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Default, Transition, and Recovery: Global Speculative-Grade Corporate Default Rate To Rise To 3.75% By March 2026


Default, Transition, and Recovery: November Defaults Rise Well Above Long-Term Averages

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S&P Global Ratings' 2023 global corporate default tally has reached 141, following 14 defaults in November:

  • U.S.-based golf and country club owner-operator ClubCorp Holdings Inc.,
  • U.S.-based asset management company TortoiseEcofin Parent Holdco LLC,
  • U.S.-based flexible space provider WeWork Cos. LLC,
  • Brazil-based chemical producer Unigel Participacoes S.A.,
  • U.S.-based radio company Audacy Inc.,
  • U.S.-based corporate travel management company CWT Travel Group Inc.,
  • Canada-based satellite services provider Telesat Canada,
  • U.S.-based aerospace and defense company API Holdings III Corp.,
  • U.S.-based hospital and outpatient services provider Quincy Health LLC,
  • Ukraine-based meat producer and exporter MHP SE,
  • U.S.-based wholesale grocery distributor Moran Foods LLC,
  • U.S.-based health care technology company FinThrive Software Intermediate Holdings Inc.,
  • Germany-based cable TV services provider Tele Columbus AG, and
  • U.K.-based security systems provider Praesidiad Group Ltd.

The U.S. led defaults in November with nine, a sharp increase from the three defaults seen in October. Year-to-date defaults in the region are 2.7x the year-to-date level in 2022, with defaults in the region becoming more widespread across sectors.

S&P Global Ratings expects the U.S. trailing-12-month speculative-grade corporate default rate to reach 5% by September 2024, from 4.1% in September 2023 (see "Higher Rates For Even Longer Could Push The U.S. Speculative-Grade Corporate Default Rate To 5% By September 2024," Nov. 16, 2023).

Chart 1

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In November, monthly defaults at 14 were materially higher than their five-year and 10-year averages of 10 and 8.6, respectively. We expect additional credit deterioration and further defaults in 2024, especially among issuers rated 'B-' and lower. Close to 40% of issuers in this category have negative outlooks, meaning we believe they're at risk of a downgrade.

In addition, defaults in all four regions--the U.S., Europe, emerging markets, and other developed countries--are well above their long-term averages, indicating credit pressures are global (see chart 2). We expect financing conditions to continue to tighten in 2024. While borrowers have reduced 2024 maturities, a large share of speculative-grade debt matures in 2025 and 2026 (see "Global Credit Outlook 2024: New Risks, New Playbook," Dec. 4, 2023).

Chart 2

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Media And Entertainment Sector Defaults Match Pandemic-Era High

We believe consumer-facing sectors such as media and entertainment, consumer products, and health care will likely continue leading defaults amid high leverage and strained cash flow. Nearly one-third of November defaults were from the media and entertainment sector. Two of these defaulted due to refinancing risks associated with a material upcoming debt maturity as higher for longer rates continue to pressure lower-rated borrowers. The sector leads global defaults with 30 so far in 2023, over 4x the previous year's amount and level with its 2020 year-to-date tally (see chart 3).

Chart 3

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Distressed Exchanges Dominate November Defaults With Over 70%

Distressed exchanges remain the primary reason for defaults in 2023, accounting for 10 out of 14 in November. So far in 2023, there have been 65 distressed exchanges, as companies facing financial distress continue to elect to improve their liability structure or liquidity out of court. This is well above the year-to-date five-year average of 47 (see chart 4).

Chart 4

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Chart 5

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Table 1

Global corporate default rally rises to 3.4%
Region 12-month trailing speculative-grade default rate (%) Weakest links
U.S. 4.36* 229
Emerging market 1.9 25
Europe 2.84* 52
Other developed 5.1 8
Global 3.4 314
*Trailing-12-month speculative-grade default rates for from Nov. 30, 2022-Nov. 30, 2023 are preliminary and subject to change. Trailing-12-month speculative-grade default rates from Oct. 31, 2022-Oct. 31, 2023. Year-to-date data as of Nov. 30, 2023. Weakest link data as of Oct. 31, 2023. Other developed region includes Australia, Canada, Japan, and New Zealand. Default counts may include confidentially rated issuers. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence’s CreditPro®.

Table 2

Year-to-date global corporate default tally rose to 141 in November
Date Parent company Country/market Subsector To From Reason
Jan. 3, 2023

Moran Foods LLC (A)

U.S. Retail/restaurants SD CCC+ Distressed exchange
Jan. 16, 2023

Americanas S.A.

Brazil Retail/restaurants D B Missed principal and interest payments
Jan. 19, 2023

Party City Holdings Inc.

U.S. Retail/restaurants D CCC Bankruptcy
Jan. 20, 2023

Mexarrend S.A.P.I. de C.V.

Mexico Financial institutions D CC Missed principal and interest payments
Jan. 24, 2023

Serta Simmons Bedding LLC

U.S. Consumer products D CCC- Bankruptcy
Jan. 27, 2023

Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (A)

U.S. Retail/restaurants D CC Missed principal and interest payments
Jan. 30, 2023

Cooper-Standard Holdings Inc.

U.S. Automotive SD CC Distressed exchange
Jan. 31, 2023

Missouri TopCo Ltd.

U.K. Consumer products SD CCC- Distressed exchange
Jan. 31, 2023

Invacare Corp.

U.S. Health care D NR Bankruptcy
Feb. 3, 2023

Oi S.A.

Brazil Telecommunications D CCC- Missed principal and interest payments
Feb. 9, 2023

KNB Holdings Corp.

U.S. Consumer products D CCC- Bankruptcy
Feb. 10, 2023

Yak Access LLC

U.S. Capital goods D CCC Distressed exchange
Feb. 14, 2023

K&N Parent Inc.

U.S. Automotive D CCC- Distressed exchange
Feb. 15, 2023

99 cents only stores LLC

U.S. Retail/restaurants SD CCC+ Missed payments
Feb. 15, 2023

Avaya Holdings Corp.

U.S. High technology D CC Bankruptcy
Feb. 15, 2023

Diamond Sports Group LLC

U.S. Media and entertainment D CCC- Missed interest payments
Feb. 16, 2023

Stanadyne Holdings Inc.

U.S. Capital goods D NR Bankruptcy
Feb. 16, 2023 Confidential Confidential Media and entertainment D CC Confidential
Feb. 17, 2023

AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc.

U.S. Media and entertainment SD CC Distressed exchange
Feb. 17, 2023

Premier Brands Group Holdings LLC

U.S. Consumer products SD CCC Distressed exchange
Feb. 22, 2023

Altisource Portfolio Solutions S.A.

Luxembourg Financial institutions SD CC Distressed exchange
Feb. 22, 2023

Foodco Bondco SAU

Spain Retail/restaurants SD CCC- Missed interest payments
Feb. 24, 2023

Bausch Health Cos. Inc.

Canada Health care SD CCC+ Distressed exchange
Feb. 28, 2023

Equinox Holdings Inc.

U.S. Media and entertainment SD CCC- Distressed exchange
Feb. 28, 2023

Rising Tide Holdings Inc. (A)

U.S. Retail/restaurants SD CC Distressed exchange
Mar. 1, 2023

Akorn Operating Co. LLC

U.S. Health care D CCC+ Bankruptcy
Mar. 2, 2023

Community Health Systems Inc.

U.S. Health care SD B- Distressed exchange
Mar. 6, 2023

LendingTree Inc.

U.S. Media and entertainment SD B- Distressed exchange
Mar. 10, 2023

Loyalty Ventures Inc.

U.S. Media and entertainment D CCC+ Bankruptcy
Mar. 10, 2023

Silicon Valley Bank

U.S. Financial institutions D BBB Regulatory
Mar. 14, 2023

Bioplan USA Inc.

U.S. Media and entertainment D CCC Out-of-court restructuring
Mar. 14, 2023

Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes S.A.

Brazil Transportation SD CC Distressed exchange
Mar. 14, 2023

Technicolor Creative Studios

France Media and entertainment D CCC- Missed interest payments
Mar. 16, 2023

Mallinckrodt PLC (A)

Ireland Health care SD B- Distressed exchange
Mar. 17, 2023

National CineMedia Inc.

U.S. Media and entertainment D CCC- Missed interest payments
Mar. 17, 2023

SVB Financial Group

U.S. Financial institutions D NR Regulatory
Mar. 20, 2023

TV Azteca S.A. de C.V.

Mexico Media and entertainment D NR Bankruptcy
Mar. 23, 2023

Flint HoldCo S.a.r.l.

Luxembourg Chemicals, packaging, and environmental services SD CCC Missed principal payments
Mar. 31, 2023

Toro Private Holdings I Ltd.

U.K. Transportation SD CCC+ Distressed exchange
Mar. 31, 2023

Wahoo Fitness Acquisition LLC

U.S. Consumer products D CCC- Missed principal and interest payments
Apr. 5, 2023

FQM (Akubra) Inc.

Canada Metals, mining, and steel D NR Bankruptcy
Apr. 6, 2023

Lannett Co. Inc.

U.S. Health care SD CCC+ Missed interest payments
Apr. 6, 2023

Rodan & Fields LLC

U.S. Consumer products D CCC- Out-of-court restructuring
Apr. 6, 2023

Covis Finco S.a.r.l.

Switzerland Health care SD CCC+ Distressed exchange
Apr. 6, 2023 Confidential Confidential Capital goods D CCC- Confidential
Apr. 10, 2023

QualTek LLC

U.S. Capital goods SD CCC+ Missed interest payments
Apr. 10, 2023 Confidential Confidential Media and entertainment D CC Confidential
Apr. 12, 2023 Confidential Confidential Utlities D CCC- Confidential
Apr. 12, 2023

Guacolda Energia S.A. (A)

Chile Utlities D CC Distressed exchange
Apr. 17, 2023

Adler Group S.A.

Luxembourg Homebuilders/real estate companies SD CC Distressed exchange
Apr. 17, 2023

David's Bridal LLC

U.S. Consumer products D NR Bankruptcy
Apr. 19, 2023

Skillz Inc.

U.S. Media and entertainment SD CCC+ Distressed exchange
Apr. 24, 2023 Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (B) U.S. Retail/restaurants D CCC- Bankruptcy
Apr. 27, 2023

Burger BossCo Intermediate Inc.

U.S. Retail/restaurants D CCC- Missed principal and interest payments
Apr. 27, 2023

Grupo IDESA S.A. de C.V.

Mexico Chemicals, packaging, and environmental services SD CC Distressed exchange
May. 1, 2023

FXI Holdings Inc.

U.S. Chemicals, packaging, and environmental services SD CC Distressed exchange
May. 2, 2023 Confidential Confidential Consumer products D CCC- Confidential
May. 2, 2023

WeWork Cos. LLC (A)

U.S. Media and entertainment SD CC Distressed exchange
May. 5, 2023

Frigoglass SAIC

Greece Consumer products SD CC Distressed exchange
May. 8, 2023

CatLuxe S.a.r.l.

Luxembourg Consumer products D CC Out-of-court restructuring
May. 10, 2023

Range Parent Inc.

U.S. Capital goods SD CCC Distressed exchange
May. 15, 2023

Telesat Canada (A)

Canada Telecommunications SD CCC+ Distressed exchange
May. 16, 2023

Envision Healthcare Corp.

U.S. Health care D CCC Bankruptcy
May. 16, 2023

Monitronics International Inc.

U.S. Media and entertainment D CCC Bankruptcy
May. 17, 2023

At Home Group Inc.

U.S. Retail/restaurants SD CCC+ Distressed exchange
May. 17, 2023

CareerBuilder LLC

U.S. Media and entertainment SD CCC Distressed exchange
May. 18, 2023

Curo Group Holdings Corp.

U.S. Financial institutions SD B- Distressed exchange
May. 18, 2023

Venator Materials PLC

U.K. Chemicals, packaging, and environmental services D CCC- Bankruptcy
May. 22, 2023

LifeScan Global Corp.

U.S. Health care SD CC Distressed exchange
May. 24, 2023 Confidential Confidential Media and entertainment D CCC Confidential
May. 29, 2023 Confidential Confidential Forest products and building materials SD CCC- Confidential
Jun. 1, 2023

Genesis Care Pty Ltd.

Australia Health care D CCC- Bankruptcy
Jun. 1, 2023

Lucky Bucks LLC

U.S. Media and entertainment D CCC- Missed principal and interest payments
Jun. 2, 2023

Diebold Nixdorf Inc.

U.S. High technology D CC Bankruptcy
Jun. 4, 2023

PGX Holdings Inc.

U.S. Media and entertainment D NR Bankruptcy
Jun. 5, 2023

KCIBT Holdings L.P.

U.S. Consumer products SD CCC Distressed exchange
Jun. 6, 2023

Cyxtera Technologies Inc.

U.S. Telecommunications D CCC- Bankruptcy
Jun. 7, 2023

U.S. TelePacific Holdings Corp.

U.S. Telecommunications SD CCC- Distressed exchange
Jun. 9, 2023

Tacora Resources Inc.

Canada Metals, mining, and steel D CCC- Missed interest payments
Jun. 12, 2023

InterCement Brasil S.A.

Brazil Forest products and building materials SD CC Missed principal and interest payments
Jun. 13, 2023

Instant Brands Holdings Inc.

U.S. Consumer products D CCC- Bankruptcy
Jun. 21, 2023

Photo Holdings LLC

U.S. Media and entertainment SD CC Distressed exchange
Jun. 23, 2023

URS Holdco Inc.

U.S. Transportation SD CCC+ Distressed exchange
Jun. 30, 2023 Confidential Confidential Aerospace and defense D CCC- Confidential
Jul. 14, 2023

Azul S.A.

Brazil Transportation SD CC Distressed exchange
Jul. 14, 2023

NSA International LLC

U.S. Consumer products D CCC- Distressed exchange
Jul. 18, 2023

MVK Intermediate Holdings LLC

U.S. Consumer products SD CCC- Missed interest payments
Jul. 18, 2023 Mallinckrodt PLC (B) Ireland Health care SD CCC Missed interest payments
Jul. 20, 2023

Anchor Glass Container Corp.

U.S. Chemicals, packaging, and environmental services SD CCC Missed interest payments
Jul. 21, 2023

Exela Technologies Inc.

U.S. Media and entertainment SD CC Distressed exchange
Jul. 28, 2023

U.S. Renal Care Inc.

U.S. Health care D CCC+ Distressed exchange
Aug. 1, 2023 Confidential Confidential Homebuilders/real estate companies SD CCC- Confidential
Aug. 1, 2023 Confidential Confidential Capital goods D CCC Confidential
Aug. 4, 2023 Confidential Confidential Media and entertainment SD CC Confidential
Aug. 7, 2023

Western Global Airlines Inc.

U.S. Transportation D NR Bankruptcy
Aug. 8, 2023

Takko Fashion S.a.r.l.

Luxembourg Consumer products D CC Distressed exchange
Aug. 8, 2023

Yellow Corp.

U.S. Transportation D CC Bankruptcy
Aug. 9, 2023 Confidential Confidential Homebuilders/real estate companies SD CCC Confidential
Aug. 10, 2023

Rackspace Technology Global Inc.

U.S. High technology SD CCC+ Distressed exchange
Aug. 16, 2023

CNG Holdings Inc.

U.S. Financial institutions SD CC Distressed exchange
Aug. 16, 2023 Guacolda Energia S.A (B) Chile Utlities D CC Distressed exchange
Aug. 16, 2023

Strategic Materials Holding Corp.

U.S. Chemicals, packaging, and environmental services D CC Missed principal and interest payments
Aug. 21, 2023

Pure Fishing Inc.

U.S. Media and entertainment SD CCC Distressed exchange
Aug. 22, 2023

Dawn Acquisitions LLC

U.S. Telecommunications SD CCC Distressed exchange
Aug. 25, 2023

Maverick Gaming LLC

U.S. Media and entertainment SD B- Distressed exchange
Aug. 28, 2023

Digital Media Solutions Inc.

U.S. Media and entertainment SD CCC+ Distressed exchange
Aug. 31, 2023

Casino Guichard - Perrachon S.A.

France Retail/restaurants D CC Missed interest payments
Sep. 1, 2023

Carvana Co.

U.S. Automotive D CC Distressed exchange
Sep. 7, 2023

Cornerstone Chemical Co.

U.S. Chemicals, packaging, and environmental services D CC Missed interest payments
Sep. 11, 2023

Haya Holdco 2 PLC

Spain Consumer products D CC Distressed exchange
Sep. 13, 2023

Learfield Communications LLC

U.S. Media and entertainment SD CCC- Distressed exchange
Sep. 15, 2023 Confidential Confidential Transportation SD CC Confidential
Sep. 19, 2023

Sunac China Holdings Ltd.

Cayman Island Homebuilders/real estate companies D NR Bankruptcy
Sep. 21, 2023

Ideal Standard International S.A.

Luxembourg Forest products and building materials D CC Distressed exchange
Sep. 21, 2023 Confidential Confidential Capital goods SD CCC+ Confidential
Sep. 21, 2023 Rising Tide Holdings Inc. (B) U.S. Retail/restaurants SD CCC Distressed exchange
Sep. 21, 2023

Wheel Pros Inc.

U.S. Automotive SD CCC Distressed exchange
Sep. 25, 2023 Confidential Confidential Capital goods SD CC Confidential
Oct. 4, 2023

Poseidon Investment Intermediate L.P.

U.S. Chemicals, packaging, and environmental services SD CCC+ Distressed exchange
Oct. 4, 2023 Confidential Confidential Consumer products SD CCC+ Confidential
Oct. 13, 2023

Ensign Energy Services Inc.

Canada Oil and gas SD CCC Distressed exchange
Oct. 16, 2023

Rite Aid Corp.

U.S. Retail/restaurants D CCC- Bankruptcy
Oct. 19, 2023 Confidential Confidential Media and entertainment SD CCC Confidential
Oct. 24, 2023

Akumin Inc.

Canada Health care D CCC Bankruptcy
Oct. 25, 2023

Air Methods Corp.

U.S. Health care D CCC Bankruptcy
Oct. 25, 2023

Investimentos e Participacoes em Infraestrutura S.A. - Invepar

Brazil Transportation D CCC- Distressed exchange
Oct. 25, 2023

Muganbank OJSC

Azerbaijan Financial institutions D B- Regulatory
Nov. 1, 2023

ClubCorp Holdings Inc.

U.S. Media and entertainment SD CC Distressed exchange
Nov. 1, 2023

TortoiseEcofin Parent Holdco LLC

U.S. Financial institutions SD CCC Distressed exchange
Nov. 1, 2023 WeWork Cos. LLC (B) U.S. Media and entertainment SD CCC Missed interest payments
Nov. 2, 2023

Unigel Participacoes S.A.

Brazil Chemicals, packaging, and environmental services D CCC- Missed interest payments
Nov. 8, 2023

Audacy Inc.

U.S. Media and entertainment D CCC- Missed interest payments
Nov. 9, 2023

CWT Travel Group Inc.

U.S. Media and entertainment SD CCC+ Distressed exchange
Nov. 10, 2023 Telesat Canada (B) Canada Telecommunications SD CCC+ Distressed exchange
Nov. 13, 2023

API Holdings III Corp.

U.S. Aerospace and defense SD CCC+ Distressed exchange
Nov. 13, 2023

Quincy Health LLC

U.S. Health care SD CCC Distressed exchange
Nov. 14, 2023

MHP SE

Ukraine Consumer products SD CC Distressed exchange
Nov. 15, 2023 Moran Foods LLC (B) U.S. Retail/restaurants SD CCC+ Distressed exchange
Nov. 20, 2023

FinThrive Software Intermediate Holdings Inc.

U.S. Health care SD CCC+ Distressed exchange
Nov. 27, 2023

Tele Columbus AG

Germany Telecommunications D CCC Missed interest payments
Nov. 28, 2023

Praesidiad Group Ltd.

U.K. Capital goods D CCC- Distressed exchange
Data as of Nov. 30, 2023. NR--Not rated. SD--Selective defaults. (A) indicates an issuer's first default this year. (B) indicates an issuer's second default this year. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Related Research

Default Studies

More analysis and statistics are available in our annual default studies, published on RatingsDirect:

Corporate (financial and nonfinancial)
Structured finance
Public finance
Sovereign and international public finance

This report does not constitute a rating action.

Credit Research & Insights:Nicole Serino, New York + 1 (212) 438 1396;
nicole.serino@spglobal.com
Patrick Drury Byrne, Dublin (00353) 1 568 0605;
patrick.drurybyrne@spglobal.com
Research Contributor:Vaishali Singh, Pune;
vaishali.singh2@spglobal.com

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