Developing Realistic Disaster Scenarios (RDS) for a global insurer
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A global insurer wanted to assess their exposure to a range of
realistic disaster scenarios that
would have risk implications across multiple clusters of insured
assets (contagion regions).
They were interested in testing exposure across their political
risk & trade credit portfolio as
well as their political violence portfolio.
Using a mixture of qualitative scenario
development and quantitative expertise to
assess
resulting damage factors, we help our clients
model how exposed they would be in the event
of low likelihood, high impact scenarios that
would see significant losses in multiple
locations.
We combine tried-and-tested scenario
methodologies with deep qualitative expertise and
country risk insight to identify scenario triggers, develop
plausible narratives and assess
impact down to city and metropolitan level. Finally, we provide
indicators that allow our
clients to monitor and receive early warning of changes to the
likelihood of these scenarios.
Our approach helps insurers and reinsurers test their
preparedness for political and
economic shocks, positioning them to better mitigate risk and
navigate geopolitical
volatility.