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Economic Research: Maybe Central Banks Are Not Turning Japanese After All

The inflation story has changed dramatically over the past year and now is arguably a good time to take stock of how far we have come in 2022. One conclusion is very clear: many policy makers and market economists were late in identifying the persistent component of inflation. In the final months of 2021, the debate was still around transitory versus persistent inflation with many economists, including ourselves, continuing to torture the data to tease out a plausible transitory story. Events have shown clearly that the persistent view was correct: inflation did not go away on its own. As a result of this inflation shock, the era of central banks struggling to reach their policy targets (generally around 2%) from below has come to an end, at least for now. The only exception is Japan.