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This Week In Credit: Rising European Default Rates On The Horizon (May 15, 2023)

Defaults could reach 3.6% by March 2024 from 2.8% in March 2023, according to our latest 12-month-trailing European speculative-grade corporate default rate forecast--with a prolonged growth slowdown or recession pushing the rate as high as 5.5%, in our pessimistic case. This week, Japan and China are at the forefront of a distinct Asia-Pacific weighting to economic releases, while Friday also sees the G7 summit kick off in Hiroshima. Meanwhile, on Tuesday, U.S. retail sales will be the next key data point for markets to consider, as the outlook for U.S inflation remains uncertain.


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