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Economic Research: Misplaced Market Fear (2022), Beyond The Fed and Dollar (2023)

The recurring market fear in 2022 -- that a combination of tightening by the Fed and a strong US dollar would precipitate a wave of debt crises in emerging markets (EM)-- was misplaced. By focusing simply on the dollar strength and the Fed, we risk missing the big picture. There is a need of a new framework for assessing debt risks in emerging economies. In 2023, beyond the Fed and the dollar, we will be keeping an eye on EM vulnerabilities more through the lenses of rising domestic real interest rates, private sector debt burdens, and strategically motivated geo-political financing flows that have kept balance of payments afloat for some.


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