Credit Conditions Europe Q3 2021: Late-Cycle Redux
– Overall: High vaccine efficacy, falling COVID-19 case numbers (notably among older vaccinated persons including in the U.K.), and extensive policy support have boosted confidence and reflated the regional economy. When and how to rebalance policy settings are two big questions. – Risks: COVID-19 and new variants as well as corporate debt sustainability remain key but moderating risks due to the success of the vaccine and improving outlook for the economy. Cost pressures, creating greater volatility in financial markets, remain an elevated risk. – Credit: Timely policy interventions have shored up the economy, limited the severity of credit deterioration, ensuring that banks, corporates, and households are well placed to feed the recovery. Pockets of vulnerability remain, notably in services catering to social activities, while cost input pressures and late-cycle behavior warrant close monitoring.
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