Customer Logins

Obtain the data you need to make the most informed decisions by accessing our extensive portfolio of information, analytics, and expertise. Sign in to the product or service center of your choice.

Customer Logins

My Logins

All Customer Logins
S&P Global Market Intelligence

  • S&P Global
  • S&P Dow Jones Indices
  • S&P Global Market Intelligence
  • S&P Global Mobility
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights
  • S&P Global Ratings
  • S&P Global Sustainable1
Close
Discover more about S&P Global’s offerings
Investor Relations
  • Investor Relations Overview
  • Investor Presentations
  • Investor Fact Book
  • News Releases
  • Quarterly Earnings
  • SEC Filings & Reports
  • Executive Committee
  • Corporate Governance
  • Merger Information
  • Stock & Dividends
  • Shareholder Services
  • Contact Investor Relations
Languages
  • English
  • 中文
  • 日本語
  • 한국어
  • Português
  • Español
  • ไทย
About
  • About Us
  • Contact Us
  • Email Subscription Center
  • Media Center
  • Glossary
Product Login
S&P Global Market Intelligence
  • Who We Serve
  • Solutions
  • News & Insights
  • Events
  • Product Login
  • Request Follow Up
  •  
    • Academia
    • Commercial Banking
    • Corporations
     
    • Government & Regulatory Agencies
    • Insurance
    • Investment & Global Banking
     
    • Investment Management
    • Private Equity
    • Professional Services
  • WORKFLOW SOLUTIONS
    • Capital Formation
    • Credit and Risk Solutions
    • Data & Distribution
    • Economics & Country Risk
    • Sustainability
    • Financial Technology Solutions
     
    • Issuer & IR Solutions
    • Lending Solutions
    • Post Trade Processing
    • Private Markets
    • Risk, Compliance, & Reporting
    • Supply Chain
    PRODUCTS
    • S&P Capital IQ Pro
    • S&P Global Marketplace
    • China Credit Analytics
    • Climate Credit Analytics
    • Credit Analytics
    • RatingsDirect ®
    • RatingsXpress ®
    • 451 Research
    See More S&P Global Solutions
     
    • Capital Access
    • Corporate Actions
    • KY3P ®
    • EDM
    • PMI™
    • BD Corporate
    • Bond Pricing
    • ChartIQ
  • CONTENT
    • Latest Headlines
    • Special Features
    • Blog
    • Research
    • Videos
    • Infographics
    • Newsletters
    • Client Case Studies
    PODCASTS
    • Economics & Country Risk
    • IR in Focus
    • Maritime and Trade Talk
    • Masters of Risk
    • Next in Tech
    • Private Markets 360°
    • Street Talk
    • The Pipeline: M&A and IPO Insights
    SEE ALL EPISODES
    SECTOR-SPECIFIC INSIGHTS
    • Differentiated Data
    • Banking & Insurance
    • Energy
    • Maritime, Trade, & Supply Chain
    • Metals & Mining
    • Technology, Media, & Telecoms
    • Investment Research
    • Sector Coverage
    • Expert Directory
    More ways we can help
    NEWS & RESEARCH TOPICS
    • Credit & Risk
    • Economics & Country Risk
    • Financial Services
    • Liquidity Crunch
    • Maritime & Trade
    • M&A
    • Private Markets
    • Sustainability & Climate
    • Technology
    See More
    • All Events
    • In-Person
    • Webinars
    • Webinar Replays
    Featured Events
    Building Resilience: Shaping the Future of Credit and Risk Management in Europe

    As geopolitical conflicts, escalating inflation rates, and disruptive supply chain issues continue to mount, companies are facing the urgent need to re-evaluate their approaches to managing and monito

    WebinarThe Big Picture: Generative AI’s Impact in 2024 and Beyond
    • 11/28/2023
    • Live, Online
    • 10:00 am - 11:00 am EST
    WebinarMoving Macro: Anticipating Economic Shifts of Today and Tomorrow
    • 11/30/2023
    • Live, Online
    • 10:00 am - 11:00 am EST | 04:00 pm - 05:00 pm CEST
  • PLATFORMS
    • S&P Capital IQ Pro
    • S&P Capital IQ
    • S&P Global China Credit Analytics
    OTHER PRODUCTS
    • Credit Analytics
    • Panjiva
    • Money Market Directories
     
    • Research Online
    • 451 Research
    See All Product Logins
BLOG Jan 14, 2020

Dry Bulk Trade: China's record low coal imports in December, a signal for a record high in January 2020?

Contributor Image
Daejin Lee

Director, Shipping Analytics and Research, S&P Global Commodity Insights

China's coal imports rose to 299.7 million tonnes in 2019, customs data showed on Tuesday, despite a government control to cap coal shipments at the 2018 level.

China's 2019 coal imports were up 6.3% compared with 2018 levels, while December's imports tumbled nearly 73% to 2.77 million tonnes, marking the lowest monthly level in more than a decade after customs stopped clearance at nearly all ports in the final month of 2019.

China coal imports to increase in January with eased import control

China coal imports to increase in January with eased import control

Source: IHS Markit Commodities at Sea

In reality, around 18 million tonnes of coal arrived in December 2019 based on commodities trade flow intelligence, IHS Markit Commodities at Sea.

Even considering land transported volume from Mongolia and Russia, understood to have around a 20% market share in China's coal imports, the custom clearance figure in December 2019 indicates the large missing volume will be pushed into 2020.

China's coal imports

In our view, January's coal imports in China might be a record volume with December's missing cargo included. However, actual coal shipments to China will not jump significantly as major coal exporters including Indonesia and Australia usually have a seasonal decline in production over the first quarter of the year with weather disruption including heavy rain and cyclones.

IHS Markit Freight Rate Forecast for dry bulk is currently taking the following view for the Chinese coal trade outlook:

  • We are likely to see a record clearance volume in January 2020, with December's missing cargo included, as happened last year.
  • China's coal imports are projected to recover in the next few months, with expectations that controls will be eased at major receiving ports at the beginning of January.
  • Furthermore, there will be speculative demand from traders as international prices remain attractive compared with Chinese domestic prices.
  • However, coal import growth over the first quarter will be limited with major coal exporters experiencing a seasonal decline in production and Chinese New Year approaching at the end of January.
  • China's total import quota is expected to be capped at around 300 million tonnes this year.
  • Upside risk:
  • The China-US trade relations have stablized
  • The Chinese central government introduced further stimulus measures to maintain a healthy economic growth for next year
  • International coal prices remain attractive enough for traders to continue to speculate
  • Downside risk:
  • Tougher coal import controls introduced by the Chinese government
  • Lower than expected coal consumption with higher alternative energy production including hydro and renewables
  • Chinese domestic coal production increased significantly

Posted 14 January 2020 by Daejin Lee, Director, Shipping Analytics and Research, S&P Global Commodity Insights

Previous Next
Recommended for you

Maritime & Trade: Maritime Solutions
Global Trade Solutions
How can our products help you?

We can optimize your trade data to help your business grow

Learn more

Hire industry-leading consultants by the hour

Get the objective, authoritative analysis you need without delays.
FIND AN EXPERT
Related Posts
VIEW ALL
Blog Nov 13, 2023

Hobbled Panama Canal pinched further as eastern Asia factory growth favors Suez

Blog Nov 13, 2023

Retailers pivot in fast-moving trans-Pacific as carriers accelerate blank sailings

Blog Nov 13, 2023

US wind industry navigates deep waters to meet ambitious offshore target

VIEW ALL
{"items" : [ {"name":"share","enabled":true,"desc":"<strong>Share</strong>","mobdesc":"Share","options":[ {"name":"facebook","url":"https://www.facebook.com/sharer.php?u=http%3a%2f%2fwww.spglobal.com%2fmarketintelligence%2fen%2fmi%2fresearch-analysis%2fdry-bulk-trade-chinas-record-low-coal-imports-in-december.html","enabled":true},{"name":"twitter","url":"https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=http%3a%2f%2fwww.spglobal.com%2fmarketintelligence%2fen%2fmi%2fresearch-analysis%2fdry-bulk-trade-chinas-record-low-coal-imports-in-december.html&text=Dry+Bulk+Trade%3a+China%27s+record+low+coal+imports+in+December%2c+a+signal+for+a+record+high+in+January+2020%3f+%7c+S%26P+Global+","enabled":true},{"name":"linkedin","url":"https://www.linkedin.com/sharing/share-offsite/?url=http%3a%2f%2fwww.spglobal.com%2fmarketintelligence%2fen%2fmi%2fresearch-analysis%2fdry-bulk-trade-chinas-record-low-coal-imports-in-december.html","enabled":true},{"name":"email","url":"?subject=Dry Bulk Trade: China's record low coal imports in December, a signal for a record high in January 2020? | S&P Global &body=http%3a%2f%2fwww.spglobal.com%2fmarketintelligence%2fen%2fmi%2fresearch-analysis%2fdry-bulk-trade-chinas-record-low-coal-imports-in-december.html","enabled":true},{"name":"whatsapp","url":"https://api.whatsapp.com/send?text=Dry+Bulk+Trade%3a+China%27s+record+low+coal+imports+in+December%2c+a+signal+for+a+record+high+in+January+2020%3f+%7c+S%26P+Global+ http%3a%2f%2fwww.spglobal.com%2fmarketintelligence%2fen%2fmi%2fresearch-analysis%2fdry-bulk-trade-chinas-record-low-coal-imports-in-december.html","enabled":true}]}, {"name":"rtt","enabled":true,"mobdesc":"Top"} ]}
Filter Sort
  • About Us
  • Quality Program
  • Contact Us
  • Email Subscription Center
  • Press Releases
  • Careers
  • Corporate Responsibility
  • Our History
  • Investor Relations
  • Leadership
  • © 2023 S&P Global
  • Terms of Use
  • Cookie Notice
  • Privacy Policy
  • Disclosures
  • Do Not Sell My Personal Information