 13 133 7 12 3 12 8 6 4 0 4 0 0 30 11 245 50 141 103 197 91
10/1/2005 153 109 75 44 24 23 22 7 20 18 10 8 2 7 0 2 13 42 166 151 146 103 175 126
1/1/2006 114 47 38 9 47 13 10 3 11 14 7 6 1 1 0 1 12 9 126 56 149 101 179 86
4/1/2006 252 22 68 10 144 1 14 2 14 6 9 3 3 0 0 0 30 8 282 30 165 97 191 79
7/1/2006 405 29 338 8 18 1 25 2 13 18 8 0 3 0 0 0 63 13 468 42 196 88 292 43
10/1/2006 194 38 99 13 37 5 22 6 12 10 12 3 12 0 0 1 34 3 228 41 203 83 326 38
1/1/2007 178 26 98 11 51 0 21 2 4 11 1 1 3 0 0 1 49 1 227 27 211 76 308 37
4/1/2007 178 56 75 28 62 11 24 2 9 8 7 5 1 2 0 0 9 4 187 60 218 75 214 43
7/1/2007 161 24 94 3 38 3 10 2 7 15 6 0 5 1 1 0 26 11 187 35 216 65 200 41
10/1/2007 165 49 75 13 32 8 26 1 10 19 15 4 4 1 3 3 12 10 177 59 220 65 184 51
1/1/2008 237 35 127 10 47 2 41 3 7 18 9 1 6 1 0 0 6 16 243 51 221 65 202 48
4/1/2008 631 31 418 7 103 2 94 1 5 20 9 0 1 1 1 0 7 63 638 94 265 58 353 68
7/1/2008 594 31 299 6 232 1 42 2 4 21 12 0 5 1 0 0 13 36 607 67 295 59 496 71
10/1/2008 668 44 291 7 60 4 298 0 7 28 5 4 6 1 1 0 31 30 699 74 339 53 648 78
1/1/2009 759 212 525 18 140 152 82 5 4 30 1 3 3 4 4 0 23 152 782 364 394 79 696 168
4/1/2009 614 83 331 16 116 41 149 1 5 22 6 3 7 0 0 0 26 77 640 160 424 90 707 199
7/1/2009 403 32 227 4 90 4 67 8 3 11 10 1 6 4 0 0 8 33 411 65 419 91 611 196
10/1/2009 453 60 315 12 77 28 33 1 12 12 13 3 1 4 2 0 8 33 461 93 438 96 504 106
1/1/2010 684 278 524 47 88 209 58 7 8 10 2 2 2 3 2 0 7 85 691 363 477 124 521 174
4/1/2010 577 93 444 54 76 16 40 3 8 16 6 2 1 2 2 0 11 42 588 135 510 130 580 197
7/1/2010 256 40 158 18 34 2 44 4 7 10 11 3 1 3 1 0 8 61 264 101 517 136 514 200
10/1/2010 239 59 148 26 18 17 31 3 19 7 17 1 4 4 2 1 33 72 272 131 525 142 375 122
1/1/2011 444 300 242 68 105 212 56 6 13 2 16 5 6 4 6 3 22 15 466 315 543 164 334 182
4/1/2011 188 96 99 58 33 18 24 6 22 9 2 3 7 1 1 1 5 40 193 136 506 167 310 194
7/1/2011 94 126 38 53 9 49 28 4 16 12 2 5 0 2 1 1 13 1301 107 1427 465 280 255 626
10/1/2011 75 110 23 54 3 11 29 18 9 14 9 6 1 3 1 4 11 34 86 144 413 286 129 569
1/1/2012 126 90 43 40 24 22 44 12 11 10 2 4 2 0 0 2 8 59 134 149 359 268 109 573
4/1/2012 178 139 79 68 26 39 46 14 13 8 9 7 5 0 0 3 9 9 187 148 322 267 136 147
7/1/2012 139 149 66 79 27 39 26 8 14 10 2 7 3 0 1 6 3 39 142 188 299 278 154 162
10/1/2012 136 87 73 44 19 11 28 10 6 11 4 6 6 1 0 4 18 12 154 99 274 278 161 145
1/1/2013 200 128 83 88 85 15 19 11 9 6 4 3 0 1 0 4 12 12 212 140 234 259 169 142
4/1/2013 203 96 111 45 36 19 27 8 18 13 7 6 4 1 0 4 13 27 216 123 203 258 194 121
7/1/2013 274 118 163 49 70 19 24 15 7 10 5 10 5 3 0 12 10 13 284 131 204 261 237 131
10/1/2013 766 169 545 64 170 60 33 5 5 20 9 11 4 1 0 8 34 75 800 244 248 270 433 166
1/1/2014 681 163 521 80 109 41 17 15 13 10 7 8 12 1 2 8 10 4 691 167 267 258 592 181
4/1/2014 587 287 449 89 84 145 31 10 12 18 8 19 3 0 0 6 16 10 603 297 301 271 698 236
7/1/2014 738 368 460 93 236 228 28 8 9 14 4 10 1 0 0 15 35 8 773 376 357 184 689 280
10/1/2014 279 82 117 40 124 7 22 12 8 8 1 8 7 0 0 7 77 32 356 114 379 181 577 262
1/1/2015 235 161 143 70 35 42 27 7 24 18 3 18 2 0 1 6 23 4 258 165 390 183 462 218
4/1/2015 273 139 141 61 64 33 35 12 21 15 5 11 5 1 2 5 10 3 283 142 398 182 299 140
7/1/2015 319 156 139 52 112 55 34 24 19 3 3 12 11 2 1 8 23 2 342 158 414 180 294 155
10/1/2015 228 108 137 52 16 17 36 18 19 10 4 5 14 1 2 5 8 2 236 110 421 181 287 137
1/1/2016 266 138 143 61 39 30 46 20 8 6 21 14 7 1 2 6 19 18 285 156 427 182 288 141
4/1/2016 235 155 117 54 26 40 51 17 9 15 22 15 9 2 1 12 20 43 255 198 431 188 259 155
7/1/2016 204 156 101 45 49 66 33 14 12 7 6 15 2 1 1 8 11 3 215 159 425 191 252 171
10/1/2016 220 270 106 50 25 158 51 28 8 11 19 13 5 1 6 9 14 9 234 279 378 193 235 212
1/1/2017 251 272 137 76 41 128 53 27 8 12 4 12 5 0 3 17 10 24 261 296 342 204 237 245
4/1/2017 228 120 99 67 91 19 13 6 11 4 1 19 7 0 6 5 9 9 237 129 311 190 244 235
7/1/2017 157 153 90 53 25 57 20 16 5 14 8 4 4 2 5 7 12 5 169 158 261 172 222 194
10/1/2017 234 115 145 65 42 18 22 6 7 7 8 8 5 2 5 9 7 7 241 122 251 173 216 136
1/1/2018 551 97 340 53 175 8 19 8 8 7 3 10 0 2 6 9 3 32 554 129 276 170 321 136
4/1/2018 311 168 176 75 75 57 19 13 16 9 2 6 15 0 8 8 7 42 318 210 279 175 371 154
7/1/2018 276 144 132 84 87 9 26 20 6 14 3 10 19 2 3 5 29 13 305 157 276 175 392 165
10/1/2018 232 156 133 98 54 28 21 13 6 8 1 6 17 0 0 3 21 24 253 180 277 181 292 182
1/1/2019 284 108 183 65 52 19 30 10 6 6 5 5 8 0 0 3 0 11 284 119 277 178 281 152
4/1/2019 261 116 171 58 41 12 24 22 10 7 6 7 7 5 2 5 8 30 269 146 278 174 269 148
7/1/2019 199 106 120 63 37 13 30 10 3 5 7 7 0 0 2 8 2 71 201 177 277 175 251 147
10/1/2019 216 114 130 69 37 5 26 17 4 7 4 14 10 0 5 2 5 31 221 145 276 164 230 156
1/1/2020 112 106 58 53 21 7 21 17 6 9 3 16 2 1 1 3 21 7 133 113 265 149 185 145
4/1/2020 8 171 4 91 0 33 4 9 0 13 0 14 0 7 0 4 2 43 10 214 247 156 121 157
7/1/2020 13 247 7 103 1 25 4 15 0 7 0 23 0 71 1 3 15 83 28 330 235 170 57 219
10/1/2020 28 314 11 68 1 168 9 16 0 6 1 20 4 28 2 8 25 39 53 353 219 189 30 299
1/1/2021 51 80 25 30 2 16 14 14 0 7 0 11 9 2 1 0 18 9 69 89 179 186 50 257
4/1/2021 105 74 59 28 14 18 20 16 1 3 5 5 1 1 5 3 4 6 109 80 161 175 77 174
7/1/2021 206 70 118 35 56 9 19 16 6 7 2 2 0 0 5 1 10 18 216 88 154 170 131 86
10/1/2021 156 56 81 25 15 5 16 10 13 5 7 6 21 1 3 4 5 15 161 71 146 160 162 80
1/1/2022 305 51 106 22 162 4 14 15 3 4 4 6 14 0 2 0 2 8 307 59 148 155 228 73
4/1/2022 183 62 92 37 41 2 16 5 8 8 6 7 12 0 8 3 4 2 187 64 141 149 218 65
7/1/2022 170 75 89 34 13 4 33 16 3 11 1 6 29 2 2 2 12 12 182 87 140 141 225 70
10/1/2022 166 64 81 25 25 5 22 12 3 10 11 10 23 1 1 1 55 3 221 67 140 135 197 73
1/1/2023 135 52 67 18 24 0 5 8 5 14 8 9 20 0 6 3 52 4 187 56 144 130 197 70
4/1/2023 404 70 132 28 227 7 21 9 3 8 6 14 14 0 1 4 61 9 465 79 182 119 291 67
7/1/2023 166 56 96 25 24 6 18 5 2 16 18 2 5 0 3 2 14 1 180 57 195 96 277 64
#Downgrades include defaults. '@All active charter school ratings are included in this category. Prior ratings often were categorized as appropriation debt. *Only tracked annually prior to 2006. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights. Data as of Sep. 30, 2023.

Table 5

USPF rating actions, third quarter 2023
Obligor Sector Old rating Latest rating date New rating Upgrade/Downgrade Old sort New sort Change
Pointe Schools Charter Schools CC 7/10/2023 D Default 2 0 -2

Related Research:

This report does not constitute a rating action.

Primary Credit Analysts:Zev R Gurwitz, New York + 1 (212) 438 7128;
zev.gurwitz@spglobal.com
Nick W Kraemer, FRM, New York + 1 (212) 438 1698;
nick.kraemer@spglobal.com
Research Contributor:Yogesh Kumar, CRISIL Global Analytical Center, an S&P affiliate, Mumbai

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