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Emerging Markets Monthly Highlights: Crossing Inflation Peak

March and April data confirm that emerging markets (EMs) have broadly passed their inflation peaks, given decreasing energy prices and strong base effects. However, food inflation remains stickier than we previously expected, particularly among food importers, as the effect of previously weak exchange rates and high fuel costs lifts domestic food prices. We expect disinflation to be gradual across most EMs, and with a few exceptions, we currently expect EMs to reach their respective central bank targets by the end of 2024.