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Global Debt Leverage: Near-Term Crisis Unlikely, Even As More Defaults Loom

We estimate global debt to have hit a record $201 trillion by end-2020, equivalent to 267% of GDP. But a near-term debt crisis is unlikely given the continuing recovery of the global economy. We project global debt-to-GDP to ease to 258% by end-2021 before steadying at around 255%-256% in 2022-2023. The recovery is predicated on a successful vaccine rollout, availability of credit, and rebounding demand.


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