How possible penalties in 2020 can be avoided in the short term

The 95 g/km European vehicular CO₂ emissions target, the resulting monetary penalties for non-compliance, and the associated negative perceptions are major concerns for passenger car manufacturers currently operating in the European market. They are expected to comply and maintain profits in an unfamiliar business environment devastated by the global COVID-19 virus outbreak. Are better vehicle design, improved powertrain efficiency, and accelerated fleet electrification enough to achieve their respective CO₂ targets?

This report clarifies how the European CO₂ emission legislation applies to passenger vehicles in 2020 and evaluates what legislative facilities are available to assist manufacturers to define their CO₂ status. The resulting gaps-to-targets and how much penalty these gaps entail are then assessed using S&P Global's compliance forecasts. The characteristics of the vehicles making up the fleets that define these gaps are also discussed. The influence of actual sales trends on the compliance statuses is also reviewed and compared with the forecast, which describes how short-term market forces affect the compliance statuses month to month as 2020 closes out.

While the forecast analysis shows not every manufacturer will meet their target by the end of 2020, additional steps that improve the CO₂ effectiveness of their fleet and close the compliance gaps before then are suggested.