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Global Credit Outlook: Back On Track? [Extract]

The pandemic and its aftermath will continue to dominate credit conditions in 2021. Recent vaccine developments offer a clear route out of the acute phase of the crisis. Our central assumption remains that COVID-19 will come under control very gradually through a combination of vaccines, medical treatments, and testing starting from Q2 in developed economies, but more broadly only in the second half of the year. This should allow for many social-distancing measures to be lifted, a resumption of international travel, and a rebound in private demand. At that point, governments may be able to gradually phase out extraordinary fiscal support. Central banks are likely to keep interest rates exceptionally low and continue to offer liquidity support as necessary.


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