Presentation highlights:

• Global commitments and regulations (EU, China, USA, RoW)
• OEM reactions
• BEV readiness (vehicle prices, driving ranges charging infrastructures)

Reinhard Schorsch, Director, Automotive Planning Solutions, S&P Global

China NEV development has always been a hot topic in the automotive industry. Starting from 2021, under the phase 5 CAFC regulatory pressure, the conventional powertrain CO₂ reduction technology is continuously evolving, but that will not be enough to achieve compliance. Electrification is expected, with more vehicles entering the market, especially NEVs.

For NEV development, in the short term, with full support from the Chinese government, the development of the NEV market highly depends on fiscal subsidies. While in the long term, the “carrot” will be replaced by the “stick”, the future stringent ‘Dual Credit’ regulation will play an important role in pushing the development of NEVs.

• Mainland China NEV market review - ‘Carrot’ incentives market development in the short term
  • BEV market review
  • PHEV market review
• Mainland China NEV market outlook ‘Stick’ regulators that drive the market upwards in the long term
  • Challenge from CAFC & NEV credit compliance
  • BEV market outlook
  • PHEV market outlook

Tony Wang, Associate Director, APAC Powertrain Forecasting, Automotive, S&P Global

Presentation highlights:

• Overall Powertrain and Electrification Investment Outlook for 2025/2030 regulatory compliance
• Outlook on battery cost trends of car manufacturers in meeting 2030 CAFE/NEV target
• Incremental Investment and Cost/benefit of car manufacturers

Monika Punshi, Sr. Research Analyst, CO₂ Compliance and Cost Forecasting, S&P Global

Presentation highlights:

• Path to 100% electric vehicles in the mid-2030s, while meeting 2030 fuel economy regulations
• Possibility of future regulatory changes

Toru Hatano, Associate Director Research Analyst, Automotive, Japan Powertrain, and Compliance, S&P Global

Takeji Kojima, Managing Executive Officer In charge of R&D Administration, Product Strategy, Technical Research Center and Carbon Neutrality, Mazda Motor Corporation

India set targets for 2030 to reduce the GHG intensity of GDP. India is already ahead of the trajectory to meet the INDC’s and is one of the few countries which is already on the path to limit the temperature rise to 1.5degC.

However, a deficit in local fuel reserves has always been high on GOI’s radar due to the Energy security issue. Limiting the imports of crude oil is one of the key targets set by the Government of India to limit the foreign exchange outgo.

The Case Study:
Many initiatives have been taken by the Auto Industry to reduce crude oil imports in the past. Fuel Efficiency improvement of vehicles driven mainly by customer requirements and lately regulation of fuel efficiency on Passenger vehicles are a few of those initiatives, besides educating customers on fuel-efficient driving and maintenance tips.

Besides this Industry has been working hand in hand with the Government of India to develop powertrains to run on Alternate fuels. Ethanol blending was introduced in 2003 with E5 blends and ramped up to E10 from 2008 and will spread across the country by end of the year. E20 introduction is planned much ahead of the BioFuel policy released in 2018. Similarly, on the alternate fuels based on Gas, retro-fitment of CNG systems was done since the early 2000’s on a limited scale and in some pockets of the country. Maruti realized in the early 2000’s the potential of developing CNG Engines for passenger vehicles and increase the acceptance of the fuel among customers. CNG powertrains, with CO2 lower by around 20% from the base Gasoline engine was a low-cost answer for hybridization of powertrains, which was happening in the developed markets.

What started as an initiative to reduce the crude oil imports today has taken a turn towards reduction of GHG and decarbonization of the transport sector. Ethanol-based Flex-fuel vehicles, as being discussed for the future, can mark the start of usage of carbon-neutral fuels, while already CNG-based vehicles today are utilizing the Bio-CNG fuel being produced in small towns and countryside, a fuel which is carbon negative in its true sense.

C V Raman, Chief Technology Officer, Maruti Suzuki India limited

Presentation highlights:

• The exponential growth of electrification in China
• Intelligent technologies accelerating the development of electrification
• Automotive industry to take the lead in achieving the goal of carbon neutralization

Dongshu Cui, Secretary General of China Passenger Car Market Information Association (CPCA)

Jie Zhang, General manager, Chongqing CHANGAN Automobile Software Technology Company and Deputy General Manager of Changan Automobile Intelligent Research Institute

More large economies have committed to a net-zero carbon emissions future by or near the mid of 21st century. According to IEA, transportation is responsible for 24% (est. 8.2 Gt in 2019) of direct CO₂ emissions from fuel combustion globally, among which road vehicles account for nearly three-quarters. To move toward net-zero plans to phase out the sales of fossil-fuel-powered vehicles, replacing them with zero electric vehicles (ZEVs), is a key element. However, considering the overall lifecycle CO₂ emissions renewable energy choices to power ZEVs do play a more significant role in achieving net-zero, along with the regulatory mechanisms being the main driver for ZEV ramping up in key regions (e.g., China, EU, selected states in the US).

This panel session highlights the multiple factors that are crucial to collaborative and effective transportation policies to further promote electrification, clean energy, and ultimately the net-zero target.

Moderator: Vijay Subramanian, Global Director - CO₂ Compliance, Cost and Powertrain Forecasting, S&P Global
Panelists:

• Derek De Bono, Group Product Marketing Vice President, Valeo
• Horst Schneider, Managing Director, Head of European Automotive Research, Bank of America Europe Designated Activity Company Frankfurt am Main
• Maneesh Singh, Vice President - Strategic Development, DAO EV Tech
• Prashant K Banerjee, Executive Director, Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers

So far, the quest for the next-generation mobility and transportation solutions appears to have stalled a little bit due to a variety of external factors, while it could be argued that all the essential building blocks to enable next-gen mobility or transportation have been uncovered and sufficiently developed. Yet many obstacles remain, among which can be regulatory/ESG/regional/cultural differences, which is why a renewed focus upon the ecosystem appears necessary. Join our experts as we will highlight some of the more critical challenges ahead on the road towards successful next-gen mobility and transport of the future.

Tom De Vleesschauwer, Global Transport & Mobility Practice Leader, S&P Global

With Covid-19, as a disruptive factor, various mobility trends have taken different paths and growth dynamics. In this session, we will show you how MaaS (Mobility as a Service) such as ride-hailing and car-sharing has developed and what our vehicle volume projections for those services are.

Many EV start-ups in 2020 and 2021 are taking the route of SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) to go public. But there are many more players that are worth your attention. S&P Global will show you our latest assessment of EV start-up companies.

Mario Franjicevic, Principal Analyst, Automotive New Mobility, S&P Global

The driverless space has been plagued with overhyping, yet under-hyping it as a pipe dream discards the tremendous benefits and neglects the enormous potential of the technology to change mobility, and society.

In this session, we will showcase how EasyMile is gearing up for a driverless future through real-life deployments with a pragmatic approach, and how autonomous technology can provide novel solutions to existing challenges. We also will explore some of the latest mobility trends in autonomous people and goods transportation and address the following themes and questions:

• Beyond the hype - where is this all going?
• Real-life case studies - how driverless shuttles can enable a car-free society/autonomous vehicle to fill the job market gap
• Solving some of the industry's key challenges - the Horizon 2020's AWARD program

More about EasyMile deployments: TractEasy | EZ10 shuttle

Greg Giraud, Managing Director, Asia Pacific, EasyMile

Governments and truck manufacturers around the world are turning their focus to zero-emission technology as climate change takes center stage in the MHCV industry. However, millions of miles driven, a wide variety of applications, and traditionally small operating margins provide an interesting and challenging backdrop as the industry strives for a carbon-neutral future. Today, most zero-emission trucks are in a testing and exploratory phase but with increasingly aggressive regulations on the horizon, change is enviable, but exactly when and how remains a looming question.

In this session, IHSM will attempt to answer some of these questions and give our view on the future of the MHCV market.

Main topics include:

• Focus markets: China, Europe, Japan & United States
• Global push towards carbon neutrality
• Regulatory landscape
• Barriers and drivers for zero-emission trucks
• Long-term outlook for electrification, highlighting BEV and FCEV
• Reinventing The Truck (RTT) 2021

Gregory Genette, Senior Research Analyst, Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicle (MHCV), S&P Global

Dr. Yu Wang, Director, China Association of Productivity Promotion Centers (CPPC)

The presentation will give perspectives on these questions:

• Why are AVs so hard to develop?
• How do different AV use cases affect AV complexity?
• How does AV regulation impact AV complexity?
• What AV use cases are leading AV software platforms entering?
• How could deployment of AV use cases evolve?

Dr. Egil Juliussen, Contributing Editor at EE Times, Consultant on Automotive Technology Trends

Since its establishment in 2019, KINTO has been striving to adopt "easy ways to connect with cars".  As the industry evolves, we progress to create a world where new mobility services and infrastructure, local to global, can be scaled to take on various challenges and limitations.  In this session, we would like to share our case studies and learnings. 

Satoshi Honjo, Vice President, Managing Officer & CSO, KINTO Corporation 

Yuki Saji, President and CEO, Boldly Inc. (a Softbank company)

Hiroshi Oguma, Managing Executive Officer, Deputy General Manager of Sales Department and General Manager of Mobility Solution Promotion Division, Sumitomo Mitsui Auto Service Company Limited

The era of new mobility already appears well established in selected Asian, American and European markets, but it is also clear that many challenges remain before a major mobility transition can occur. The panel of industry leaders will discuss and explore what is driving the move towards new mobility; and which challenges could prove to major roadblocks to the future. Will the goal of carbon-netrality pose as an opportunity or challenge? Overall the panel will attempt to separate the signals from the noise in our quest for new mobility.

Moderator: Tom De Vleesschauwer, Global Transport & Mobility Practice Leader, S&P Global

Panelists:

• Bill Russo, Chair of the Automotive Committee at the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai & CEO of Automobility Limited
• Dr. Miranda Brawn, Independent Non-Executive Director on the Board of Switch Mobility Ltd
• Rick Mo, Senior R&D Manager, Green and Smart Mobility, Smart City Division at HKPC & Head of Business Development Unit, Automotive Platforms & Application Systems R&D Centre
• Dr. Tapan Sahoo, Executive Director, Product Planning, Design, Cost & Program Management, Maruti Suzuki

Dialogue: When will mobility services become commonplace in Japan?

• Yuki Saji, President, and CEO, Boldly Inc. (a Softbank company)
• Satoshi Honjo, Vice President, Managing Officer & CSO, KINTO Corporation
• Makiko Hanai, Director, The Nikkan Jidosha Shimbun (Japan Automotive Daily)

Planning tomorrow’s vehicles by using today’s processes and methods will still work, but new technologies and new entrants are reinventing transportation in a fast way. Harmonization of hardware and software updates at the right timing will be the key to future vehicle solutions. How to establish core value by a new method of product planning? It will be essential to embrace a long-term vision to think well ahead of “just” the next vehicle generation.

Hiroshi Ataka, Manager, Automotive Supply Chain & Technology, S&P Global

Getting to Net Zero is about more than simply switching from internal combustion engines to electric vehicles. The effort requires fundamental shifts in the way a vehicle is conceptualized, architected and built. Carmakers, from the new players in America and China to the rapidly evolving companies in Detroit, Europe and beyond, are grappling with how to simplify increasingly complex vehicle architectures. These sophisticated frameworks will usher in connected, electric, and autonomous vehicles with a greatly reduced CO₂ footprint. Learn how electronics innovation and architectural evolution will shape the future and how they may determine the success or failure of our collective efforts to mitigate the impact of driving on our planet.

Shelly Van Dyke, VP & Head of Strategy, Automotive Processing & Automotive Segment, NXP Semiconductors

Battery technology is a hot topic in the auto industry because it is the most expensive and important component for the advent of a successful e-mobility era. Besides, batteries are also expected to play a significant role in achieving decarbonization in the energy industry. 

Considering the increasing penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) in the global vehicle market, understanding the environmental impacts of not only alternative propulsion cars but also their components and systems is key to sustainable e-mobility deployment. 

In this session, Dr. Kim will discuss the efforts of each country striving for the development of battery technology and the creation of an ecosystem, which is non-trivial in both the energy and auto industries. He will also discuss the conditions for creating a virtuous cycle of the battery ecosystem for carbon neutrality in the transportation sector. The scope of LCA for EVs and how to measure the CO₂ footprint of batteries installed in EVs from the “Cradle to Gate” perspective will also be discussed.

Richard Seiho Kim, Ph.D., Principal Analyst, Automotive Supply Chain & Technology, S&P Global

Lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) are the undisputed battery technology to beat – largely due to cost declines enabled by the growing electric vehicle (EV) market. The technology has been significantly improved concerning energy density, longevity, and safety. However, automakers today continue to invest in next-generation battery technologies like solid-state batteries, mostly owing to their increased energy density for increased vehicle range, and fast charging, as well as improved safety. These qualities are particularly attractive for the battery electric vehicle (BEV) industry. As LIBs are expected to remain dominant in the BEV market for decades to come, this presentation will highlight the current battery technology trends, what to expect in future battery innovations, and most importantly when we will see major uptakes?

Youmin Rong, Ph.D., Principal Analyst, Clean Energy Technology, S&P Global

With an evident shift towards battery electric vehicles underway within major automotive markets, increased focus is being given to how their drivers will charge. Faster and more prevalent charging infrastructure technologies will undoubtedly help, positioned wherever vehicles might dwell. However, vehicle power electronics technology much be sufficiently advanced to receive this power rapidly, safely, and without negative implications on the critical onboard energy storage mechanism: the battery. Alternating current (AC) and direct current (DC) solutions exist, both wired and wireless, with technical as well as domain-specific advantages.

In this session, Claudio will present the current state of vehicle-side and infrastructure-side charging technology, considering how the key components, their capabilities, and prevalence will grow over a ten-year horizon. Related advances in battery technologies will be touched upon, with context given to the myriad recent announcements around charging performance. Potential deviations to the forecast will be considered in the evaluation of technological progress and regulatory evolution, as well as differences in approach by region.

Claudio Vittori, Sr. Technical Research Analyst, Powertrain & E-Mobility Component Research, S&P Global

The automotive semiconductor market will boom at a faster pace compared to organic vehicle growth because of major trends in the automotive industry (vehicle electrification, autonomous driving, connectivity, etc.). Hybrid/electric vehicles especially will demand more semiconductor content for sensing, controlling, actuating compared to internal combustion engine vehicles. In this presentation following points will be addressed:

• Evolution of powertrain architecture and related semiconductor components
• Overall automotive semiconductor market share and suppliers, winners, and losers
• Impact on OEM strategies. Is direct sourcing a good approach? What will OEM take in-house?

Jung Ho Lee, Senior Research Analyst, Automotive Electronics, S&P Global

Yutaka Yagi, Managing Director & General Manager of Technology, Teijin Automotive Center Europe GmbH 

A summary discussion around the themes of the key sessions, considering questions such as:

• How are component manufacturers preparing for the era of electrified propulsion and carbon neutrality, from both business management and a manufacturing perspective?
• What are the primary concerns for both OEMs and OESs on the critical topics of ESG or LCA? Can a balance be struck between these issues and concerns around labor, business, and profitability?
• What is the role of the government in the transition from the internal combustion engine to e-mobility? How can they best support innovation?
• What might the landscape look like in ten years for existing bottleneck technologies such as batteries and EV charging infrastructure?

Moderator: Graham Evans, Director, Automotive Supply Chain & Technology, S&P Global

Panelists:

• Douglas Johnson-Poensgen, Chief Executive Officer, Circulor
• Jack Cheng, Chief Executive Officer, MIH Consortium
• Tom Flack, President & Chief Purchasing Officer, Tata Motors
• Dr. Vikram Gopal, Senior Vice President & Chief Technology Officer, Ascend Performance Materials
• Yutaka Yagi, Managing Director & General Manager of Technology, Teijin Automotive Center Europe GmbH