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Sub-Saharan Africa's Fading Tailwinds And Missed Opportunities

Sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA) growth will weaken this year before likely rebounding in 2024, albeit with large variations. Sustaining rapid growth will be challenging due to weaker global expansion and a reluctance to invest due to high interest rates. Selected SSA sovereigns will continue to grapple with structural weaknesses. But the end of the pandemic, the reopening of tourism and services sectors, and falling food and fuel prices should support growth and bring some fiscal relief, although we see limited upside for ratings absent relevant structural reforms. Tighter credit conditions due to inflationary pressures and interest rates will restrict lending and exacerbate already elevated credit risk at Sub-Sahara African banks, leading to somewhat higher credit losses.


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