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Economic Research: 10-Year/3-Month Yield Curve The Latest Domino to Fall

We believe the strong positive third quarter GDP reading is the expansion's last stand with a recession on the horizon. Recent indicators support our view, as rising prices and interest rates eat away at private sector purchasing power. Indeed, our dashboard of leading indicators from our Business Cycle Barometer (BCB) report still has only one of the nine indicators we tracked in September in positive territory--six were negative and two neutral. Only the initial jobless claims indicator remained in positive territory. While we believe this reduces chances for a deeper recession, extremely high prices and aggressive rate hikes damage affordability. As demand erodes, businesses that changed inventory strategy to 'just-in-case' from 'just-in-time' are left with full shelves to unwind at a loss and less need for workers that were in high demand just a few months ago. We expect the U.S. economy to fall into a shallow recession next year.