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EMEA Emerging Markets Sovereign Rating Trends 2022: Stable Overall But Fiscal, External, And Geopolitical Risks Predominate

(Editor's Note: All ratings and data in this report are as of Dec. 31, 2021. The report does not reflect our Jan. 26, 2022 rating action on Burkina Faso in which we lowered the ratings to 'CCC+/C' and placed them on CreditWatch Developing following a military coup.)

This report does not constitute a rating action.

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Chart 4

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Rating Outlook And Trends

We rate 54 emerging market (EM) sovereigns in Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA). Of these, we rate 31 in the single 'B' category or below, and 16 in investment grade at 'BBB-' or above, with only seven falling in between these two extremities. There are four broad regions within EMEA: the largest group is sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), which includes 21 sovereigns with an average rating of 'B', reflecting low domestic savings, high economic concentration, limited monetary and economic resilience, and developing institutions. Of the 18 EM EMEA sovereigns downgraded since the onset of the pandemic in March 2020, 11 of them are in SSA. Another six downgrades were to sovereigns in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, where we rate 12 governments in total, including three of the world's top-five hydrocarbon exporters. Morocco lost its investment grade rating in April 2021, reflecting continuous pressures on its public finances and sizable twin fiscal and external deficits that pre-date the pandemic.

Since the start of the pandemic, there have been no upgrades in EM EMEA. We have made no changes to sovereign ratings in the Commonwealth of Independent States (where we rate seven current and two former members) or Central and Eastern Europe (CEE; where we rate 11, five of which are investment grade EU members and five of which are lower rated EU candidate countries) with the exception of Montenegro, which we downgraded on March 5, 2021, on the back of its vulnerability to a sharp drop in tourism earnings, given high public and external leverage.

As we enter the new year, sovereign rating trends in EM EMEA look to be stabilizing. The vast majority--44 out of 54 EM EMEA sovereigns we rate--carry a stable outlook, though these include most of the sovereigns that have experienced downgrades since the onset of the pandemic. While negative outlooks (six) still exceed positive ones (four), the differential between the two has declined from 12 one year ago to two at present. Moreover, our positive outlooks are more recent than our six negatives. For the region as a whole, we project that 2022 will be the second consecutive year of solid 4% real GDP growth, though this average GDP figure masks disparate outcomes: -0.7% in Belarus all the way up to 8% in Kuwait. Last year's sharp rally in oil and other commodity prices has continued into 2022, enabling an improvement in external performance given that just under 60% of the sovereigns we rate in EM EMEA are commodity exporters, with over 25% of them exporting primarily hydrocarbons (though the implications for large hydrocarbon importers are negative).

Since our last rating trends report, we have made the following positive outlook revisions:

  • On July 30, 2021, to our 'CCC+' long-term ratings on the Democratic Republic of the Congo after the IMF approved the first disbursement of a $1.5 billion three-year extended credit facility. Alongside the August 2021 allocation of special drawing rights, this doubled the country's stock of foreign exchange reserves.
  • On Oct. 1, 2021, to our 'B+' long-term ratings on Oman. This came after the government published a credible fiscal strategy to contend with its high stock of public debt, including the April 2021 introduction of a 5% VAT.
  • On Oct. 12, 2021, to our 'B+' long-term ratings on Armenia. This reflected improving fiscal and economic prospects since the ceasefire was agreed in late 2020.
  • On Dec. 10, 2021, to our 'BB+' long-term sovereign rating on Serbia. Serbia is benefiting from a strong economic recovery, resilient external performance, deepening domestic capital markets, and progress in reducing its debt to GDP.

Negative outlooks remain in place for:

  • Belarus, linked to its fragile economy and protracted political crisis;
  • Georgia, which has suffered a sharp decline in tourism earnings and a widening of fiscal imbalances;
  • Kuwait, following parliament blocking the state's ability to issue debt or drawdown on public assets to fund an expected 12% of GDP central government deficit;
  • Ethiopia, on political uncertainty, civil conflict, and limited reserve buffers; and
  • Rwanda, with its elevated twin deficits and constrained reserve levels.

In addition to the above, on Dec. 10, 2021, we placed our 'B+' long-term ratings on Turkey on negative outlook to reflect the second-round effects of a worsening currency crisis on financial stability, growth, inflation, and the general government's fiscal position.

While all six of the emerging EMEA sovereigns presently on a negative outlook suffered shocks connected to the pandemic (to terms of trade, tourism earnings, and fiscal balances), our rationale for the negative outlooks largely rests on the domestic policy responses to these shocks, rather than the shocks themselves.

The pandemic has led to a serious erosion of sovereign balance sheets over the last two years. Of the 54 sovereigns in this survey, 28 are projected to put debt to GDP on a downward path by 2024. That leaves close to half (26) EMEA EM governments for whom we project further increases in public debt levels over the next three years. SSA remains a key concern both for the size of projected government deficits this year, but also for the cost of financing them. Seven out of eight of EMEA's largest projected general government budgetary deficits for 2022 are in SSA. Furthermore, African governments are spending an increasing share of their modest revenues on interest payments. Of the 138 sovereigns we rate globally, when ranked according to the highest spending on interest as a percentage of general government revenues, six of all 23 rated African governments (including in North Africa) place in the top 10. Moreover, since 2015 the cost of servicing debt for those six African governments has increased by 118% on average, a worrying trend in terms of debt servicing costs.

The other risk to emerging EMEA economies is the monetary and external fallout from rising global interest rates and widespread inflationary pressures. Amid a tight U.S. labor market, accelerated U.S. inflation readings over the past few months, and increasingly hawkish forward guidance from the Fed, we now expect three rate hikes in 2022, with the first likely at its Federal Open Market Committee meeting in early May. Higher U.S. rates, alongside intensifying domestic inflationary pressures, are likely to force emerging EMEA central banks to hike further, despite their reluctance to do so from a growth perspective. On monetary policy trends, much of the recent focus in EMEA has been on Turkey given its deeply negative ex ante real interest rates (RIRs), which we estimate at -22% (see table 1.5). While Turkey may be an extreme case, it is not alone in this respect. Despite monetary tightening in most of EM EMEA, RIRs remain negative in the majority of the 13 EM EMEA sovereigns whose monthly net portfolio flows we track (see chart 4). For those economies that are not major hydrocarbon exporters, there will be pressure to raise rates further, with negative implications for growth and cost of funding. Of the 13 EM EMEA for which we have monthly net portfolio data, only Egypt and Ghana have maintained positive real interest rates up to the present, though high RIRs alone do not guarantee inflows.

The related trend to watch is domestic inflation. While we project inflation to remain in the double digits in only six EM EMEA sovereigns-- Uzbekistan (10.5%), Nigeria (12%), Ghana (13%), Zambia (15%), Turkey (21%), and Lebanon (30%)--and average inflation for the region to start softening as energy-price effects dissipate, there are nevertheless quite a few economies for which we are projecting a further acceleration in price pressures. These include Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Israel, Poland, and Turkey. In those economies where public subsidies on fuel and other prices are significant, the political imperative to lower energy prices will impose a fiscal cost in excess of 2% of GDP in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Iraq, Azerbaijan, Egypt, and Angola. To the extent that EMEA central banks will have to tighten further, rate hikes will weigh on growth, and push up the cost of public debt.

The other development to watch in EMEA is an increasingly tense geopolitical situation. Top of the list is the risk to economic performance (including of sanctions on secondary Russian government bond holdings, leading to forced debt sales) of an impending conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Even without the direct deployment of Russian troops into Ukraine, the possibility of interruptions to gas going to Europe through Ukraine would likely trigger another oil price/growth shock to much of EMEA, developed and emerging, with negative consequences for large hydrocarbon importers like South Africa, Turkey, and all of Eastern Europe. On top of this, on-again off-again drone attacks on Gulf Cooperation Council countries could further contribute to oil price upside.

Finally, as the Chinese economy decelerates from real GDP growth of over 8% to closer to 5% this year, EM EMEA's nonhydrocarbon commodity exporters could experience export-price volatility particularly for some industrial metals. While this process is likely going to be manageable, it could end South Africa's strong recent external performance, as well as drag on demand for CEE consumer durable exports.

Table 1

EMEA EM Sovereign Rating Score Snapshot
Issuer Sovereign foreign currency ratings Institutional assessment Economic assessment External assessment Fiscal assessment, budget performance Fiscal assessment, debt Monetary assessment

Abu Dhabi

AA/Stable/A-1+ 4 1 2 1 1 4

Albania

B+/Stable/B 5 5 4 3 5 5

Angola

CCC+/Stable/C 5 6 6 6 6

Armenia

B+/Positive/B 5 5 5 3 4 4

Azerbaijan

BB+/Stable/B 5 5 2 1 1 5

Bahrain

B+/Stable/B 5 4 4 6 6 4

Belarus

B/Negative/B 5 5 5 4 4 5

Benin

B+/Stable/B 4 5 5 3 5 5

Bosnia and Herzegovina

B/Stable/B 5 5 4 3 2 6

Botswana

BBB+/Stable/A-2 3 5 2 3 1 4

Bulgaria

BBB/Stable/A-2 4 4 2 2 1 5

Burkina Faso

B/Stable/B 5 6 5* 5 3 5

Cameroon

B-/Stable/B 6 5 5 4 3 5

Cape Verde

B-/Stable/B 4 5 6 6 6 5

Congo

CCC+/Stable/C 6 6 6 4 6 5

Congo, D.R.

CCC+/Positive/C 6 6 6 4 6

Croatia

BBB-/Stable/A-3 4 4 2 2 4

Egypt

B/Stable/B 5 5 6 6 6 4

Ethiopia

CCC/Negative/C 6* 6* 6 6 3 5

Georgia

BB/Negative/B 4 5 5 3 4 4

Ghana

B-/Stable/B 5 5 6 6 6 4

Hungary

BBB/Stable/A-2 4 2 4 4 3

Iraq

B-/Stable/B 6 6 4 6 6 5

Israel

AA-/Stable/A-1+ 4 1 1 4 4 2

Jordan

B+/Stable/B 4 6 6 3 6 4

Kazakhstan

BBB-/Stable/A-3 5 4 2 2 2 4

Kenya

B/Stable/B 4 5 6 6 6 4

Kuwait

A+/Negative/A-1 4 1 1 1 4*

Lebanon

SD/NM/SD 6 6 6 6 6 6

Montenegro

B/Stable/B 4 4 6 4 6 6

Morocco

BB+/Stable/B 4 5 3 4 4 3

Mozambique

CCC+/Stable/C 6 6 6 6 6 5

Nigeria

B-/Stable/B 5 6 6 6 5 5

North Macedonia

BB-/Stable/B 5 4 3 4 3 4

Oman

B+/Positive/B 4 5 5 6 4

Poland

A-/Stable/A-2 4 4 2 4 2 2

Qatar

AA-/Stable/A-1+ 4 1 4 1 2 4

Ras Al Khaimah

A-/Stable/A-2 4 3 2 1 1 5

Romania

BBB-/Stable/A-3 4 4 3 4 3 3

Russia

BBB-/Stable/A-3 5 5 1 4 1 3

Rwanda

B+/Negative/B 4 5 5 6 4 4

Saudi Arabia

A-/Stable/A-2 4 4 1 5 1 4

Senegal

B+/Stable/B 4 4 5 5 5 5

Serbia

BB+/Positive/B 4 4 4 3 2 4

Sharjah

BBB-/Stable/A-3 4 3 2 6 5 5

St Helena

BBB-/Stable/A-3 3 5 4 3 1 5

South Africa

BB-/Stable/B 4 5 3 6 6 2

Tajikistan

B-/Stable/B 5 6 6 4 5

Togo

B/Stable/B 5 6 6 3 3 5

Turkey

B+/Negative/B 5 4 6 4 4 4

Uganda

B/Stable/B 5 6 5 6 6 4

Ukraine

B/Stable/B 5 5 5 3 5 4

Uzbekistan

BB-/Stable/B 5 5 3 5 2 4

Zambia

SD/NM/SD 6 6 6 6 6 5
1 (%) 0.0 5.6 7.4 9.3 18.5 0.0
2 (%) 0.0 0.0 18.5 5.6 11.1 5.6
3 (%) 3.7 7.4 9.3 20.4 11.1 7.4
4 (%) 44.4 22.2 13.0 24.1 18.5 40.7
5 (%) 37.0 38.9 22.2 9.3 11.1 38.9
6 (%) 14.8 25.9 29.6 31.5 29.6 7.4
Median 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
Mean 4.6 4.7 4.1 4.1 3.8 4.4
Standard Deviation 0.8 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.9 0.9
*Deterioration since June 2021. §Improvement since June 2021. Ratings and scores are as of Dec. 31, 2021.

Table 1.5

Real Interest Rates
Real Ex Ante Policy Rate Net Portfolio Flows Q4 21 (% of full year GDP)
Turkey B+/Neg -22.1% -0.2%
Serbia BB+/Pos -6.9% -0.2%
Poland A-/Stable -6.4% -0.1%
Romania BBB-/Stable -6.2% -0.3%
Hungary BBB/Stable -5.0% -1.6%
Nigeria** B-/Stable -4.1% 1.4%
Qatar* AA-/Stable -3.6% 0.4%
South Africa BB-/Stable -1.8% -0.4%
Ukraine B/Stable -1.0% -0.1%
Saudi Arabia* A-/Stable -0.1% 0.3%
Russia BBB-/Stable 0.1% -0.1%
Ghana B-/Stable 1.9% -0.7%
Egypt** B/Stable 3.4% 0.9%
*Only tracks equity flows
**Net capital inflows including errors and omissions.
Sources: International Institute of Finance, Bank of Ghana, S&P Global Ratings.

Table 2

EMEA EM Economic Outlook
Real GDP growth (%) GG balance / GDP (%) Net GG debt / GDP (%) Current account balance / GDP (%) Narrow net ext. debt / CAR (%)
2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022
Abu Dhabi 1.2 3.3 12.4 13.2 (228.1) (240.4) N/A N/A N/A N/A
Albania 5.0 4.0 (6.9) (3.5) 76.1 75.2 (8.5) (8.4) 6.7 11.0
Angola (0.2) 2.0 3.0 1.7 90.8 84.3 6.5 4.1 151.9 157.7
Armenia 6.1 4.7 (4.1) (2.1) 53.5 51.0 (2.5) (3.7) 114.5 101.8
Azerbaijan 5.0 2.0 0.6 0.4 (43.5) (44.7) 10.4 7.2 (75.7) (84.2)
Bahrain 2.8 2.4 (7.2) (5.7) 119.8 124.1 (2.1) (4.3) (26.6) (24.0)
Belarus 2.2 (0.7) (1.9) (4.0) 29.8 36.0 (0.3) (2.1) 64.6 74.6
Benin 6.0 6.5 (6.0) (3.5) 39.5 40.1 (3.8) (3.7) 98.9 94.4
Bosnia and Herzegovina 5.5 2.0 (3.5) (1.5) 30.5 31.8 (3.0) (3.0) (1.2) (0.6)
Botswana 8.5 4.0 (4.0) (4.0) 17.4 20.2 (5.0) (3.0) (31.0) (23.2)
Bulgaria 3.9 4.3 (5.0) (2.5) 18.7 20.4 0.3 0.9 (32.6) (30.2)
Burkina Faso 7.0 5.5 (5.0) (4.6) 42.3 44.2 (0.1) (3.6) 110.5 123.6
Cameroon 3.4 4.0 (3.3) (2.8) 37.2 38.3 (3.8) (3.6) 101.3 99.7
Cape Verde 3.5 5.0 (8.5) (6.0) 131.0 128.3 (15.5) (12.0) 174.2 166.8
Congo-Brazzaville (1.5) 0.5 2.3 1.0 96.8 96.4 0.0 (3.5) 183.4 193.4
Congo, D.R. 4.5 5.5 (1.7) (1.2) 13.7 13.9 (3.2) (3.1) 37.1 34.4
Cote d'Ivoire 6.3 6.5 (5.3) (3.9) 45.1 45.8 (3.7) (3.6) 99.6 99.1
Croatia 6.8 5.0 (3.5) (2.5) 72.3 69.7 (0.3) (1.3) 19.8 19.3
Egypt 3.3 4.8 (6.5) (6.3) 77.3 75.9 (4.6) (3.2) 142.2 131.1
Ethiopia 4.0 4.0 (2.9) (3.0) 32.5 35.1 (4.3) (4.7) 208.4 250.5
Georgia 9.0 5.5 (6.9) (4.5) 52.1 53.6 (8.1) (6.0) 121.9 113.3
Ghana 4.3 4.7 (12.2) (10.4) 77.1 80.1 (3.0) (2.7) 139.4 146.0
Hungary 6.9 5.1 (7.1) (5.3) 71.8 71.4 (0.8) (1.0) 24.2 24.4
Iraq 1.0 3.0 (3.0) (6.0) 64.0 66.7 4.2 2.5 (2.4) 0.2
Israel 6.5 4.0 (5.5) (4.5) 68.4 68.5 4.5 4.4 (74.6) (71.7)
Jordan 1.5 2.1 (2.7) (1.2) 83.7 85.0 (7.9) (7.2) 68.3 73.1
Kazakhstan 3.5 3.6 (4.0) (1.8) (2.9) (1.5) (2.8) (2.6) (37.8) (35.0)
Kenya 4.6 5.4 (7.9) (7.6) 59.8 62.7 (5.5) (6.1) 237.3 252.8
Kuwait 0.8 8.0 7.1 7.5 (449.0) (440.6) 19.1 17.8 (600.8) (590.0)
Lebanon (10.0) 1.0 (5.0) (6.0) 483.8 294.2 (18.4) (20.7) (152.0) (138.4)
Montenegro 9.5 6.5 (4.0) (3.0) 72.6 68.5 (17.5) (14.5) 207.3 187.1
Morocco 5.8 3.4 (6.3) (5.7) 69.3 71.4 (3.0) (2.1) 25.8 24.5
Mozambique 2.5 4.0 (6.0) (7.0) 93.5 95.3 (24.8) (25.1) 369.7 329.5
Nigeria 2.0 2.4 (4.8) (4.3) 42.8 44.1 (0.7) (0.3) 33.9 38.4
North Macedonia 3.7 3.7 (5.7) (3.8) 54.2 56.5 (2.8) (2.6) 30.4 29.4
Oman 1.7 2.7 (4.2) (4.3) 14.9 18.1 (4.4) (3.8) 63.9 65.9
Poland 5.2 5.0 (2.8) (3.5) 50.9 51.1 (0.3) (1.9) 18.8 16.6
Qatar 2.6 4.0 9.1 9.7 (135.0) (139.1) 10.8 7.7 (85.8) (81.2)
Romania 7.0 4.7 (7.0) (5.5) 44.0 46.1 (6.0) (6.0) 39.8 41.8
Russia 4.2 2.7 0.7 1.2 5.2 4.4 7.2 5.9 (84.2) (88.3)
Rwanda 4.4 6.5 (9.0) (7.6) 68.8 72.2 (10.8) (9.9) 175.6 183.6
Saudi Arabia 2.3 3.2 (1.9) (2.7) (59.2) (53.4) 4.1 1.2 (130.2) (125.8)
Senegal 5.0 6.0 (6.3) (4.6) 61.3 61.7 (9.3) (9.1) 117.0 116.2
Serbia 7.1 4.3 (5.1) (3.9) 48.2 49.2 (4.1) (4.5) 32.6 34.2
Sharjah 4.0 2.5 (9.4) (6.9) 39.9 45.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
St Helena 0.5 2.0 0.0 0.0 (9.2) (8.8) N/A N/A N/A N/A
South Africa 4.9 2.4 (7.8) (6.9) 68.4 73.2 3.1 0.2 36.8 39.2
Tajikistan 6.0 6.1 (2.6) (2.4) 41.7 42.9 (1.1) (3.2) 66.3 77.8
Togo 4.9 5.5 (4.0) (2.5) 44.2 43.6 (2.3) (2.2) 110.0 110.3
Turkey 9.8 3.7 (2.5) (3.0) 41.9 38.1 (2.0) (1.6) 77.6 80.4
Uganda 3.4 4.0 (9.8) (8.0) 43.1 48.2 (10.0) (9.2) 132.1 138.7
Ukraine 3.3 3.5 (4.0) (3.5) 57.5 57.3 (0.6) (1.9) 87.1 81.7
Uzbekistan 6.5 5.5 (5.8) (3.5) 15.4 18.5 (6.0) (5.7) 14.4 34.2
Zambia 1.5 2.0 (9.5) (7.5) 112.9 112.1 7.0 5.1 138.2 133.9
N/A--Not applicable. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Sovereign Summaries

Abu Dhabi (AA/Stable/A-1+)

  • Analyst: trevor.cullinan@spglobal.com
  • Latest publication: (Full Analysis) Abu Dhabi, Nov. 29, 2021
Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 4
  • Economic assessment: 1
  • External assessment: 2
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 1
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 1
  • Monetary assessment: 4
Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook reflects our expectation that Abu Dhabi's fiscal position will remain strong over the next two years.

We could consider lowering the ratings if Abu Dhabi's strong government balance sheet and net external asset position deteriorate materially. If fiscal deficits or contingent liabilities caused liquid assets to drop below 100% of GDP, pressure on the ratings would develop. Downward pressure on the rating could also arise if domestic or regional events compromised political and economic stability in the emirate.

We could consider raising our ratings on Abu Dhabi if we observed further progress in institutional reforms alongside pronounced improvements in data transparency, including on fiscal assets and external data. Furthermore, measures to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy in the emirate, such as developing domestic capital markets, could be positive for the ratings.

(for the latest research update, published on March 27, 2020, click here)

Table 3

Abu Dhabi
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 76.1 71.2 76.6 91.0 97.1 89.1 101.6 100.0 95.4 95.3
GDP growth 4.9 2.6 (0.9) 1.3 1.5 (4.8) 1.2 3.3 2.2 1.9
GDP per capita growth 0.1 (1.8) (0.4) 4.9 10.4 0.2 (1.3) 1.3 (0.0) (0.3)
Current account balance/GDP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Narrow net external debt/CAR N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
GG balance/GDP 6.2 (0.4) 4.5 9.7 10.6 8.7 12.4 13.2 13.4 14.0
GG net debt/GDP (228.6) (226.7) (216.4) (202.1) (216.2) (247.4) (228.1) (240.4) (258.1) (265.2)
CPI inflation 4.3 2.0 1.6 3.3 (0.8) (2.4) 1.6 1.0 2.0 2.0
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Albania (B+/Stable/B)

  • Analyst: aarti.sakhuja@spglobal.com
  • Latest publication: (Full Analysis) Albania, Aug. 2, 2021
Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 5
  • Economic assessment: 5
  • External assessment: 4
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 3
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 5
  • Monetary assessment: 5
Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook reflects our expectation that:

  • Growth will rebound in 2021 and the economy will recover to 2019 levels by end-2021, based on our assumption that effective vaccines will be distributed by the end of this year, benefiting tourism and remittance flows;
  • The fiscal deficit, which increased sharply in 2020, will narrow from 2022, helping the government's debt relative to GDP to start declining; and
  • In the event of a protracted downturn, government borrowing from abroad will offset lost foreign exchange earnings and investment inflows and prevent foreign currency reserves from coming under pressure.

We could lower the ratings if, contrary to our expectations, the financing of Albania's external deficit becomes less secure, weighing on reserves. We could also lower the ratings if the government debt stock continues to rise, because of either higher fiscal deficits or the materialization of contingent liabilities from public-private partnerships (PPPs).

We could consider raising the ratings if the authorities implement reforms that significantly improve the business environment and management of fiscal risks, while foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows continue, and the informal economy shrinks.

(for the latest research update, published on July 1, 2020, click here)

Table 4

Albania
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 4.0 4.1 4.5 5.3 5.4 5.3 6.0 6.2 6.6 7.1
GDP growth 2.2 3.3 3.8 4.0 2.1 (4.0) 5.0 4.0 3.5 3.5
GDP per capita growth 2.6 3.3 4.0 4.3 2.7 (3.4) 5.2 4.2 3.7 3.7
Current account balance/GDP (8.6) (7.6) (7.5) (6.8) (7.9) (8.8) (8.5) (8.4) (7.7) (7.2)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 130.4 117.1 117.1 116.3 115.2 119.7 113.7 109.4 110.1 111.8
Narrow net external debt/CAR 19.7 11.8 12.2 7.3 3.4 3.6 6.7 11.0 15.3 17.9
GG balance/GDP (4.1) (1.8) (2.0) (1.6) (1.9) (6.8) (6.9) (3.5) -3 -2
GG net debt/GDP 70.3 70.2 67.1 62.8 62.3 72.6 76.1 75.2 73.8 71.5
CPI inflation 1.9 1.2 2.1 2.0 1.4 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.5 2.6
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 38.1 37.1 35.4 32.5 33.6 37.7 36.3 35.2 35.0 34.7
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Angola (CCC+/Stable/C)

Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 5
  • Economic assessment: 6
  • External assessment: 6
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 6
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 6
  • Monetary assessment: 5
Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook balances the risks associated with the still-large external funding needs against reduced near-term debt-servicing requirements following restructuring agreements with bilateral lenders.

We could lower the ratings if the government's access to external funding were to weaken, which could limit its ability to service external commercial debt, or if a deterioration in the external environment, such as lower oil prices or volumes, were to heighten external and fiscal pressure. We could also lower the ratings if the government signaled its intention to restructure its commercial debt on top of its bilateral restructuring arrangements.

We could raise the ratings if economic and fiscal reforms, supported by a sustained economic recovery, were to reduce the debt-servicing burden, stabilize the exchange rate, and increase foreign currency reserves beyond our projections.

Table 5

Angola
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 4.2 3.5 4.1 3.3 2.6 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3
GDP growth 0.9 (3.5) 0.4 -2 (0.6) (5.1) (0.2) 2.0 2.5 2.8
GDP per capita growth (2.5) (6.7) (2.8) (5.3) (3.8) (8.1) (3.4) (1.3) (0.8) (0.5)
Current account balance/GDP (8.8) (3.1) (0.5) 7.3 6.1 1.5 6.5 4.1 2.1 0.9
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 98.7 90.9 84.5 77.6 87.0 98.5 97.9 98.7 107.2 108.4
Narrow net external debt/CAR 35.3 86.5 84.2 80.0 103.1 194.8 151.9 157.7 169.9 178.7
GG balance/GDP (2.9) (3.8) (6.3) 2.1 0.6 (1.9) 3.0 1.7 0.7 0.7
GG net debt/GDP 24.2 50.0 59.1 81.4 95.3 117.0 90.8 84.3 83.3 79.8
CPI inflation 5.5 30.7 29.8 19.6 17.1 22.3 25.0 16.0 10.0 10.0
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 24.8 20.5 16.5 14.3 14.7 12.7 10.5 10.6 11.0 11.5
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Armenia (B+/Positive /B)

Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 5
  • Economic assessment: 5
  • External assessment: 5
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 3
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 4
  • Monetary assessment: 4
Outlook: Positive

The positive outlook reflects Armenia's prospects for a continued rapid economic expansion over the next two-to-three years. It also reflects the potential for faster-than-anticipated reduction in external leverage as well as stronger fiscal performance, beyond our expectations.

We could raise the ratings on Armenia over the next 12 months if it sustained its strong economic performance with no major external headwinds or pandemic-related challenges clouding the medium-term growth prospects alongside sustained structural reform momentum. An upgrade could also follow a larger-than-expected reduction in external debt.

We could revise the outlook to stable if GDP growth fails to pick up, contrary to our expectations, or if the external deleveraging trend reverses.

Table 6

Armenia
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 3.5 3.5 3.9 4.2 4.6 4.3 4.6 5.2 5.6 6.0
GDP growth 3.2 0.2 7.5 5.2 7.6 (7.4) 6.1 4.7 3.9 3.5
GDP per capita growth 3.4 0.6 8.0 5.7 7.9 (7.2) 6.0 5.1 4.3 3.9
Current account balance/GDP (2.7) (1.0) (1.5) (7.0) (7.4) (3.8) (2.5) (3.7) (3.9) (3.9)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 122.3 114.8 112.7 116.8 119.1 118.3 119.3 111.8 110.1 109.8
Narrow net external debt/CAR 108.2 103.9 90.0 82.2 79.4 129.9 114.5 101.8 99.4 98.3
GG balance/GDP (4.8) (5.5) (4.8) (1.6) (0.8) (5.1) (4.1) (2.1) (2.0) (1.9)
GG net debt/GDP 40.2 47.0 50.0 47.4 44.3 58.3 53.5 51.0 49.5 48.2
CPI inflation 3.7 (1.4) 1.1 2.5 1.3 1.2 7.8 4.9 4.3 4.0
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 44.8 47.6 50.4 54.2 59.1 71.8 67.0 66.8 67.2 67.9
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Azerbaijan (BB+/Stable /B)

  • Analyst: maxim.rybnikov@spglobal.com
  • Latest publication: Azerbaijan Ratings Affirmed At 'BB+'; Outlook Stable, Jan. 21, 2022
Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 5
  • Economic assessment: 5
  • External assessment: 2
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 1
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 1
  • Monetary assessment: 5
Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook indicates that we expect the ceasefire agreement between Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Russia will continue to broadly hold, while favorable hydrocarbon prices and rising gas exports will support Azerbaijan's fiscal and balance of payments positions over the next 12 months.

We could lower the ratings if Azerbaijan's fiscal balances weakened more than we project over the medium term. This could happen, for example, because of higher-than-expected government capital expenditure or a substantial decline in hydrocarbon revenue; for instance, because ageing oil fields result in oil production declining faster than expected. Reduced hydrocarbon revenue could additionally weigh on Azerbaijan's broader economic prospects, with real per capita GDP growth falling further below that of peers at a similar level of economic development. Pressure on the ratings could also build if military confrontation with Armenia escalated sharply again, but this is not our baseline scenario.

Conversely, we could consider an upgrade if external surpluses were significantly higher than we expect, resulting in sustained external asset accumulation. Ratings upside could also build if the government implements reforms addressing some of Azerbaijan's structural impediments, including constraints to monetary policy effectiveness stemming from elevated resident deposit dollarization and a still-weak domestic banking system.

Table 6

Azerbaijan
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 5.5 3.9 4.2 4.8 4.8 4.2 5.4 5.4 5.2 5.3
GDP growth 1.1 (3.1) 0.1 1.4 2.5 (4.3) 5.0 2.0 1.5 1.5
GDP per capita growth (0.1) (4.2) (1.0) 0.5 1.6 (5.1) 4.5 1.2 0.7 0.7
Current account balance/GDP (0.4) (3.6) 4.1 12.8 9.1 (0.5) 10.4 7.2 1.4 0.8
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 83.4 112.7 105.6 85.3 88.2 100.9 83.6 83.5 90.6 90.9
Narrow net external debt/CAR (85.9) (58.5) (62.4) (58.2) (76.9) (101.2) (75.7) (84.2) (96.4) (94.2)
GG balance/GDP (4.0) 3.2 0.7 8.7 10.8 (4.1) 0.6 0.4 (1.6) (1.6)
GG net debt/GDP (68.9) (50.6) (41.0) (42.8) (48.3) (53.4) (43.5) (44.7) (46.1) (44.1)
CPI inflation 4.0 12.4 12.9 2.3 2.6 2.8 6.0 4.5 3.0 3.0
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 45.3 29.2 16.2 16.3 18.4 20.6 18.0 18.9 20.6 20.9
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Bahrain (B+/Stable/B)

Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 5
  • Economic assessment: 4
  • External assessment: 4
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 6
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 6
  • Monetary assessment: 4
Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook indicates we expect the government to implement measures to reduce the budget deficit and benefit from support from other GCC sovereigns if needed, in addition to the direct fiscal support already pledged.

We could lower the ratings over the next year if the government's budgetary consolidation measures prove insufficient to constrain its net debt and debt-servicing burden. We could also lower the ratings if foreign currency reserves decline, limiting the government's ability to service external debt in a timely manner and weighing on monetary policy effectiveness. In addition, the ratings could come under pressure if Bahrain's large banking system faces a significant withdrawal of short-term external financing.

Although unlikely over the next year, we could raise the ratings if the government's budgetary position improved significantly beyond our expectations.

Table 8

Bahrain
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 22.7 22.6 23.6 25.1 25.9 23.5 25.1 25.4 25.8 26.3
GDP growth 2.5 3.6 4.3 1.7 2.0 (5.1) 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.4
GDP per capita growth (1.7) (0.3) (1.1) 1.6 3.3 (4.4) 1.8 0.9 0.9 0.9
Current account balance/GDP (2.4) (4.6) (4.1) (6.5) (2.1) (9.4) (2.1) (4.3) (4.7) (4.7)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 307.4 362.0 352.5 329.6 367.2 386.8 350.9 413.6 381.5 361.9
Narrow net external debt/CAR (51.3) (47.9) (39.7) (18.4) (34.6) (30.8) (26.6) (24.0) (21.1) (17.9)
GG balance/GDP -13 (13.5) (10.0) (6.3) (4.7) (12.9) (7.2) (5.7) (4.4) (3.8)
GG net debt/GDP 42.1 58.1 65.6 75.2 83.0 115.8 119.8 124.1 126.9 128.5
CPI inflation 1.9 2.8 1.4 2.1 1.0 (2.3) 0.5 2.0 2.0 2.0
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 64.7 64.1 62.7 65.4 65.2 77.3 74.5 75.3 76.1 76.5
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Belarus (B/Negative/B)

Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 5
  • Economic assessment: 5
  • External assessment: 5
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 4
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 4
  • Monetary assessment: 5
Outlook: Negative

The negative outlook on Belarus indicates the risk that international sanctions and the protracted political crisis could weigh on the country's economic, balance-of-payments, and fiscal performance more than we expect over the next 12 months. The outlook also factors in the possibility that timely financial support to Belarus from Russia could become less predictable, perhaps due to stricter conditions that Belarus might find difficult to meet in some instances.

We could lower the ratings on Belarus if we perceive that existing and possible new international sanctions will likely result in more severe implications for its macroeconomic outlook than we project. Rating downside could also emerge if timely financial support from Russia proves inadequate or less forthcoming. Both scenarios would pressure the country's international reserves and weaken the government's ability to meet its upcoming public debt redemptions.

We could revise the outlook to stable if the economy adjusts to the international sanctions regime faster than we anticipate, substantially mitigating the adverse implications for the economy and the balance of payments. A stable outlook could also be supported if lingering political uncertainty is replaced by a clear policy direction that supports Belarus' economic, fiscal, and financial sector stability. In addition, a positive rating action could follow a substantial improvement in the country's international reserve position.

Table 9

Belarus
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 6.0 5.0 5.8 6.4 6.8 6.4 6.9 6.8 7.0 7.2
GDP growth (3.8) (2.5) 2.5 3.1 1.5 (1.0) 2.2 (0.7) 2.3 2.1
GDP per capita growth (3.9) (2.7) 2.5 3.3 1.7 (0.8) 2.9 (0.7) 2.3 2.1
Current account balance/GDP (3.2) (3.4) (1.7) 0.0 (1.9) (0.4) (0.3) (2.1) (1.8) (2.0)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 163.3 163.6 143.4 128.5 125.9 123.0 122.8 125.0 126.1 129.4
Narrow net external debt/CAR 87.8 89.5 72.7 60.0 59.4 77.2 64.6 74.6 76.4 77.6
GG balance/GDP 1.4 1.5 3.0 4.0 2.4 (1.7) (1.9) (4.0) (1.0) 0.0
GG net debt/GDP 30.1 33.1 30.9 27.2 23.3 30.5 29.8 36.0 36.6 36.8
CPI inflation 13.5 11.8 6.0 4.9 5.6 5.5 9.7 8.7 5.0 5.0
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 45.0 40.8 38.9 38.3 38.3 43.0 42.9 43.6 43.5 43.5
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Benin (B+/Stable/B)

  • Analyst: sebastien.boreux@spglobal.com
  • Latest publication: (Full Analysis) Benin, Oct. 25, 2021
Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 4
  • Economic assessment: 5
  • External assessment: 5
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 3
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 5
  • Monetary assessment: 5
Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook indicates that we expect Benin's credit metrics can withstand the shock to public finances and economic activity from COVID-19. We anticipate a strong economic rebound will resume starting this year, supported by continued reform momentum.

We could lower the ratings if budgetary performance deteriorates and reforms lag, leading to significantly weaker real GDP growth rates than we currently forecast. This could occur for example if COVID-19's impact is more protracted than we anticipate.

Benin's creditworthiness could also deteriorate if pressures on the West African CFA franc (XOF)-to-euro exchange rate appear. A devaluation--which we do not expect--would immediately increase government debt to GDP across the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) and weigh considerably on member states' fiscal performance.

We could raise the ratings if, following the pandemic, reforms boost economic growth beyond our forecast, reflecting a higher component of private-sector investment and activity; and net government debt as a share of GDP decreases significantly beyond our projections.

(for the latest research update, published on June 20, 2020, click here)

Table 10

Benin
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6
GDP growth 1.8 3.3 5.7 6.7 6.9 3.9 6.0 6.5 6.5 6.8
GDP per capita growth (1.1) 0.4 2.7 3.7 3.9 1.0 3.1 3.6 3.6 3.9
Current account balance/GDP (6.0) (3.0) (4.2) (4.6) (4.0) (4.4) (3.8) (3.7) (3.4) (3.3)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 135.1 121.5 137.7 121.4 140.8 128.0 130.9 125.7 118.7 112.6
Narrow net external debt/CAR 32.4 50.1 49.5 79.2 66.3 110.6 98.9 94.4 85.9 78.7
GG balance/GDP (5.6) (4.3) (4.2) (2.9) (0.5) (4.7) (6.0) (3.5) (2.8) (2.3)
GG net debt/GDP 22.1 28.9 32.8 32.4 31.2 37.0 39.5 40.1 39.8 39.0
CPI inflation 0.3 (0.6) 1.6 0.9 (0.9) 3.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 18.5 18.6 18.0 18.0 19.5 17.4 17.0 16.5 16.0 15.5
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Bosnia and Herzegovina (B/Stable/B)

Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 5
  • Economic assessment: 5
  • External assessment: 4
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 3
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 2
  • Monetary assessment: 6
Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook takes into account the risks stemming from BiH's complex and confrontational political dynamics. Given the country's low vaccination rate, it also incorporates the potential for further waves of COVID-19 to damage the economy and public finances over the next 12 months. These risks are balanced against the manageable macroeconomic impact of the pandemic so far and BiH's still-contained government debt burden, which gives it a measure of fiscal policy space.

We could lower the ratings on BiH if the budgetary costs of the pandemic prove materially higher than we currently project. We could also lower the ratings if domestic political confrontation escalated further, undermining economic policy and interfering with established debt servicing mechanisms.

We could raise the ratings on BiH if domestic policy settings improved and we saw a move toward less-confrontational and more consensus-based politics, oriented to structural reforms. This could, in turn, underpin a stronger medium-term economic performance than we currently expect.

Table 11

Bosnia and Herzegovina
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 5.0 5.3 5.7 6.3 6.3 6.3 7.0 7.1 7.6 8.1
GDP growth 4.1 3.7 3.8 3.4 2.8 (3.2) 5.5 2.0 2.8 2.8
GDP per capita growth 5.7 5.1 4.9 4.2 3.5 (2.6) 6.0 2.5 3.3 3.3
Current account balance/GDP (4.8) (4.5) (4.6) (3.1) (2.7) (3.6) (3.0) (3.0) (2.8) (2.6)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 140.3 133.7 128.8 126.6 128.0 132.7 127.1 125.4 127.6 130.5
Narrow net external debt/CAR 39.6 33.1 23.1 14.1 7.4 2.2 (1.2) (0.6) 0.0 0.6
GG balance/GDP 0.6 1.2 2.4 2.1 1.9 (5.1) (3.5) (1.5) (0.5) 0.0
GG net debt/GDP 34.8 33.4 28.7 26.3 24.2 27.7 30.5 31.8 31.9 31.4
CPI inflation (1.0) (1.1) 1.2 1.4 0.6 (1.6) 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 50.7 50.4 51.5 51.4 52.3 52.4 51.1 51.6 50.7 49.8
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Botswana (BBB+/Negative/A-2)

Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 3
  • Economic assessment: 5
  • External assessment: 2
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 3
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 1
  • Monetary assessment: 4
Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook reflects our expectation that Botswana's economic rebound, supported by a strong diamond sector recovery, will lead to a material improvement of the fiscal and external performance over the next two years.

We could lower our ratings on Botswana if fiscal or external performance were weaker than our forecasts. This could happen, for instance, if recovery of upstream and downstream diamond segments was delayed or short-lived because of further fallout from the pandemic.

We could raise the ratings if Botswana manages to rebuild its fiscal and external buffers significantly, alongside a diversification of its export base. This would help shield the economy from future external shocks.

Table 12

Botswana
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 6.4 7.0 7.3 7.5 7.2 6.4 7.6 7.8 8.1 8.4
GDP growth (5.7) 7.0 4.0 4.0 3.0 (8.5) 8.5 4.0 4.0 4.0
GDP per capita growth (7.1) 5.1 1.9 1.7 0.8 (10.4) 6.4 2.0 2.0 2.0
Current account balance/GDP 2.2 8.0 5.8 0.7 (7.1) (10.6) (5.0) (3.0) 0.7 1.8
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 54.7 53.0 54.8 60.4 68.3 71.5 76.1 77.0 74.5 71.7
Narrow net external debt/CAR (62.6) (52.8) (63.9) (52.8) (53.0) (51.4) (31.0) (23.2) (22.3) (22.2)
GG balance/GDP (5.1) 0.7 (1.2) (5.2) (6.2) (8.4) (4.0) (4.0) (1.0) 1.0
GG net debt/GDP (8.2) (3.5) (5.3) (2.3) 3.3 15.4 17.4 20.2 19.9 17.6
CPI inflation 3.0 2.8 3.3 3.2 2.8 1.9 6.9 5.5 4.5 4.0
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 37.4 32.6 34.0 35.5 37.1 40.3 37.1 37.1 37.4 37.7
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Bulgaria (BBB/Stable/A-2)

  • Analyst: niklas.steinert@spglobal.com
  • Latest publication: (Full Analysis) Bulgaria, Nov. 29, 2021
Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 4
  • Economic assessment: 4
  • External assessment: 2
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 2
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 1
  • Monetary assessment: 5
Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook indicates that we expect Bulgaria's economic recovery to progress over the next two years, backed by further absorption of additional EU funds. Although several fiscal support measures will extend into 2022, we expect fiscal balances to narrow over the next years, which will keep public debt low. The stable outlook also signifies that we anticipate that the economy will not incur any external or financial sector imbalances.

We could lower the ratings if the economic recovery is significantly delayed, for example, because the pandemic's direct effects prove more long-lasting than we currently expect. This would likely result in protracted fiscal consolidation and continuously rising net public debt over the next few years. Although unlikely over the medium term, we could also lower the ratings if we observe the emergence of imbalances in Bulgaria's financial sector.

We could raise the ratings if Bulgaria's economic recovery coincides with quicker fiscal consolidation or stronger external performance than we currently project. In the long term, we could raise the ratings on Bulgaria in the course of its accession to the eurozone.

(for the latest research update, published on Nov. 27, 2020, click here)

Table 13

Bulgaria
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 7.1 7.5 8.3 9.4 9.8 10.1 11.3 11.8 12.7 13.6
GDP growth 3.4 3.0 2.8 2.7 4.0 (4.4) 3.9 4.3 3.8 3.3
GDP per capita growth 4.1 3.7 3.5 3.4 4.8 (3.7) 4.4 4.8 4.3 3.8
Current account balance/GDP 0.0 3.1 3.3 1.0 1.9 (0.3) 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.8
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 118.6 105.3 98.8 102.7 102.2 105.8 104.3 108.3 109.9 110.3
Narrow net external debt/CAR (5.2) (12.9) (19.3) (23.3) (26.7) (40.9) (32.6) (30.2) (29.9) (29.9)
GG balance/GDP (1.9) 0.3 1.6 1.7 2.1 (4.0) (5.0) (2.5) (1.7) (1.0)
GG net debt/GDP 18.0 16.8 14.5 12.5 11.7 16.9 18.7 20.4 21.3 21.6
CPI inflation (1.1) (1.3) 1.2 2.6 2.5 1.2 3.6 2.4 1.9 1.8
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 56.8 54.3 52.7 53.6 53.7 56.4 56.5 56.0 55.5 55.3
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Burkina Faso (B/Stable/B)

Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 5
  • Economic assessment: 6
  • External assessment: 5
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 5
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 3
  • Monetary assessment: 5
Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook reflects our expectation that stronger economic activity and budgetary reforms will lead to declining budget deficits. We also assume that the security crisis in the Sahel region will have only a moderate impact on Burkina Faso's economic and budgetary performance over 2021-2024.

The rating could come under pressure if security risks hindered the performance of the country's main export industries, thus significantly and adversely impacting the economic growth prospects or reversing the institutional progress seen since 2015.

We could also lower the rating if we saw pronounced pressure on West African Economic and Monetary Union's (WAEMU's) international reserves and on the exchange rate of the West African CFA franc (XOF) to the euro.

We could raise the rating if Burkina Faso's fiscal policy resulted in a larger-than-currently projected reduction in budget deficits. Efforts to diversify the export base should lead to sustainably higher current account receipts, limiting external financing needs.

Table 14

Burkina Faso
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0
GDP growth 3.9 6.0 6.2 6.6 5.8 1.9 7.0 5.5 6.5 5.0
GDP per capita growth 1.0 3.1 2.9 3.4 1.5 (2.2) 2.9 1.4 2.4 1.0
Current account balance/GDP (7.6) (6.1) (6.4) (4.2) (3.3) 3.2 (0.1) (3.6) (4.3) (4.5)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 131.8 244.2 202.9 189.7 150.3 128.7 133.1 131.2 132.4 134.5
Narrow net external debt/CAR 338.0 249.0 251.4 152.6 162.3 133.0 110.5 123.6 127.8 132.5
GG balance/GDP (1.9) (3.3) (6.9) (4.3) (3.2) (5.2) (5.0) (4.6) (3.8) (3.1)
GG net debt/GDP 25.9 25.5 27.3 32.6 36.7 39.8 42.3 44.2 44.8 44.9
CPI inflation 0.7 0.4 1.5 2.0 (3.2) 1.9 3.0 2.6 2.5 2.5
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 28.8 28.1 28.9 30.1 30.8 31.6 30.8 31.1 31.5 32.3
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Cameroon (B-/Stable/B)

Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 6
  • Economic assessment: 5
  • External assessment: 5
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 4
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 3
  • Monetary assessment: 5
Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook balances macroeconomic risks from COVID-19, volatile terms of trade, and the fragile security situation against the potential for stronger balance of payments performance on fiscal consolidation efforts aided by the IMF arrangement.

We would consider raising our ratings if Cameroon's fiscal policies support declining government deficits, external financing needs ease, or external leverage decreases beyond our expectations. Alternatively, we could raise the ratings if the country's security threats recede durably.

We could lower our ratings if external imbalances and fiscal deficits increase beyond our expectations, leading to a sustained decline in foreign exchange reserves and casting doubt on Cameroon's ability to service its debt.

Table 15

Cameroon
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8
GDP growth 5.7 4.5 3.5 4.0 3.5 0.5 3.4 4.0 4.4 4.8
GDP per capita growth 2.9 1.8 0.9 1.3 0.8 (2.0) 0.9 1.5 1.9 2.3
Current account balance/GDP (3.6) (3.1) (3.3) (3.4) (4.3) (3.7) (3.8) (3.6) (4.2) (4.2)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 97.7 89.6 103.5 102.3 103.6 105.8 105.1 98.7 99.6 99.8
Narrow net external debt/CAR 36.2 59.4 81.7 88.5 94.3 127.8 101.3 99.7 107.3 107.2
GG balance/GDP (4.3) (5.9) (4.7) (2.5) (3.2) (3.2) (3.3) (2.8) (2.4) (1.9)
GG net debt/GDP 18.9 22.6 23.5 28.0 32.5 35.6 37.2 38.3 38.8 38.6
CPI inflation 2.7 0.9 0.6 1.1 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 17.5 17.8 17.0 18.2 17.5 17.5 17.6 17.6 17.5 17.4
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Cape Verde (B-/Stable/B)

  • Analyst: samuel.tileray@spglobal.com
  • Latest publication: (Full Analysis) Cape Verde, Aug. 23, 2021
Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 4
  • Economic assessment: 5
  • External assessment: 6
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 6
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 6
  • Monetary assessment: 5
Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook balances our expectation of a gradual economic recovery and the availability of supportive foreign-donor grants and loan facilities, against the risk of lower medium-term economic growth prospects and rising financing and external pressures as a result of the pandemic.

We could lower the ratings if Cape Verde's fiscal outcomes worsened substantially relative to our expectations. This could occur if the tourism and aviation sectors failed to recover sustainably. It could also be due to contingent liabilities, for example, from SOEs or the private sector, crystallizing on the government's balance sheet and raising the risk of nonpayment of government-guaranteed debt.

We could raise the ratings if Cape Verde's balance-of-payment outcomes strengthened significantly, limiting the need to borrow externally, and allowing foreign-exchange reserves to accumulate. We could also raise the ratings if the country's budgetary performance improved, bringing the government debt-to-GDP ratio onto a discernible downward path over the medium term.

(for the latest research update, published on Feb. 19, 2021, click here)

Table 16

Cape Verde
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.6 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.9
GDP growth 1.0 4.7 3.7 4.5 5.7 (14.8) 3.5 5.0 4.7 5.5
GDP per capita growth (0.2) 3.4 2.5 3.3 4.5 (15.7) 2.4 3.9 3.6 4.4
Current account balance/GDP (3.2) (3.9) (7.9) (5.1) 0.2 (16.0) (15.5) (12.0) (8.5) (4.0)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 145.5 135.8 137.6 137.3 133.0 179.4 200.5 183.6 174.4 156.4
Narrow net external debt/CAR 115.1 96.7 109.4 105.0 94.8 192.5 174.2 166.8 150.9 127.0
GG balance/GDP (4.0) (3.5) (3.1) (2.7) (1.8) (9.1) (8.5) (6.0) (4.5) (2.0)
GG net debt/GDP 106.0 105.4 104.2 107.2 101.6 128.2 131.0 128.3 124.8 117.8
CPI inflation 0.1 (1.4) 0.8 1.3 1.1 0.6 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.8
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 63.6 63.1 64.6 62.8 61.3 76.0 75.6 73.4 71.5 69.1
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Congo-Brazzaville (CCC+/Stable/C)

  • Analyst: sebastien.boreux@spglobal.com
  • Latest publication: (Full Analysis) Congo-Brazzaville, Sept. 6, 2021
Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 6
  • Economic assessment: 6
  • External assessment: 6
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 4
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 6
  • Monetary assessment: 5
Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook balances our expectation of higher oil prices--although declining in the next few years--and volumes against ongoing institutional risks, high general government debt, and very limited financial buffers.

We could lower the ratings if the situation deteriorates beyond our expectations. This could occur if the COVID-19 pandemic had a more protracted negative effect on Congo-Brazzaville's economy or oil prices were to be lower than envisaged, further pressuring the country's public finances and external position.

We could raise our ratings if the government's fiscal position improves and financial buffers, such as government assets or international reserves at the central bank, increase significantly.

(for the latest research update, published on Sept. 4, 2020, click here)

Table 17

Congo
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 2.5 2.1 2.2 2.6 2.3 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9
GDP growth (3.2) (10.2) (4.6) (6.2) (3.5) (7.8) (1.5) 0.5 1.5 2.0
GDP per capita growth (5.6) (12.4) (7.1) (8.6) (6.0) (10.1) -4 (2.1) (1.1) (0.6)
Current account balance/GDP (38.7) (47.9) (2.8) 11.9 7.2 (3.7) 0.0 (3.5) (4.3) (3.6)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 106.1 171.9 131.1 107.4 117.6 141.2 134.7 131.7 130.1 124.6
Narrow net external debt/CAR 91.0 199.9 162.9 100.8 115.2 238.9 183.4 193.4 185.4 165.4
GG balance/GDP (8.5) (6.6) (3.7) 5.5 6.7 1.7 2.3 1.0 1.0 1.0
GG net debt/GDP 29.0 69.5 87.4 74.3 81.8 101.7 96.8 96.4 93.5 89.4
CPI inflation 3.2 3.2 0.5 1.2 0.3 1.8 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.5
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 17.3 20.9 19.1 15.4 15.4 22.1 21.4 22.1 22.6 22.9
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Congo (Democratic Republic of) (CCC+/Positive/C)

Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 6
  • Economic assessment: 6
  • External assessment: 6
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 4
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 1
  • Monetary assessment: 6
Outlook: Positive

The positive outlook reflects our view that, following the severe economic shock caused by COVID-19 in 2020, the DRC's external position and growth performance are set to improve, notably reflecting the IMF's approval of a $1.5 billion three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF). Subsiding domestic tensions should also enable the government to implement IMF-backed reforms, enhancing the country's debt-servicing capacity.

We could raise the ratings if, following the pandemic, the government manages to materially reduce external vulnerabilities, boost foreign currency buffers, and pay off limited commercial debt on time and in full.

Alternatively, we could revise the outlook to stable if budgetary and external tensions increase and foreign exchange reserves decline. This could occur if COVID-19 impacts persist for longer than we anticipate, the current outbreaks of other infectious diseases hurt the economy, or if there's a sharp drop in the prices of key exports. Moreover, an outlook revision to stable could happen if political or security tensions escalate, threatening the DRC's already-weak institutions, fragile economy, and capacity to implement the government's ambitious reform plan.

Table 18

Congo, D.R.
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7
GDP growth 6.9 2.4 3.7 5.8 4.4 1.7 4.5 5.5 6.0 6.5
GDP per capita growth 3.4 (0.9) 0.4 2.5 1.1 (1.5) 1.3 2.2 2.7 3.2
Current account balance/GDP (3.9) (4.1) (3.3) (3.6) (3.4) (2.3) (3.2) (3.1) (3.0) (2.7)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 103.9 106.3 119.0 115.7 118.5 112.2 119.6 115.4 112.2 109.3
Narrow net external debt/CAR 18.9 40.9 37.9 32.3 40.9 36.6 37.1 34.4 32.3 29.4
GG balance/GDP (0.3) (1.1) 0.3 (0.1) (0.6) (1.0) (1.7) (1.2) (1.0) (0.9)
GG net debt/GDP 11.2 14.1 14.1 10.5 11.5 13.0 13.7 13.9 13.9 13.9
CPI inflation 0.7 2.9 33.9 33.2 4.7 15.8 9.0 7.0 5.0 5.0
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 6.5 7.8 5.8 6.4 7.2 8.5 8.2 8.0 7.9 7.8
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Cote d'Ivoire (BB-/Stable/B)

  • Analyst: sebastien.boreux@spglobal.com
  • Latest Publication: (Full Analysis) Cote d'Ivoire, Dec. 6, 2021
Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 4
  • Economic assessment: 4
  • External assessment: 4
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 4
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 5
  • Monetary assessment: 5
Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook reflects the balance between our expectations of strong economic growth, underpinned by improvement in policymaking that could support a decline in the twin deficits in coming years, and the risk of budgetary slippage and continued sociopolitical tension.

The ratings could come under pressure if budget deficits do not recede as we expect or we see a significant rise in sociopolitical tensions that would hinder economic stability.

Conversely, we could raise the ratings if Cote d'Ivoire's budgetary position improves by significantly more than we currently expect, especially if this is because of higher government revenue, or if external financing needs decline more than we anticipate.

(for the latest research update, published on July 6, 2021, click here)

Table 19

Cote d'Ivoire
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.0
GDP growth 8.8 7.2 7.4 6.9 6.2 2.0 6.3 6.5 6.8 6.8
GDP per capita growth 6.1 4.5 4.7 4.2 3.6 (0.6) 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.1
Current account balance/GDP (0.4) (0.9) (2.0) (3.9) (2.3) (3.7) (3.7) (3.6) (3.4) (3.2)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 95.7 101.2 103.1 109.8 108.5 116.3 99.6 98.3 97.6 96.5
Narrow net external debt/CAR 90.3 64.9 75.5 115.5 103.4 110.0 99.6 99.1 95.3 91.2
GG balance/GDP (2.0) (2.7) (2.7) (2.6) (2.3) (5.6) (5.3) (3.9) (3.0) (3.0)
GG net debt/GDP 26.0 28.2 29.5 32.1 35.0 42.0 45.1 45.8 45.4 44.9
CPI inflation 1.3 0.7 0.7 0.4 (1.1) 2.4 2.5 1.6 1.5 1.5
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 17.0 18.1 20.0 20.0 20.2 21.7 22.3 22.9 23.4 23.9
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Croatia (BBB-/Stable/A-3)

Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 4
  • Economic assessment: 4
  • External assessment: 2
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 2
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 4
  • Monetary assessment: 4
Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook indicates that we expect Croatia's strong economic recovery prospects, combined with its government's commitment to reform, to help it gradually rebuild the fiscal space it lost in the aftermath of the pandemic. The stable outlook also assumes that vaccine distribution in Croatia will progress and continue to support activity in the country's hospitality industry.

We could raise the ratings if Croatia's economy stabilized and the medium-term growth trajectory strengthened so that the country's wealth levels improved notably. In this scenario, the government would make effective and timely use of its EU funds allocation and move forward with its fiscal consolidation agenda. In the longer term, all else being equal, the country's accession to the eurozone would also benefit its credit quality.

We could consider a downgrade if Croatia's economic rebound proved underwhelming; it demonstrated an institutional inability to absorb EU financing for investments; or the pace of vaccination slowed, putting its service sector at risk from unchecked virus variants.

Table 20

Croatia
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 11.9 12.5 13.6 15.2 15.3 14.1 16.4 17.2 18.3 19.4
GDP growth 2.5 3.5 3.4 2.9 3.5 (8.1) 6.8 5.0 3.5 3.0
GDP per capita growth 3.4 4.3 4.7 3.8 4.1 (7.7) 7.0 5.2 3.5 2.8
Current account balance/GDP 3.4 2.4 3.9 1.7 2.9 0.1 (0.3) (1.3) (1.3) (1.4)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 101.5 99.5 93.1 91.4 87.6 84.4 85.0 84.0 85.3 86.5
Narrow net external debt/CAR 90.5 70.5 57.3 39.3 21.2 23.8 19.8 19.3 18.5 17.7
GG balance/GDP (3.4) (0.9) 0.8 0.2 0.3 (7.4) (3.5) (2.5) (2.0) (1.5)
GG net debt/GDP 75.1 73.6 70.5 67.6 63.7 76.9 72.3 69.7 68.1 66.3
CPI inflation (0.5) (1.1) 1.1 1.5 0.8 0.1 3.9 2.2 1.8 2.0
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 66.5 62.0 58.2 56.5 55.1 61.8 58.2 56.2 55.4 54.9
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Egypt (B/Stable/B)

  • Analyst: zahabia.gupta@spglobal.com
  • Latest publication: (Full Analysis) Egypt, Oct. 25, 2021
Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 5
  • Economic assessment: 5
  • External assessment: 6
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 6
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 6
  • Monetary assessment: 4
Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook reflects our expectation that the pressures on external and government debt metrics will be temporary and gradually decline from 2022, supported by growth in GDP and current account receipts (CARs).

We could consider a negative rating action if the COVID-19 pandemic's impact on Egypt's external position and economic activity is more severe or prolonged than expected, resulting in a substantial decline in foreign exchange reserves and reduced ability to service debt and interest payments. Rating pressure could also emerge if fiscal slippages, higher borrowing costs, or pronounced currency depreciation prevent Egypt's government debt-to-GDP ratio from declining after 2021.

We could consider a positive rating action over the medium term if Egypt's economic expansion significantly outperforms our forecasts, or if the reform program materially narrows government and external financing needs, reducing debt and indicating a track record of stronger governance.

(for the latest research update, published on May 7, 2021, click here)

Table 21

Egypt
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 3.7 3.7 2.5 2.6 3.1 3.6 3.9 4.3 4.7 5.1
GDP growth 4.4 4.4 4.2 5.3 5.6 3.6 3.3 4.8 5.4 5.6
GDP per capita growth 1.8 2.1 (0.4) 3.3 4.5 1.0 1.3 2.8 3.3 3.5
Current account balance/GDP (3.7) (6.0) (6.1) (2.4) (3.6) (3.1) (4.6) (3.2) (2.8) (2.7)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 110.4 117.8 121.6 112.8 113.9 114.6 125.5 131.0 127.5 129.0
Narrow net external debt/CAR 26.9 58.9 66.6 68.1 78.9 104.8 142.2 131.1 127.1 127.0
GG balance/GDP (11.6) (13.7) (10.6) (9.6) (8.0) (7.0) (6.5) (6.3) (6.0) (5.8)
GG net debt/GDP 78.7 84.7 88.7 81.6 75.0 77.3 77.3 75.9 74.2 72.3
CPI inflation 11.0 10.2 23.3 21.6 13.9 5.7 4.5 6.0 6.0 6.0
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 28.2 29.8 32.7 28.1 26.0 27.6 30.0 30.3 30.9 31.5
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Ethiopia (CCC/Negative/C)

Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 6
  • Economic assessment: 6
  • External assessment: 6
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 6
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 3
  • Monetary assessment: 5
Outlook: Negative

The negative outlook reflects the risk to Ethiopia's creditworthiness from heightened external and political pressures tied to the ongoing conflict. It also captures the risk that commercial creditors could be included as part of the government's debt-restructuring plans under the G20 Common Framework.

We could lower the ratings over the next six to 12 months if ongoing political turbulence and reduced financial support places further strain on Ethiopia's external debt repayment capacity, or if the government signals its intention not to service interest payments on its upcoming commercial obligations, including the Eurobond payment due Dec. 11, 2021.

We would lower the ratings to 'SD' (selective default) should the government undertake a debt restructuring with private creditors that we would consider a distressed debt exchange based on our criteria.

We could revise the outlook to stable if political tensions recede and we believe that Ethiopia's commercial obligations will not be included in any upcoming debt restructuring agreement, allowing donor funding to resume and external pressures to subside.

Table 22

Ethiopia
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9
GDP growth 10.4 8.0 10.1 7.7 9.0 6.1 4.0 4.0 5.0 5.5
GDP per capita growth 7.8 5.5 7.5 5.3 6.7 3.9 1.9 1.8 2.7 3.2
Current account balance/GDP (13.5) (11.0) (9.9) (7.9) (7.4) (5.5) (4.3) (4.7) (5.0) (5.2)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 168.9 155.9 162.2 150.8 157.6 151.3 141.8 151.8 160.0 164.8
Narrow net external debt/CAR 161.1 169.9 192.2 190.8 200.7 229.8 208.4 250.5 260.4 267.1
GG balance/GDP (2.3) (1.9) (3.3) (3.0) (2.5) (2.6) (2.9) (3.0) (2.5) (2.5)
GG net debt/GDP 21.0 22.8 25.5 28.5 26.6 27.6 32.5 35.1 34.7 34.6
CPI inflation 7.7 9.7 7.4 14.6 12.6 19.9 20.2 24.0 16.0 14.0
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 30.7 31.6 33.7 34.2 35.8 33.1 32.7 31.8 31.3 30.9
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Georgia (BB/Negative/B)

  • Analyst: aarti.sakhuja@spglobal.com
  • Latest publication: (Full Analysis) Georgia, Aug. 30, 2021
Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 4
  • Economic assessment: 5
  • External assessment: 5
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 3
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 4
  • Monetary assessment: 4
Outlook: Negative

The negative outlook reflects risks to Georgia's ability to generate adequate FX earnings to service its sizable external liabilities over our forecast horizon of 2021-2024. The recovery in the tourism sector is likely to lag the global rollout of COVID-19 vaccines, and we do not project a return to 2019 levels of tourist activity until 2024. Coupled with a more volatile environment for domestic politics and policy, this could cloud the medium-term outlook for foreign investment inflows, which are important for growth and external financing, in our view.

We could lower the ratings over the next year if:

  • We believed that Georgia's economic growth prospects would be materially weaker for longer, endangering the consolidation of its fiscal and external finances; or
  • Financing for Georgia's twin deficits continued to reorient toward debt-creating foreign inflows, rather than equity-like inflows.

We could revise the outlook to stable if FX earnings recover faster than we anticipate, thereby reducing external imbalances.

(for the latest research update, published on Feb. 26, 2021, click here)

Table 23

Georgia
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 4.0 4.1 4.4 4.7 4.7 4.3 4.7 5.2 5.5 5.8
GDP growth 3.0 2.9 4.8 4.8 5.0 (6.8) 9.0 5.5 5.0 4.5
GDP per capita growth 2.9 2.7 4.9 4.8 5.2 (6.6) 8.7 5.6 5.1 4.6
Current account balance/GDP (11.8) (12.5) (8.0) (6.8) (5.5) (12.4) (8.1) (6.0) (5.5) (4.8)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 116.7 122.1 117.5 117.3 114.9 127.5 118.9 116.2 116.1 116.3
Narrow net external debt/CAR 92.8 102.8 88.8 81.7 78.9 129.9 121.9 113.3 112.4 111.8
GG balance/GDP (2.3) (2.7) (3.0) (2.1) (2.1) (9.4) (6.9) (4.5) (3.0) (2.5)
GG net debt/GDP 32.6 36.0 35.4 35.7 37.3 54.0 52.1 53.6 53.5 52.9
CPI inflation 4.0 2.1 6.0 2.6 4.9 5.2 9.4 6.5 3.0 3.0
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 46.9 54.1 54.9 59.6 65.0 78.5 76.9 77.7 80.9 84.2
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Ghana (B-/Stable/B)

  • Analyst: frank.gill@spglobal.com
  • Latest publication: (Full Analysis) Ghana, Sept. 13, 2021
Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 5
  • Economic assessment: 5
  • External assessment: 6
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 6
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 6
  • Monetary assessment: 4
Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook balances risks from fiscal and external financing pressures against the country's medium-term economic growth prospects.

We could lower the rating in the next six to 12 months if we saw further deterioration of Ghana's fiscal metrics, either due to recurring wide fiscal deficits or the materialization of contingent liabilities in the financial or energy sectors. Downward pressure on the ratings could also materialize should external pressures build--for example, because of wider current account deficits, rapid dollarization of domestic savings, or accelerated nonresident outflows, eroding Ghana's useable foreign exchange reserves.

We could raise our ratings should Ghana implement faster fiscal consolidation measures in order to alleviate pressure on public finances, without jeopardizing the government's ability to maintain balanced economic growth.

(for the latest research update, published on Sept. 11, 2020, click here)

Table 24

Ghana
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3
GDP growth 2.1 3.4 8.1 6.2 6.5 0.4 4.3 4.7 5.1 5.1
GDP per capita growth (0.2) 1.1 5.8 3.9 4.2 (1.7) 2.1 2.5 2.9 2.9
Current account balance/GDP (5.6) (5.1) (3.3) (3.0) (2.7) (3.1) (3.0) (2.7) (2.9) (3.0)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 125.1 131.1 122.4 119.7 126.0 125.4 125.6 127.3 129.4 131.1
Narrow net external debt/CAR 128.1 135.2 125.8 118.9 105.9 137.0 139.4 146.0 157.8 164.6
GG balance/GDP (5.0) -10 (4.6) (6.8) (7.3) (15.0) (12.2) (10.4) (9.5) (8.6)
GG net debt/GDP 51.4 51.7 50.1 52.7 57.5 71.9 77.1 80.1 81.5 81.8
CPI inflation 17.2 17.5 12.4 9.8 8.4 8.7 9.5 9.0 9.0 9.0
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 15.8 15.0 14.9 12.3 12.9 12.6 13.3 14.0 14.7 15.4
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Hungary (BBB/Stable/A-2)

Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 4
  • Economic assessment: 3
  • External assessment: 2
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 4
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 4
  • Monetary assessment: 3
Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook reflects our expectation that Hungary's economy will rebound strongly in 2021, while performance--economic, fiscal, and external--is supported by EU disbursements, some of which are currently on hold.

Over the coming two years, we could lower the ratings should, beyond the April 2022 parliamentary election, fiscal deficits remain elevated and Hungary's external position weaken.

A sizable, prolonged cut to EU funds would worsen economic growth prospects, widen government deficits and the debt burden), as well as require more external debt to finance Hungary's external position.

Rating pressure could also build if the Hungarian central bank, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB), diverged markedly from its free-floating exchange rate policy, for example by becoming more interventionist in the foreign exchange market.

Ratings upside could emerge should Hungary's growth continue to outpace peers' at similar levels of economic wealth, without engendering overheating or external imbalances. This scenario would likely coincide with strong absorption of EU funds, supporting net external deleveraging of the economy.

We could also raise the ratings if the authorities consolidated public finances much faster than we currently project.

Table 25

Hungary
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 12.7 13.1 14.6 16.4 16.7 16.0 18.0 19.0 20.1 21.3
GDP growth 3.7 2.2 4.3 5.4 4.6 (4.7) 6.9 5.1 3.3 3.0
GDP per capita growth 3.9 2.5 4.6 5.6 4.6 (4.6) 7.3 5.3 3.5 3.2
Current account balance/GDP 2.4 4.5 2.0 0.2 (0.7) (1.6) (0.8) (1.0) (1.2) (1.5)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 101.8 99.6 103.5 105.0 102.9 102.7 100.7 100.3 98.5 99.0
Narrow net external debt/CAR 37.9 31.2 29.4 21.7 21.7 25.8 24.2 24.4 23.7 23.2
GG balance/GDP (2.0) (1.8) (2.5) (2.1) (2.1) (8.0) (7.1) (5.3) (4.0) (3.0)
GG net debt/GDP 73.0 70.5 69.2 65.2 62.6 72.4 71.8 71.4 71.2 70.2
CPI inflation 0.1 0.5 2.4 2.9 3.4 3.4 4.6 3.5 3.0 3.0
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 41.7 41.0 38.5 38.7 40.2 45.2 43.4 41.8 41.2 40.7
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Iraq (B-/Stable/B)

  • Analyst: maximillian.mcgraw@spglobal.com
  • Latest publication: (Full Analysis) Iraq, Aug. 23, 2021
Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 6
  • Economic assessment: 6
  • External assessment: 4
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 6
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 6
  • Monetary assessment: 5
Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook reflects our view that Iraq's foreign exchange reserves will continue to comfortably exceed external debt-servicing obligations over the next 12 months. It also assumes that Iraq will meet its domestic financing needs largely through indirect borrowing from the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI), increasing the money supply.

We could lower the ratings if significant pressure on Iraq's foreign currency reserves and exchange-rate regime resulted in a sharp drop in reserve coverage of external debt-servicing requirements. This could occur, for instance, due to increased central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market, possibly triggered by a further dollarization of household deposits, or the inflationary effects of CBI monetization of an elevated budgetary deficit. Furthermore, Iraq's domestic political landscape and external security backdrop remain unpredictable. We could also consider a downgrade if we perceived that weaknesses in the sovereign's institutional framework had reduced the government's ability or willingness to service debt.

We could upgrade Iraq in the medium term if higher-than-expected growth, for instance from reinvigorated reconstruction efforts, boosted the country's economic growth and GDP per capita. Improvements to the government's fiscal position, including increasing revenue diversification and containing the public sector wage bill, would also support a higher rating. Moreover, institutional reforms could also improve our opinion on the government's debt-servicing capacity.

(for the latest research update, published on Feb. 19, 2021, click here)

Table 26

Iraq
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 4.7 4.6 5.1 5.5 5.7 4.1 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.2
GDP growth 4.7 13.8 (1.8) (1.2) 4.5 (10.4) 1.0 3.0 3.5 2.8
GDP per capita growth 1.3 10.6 (4.2) (3.5) 2.1 (12.4) (1.3) 0.7 1.2 0.5
Current account balance/GDP (1.7) 1.3 7.8 16.2 7.1 (3.8) 4.2 2.5 1.0 0.9
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 52.2 49.6 49.4 45.1 52.0 53.0 51.3 50.4 52.5 53.5
Narrow net external debt/CAR 2.0 22.3 18.4 (7.9) (16.1) (2.4) (2.4) 0.2 1.4 1.5
GG balance/GDP (13.7) (14.6) (1.7) 8.3 (4.9) (6.5) (3.0) (6.0) (7.0) (7.0)
GG net debt/GDP 50.0 58.1 50.4 34.8 35.2 69.1 64.0 66.7 69.8 73.3
CPI inflation 1.4 (0.7) 0.2 0.4 (0.2) 0.6 6.0 5.0 2.0 2.0
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 13.6 13.5 12.3 10.0 10.1 15.5 14.4 14.3 14.2 14.1
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Israel (AA-/Stable/A-1+)

  • Analyst: maxim.rybnikov@spglobal.com
  • Latest publication: (Full Analysis) Israel, Nov. 15, 2021
Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 4
  • Economic assessment: 1
  • External assessment: 1
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 4
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 4
  • Monetary assessment: 2
Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook balances the elevated geopolitical risks, and pandemic-induced deterioration of Israel's fiscal position, against the country's persistently resilient economy and strong balance of payments. We also forecast that Israel's net external asset position will amount to just under 50% of GDP over the next two years, providing the economy with substantial buffers.

Pressure on the ratings could build if geopolitical risks escalated, affecting Israel's economic, fiscal, and balance-of-payments metrics. We could also take a negative rating action if pandemic-related pressures persisted for longer, for example due to the emergence of a vaccine-resistant strain of the virus that undermined economic recovery and deteriorated public finances substantially more than we currently forecast.

We could take a positive rating action if geopolitical risks were to significantly reduce, while fiscal outturns proved materially stronger than our projections, putting net general government debt back on a downward path.

(for the latest research update, published on May 14, 2021, click here)

Table 27

Israel
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 35.8 37.3 40.8 42.1 44.0 44.2 50.6 53.9 56.6 59.5
GDP growth 2.3 4.5 4.4 4.0 3.8 (2.2) 6.5 4.0 3.5 3.5
GDP per capita growth 0.3 2.4 2.4 2.0 1.8 (3.9) 4.4 2.0 1.5 1.5
Current account balance/GDP 5.2 3.7 3.6 2.9 3.6 5.5 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.1
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 70.5 68.8 68.0 66.2 64.7 59.6 56.9 53.4 53.7 54.0
Narrow net external debt/CAR (35.8) (42.2) (53.9) (47.0) (51.4) (67.9) (74.6) (71.7) (70.2) (68.8)
GG balance/GDP (1.6) (2.0) (2.1) (4.3) (4.5) (11.9) (5.5) (4.5) (4.0) (4.0)
GG net debt/GDP 61.8 59.9 57.9 58.3 58.1 68.2 68.4 68.5 68.7 68.9
CPI inflation (0.6) (0.5) 0.2 0.8 0.8 (0.6) 1.5 2.2 2.0 2.0
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 70.8 70.0 69.8 70.7 70.1 74.3 75.0 73.1 72.0 71.0
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Jordan (B+/Stable/B)

  • Analyst: samuel.tilleray@spglobal.com
  • Latest publication: (Full Analysis) Jordan, Sept. 13, 2021
Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 4
  • Economic assessment: 6
  • External assessment: 6
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 3
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 6
  • Monetary assessment: 4
Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook balances our expectation that, over the next 12 months, donor funding will continue to support the government's financing needs and keep debt-servicing costs reasonably low, against the risk that the fiscal performance is significantly weaker than our current projections.

We could lower our ratings on Jordan if we were to project much higher debt accumulation by the central government or state-owned enterprises, which could weaken our view of the government's institutional ability to stabilize public finances. We could also lower the ratings if funding sources became strained, for example if the currently strong bilateral and multilateral donor support were to diminish.

We could raise the ratings if Jordan's external imbalances narrowed sharply and foreign investment were to rebound, boosting foreign exchange reserves. A positive rating action could also be supported by a substantial reduction in net government debt. A notable improvement in economic growth prospects spurred by government structural reforms and in particular those relating to investment, competitiveness, and reducing the costs of doing business--such as energy costs--would also support the ratings.

(for the latest research update, published on Sept. 11, 2020, click here)

Table 28

Jordan
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4
GDP growth 2.5 2.0 2.1 1.9 2.0 (1.6) 1.5 2.1 3.0 3.0
GDP per capita growth (5.6) (0.5) (0.5) (0.6) (0.4) (3.9) (0.9) (0.3) 0.6 0.6
Current account balance/GDP (9.0) (9.7) (10.6) (6.9) (2.1) (8.5) (7.9) (7.2) (6.5) (5.2)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 145.8 148.6 157.7 150.6 149.4 187.5 184.4 175.3 175.4 172.5
Narrow net external debt/CAR 16.0 21.9 30.4 42.0 40.2 64.2 68.3 73.1 75.7 75.0
GG balance/GDP (0.7) 0.3 0.9 1.2 (0.5) (5.4) (2.7) (1.2) 0.1 1.6
GG net debt/GDP 67.3 67.1 66.7 67.5 70.3 79.8 83.7 85.0 84.4 81.3
CPI inflation (0.9) (0.8) 3.3 4.5 0.8 0.3 2.1 1.9 2.5 2.5
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 69.8 75.2 79.8 81.5 82.1 89.3 91.0 91.4 91.2 91.1
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Kazakhstan (BBB-/Stable/A-3)

Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 5
  • Economic assessment: 4
  • External assessment: 2
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 2
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 2
  • Monetary assessment: 4
Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook reflects our expectation that Kazakhstan's economy will recover following the twin shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic and sharp fall in oil prices and production in 2020, while the government and external balance sheets will remain strong over the next two years.

We could raise the ratings if we saw improvements in institutional and policymaking effectiveness, evidenced for instance by significant progress on devolution of power, improving the transparency and accountability of institutions, and strengthening the business environment.

A meaningful improvement in the health of the banking sector, for example, supported by further advances in regulatory oversight or improvements in corporate governance, could improve our view on monetary policy effectiveness and reduce risks to the government's fiscal position.

We could lower the ratings if Kazakhstan's external balances were to deteriorate, for instance due to a sharp and prolonged fall in hydrocarbon revenue, evidenced by gross external financing needs exceeding 100% of current account receipts plus usable reserves.

Slower-than-anticipated fiscal consolidation, weakening the government's strong asset position, could also put downward pressure on the ratings.

Table 29

Kazakhstan
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 10.4 7.7 9.2 9.8 9.7 9.1 9.6 10.1 10.5 11.0
GDP growth 1.2 1.1 4.1 4.1 4.5 (2.5) 3.5 3.6 3.9 3.5
GDP per capita growth (1.7) (0.3) 2.7 2.8 3.2 (3.8) 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.2
Current account balance/GDP (3.3) (5.9) (3.1) (0.1) (4.0) (3.8) (2.8) (2.6) (2.2) (2.5)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 109.9 100.9 94.3 90.1 96.1 94.9 89.2 89.7 90.8 92.7
Narrow net external debt/CAR (55.6) (64.4) 1.7 (37.1) (36.6) (38.2) (37.8) (35.0) (33.8) (35.4)
GG balance/GDP (8.5) (4.0) (4.0) (1.2) (0.5) (7.2) (4.0) (1.8) (1.0) (0.6)
GG net debt/GDP (38.6) (25.7) (3.3) (14.3) (11.4) (5.4) (2.9) (1.5) (1.5) (2.4)
CPI inflation 6.6 14.6 7.4 6.0 5.4 6.8 8.7 7.0 5.5 5.0
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 42.9 37.1 28.3 25.3 23.8 24.8 24.0 23.3 22.8 22.2
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Kenya (B/Stable/B)

  • Analyst: ravi.bhatia@spglobal.com
  • Latest publication: (Full Analysis) Kenya, Sept. 6, 2021
Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 4
  • Economic assessment: 5
  • External assessment: 6
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 6
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 6
  • Monetary assessment: 4
Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook balances our expectation of an economic recovery and the availability of supportive foreign-donor facilities, against the risk of ongoing fiscal and external pressures.

We could lower the ratings if Kenya's path to economic recovery and efforts to curb its fiscal deficits prove inadequate, pushing domestic or external debt up significantly, and/or weakening external liquidity beyond our projections. We could also lower the ratings if Kenya enters into debt-restructuring arrangements with adverse credit implications for commercial (nonofficial) creditors.

We could raise the ratings if we see a significant and sustained improvement in Kenya's fiscal and external accounts. We could also raise the ratings if Kenya consolidates its fiscal position more rapidly than we expect, which would in turn help address debt vulnerabilities.

(for the latest research update, published on March 5, 2021, click here)

Table 30

Kenya
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2
GDP growth 5.7 4.2 3.8 5.6 5.0 (0.3) 4.6 5.4 5.6 5.6
GDP per capita growth 3.1 1.7 1.4 3.2 2.6 (2.5) 2.3 3.0 3.3 3.3
Current account balance/GDP (6.4) (5.4) (6.9) (5.4) (5.3) (4.6) (5.5) (6.1) (5.9) (5.7)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 124.1 125.9 133.7 134.5 136.1 139.8 158.2 158.9 154.6 161.4
Narrow net external debt/CAR 93.5 129.3 139.2 136.3 168.6 234.9 237.3 252.8 270.9 288.6
GG balance/GDP (7.4) (6.9) (8.1) (6.4) (7.0) (7.6) (7.9) (7.6) (6.3) (5.8)
GG net debt/GDP 38.3 41.9 44.2 45.8 49.9 56.7 59.8 62.7 63.8 64.3
CPI inflation 6.6 6.3 8.0 4.7 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.1 5.2 5.2
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 38.8 37.2 34.7 32.6 32.0 33.2 32.9 31.8 31.0 30.2
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Kuwait (AA-/Negative/A-1+)

Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 4
  • Economic assessment: 3
  • External assessment: 1
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 1
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 1
  • Monetary assessment: 4
Outlook: Negative

The negative outlook primarily reflects risks over the next 12-24 months relating to the government's ability to overcome the institutional roadblocks preventing it from implementing a financing strategy for future deficits.

We could lower the ratings if elevated central government deficits persisted over the medium term, with still no sustainable comprehensive financing arrangements agreed. This could happen, for instance, as a result of continued confrontation between the government and parliament rendering the government unable to implement fiscal reforms, pass the debt law, or authorize other sources of budget financing.

We could revise the outlook to stable if the authorities demonstrated a track record of structural reform implementation that addressed Kuwait's long-term funding needs, enhanced policymaking, and improved economic prospects.

Table 31

Kuwait
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 27.0 24.8 26.8 29.9 28.5 22.7 28.9 30.3 29.5 30.6
GDP growth 0.6 2.9 (4.7) 2.4 (0.6) (8.9) 0.8 8.0 6.5 2.0
GDP per capita growth (2.9) (1.1) (6.6) (0.3) (3.8) (6.8) 1.3 8.5 7.0 2.5
Current account balance/GDP 3.5 (4.6) 8.0 14.4 24.5 21.1 19.1 17.8 14.3 12.4
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 124.6 143.2 118.6 111.0 103.9 108.2 105.5 102.7 116.1 125.0
Narrow net external debt/CAR (633.3) (682.1) (601.3) (517.1) (498.4) (657.3) (600.8) (590.0) (631.9) (621.5)
GG balance/GDP 11.4 10.3 12.6 16.8 11.8 (4.9) 7.1 7.5 7.0 9.1
GG net debt/GDP (479.0) (489.8) (451.1) (417.0) (437.7) (558.9) (449.0) (440.6) (461.6) (457.2)
CPI inflation 3.7 3.5 1.5 0.6 1.1 2.1 3.0 2.5 2.0 2.0
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 106.3 113.9 105.2 95.2 100.3 132.4 111.2 111.6 119.7 120.8
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Lebanon (SD/SD)

  • Analyst: zahabia.gupta@spglobal.com
  • Latest publication: (Full Analysis) Lebanon, Aug. 23, 2021
Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 6
  • Economic assessment: 6
  • External assessment: 6
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 6
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 6
  • Monetary assessment: 6
Outlook:

Foreign currency rating.

The Lebanese government defaulted on its foreign currency debt obligations in March 2020. Our foreign currency rating on Lebanon is 'SD'. We do not assign outlooks to 'SD' or 'D' ratings because they express a condition and not a forward-looking opinion of default probability.

Local currency rating. The negative outlook on the 'CC' long-term local currency rating reflects our view that the government will likely decide to restructure its local currency debt as part of a broader restructuring program.

Local currency rating. We could lower the local currency rating to 'SD' if the government signals that it will restructure local currency debt in addition to the Eurobonds.

Local currency rating. We could revise the outlook to stable or raise the local currency rating if we perceived that the likelihood of a distressed exchange of Lebanon's local currency commercial debt had decreased. This could be the case if, for example, significant donor funding support were to materialize, allowing the government a window to implement immediate and transformative reforms, or if meaningful reforms led to sustained strong economic growth.

Foreign currency rating. We would raise our long-term foreign currency sovereign issuer credit rating from 'SD' upon completion of the government's bond restructuring. The rating would reflect Lebanon's post-restructuring creditworthiness, considering the resulting debt burden and macroeconomic policy prospects. Our post-restructuring ratings tend to be in the 'CCC' or low 'B' categories, depending on the sovereign's new debt structure and capacity to support that debt.

(for the latest research update, published on Aug. 21, 2020, click here)

Table 32

Lebanon
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 8.6 8.6 8.8 8.1 7.8 2.7 2.0 1.9 2.7 3.0
GDP growth 0.6 1.6 0.8 (1.7) (7.2) (25.0) (10.0) 1.0 1.3 1.5
GDP per capita growth (3.7) (1.0) (0.5) (12.8) (7.1) (24.7) (8.2) 0.9 1.1 1.2
Current account balance/GDP (21.2) (24.6) (27.1) (27.7) (21.2) (23.3) (18.4) (20.7) (23.9) (24.7)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 116.2 126.1 125.1 130.7 142.5 133.5 81.5 71.7 82.3 95.3
Narrow net external debt/CAR (61.3) (68.1) (49.4) (26.2) (7.7) (117.1) (152.0) (138.4) (96.3) (68.3)
GG balance/GDP (7.9) (9.6) (7.0) (11.3) (10.9) (4.5) (5.0) (6.0) (7.0) (7.0)
GG net debt/GDP 111.7 116.8 118.9 125.3 139.5 267.5 483.8 294.2 249.0 230.1
CPI inflation (3.8) (0.8) 4.4 6.1 2.9 84.9 100.0 30.0 20.0 10.0
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 96.0 99.3 100.2 93.7 82.0 52.7 32.8 27.0 23.1 21.5
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Montenegro (B/Stable/B)

  • Analyst: gabriel.forss@spglobal.com
  • Latest publication: (Full Analysis) Montenegro, Sept. 6, 2021
Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 4
  • Economic assessment: 4
  • External assessment: 6
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 4
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 6
  • Monetary assessment: 6
Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook reflects our view that, despite the erosion of Montenegro's fiscal space from the pandemic, there are no immediate pressures from higher debt levels over the next 12 months. Montenegro has accumulated sizable cash buffers through prefunding, and we estimate that these are enough to cover all upcoming government debt payments in 2021. The stable outlook also assumes that vaccine distribution in Montenegro and abroad progresses and continues to support activity in Montenegro's tourism industry, which should support economic recovery over the medium term.

The ratings could come under pressure if Montenegro's economy does not rebound as we expect over 2021-2022, in turn further straining the already weak fiscal position. We could also lower the ratings if the fiscal position continues to deteriorate for other reasons, resulting in net general government debt continuing to rise in contrast with our current expectations that it will stabilize at under 75% of GDP. This could be the case if the government is unable to control current spending over the medium term or undertakes large additional debt-financed projects. That said, we currently view imminent pressures on Montenegro's debt sustainability as unlikely.

We could raise the ratings if Montenegro's fiscal prospects improve compared with our baseline expectations. This could be the case if the tourism sector stages a faster comeback and underpins higher growth, in turn supporting Montenegro's budgetary performance and balance-of-payments position.

(for the latest research update, published on March 5, 2021, click here)

Table 33

Montenegro
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 6.5 7.0 7.8 8.9 8.9 7.7 9.2 9.9 10.7 11.4
GDP growth 3.4 3.0 4.7 5.1 4.1 (15.3) 9.5 6.5 3.5 3.0
GDP per capita growth 3.4 2.9 4.7 5.1 4.1 (15.2) 9.5 6.5 3.5 3.0
Current account balance/GDP (11.0) (16.2) (16.1) (17.0) (14.3) (26.1) (17.5) (14.5) (14.5) (15.3)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 131.9 137.5 127.9 130.0 122.4 136.3 114.3 123.4 127.6 131.0
Narrow net external debt/CAR 157.0 153.2 164.6 150.2 156.8 300.6 207.3 187.1 176.6 169.0
GG balance/GDP (8.3) (3.6) (5.3) (3.9) (2.0) (11.1) (4.0) (3.0) (2.5) (2.0)
GG net debt/GDP 62.7 61.1 60.1 59.0 58.3 77.7 72.6 68.5 66.8 64.9
CPI inflation 1.5 (0.3) 2.4 2.6 0.4 (0.3) 3.5 2.8 2.2 2.2
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 51.3 50.1 49.9 50.1 50.5 61.6 57.9 54.8 54.0 53.5
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Morocco (BB+/Stable/B)

  • Analyst: remy.carasse@spglobal.com
  • Latest publication: (Full Analysis) Morocco, Oct. 1, 2021
Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 4
  • Economic assessment: 5
  • External assessment: 3
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 4
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 4
  • Monetary assessment: 3
Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook on Morocco reflects our expectation that an economic recovery, alongside further structural economic and budgetary reforms, will help counterbalance budgetary stress.

We could lower the ratings if the government's fiscal results materially underperform our expectations, for example, due to crystallization of contingent liabilities on the government's balance sheet. Additional rating pressure could emerge if, contrary to our forecasts, external imbalances widen and result in a pronounced increase in the economy's gross financing needs.

We could raise the ratings if budgetary consolidation is markedly faster than expected, or the ongoing transition toward a more flexible exchange rate bolsters Morocco's external competitiveness. We could also raise the ratings if the country's economic diversification strategy yields less volatile and higher rates of economic growth, significantly raising the economy's GDP per capita.

(for the latest research update, published on April 2, 2021, click here)

Table 34

Morocco
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.9
GDP growth 4.5 1.1 4.3 3.2 2.6 (6.3) 5.8 3.4 3.6 3.6
GDP per capita growth 3.1 (0.3) 2.9 1.9 1.4 (7.4) 4.6 2.2 2.4 2.4
Current account balance/GDP (2.1) (4.1) (3.4) (5.3) (3.7) (1.5) (3.0) (2.1) (2.0) (1.8)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 93.8 92.5 92.8 94.5 94.2 89.7 85.1 84.0 84.5 85.1
Narrow net external debt/CAR 32.3 33.6 30.9 30.4 30.3 30.8 25.8 24.5 23.6 22.9
GG balance/GDP (4.2) (4.5) (3.5) (3.8) (4.1) (7.6) (6.3) (5.7) (5.2) (4.6)
GG net debt/GDP 47.0 49.2 53.1 54.5 55.5 67.8 69.3 71.4 72.7 73.3
CPI inflation 1.6 1.6 0.8 1.8 0.3 0.7 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.5
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 77.9 79.0 76.8 75.6 75.3 82.1 80.5 79.7 78.7 77.7
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Mozambique (CCC+/Stable/C)

Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 6
  • Economic assessment: 6
  • External assessment: 6
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 6
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 6
  • Monetary assessment: 5
Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook reflects the balance between risks associated with Mozambique's large external and fiscal deficits against improving economic growth beyond 2021, supported by large investments in extractive sectors.

We could lower the ratings over the next 12 months if Mozambique's economic performance were to weaken substantially, for example, due to lingering insurgency risks that could adversely affect large gas projects.

We could consider raising the ratings over the next 6-12 months if Mozambique's economic growth prospects improved and political risks abated as a result of accelerated vaccination rates and the sustainable resumption of LNG projects.

Table 35

Mozambique
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6
GDP growth 6.7 3.8 3.7 3.4 2.3 (1.2) 2.5 4.0 5.0 5.5
GDP per capita growth 3.7 0.9 0.8 0.5 (0.6) (4.0) (0.4) 1.1 2.0 2.5
Current account balance/GDP (37.4) (34.1) (18.3) (29.9) (19.1) (25.8) (24.8) (25.1) (24.8) (24.8)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 170.1 180.3 152.7 161.9 171.2 177.7 173.0 172.3 172.1 176.0
Narrow net external debt/CAR 289.2 383.3 263.8 313.2 288.9 401.3 369.7 329.5 321.6 307.8
GG balance/GDP (4.1) (8.0) (6.5) (8.6) (2.1) (5.3) (6.0) (7.0) (5.0) (4.0)
GG net debt/GDP 76.9 96.6 74.8 77.5 71.6 91.7 93.5 95.3 94.0 91.3
CPI inflation 3.6 19.9 15.1 3.9 2.8 3.1 5.0 5.0 6.0 6.0
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 36.0 37.4 28.7 26.3 25.8 29.0 28.7 27.9 26.8 25.6
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Nigeria (B-/Stable/B)

  • Analyst: ravi.bhatia@spglobal.com
  • Latest publication: (Full Analysis) Nigeria, Aug. 16, 2021
Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 5
  • Economic assessment: 6
  • External assessment: 6
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 6
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 5
  • Monetary assessment: 5
Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook indicates that COVID-19-related pressures will continue to weigh on Nigeria's GDP growth and fiscal and external metrics, but improved oil prices will support GDP growth.

We could raise our ratings if Nigeria experiences significantly stronger economic performance than we currently expect, or if external financing pressures prove to be contained, while fiscal deficits reduce faster than we project.

We could lower the ratings if we saw increasing risks to Nigeria's capacity to repay commercial obligations, either because of declining external liquidity or a continued reduction in fiscal flexibility. This could occur, for instance, if we see significantly higher fiscal deficits or debt-servicing needs, as well as significantly reduced foreign exchange reserves.

(for the latest research update, published on Aug. 28, 2020, click here)

Table 36

Nigeria
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 2.7 2.1 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
GDP growth 2.7 (1.6) 0.8 1.9 2.2 (1.8) 2.0 2.4 2.3 2.3
GDP per capita growth (0.0) (4.2) (1.8) (0.7) (0.4) (4.3) (0.6) (0.2) (0.3) (0.3)
Current account balance/GDP (3.2) 1.3 3.7 1.8 (3.6) (4.2) (0.7) (0.3) 0.2 1.0
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 99.2 78.4 73.2 84.1 95.5 107.3 94.8 104.0 103.6 102.5
Narrow net external debt/CAR (1.7) 1.5 9.2 4.2 19.4 35.5 33.9 38.4 43.1 47.5
GG balance/GDP (3.5) (4.0) (5.4) (4.3) (4.8) (5.5) (4.8) (4.3) (4.2) (4.0)
GG net debt/GDP 11.9 15.1 33.2 44.3 51.3 42.1 42.8 44.1 45.2 46.1
CPI inflation 9.0 15.7 16.5 12.1 11.4 13.3 17.5 12.0 10.0 9.0
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 13.5 15.4 13.3 11.3 11.5 12.4 12.0 12.2 12.5 12.8
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

North Macedonia (BB-/Stable/B)

  • Analyst: ludwig.heinz@spglobal.com
  • Latest publication: (Full Analysis) North Macedonia, Aug. 23, 2021
Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 5
  • Economic assessment: 4
  • External assessment: 3
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 4
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 3
  • Monetary assessment: 4
Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook reflects our expectation that North Macedonia's projected economic recovery will help curb fiscal and external deficits over the coming year.

We could raise the ratings if continued structural reforms strengthened the sovereign's institutional arrangements while preserving sustainable fiscal policies. North Macedonia's EU accession aspirations could remain an anchor for such institutional improvements and structural reform progress.

We could lower the ratings if fiscal and current account deficits are higher than we project over the next one-to-two years, coupled with a continuous surge in net government debt or the buildup of external financing pressures. The ratings could also come under pressure if, contrary to our expectations, domestic financial system stability were to weaken under a hypothetical scenario of sustained asset quality deterioration and persistent deposit conversion to foreign currency.

(for the latest research update, published on Feb. 19, 2021, click here)

Table 37

North Macedonia
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 4.9 5.2 5.5 6.1 6.0 5.9 6.5 6.7 7.1 7.6
GDP growth 3.9 2.9 1.1 2.9 3.2 (4.5) 3.7 3.7 3.4 3.3
GDP per capita growth 3.7 2.7 1.0 2.8 3.1 (4.5) 3.7 3.7 3.3 3.2
Current account balance/GDP (1.9) (2.9) (0.9) (0.1) (3.3) (3.4) (2.8) (2.6) (2.6) (2.3)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 108.3 109.9 106.4 109.4 112.0 114.4 113.8 113.2 111.6 110.6
Narrow net external debt/CAR 26.9 28.3 32.6 24.3 23.1 33.6 30.4 29.4 27.3 25.1
GG balance/GDP (3.4) (2.7) (2.8) (1.1) (2.2) (8.2) (5.7) (3.8) (3.4) (3.1)
GG net debt/GDP 36.5 38.6 40.4 39.3 41.2 50.3 54.2 56.5 57.7 57.6
CPI inflation (0.3) (0.2) 1.4 1.5 0.8 1.2 3.2 2.2 2.0 2.0
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 51.1 48.1 48.8 49.0 49.9 54.3 54.5 54.6 54.9 55.2
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Oman (B+/Stable/B)

Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 4
  • Economic assessment: 5
  • External assessment: 5
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 5
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 6
  • Monetary assessment: 4
Outlook: Positive

The positive outlook indicates that we consider that Oman's reform program, and the higher oil prices relative to 2020, will narrow fiscal deficits and slow the increase in net government debt over the next three years.

We could raise our ratings over the next 12 months if planned fiscal reforms and stronger economic growth sustainably reduce fiscal imbalances and the stock of net government debt beyond our current expectations.

We could revise the outlook to stable if we saw risks to fiscal reform implementation that could reduce the government's ability to maintain sustainable public finances.

We could also revise the outlook to stable if external debt issuances by government-related enterprises increased the country's external debt metrics more than we currently expect.

Table 38

Oman
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 16.5 14.8 15.5 17.3 16.4 16.3 18.6 19.7 19.6 20.0
GDP growth 4.6 5.1 0.4 0.9 (0.8) (2.8) 1.7 2.7 3.4 2.1
GDP per capita growth 2.9 (1.0) (2.9) 0.0 (2.2) 1.4 (0.1) 0.9 1.6 0.3
Current account balance/GDP (16.0) (19.2) (15.6) (5.4) (5.6) (11.9) (4.4) (3.8) (7.0) (7.3)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 128.1 165.2 142.9 126.3 122.8 143.1 131.5 126.2 120.8 120.7
Narrow net external debt/CAR (78.2) (21.6) 18.9 24.5 36.5 69.4 63.9 65.9 80.6 91.1
GG balance/GDP (17.3) (17.5) (13.1) (6.5) (6.4) (15.1) (4.2) (4.3) (6.5) (6.3)
GG net debt/GDP (58.9) (29.1) (10.7) (5.9) (3.1) 12.4 14.9 18.1 24.4 29.8
CPI inflation 0.1 1.1 1.6 0.9 0.1 (0.9) 2.2 2.0 1.5 1.5
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 75.6 86.4 85.6 80.5 86.5 92.9 82.5 79.6 82.3 83.1
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Poland (A-/Stable/A-2)

  • Analyst: karen.vartapetov@spglobal.com
  • Latest publication: (Full Analysis) Poland, Oct. 4, 2021
Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 4
  • Economic assessment: 4
  • External assessment: 2
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 4
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 2
  • Monetary assessment: 2
Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook reflects the balance between macroeconomic risks stemming from COVID-19 and the buffers provided by the country's strong external and government balance sheets.

The ratings could come under pressure if the impact of the pandemic significantly weakened Poland's economic recovery and medium-term growth prospects, also leading to the government's fiscal position deteriorating well beyond our expectations. Ratings downside could also materialize in case of much weaker EU transfers to Poland, for instance as a result of political tensions between Poland and EU authorities. The crystallization of fiscal contingent liabilities from emergency policy measures or the government's increasing share of the financial system could also lead to a negative rating action.

We could raise the ratings if, following the temporary shock, Poland continued its strong economic performance and it boosted income levels without creating external imbalances.

(for the latest research update, published on Oct. 2, 2020, click here)

Table 39

Poland
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 12.6 12.5 13.9 15.5 15.7 15.7 17.6 19.2 20.3 21.3
GDP growth 4.2 3.1 4.8 5.4 4.7 (2.5) 5.2 5.0 3.3 2.4
GDP per capita growth 4.3 3.3 4.8 5.3 4.8 (2.5) 5.5 5.3 3.6 2.7
Current account balance/GDP (0.9) (0.8) (0.4) (1.3) 0.5 2.9 (0.3) (1.9) (2.3) (3.0)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 90.7 90.5 90.0 92.3 88.6 84.0 86.4 86.6 87.4 88.9
Narrow net external debt/CAR 56.6 48.7 50.0 36.8 30.9 26.1 18.8 16.6 16.3 17.0
GG balance/GDP (2.6) (2.4) (1.5) (0.2) (0.7) (7.1) (2.8) (3.5) (3.0) (2.9)
GG net debt/GDP 48.8 50.7 47.7 45.2 42.1 51.9 50.9 51.1 51.3 52.2
CPI inflation (0.7) (0.2) 1.6 1.2 2.1 3.6 5.0 5.1 2.9 2.5
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 59.0 59.2 57.4 57.6 55.9 57.4 55.6 54.2 54.2 54.7
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Qatar (AA-/Stable/A-1+)

Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 4
  • Economic assessment: 1
  • External assessment: 4
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 1
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 2
  • Monetary assessment: 4
Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook reflects our view that Qatar's fiscal and external buffers should continue to benefit from the country's status as one of the world's largest exporters of liquefied natural gas (LNG) over the next two years, against a backdrop of high global energy demand.

We could consider raising the ratings if Qatar's external and fiscal net asset positions proved stronger than we forecast, while the banking system's elevated stock of short-term external debt moderated in an orderly way.

We could lower the ratings should Qatar experience a significant external shock, either due to a material worsening of its terms of trade, or to a sizable outflow of nonresident deposit funding from its large banking system, where financial assets amount to an estimated 270% of GDP. We could also lower the ratings if the Qatari government's balance sheet were to weaken substantially, reducing our estimate of government liquid assets to below 100% of GDP.

Table 40

Qatar
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 66.8 58.4 61.0 68.6 63.7 53.8 70.0 68.7 65.3 67.0
GDP growth 4.8 3.1 (1.5) 1.2 0.8 (3.6) 2.6 4.0 1.6 2.0
GDP per capita growth (3.4) (3.9) (3.2) 0.0 (2.4) (0.9) 7.1 1.0 0.1 0.5
Current account balance/GDP 8.5 (5.5) 4.0 9.1 2.4 (2.5) 10.8 7.7 2.2 3.6
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 105.9 144.4 156.7 175.5 194.5 223.7 203.2 207.9 225.3 224.5
Narrow net external debt/CAR (153.7) (150.7) (129.8) (98.6) (118.3) (142.0) (85.8) (81.2) (100.8) (105.9)
GG balance/GDP (5.5) (3.2) 15.1 (6.9) 21.8 18.3 9.1 9.7 6.5 5.5
GG net debt/GDP (114.0) (119.9) (113.1) (93.0) (115.3) (157.9) (135.0) (139.1) (155.4) (157.0)
CPI inflation 1.8 2.7 0.4 0.3 (0.8) (2.7) 1.8 2.1 2.0 1.8
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 99.2 109.6 110.0 106.1 129.7 174.4 150.4 161.4 179.1 182.3
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Ras al Khaimah (A-/Stable/A-2)

  • Analyst: zahabia.gupta@spglobal.com
  • Latest publication: (Full Analysis) Ras Al Khaimah, Oct. 25, 2021
Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 4
  • Economic assessment: 3
  • External assessment: 2
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 1
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 1
  • Monetary assessment: 5
Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook reflects S&P Global Ratings' expectation that RAK's government will maintain its prudent fiscal stance over the next two years and that GDP growth will average a moderate 2.5% annually over 2021-2024.

Although unlikely, we could raise the ratings if the economy materially strengthens.

We could lower the ratings if the government's strong fiscal position were to deteriorate, for example if weaker-than-expected economic activity resulted in the rapid accumulation of government debt. We could also lower the ratings if debt-service costs significantly increased.

(for the latest research update, published on Oct. 23, 2020, click here)

Table 41

Ras Al Khaimah
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 27.5 27.8 27.9 28.3 28.5 28.3 28.8 29.2 29.6 29.9
GDP growth 1.3 4.6 1.5 2.8 2.4 (5.0) 3.0 2.3 2.3 2.3
GDP per capita growth (1.7) 1.7 (1.4) 0.2 (0.5) 0.0 0.0 (0.2) (0.2) (0.2)
Current account balance/GDP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Narrow net external debt/CAR N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
GG balance/GDP 1.4 1.8 0.9 1.8 1.9 2.5 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0
GG net debt/GDP (9.8) (3.9) (5.1) (5.5) (7.6) (8.0) (10.4) (10.9) (11.5) (12.1)
CPI inflation 3.0 (0.4) 2.4 4.2 (1.9) (0.7) 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.5
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Romania (BBB-/Stable/A-3)

Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 4
  • Economic assessment: 4
  • External assessment: 3
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 4
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 3
  • Monetary assessment: 3
Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook reflects our expectation that Romania's fiscal balances will improve over the next two years. We anticipate that the policy anchors of the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) and the ongoing Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) will require reforms, and expect these instruments to invoke fiscal stringency in a complex and unpredictable political setting.

We could lower the ratings if:

  • Romania's efforts to rebalance its budget derail because of persisting political gridlock, endangering the consolidation of its fiscal finances, and adding to Romania's external deficits; or
  • Financing for Romania's twin deficits is oriented toward debt-creating foreign flows, signaling an inability to absorb EU funding sources and restore foreign direct investment (FDI) flows.

We could raise the ratings if Romania's economic growth becomes sustainably investment-led, strengthening productive capacity and leading to meaningfully improved wealth levels. We would expect this scenario to be accompanied by reforms that foster a more-solid fiscal framework that limits the potential for costly policy reversals. Aside from making Romania's fiscal framework more predictable, these reforms would likely revitalize foreign investor interest in the country's real economy, making the sovereign less sensitive to external developments.

Table 43

Romania
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 5.4 5.7 6.1 6.3 6.1 5.0 5.2 5.6 6.2 6.8
GDP growth 4.5 2.4 5.4 3.8 (0.5) (15.7) (4.1) 6.2 8.0 8.0
GDP per capita growth 4.1 2.0 3.7 3.2 (1.0) (16.2) (4.6) 5.5 7.3 7.4
Current account balance/GDP (3.5) (3.6) (6.6) (8.3) (12.5) (12.5) (17.1) (10.1) (5.6) (5.0)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 98.2 98.5 100.0 100.9 110.9 107.4 112.8 103.3 99.6 98.0
Narrow net external debt/CAR (5.1) (9.9) (10.5) 3.5 9.7 25.6 54.3 50.8 40.2 34.0
GG balance/GDP (3.8) (1.3) (1.9) (4.3) (3.5) (6.5) (12.0) (12.0) (4.5) (3.5)
GG net debt/GDP 40.7 38.8 36.1 40.1 43.7 62.4 75.8 81.8 77.3 72.7
CPI inflation 1.4 3.9 3.4 4.1 1.8 (2.6) 1.5 2.5 3.5 3.5
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 66.0 69.3 70.3 71.1 72.7 86.6 90.7 88.4 84.8 81.8
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Russia (BBB-/Stable/A-3)

Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 5
  • Economic assessment: 5
  • External assessment: 1
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 4
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 1
  • Monetary assessment: 3
Outlook: Stable

The stable outlooks reflect our expectation that Russia's strong external and fiscal balance sheets would be able to absorb risks to fiscal or financial stability stemming from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and possible additional international sanctions.

Pressure on the ratings could build, should materially tighter international sanctions lead to significant capital outflows and elevated financial stability risks. We could also take a negative rating action if the government's balance sheet were to deteriorate substantially. This could result, for example, from a permanent loosening of Russia's fiscal framework or the crystallization of contingent liabilities in the state-owned corporate or financial sectors.

An upgrade would likely be premised on abating geopolitical risks. In that case, we could take a positive rating action if Russia's GDP per capita trend growth improved, for instance because of the government's pro-growth policy measures. Rating upside could also emerge if the government's fiscal buffers were to significantly exceed our current expectations, which could help mitigate commodity-related revenue volatility, and if effective policy measures were to address long-term fiscal pressures from an aging population.

Table 44

Russia
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 9.4 8.7 10.7 11.3 11.5 10.1 11.6 12.5 12.7 13.1
GDP growth (2.0) 0.2 1.8 2.8 2.0 (3.0) 4.2 2.7 2.0 2.0
GDP per capita growth (2.2) 0.0 1.7 2.8 2.1 (2.9) 4.3 2.8 2.1 2.1
Current account balance/GDP 5.0 1.9 2.0 7.0 3.9 2.4 7.2 5.9 3.1 2.7
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 70.2 72.2 70.0 56.4 61.4 58.5 52.0 53.6 57.2 58.0
Narrow net external debt/CAR (48.3) (52.9) (52.1) (57.4) (69.0) (99.5) (84.2) (88.3) (96.5) (96.8)
GG balance/GDP (3.4) (4.5) (1.5) 2.9 1.9 (4.0) 0.7 1.2 (0.2) (0.4)
GG net debt/GDP 4.2 8.5 9.7 5.4 2.7 7.5 5.2 4.4 4.3 4.3
CPI inflation 15.5 7.0 3.7 2.9 4.5 3.4 6.6 6.2 4.0 4.0
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 62.2 59.5 59.7 59.3 61.5 71.5 67.1 69.8 71.7 73.2
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Rwanda (B+/Negative/B)

Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 4
  • Economic assessment: 5
  • External assessment: 5
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 6
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 4
  • Monetary assessment: 4
Outlook: Negative

The negative outlook reflects that Rwanda's investment and debt-driven economic growth model and structurally large current account deficits could exacerbate debt vulnerabilities more than we expect.

We could lower the ratings over the next 6-12 months if the country's external position deteriorated further than our base-case forecasts. This could happen, for example, if exports or inward remittances are below expectations or tourism inflows remain weaker for longer.

We could also lower the ratings if Rwanda cannot stabilize its debt levels owing to higher fiscal deficits or weaker economic growth.

We could revise our outlook to stable if the country reduces debt and strengthens its fiscal buffers.

Table 45

Rwanda
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9
GDP growth 8.9 6.0 4.0 8.6 9.5 (3.4) 4.4 6.5 7.4 7.4
GDP per capita growth 6.0 4.1 1.3 5.9 6.8 (5.6) 2.4 4.4 5.3 5.3
Current account balance/GDP (12.7) (15.3) (9.5) (10.1) (11.9) (12.0) (10.8) (9.9) (9.3) (8.6)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 117.6 128.0 113.0 110.7 114.0 112.8 104.1 103.3 109.5 107.2
Narrow net external debt/CAR 86.1 107.2 107.8 108.4 125.0 175.4 175.6 183.6 190.8 194.1
GG balance/GDP -4 (3.3) (4.6) (4.2) (5.5) (8.7) (9.0) (7.6) (6.6) (5.6)
GG net debt/GDP 30.2 38.1 41.5 45.0 50.5 61.2 68.8 72.2 74.0 74.7
CPI inflation 2.5 5.7 4.8 1.4 2.4 7.7 2.5 4.5 4.2 4.2
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 19.4 19.5 19.3 20.4 20.7 23.9 24.6 24.6 24.4 24.2
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Saudi Arabia (A-/Stable/A-2)

  • Analyst: ravi.bhatia@spglobal.com
  • Latest publication: (Full Analysis) Saudi Arabia, Sept. 27, 2021
Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 4
  • Economic assessment: 4
  • External assessment: 1
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 5
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 1
  • Monetary assessment: 4
Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook indicates that an emergence from the pandemic and an improvement in oil sector dynamics, alongside Saudi Arabia's government and external net asset positions, will support the ratings.

We could lower our ratings if we observed fiscal weakening and an erosion of the government's net asset position beyond our expectations, or a sharp deterioration in the sovereign's external position. A sustained rise in domestic or geopolitical instability that posed a significant and continued threat to the oil sector could also weigh on the ratings.

We could raise the ratings if Saudi Arabia's economic growth prospects improve significantly, or if the government's net asset position strengthens significantly. This could follow sustained, stronger-than-expected GDP growth or fiscal performance.

(for the latest research update, published on March 26, 2021, click here)

Table 46

Saudi Arabia
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 20.8 20.3 21.5 23.5 23.2 20.0 23.0 23.6 23.5 23.9
GDP growth 4.1 1.7 (0.7) 2.4 0.3 (4.1) 2.3 3.2 2.5 2.3
GDP per capita growth 1.6 1.0 (1.8) (1.6) (2.0) (6.3) 0.8 1.2 0.5 0.3
Current account balance/GDP (8.7) (3.7) 1.5 9.2 4.8 (3.1) 4.1 1.2 1.6 1.5
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 34.6 34.3 37.4 38.2 41.6 43.7 48.8 51.3 52.6 54.3
Narrow net external debt/CAR (309.5) (268.0) (204.0) (146.6) (149.8) (191.9) (130.2) (125.8) (113.8) (102.5)
GG balance/GDP (7.6) (15.9) (6.6) (3.5) (2.6) (13.9) (1.9) (2.7) (4.5) (4.7)
GG net debt/GDP (121.8) (95.1) (82.1) (66.8) (70.2) -72 (59.2) (53.4) (47.6) (40.6)
CPI inflation 1.2 2.1 (0.8) 2.5 (2.1) 3.5 3.1 2.3 2.1 2.1
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 58.0 60.9 56.5 50.8 54.1 70.1 69.4 75.3 81.7 85.8
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Senegal (B+/Stable/B)

  • Analyst: sebastien.boreux@spglobal.com
  • Latest publication: (Full Analysis) Senegal, Dec. 6, 2021
Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 4
  • Economic assessment: 4
  • External assessment: 5
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 5
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 5
  • Monetary assessment: 5
Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook on Senegal indicates that we expect the pandemic's adverse economic and budgetary impact to be contained without the country's credit metrics suffering long-lasting damage, also reflecting substantial external financial support. Once the pandemic abates, we project strong economic growth to resume, alongside structural economic and budgetary reforms.

We could lower the ratings if the government's budgetary performance deteriorates more than we expect and real GDP growth rates are significantly weaker than our forecasts. This could occur, for example, if the pandemic is more protracted than we anticipate or there are significant delays to expected hydrocarbon production.

Senegal's creditworthiness could also deteriorate if economic imbalances increase, or if pressures on the West African franc (XOF) to euro exchange rate appear. A devaluation--which we do not expect--would immediately increase government debt to GDP, placing considerable strain on Senegal's fiscal performance.

We could raise the ratings if, following the pandemic, the net government borrowing requirement declines significantly, the cost of servicing debt reduces, and economic growth resumes and is sufficient to put public debt relative to GDP on a sustainably downward path.

(for the latest research update, published June 5, 2020, click here)

Table 47

Senegal
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.8 2.0
GDP growth 6.4 6.4 7.4 6.4 5.3 1.5 5.0 6.0 11.0 9.0
GDP per capita growth 3.4 3.4 4.4 3.4 2.4 (1.2) 2.2 3.2 8.0 6.1
Current account balance/GDP (5.3) (4.2) (7.3) (9.5) (8.1) (9.4) (9.3) (9.1) (5.4) (3.4)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 122.1 120.0 133.4 137.5 130.3 126.1 120.3 115.1 107.3 97.3
Narrow net external debt/CAR 110.0 103.5 120.4 119.5 120.4 124.3 117.0 116.2 97.6 78.5
GG balance/GDP (3.7) (3.3) (3.0) (3.7) (3.9) (6.3) (6.3) (4.6) (3.5) -3
GG net debt/GDP 38.9 43.0 44.0 51.4 51.8 58.4 61.3 61.7 58.5 56.0
CPI inflation 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.5 1.8 2.6 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 31.7 32.5 34.5 33.0 33.2 32.6 32.7 31.8 29.6 28.1
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Serbia (BB+/Positive/B)

Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 4
  • Economic assessment: 4
  • External assessment: 3
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 3
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 2
  • Monetary assessment: 4
Outlook: Positive

The positive outlook reflects our view that Serbia's growth perspective should remain broadly resilient to the adverse effects of the pandemic's ongoing wave amid prudent macroeconomic policy settings. Absent a substantial deterioration in epidemiological conditions, we expect Serbia to achieve relatively high and balanced growth rates in the medium term. Coupled with the new (albeit unfunded) policy coordination arrangement with the IMF, this should support the government's efforts to consolidate public finances and stabilize the public debt burden. At the same time, high net FDI inflows should continue to overfund Serbia's current account deficits (CADs) and help to contain external debt and keep Serbia's foreign exchange (FX) reserve position strong.

We could raise our rating on Serbia in the next 12 months should higher FDI inflows or lower CADs than we currently project further bolster the country's buffers against external pressures. We could also raise the rating if fiscal consolidation exceeded our expectations, putting net government debt as a share of GDP on a firm downward trend. Lastly, we could raise the rating if the country sustained higher real GDP growth rates over the medium term than we project, for example because of stronger public and private investment activity.

We could revise the outlook to stable if Serbia's growth prospects proved to be weaker than forecast, derailing the government's fiscal consolidation plans and pushing public debt up. Similarly, we could revise the outlook to stable if weaker balance of payments performance put pressure on FX reserves or resulted in the buildup of external debt.

Table 48

Serbia
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 5.6 5.8 6.3 7.3 7.4 7.7 9.0 9.5 10.1 10.7
GDP growth 1.8 3.3 2.1 4.5 4.3 (0.9) 7.1 4.3 3.5 3.3
GDP per capita growth 2.3 3.9 2.7 5.1 4.9 (0.3) 7.6 4.8 4.0 3.9
Current account balance/GDP (3.5) (2.9) (5.2) (4.8) (6.9) (4.1) (4.1) (4.5) (4.6) (4.5)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 100.4 97.8 103.3 103.7 107.6 99.4 98.5 94.6 95.8 96.0
Narrow net external debt/CAR 67.8 60.9 57.6 44.7 42.4 44.8 32.6 34.2 33.7 32.9
GG balance/GDP (3.5) (1.2) 1.1 0.6 (0.2) (8.1) (5.1) (3.9) (2.9) (1.9)
GG net debt/GDP 63.9 62.0 52.7 48.4 44.5 49.4 48.2 49.2 49.3 48.7
CPI inflation 1.4 1.1 3.1 2.0 1.9 1.6 4.0 4.1 2.0 1.8
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 45.1 44.1 42.8 44.0 44.9 49.1 48.6 48.5 49.1 49.9
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Sharjah (BBB-/Stable/A-3)

Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 4
  • Economic assessment: 3
  • External assessment: 2
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 6
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 5
  • Monetary assessment: 5
Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook reflects our expectation that Sharjah's large fiscal deficits will decrease through 2024. We expect the government's fiscal trajectory to become clearer in the first quarter of next year, after the 2022 budget is announced.

We could raise our ratings if net general government debt or debt-service costs reversed course and fell materially. However, we view this as unlikely over the next two years.

We could lower the ratings if the government's fiscal position deteriorated further--for instance, if government deficits increased beyond our forecasts, accelerating the buildup of net general government debt toward 60% of GDP, or if we perceived a rising share of contingent liabilities on the government's balance sheet.

Table 49

Sharjah
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 16.5 17.1 22.8 23.3 23.2 21.7 22.5 23.3 23.9 24.5
GDP growth 0.1 3.0 33.5 (1.7) 4.0 (9.8) 4.0 2.5 2.0 2.0
GDP per capita growth (0.9) 2.8 30.9 (2.4) 2.5 (6.0) 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0
Current account balance/GDP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Narrow net external debt/CAR N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
GG balance/GDP (4.2) (3.2) (2.2) (3.2) (4.9) (8.4) (9.4) (6.9) (6.5) (5.9)
GG net debt/GDP 9.7 13.5 12.1 15.0 21.1 32.8 39.9 45.7 50.7 54.9
CPI inflation 3.4 0.8 2.7 4.5 (3.0) (0.3) 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

St Helena (BBB-/Stable/A-3)

  • Analyst: samira.mensah@spglobal.com
  • Latest publication: (Full Analysis) St. Helena, Oct. 4, 2021
Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 3
  • Economic assessment: 5
  • External assessment: 4
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 3
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 1
  • Monetary assessment: 5
Outlook: Stable

S&P Global Ratings' stable outlook balances our expectation of strong and ongoing support from the U.K. government, against the narrow economic base and constraints emerging from the pandemic.

We would lower the ratings if financial support from the U.K. (unsolicited; AA/Stable/A-1+) diminishes and St. Helena's tax revenue is unable to compensate, or if the U.K.'s external position deteriorates more than we currently expect. We could also lower the ratings if pressure from the pandemic or other severe natural disasters have a long-term and sustained impact on St. Helena's economy.

We could raise the ratings if St. Helena's economic growth accelerates faster than we currently forecast and tax collection rises markedly.

(for the latest research update, published on April 3, 2020, click here)

Table 50

St Helena
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 13.3 11.2 10.0 10.9 10.2 10.8 11.8 12.1 12.7 13.4
GDP growth 5.1 (7.1) (1.7) 2.5 (3.4) (3.0) 0.5 2.0 2.5 2.5
GDP per capita growth 6.5 (5.0) (5.6) 3.2 (4.2) 3.5 (0.3) 1.2 1.7 1.7
Current account balance/GDP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Narrow net external debt/CAR N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
GG balance/GDP 1.8 (0.5) (0.7) (1.1) (1.3) 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
GG net debt/GDP (8.1) (7.5) (14.6) (12.3) (11.3) (9.5) (9.2) (8.8) (8.3) (7.9)
CPI inflation 1.9 2.6 5.1 3.8 3.3 1.1 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.0
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 31.6 37.4 47.0 44.8 43.6 43.7 42.7 41.8 41.6 41.4
A free and  interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri

South Africa (BB-/Stable/B)

  • Analyst: ravi.bhatia@spglobal.com
  • Latest publication: (Full Analysis) South Africa, Nov. 22, 2021
Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 4
  • Economic assessment: 5
  • External assessment: 3
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 6
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 6
  • Monetary assessment: 2
Outlook: Stable

The outlook on both the foreign and local currency ratings is stable, since South Africa's credit strengths--particularly a credible central bank, a flexible exchange rate, an actively traded currency, and deep capital markets--should help counterbalance relatively low medium-term economic growth and ongoing fiscal pressures.

We could lower the ratings if South Africa's economy fails to recover during the forecast period and fiscal financing or external pressures mount. This could, for example, arise from further financing risks emanating from contingent liabilities, including the public electricity utility Eskom, or tightening financing conditions increasing the government's interest burden as a proportion of revenue.

We could raise the ratings if economic growth is significantly higher than we currently expect over multiple years, leading to higher wealth levels and real per capita GDP growth, as well as a significant improvement in the government's debt-to-GDP ratio.

(for the latest research update, published on May 21, 2021, click here)

Table 51

South Africa
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 6.3 5.8 6.7 7.0 6.6 5.6 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.7
GDP growth 1.3 0.7 1.2 1.5 0.1 (6.4) 4.9 2.4 1.5 1.5
GDP per capita growth (0.2) (0.9) (0.5) (0.6) (1.7) (7.8) 3.2 0.7 (0.2) (0.2)
Current account balance/GDP (4.3) (2.7) (2.4) (3.0) (2.6) 2.0 3.1 0.2 (0.5) (0.9)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 111.1 105.5 104.3 108.2 108.5 95.4 88.6 94.3 95.9 97.2
Narrow net external debt/CAR 8.5 29.3 45.4 44.6 49.6 50.1 36.8 39.2 41.3 42.5
GG balance/GDP (3.4) (3.3) (3.8) (3.7) (5.2) (10.1) (7.8) (6.9) (6.3) (5.5)
GG net debt/GDP 42.6 43.6 45.2 48.4 55.0 66.2 68.4 73.2 76.8 78.8
CPI inflation 4.6 6.3 5.3 4.7 4.1 3.3 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.6
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 73.3 71.1 70.6 71.2 72.1 76.8 71.4 71.9 71.9 71.3
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Tajikistan (B-/Stable/B)

Rating score snapshot:

  • Institutional assessment: 5
  • Economic assessment: 6
  • External assessment: 5
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 6
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 4
  • Monetary assessment: 5
Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook reflects our expectation that Tajikistan's debt-service obligations will remain moderate in the next 12 months, owing to the still-high component of concessional borrowing in the government's debt stock, which helps offset risks from its still-weak fiscal and external performance.

We could lower the ratings if the strain on Tajikistan's government debt-servicing capacity were to significantly increase, for example, as a result of sharply widening fiscal deficits, or the government taking on substantial amounts of commercial debt. Downward pressure on the rating may also build if current account imbalances widen significantly, eroding foreign currency reserves, or if geopolitical risks escalate.

Conversely, we could consider an upgrade if we see a sustained improvement in Tajikistan's fiscal and external performance, as evidenced by a sharp deceleration in the accumulation of government debt and an external position closer to balance.

Table 52

Tajikistan
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9
GDP growth 6.2 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.5 4.5 6.0 6.1 6.5 7.0
GDP per capita growth 3.9 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.0 2.1 3.7 3.8 4.2 4.7
Current account balance/GDP (6.1) (4.2) 2.2 (5.0) (2.3) 4.5 (1.1) (3.2) (4.0) (4.6)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 136.4 127.7 102.4 102.7 101.6 97.3 88.3 86.6 90.7 95.6
Narrow net external debt/CAR 88.8 91.2 76.4 85.3 85.9 64.9 66.3 77.8 89.2 98.6
GG balance/GDP (1.9) (8.4) (5.1) (3.3) (1.7) (2.9) (2.6) (2.4) (2.1) (2.0)
GG net debt/GDP 25.3 34.9 39.2 40.2 37.0 40.7 41.7 42.9 43.6 43.1
CPI inflation 5.1 6.1 6.7 5.4 8.0 9.4 9.0 8.7 7.8 7.0
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 23.6 18.4 14.2 12.8 12.4 13.0 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.4
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Togo (B/Stable/B)

Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 5
  • Economic assessment: 6
  • External assessment: 6
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 3
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 4
  • Monetary assessment: 5
Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook reflects our view that Togo will continue to implement structural economic reforms, leading to gradual improvement in economic and budgetary performance.

Ratings upside could arise if Togo's economic growth is markedly stronger than we forecast, while external and budget deficits, and net government debt as a share of GDP, decrease materially.

The ratings could come under pressure if the government's budgetary performance deteriorates beyond our expectations and real GDP growth rates are significantly weaker than our forecasts. We could also lower the ratings if we saw pronounced pressure on WAEMU's international reserves and on the West African CFA franc (XOF) to euro exchange rate.

Table 53

Togo
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1
GDP growth 5.7 5.6 4.4 5.0 5.5 1.8 4.9 5.5 5.5 5.5
GDP per capita growth 3.1 2.9 1.8 2.4 2.9 (0.7) 2.4 3.0 3.0 3.0
Current account balance/GDP (8.2) (7.2) (1.5) (2.6) (0.8) (1.5) (2.3) (2.2) (2.1) (1.8)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 125.2 134.6 148.5 142.6 142.6 130.4 126.9 116.3 112.5 110.7
Narrow net external debt/CAR 80.5 125.4 109.7 122.1 110.2 118.9 110.0 110.3 107.8 103.5
GG balance/GDP (6.6) (7.1) (0.2) (0.6) 1.6 (7.0) (4.0) (2.5) (1.0) (1.0)
GG net debt/GDP 45.7 49.7 46.1 46.2 37.8 43.1 44.2 43.6 41.7 40.0
CPI inflation 2.6 1.3 (1.0) 0.9 0.7 1.8 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.5
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 31.8 32.2 31.6 30.8 30.7 29.9 29.0 28.0 27.2 26.5
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Turkey (B+/Stable/B)

Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 5
  • Economic assessment: 4
  • External assessment: 6
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 4
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 4
  • Monetary assessment: 4
Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook considers the lingering risks from Turkey's economic imbalances over the next 12 months. These are partly offset by the resilience of Turkey's private sector and the manageable stock of net general government debt, which leaves room for a fiscal policy response, should one be required.

We could lower the ratings if we saw a heightened risk of banking system distress, implying potential contingent liabilities for the government. This could be the case, for example, if banks' access to foreign funding deteriorated, or domestic residents dollarized their savings further, which is not our base-case scenario. Weakened asset quality following the large-scale credit stimulus in 2020 could also put pressure on the banking system, particularly state-owned banks that saw their balance sheets expand more rapidly last year.

We could consider an upgrade if Turkey's balance-of-payments position strengthened beyond our projections, particularly the central bank's net foreign-exchange reserves. We could also raise the ratings if we observed sustained and enhanced predictability of public policy and effectiveness of monetary policy.

Table 54

Turkey
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 11.0 10.9 10.6 9.5 9.2 8.6 8.7 7.2 7.6 7.9
GDP growth 6.1 3.3 7.5 3.0 0.9 1.8 9.8 3.7 3.1 3.0
GDP per capita growth 4.7 1.9 6.2 1.5 (0.5) 1.2 8.4 2.4 1.8 1.7
Current account balance/GDP (3.2) (3.1) (4.8) (2.8) 0.7 (4.9) (2.0) (1.6) (1.7) (1.8)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 165.8 166.0 153.2 155.1 132.5 148.9 162.0 144.8 145.5 148.5
Narrow net external debt/CAR 119.2 121.1 126.1 106.3 88.0 113.0 77.6 80.4 81.5 82.5
GG balance/GDP (1.0) (1.7) (2.0) (2.8) (3.2) (2.9) (2.5) (3.0) (3.0) (3.0)
GG net debt/GDP 23.4 24.3 23.8 27.0 28.9 34.9 41.9 38.1 38.2 38.2
CPI inflation 7.7 7.8 11.1 16.3 15.2 12.3 18.5 20.5 9.8 9.8
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 59.7 62.0 62.9 58.9 56.6 65.8 67.1 63.1 64.6 66.1
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Uganda (B/Stable/B)

  • Analyst: leon.bezuidenhout@spglobal.com
  • Latest publication: (Full Analysis) Uganda, Dec. 13, 2021
Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 5
  • Economic assessment: 6
  • External assessment: 5
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 6
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 6
  • Monetary assessment: 4
Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook balances risks associated with Uganda's high fiscal and external deficits over the next year against our expectation that the country will maintain access to official financing on preferential terms.

We could lower the ratings on Uganda if its access to concessional debt from official creditors is disrupted. The ratings could also come under pressure should Uganda's economic performance deteriorate further, either because of a prolonged impact of COVID-19 or because the expected pick up in foreign direct investment (FDI) doesn't materialize as we currently expect. Both could lead to higher fiscal and external financing needs than we currently anticipate.

Although unlikely in the near to medium term, we could raise the ratings if Uganda's economy recovered rapidly on the back of further investment, leading to material improvement in its fiscal and external metrics.

(for the latest research update, published on June 11, 2021, click here)

Table 55

Uganda
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
GDP growth 5.2 4.8 3.1 6.3 6.4 3.0 3.4 4.0 5.0 5.0
GDP per capita growth 1.6 1.0 (0.7) 2.4 2.7 (0.4) 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.7
Current account balance/GDP (6.2) (4.5) (3.4) (5.4) (7.0) (6.8) (10.0) (9.2) (9.2) (9.1)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 102.9 103.1 96.4 97.1 107.2 113.0 124.4 127.1 128.0 131.3
Narrow net external debt/CAR 50.1 62.1 61.2 70.2 79.1 102.8 132.1 138.7 156.2 172.9
GG balance/GDP (3.8) (4.0) (3.3) (4.1) (4.9) (7.1) (9.8) (8.0) (6.0) (6.0)
GG net debt/GDP 20.9 24.1 26.6 29.8 30.6 37.2 43.1 48.2 50.8 53.0
CPI inflation 5.4 5.5 5.6 2.6 2.1 2.8 2.5 3.0 5.0 5.0
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 12.4 12.0 11.7 11.7 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.0 13.0
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Ukraine (B/Stable/B)

  • Analyst: karen.vartapetov@spglobal.com
  • Latest publication: (Full Analysis) Ukraine, Sept. 13, 2021
Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 5
  • Economic assessment: 5
  • External assessment: 5
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 3
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 5
  • Monetary assessment: 4
Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook balances the risks to Ukraine's economy from continued delays in accessing concessional financing, the weak external environment, and the potential for a reversal of past reforms, against the country's external buffers.

We could lower the ratings if disruptions to funding from concessional programs or capital markets over the next year call into question the government's ability to meet debt service obligations. Such disruptions could happen if the government backtracks on key reforms, such as ensuring the independence of the NBU, which acts as both the monetary authority and financial system regulator.

We could raise the ratings over the next year if we anticipate that public finances would consolidate faster than we currently forecast. This could result from a stronger economic recovery and discretionary policies. The ratings could also benefit should Ukraine's external liquidity metrics outperform our projections.

(for the latest research update, published on March 12, 2021, click here)

Table 56

Ukraine
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 2.1 2.2 2.6 3.1 3.7 3.7 4.0 4.4 4.6 4.7
GDP growth (9.8) 2.4 2.5 3.4 3.2 (4.0) 3.3 3.5 3.0 3.0
GDP per capita growth (4.5) 2.9 2.9 3.9 3.8 (3.5) 4.1 4.1 3.6 3.6
Current account balance/GDP 5.6 (2.0) (3.1) (4.9) (2.7) 3.4 (0.6) (1.9) (3.4) (4.3)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 149.9 118.9 115.6 115.0 106.8 94.7 99.2 100.2 102.3 105.2
Narrow net external debt/CAR 152.3 143.1 119.2 103.5 90.8 94.3 87.1 81.7 81.3 83.4
GG balance/GDP (3.2) (2.2) (1.4) (2.1) (2.1) (5.7) (4.0) (3.5) (3.0) (2.5)
GG net debt/GDP 76.1 78.7 69.0 58.8 48.6 58.7 57.5 57.3 58.1 58.2
CPI inflation 48.7 13.9 14.4 11.0 7.9 2.7 9.6 6.6 5.0 5.0
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 52.1 42.8 34.6 30.6 24.7 22.7 21.1 20.5 20.4 20.3
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Uzbekistan (BB-/Stable/B)

  • Analyst: maximillian.mcgraw@spglobal.com
  • Latest publication: (Full Analysis) Uzbekistan, Dec. 6, 2021
Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 5
  • Economic assessment: 5
  • External assessment: 3
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 5
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 2
  • Monetary assessment: 4
Outlook: Stable

The stable outlook reflects S&P Global Ratings' expectation that fiscal and external debt will continue to increase rapidly but remain at moderate levels over the next 12-24 months. We expect GDP growth to exceed 5% annually as of 2022.

We could lower the ratings if we were to expect a faster or more significant deterioration in Uzbekistan's fiscal and external balance sheets. This could happen if the country's economic liberalization and increasing integration with the global economy result in more elevated imports and current account deficits. Absent significant inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI), this could result in a high accumulation of debt-creating flows and external asset drawdowns.

We could also lower the ratings if dollarization levels in the economy increase significantly, or key SOEs weaken, leading to contingent liabilities on the government's balance sheet.

Although unlikely in the next year, we could raise the ratings if Uzbekistan's economic reforms and increased integration with the global economy result in stronger economic growth potential and improving fiscal and external metrics.

(for the latest research update, published on June 4, 2021, click here)

Table 57

Uzbekistan
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 2.7 2.7 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.3
GDP growth 7.2 5.9 4.4 5.4 5.7 1.7 6.5 5.5 5.5 5.5
GDP per capita growth 5.3 4.1 2.7 3.5 3.7 (0.2) 4.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
Current account balance/GDP 1.0 0.3 2.4 (6.8) (5.6) (5.0) (6.0) (5.7) (5.2) (5.2)
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 69.7 73.8 70.5 80.1 81.6 77.0 77.1 86.3 90.4 92.9
Narrow net external debt/CAR (82.0) (91.9) (78.3) (52.3) (24.0) (12.7) 14.4 34.2 43.9 43.9
GG balance/GDP 0.3 (0.5) (1.8) (2.0) (3.8) (4.3) (5.8) (3.5) (3.1) (2.8)
GG net debt/GDP (10.6) (12.7) (17.6) (8.7) 2.5 9.1 15.4 18.5 20.5 21.9
CPI inflation 5.5 5.5 13.8 17.5 14.5 13.0 11.0 10.5 10.0 9.5
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 18.2 20.8 35.1 39.7 40.8 47.0 52.6 58.0 61.7 65.6
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Zambia (SD/SD)

  • Analyst: maximillian.mcgraw@spglobal.com
  • Latest publication: (Full Analysis) Zambia, Aug. 23, 2021
Rating score snapshot:
  • Institutional assessment: 6
  • Economic assessment: 6
  • External assessment: 6
  • Fiscal assessment – Flexibility and performance: 6
  • Fiscal assessment – Debt burden: 6
  • Monetary assessment: 5
Outlook:

Ratings at 'SD' (selective default) do not carry outlooks. These ratings express a condition, default, and not a forward-looking opinion of default probability.

The negative outlook on the long-term local currency sovereign rating indicates the possibility of nonpayment on Zambia's domestic commercial financial obligations over the next six to 12 months.

We would lower the local currency ratings within the next 12 months should government fail to pay its local currency commercial financial obligations.

We could raise our foreign currency ratings out of 'SD' should Zambia and its external commercial creditors agree to a debt restructuring deal.

We could raise the local currency ratings if Zambia improved its fiscal liquidity position or reduced the size of its fiscal deficits and debt burden over the next 12 months. For instance, a marked reduction in its domestic supplier arrears could indicate that its fiscal liquidity position had improved.

(for the latest research update, published on Oct. 21, 2020, click here)

Table 58

Zambia
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f
GDP per capita (in ‘000) 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2
GDP growth 2.9 3.8 3.5 4.0 1.4 (3.0) 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.5
GDP per capita growth (0.2) 0.7 0.5 1.1 (1.5) (5.8) (1.4) (0.9) (0.4) (0.4)
Current account balance/GDP (2.8) (3.4) (1.7) (1.3) 0.6 12.6 7.0 5.1 3.2 1.9
Gross external financing needs/CAR&FXR 103.4 120.1 116.7 116.2 117.2 100.2 109.3 104.2 108.4 111.4
Narrow net external debt/CAR 90.8 110.5 112.0 105.2 146.3 145.4 138.2 133.9 140.2 145.8
GG balance/GDP (9.9) (6.0) (7.6) (7.4) (8.5) (15.2) (9.5) (7.5) (7.0) (6.5)
GG net debt/GDP 54.3 57.1 58.0 69.0 84.2 117.0 112.9 112.1 111.2 110.0
CPI inflation 10.1 17.9 6.6 7.5 9.2 15.7 20.0 15.0 10.0 10.0
Bank credit to resident private sector/GDP 16.7 12.8 11.4 12.0 12.8 11.9 11.4 11.3 11.2 11.2
Note: A free and interactive version of a larger number of sovereign risk indicators can be found at spratings.com/sri. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. CAR--Current account receipts. FXR--Foreign exchange reserves. GG--General government. CPI--Consumer price index. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Related Research

Primary Credit Analyst:Frank Gill, Madrid + 34 91 788 7213;
frank.gill@spglobal.com
Secondary Contact:Samuel Tilleray, London + 442071768255;
samuel.tilleray@spglobal.com

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