(Editor's Note: This article and the data supporting it discuss developments through Oct. 31, 2021. Developments after this date will be included in future articles.)
- Rising stars are outpacing fallen angels in 2021, with a net increase of four in October.
- The gap between potential fallen angels and potential rising stars has fallen to the lowest level since February 2018.
- At 37 potential rising stars, the total is the highest since April 2007. Excluding one issuer whose subsidiaries account for 11 of the total, it is still the highest in over two years.
- Potential fallen angels stayed relatively flat in October, with media and entertainment still the largest contributor.
Positive Momentum Returns To Rising Stars
October saw no new fallen angels (issuers downgraded to speculative grade, 'BB+' or below, from investment-grade, 'BBB-' or above), keeping the year-to-date count of fallen angels at 20. In contrast, the addition of four new rising stars (issuers that were upgraded to investment-grade, 'BBB-' or above, from speculative grade, 'BB+' or below) in October expanded the year-to-date count of rising stars to 27, a significant improvement over the full-year counts of 15 and five recorded in 2019 and 2020, respectively.
Moreover, since 2020, there has been more than a two-fold drop in the number of potential fallen angels and a simultaneous rise in the number of potential rising stars, which is at the highest level since February 2019. These trends are global, caused by improving economic and credit conditions. Despite positive trends, actual net upgrades (across all rating categories) as of the end of September only represented about 12% of the net COVID-induced downgrades in 2020, so significant further progress is required to return to pre-pandemic levels.
The number of potential rising stars (issuers rated 'BB+' with either a positive outlook or CreditWatch) increased to 37 in October 2021, although it should be noted that 11 of the new additions this month relate to subsidiaries of one specific issuer (First Energy Corp.; see "FirstEnergy Corp. Subsidiary Ratings Raised; On CreditWatch Positive," Oct. 19, 2021). This is the highest monthly total since we first began tracking this data in April 2007. Excluding First Energy Corp.'s subsidiaries, the total potential rising stars as of end-October is 26--still the highest since August 2019.
|Additions To And Removals From Potential Rising Stars In October 2021|
AngloGold Ashanti Ltd.
Hrvatska Elektroprivreda d.d.
Aristocrat Leisure Ltd.
Zijin Mining Group Co. Ltd.
American Transmission Systems Inc.
Cleveland Electric Illuminating Co.
Jersey Central Power & Light Co.
Metropolitan Edison Co.
Monongahela Power Co.
Ohio Edison Co.
Pennsylvania Electric Co.
Potomac Edison Co.
Toledo Edison Co.
Trans-Allegheny Interstate Line Co.
West Penn Power Co.
|Data as of Oct. 31, 2021. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.|
Underpinned by the positive CreditWatch statuses on FirstEnergy Corp.'s 11 subsidiaries, U.S.-based issuers from the utilities sector led the count of potential rising stars, although this sector also accounts for the third-most potential fallen angels globally (see charts 5 and 8).
The Count Of Potential Fallen Angels Is Stable
Potential fallen angels (issuers rated 'BBB-' with either a negative outlook or CreditWatch) increased to 48 in October from 47 in September 2021.
|Additions To And Removals From Potential Fallen Angels In October 2021|
Inter Pipeline Ltd.
Southwest Gas Holdings Inc.
|Data as of Oct. 31, 2021. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.|
The incremental cost of funding for a speculative-grade issuer (relative to investment-grade) remains low but is creeping up. The difference in spreads between 'BB+' and 'BBB-' hovered around an average of 69 basis points (bps) in October 2021, slightly up from 64 bps in September but still much lower than 178 bps a year before.
Media and entertainment and financial institutions continued to lead the count of potential fallen angels (see chart 5). Issuers from the European region accounted for a majority of the potential fallen angels in these sectors. While most companies in the media and entertainment sector are expected to see credit metrics improve in 2021, it will take the out-of-home segment (cinemas, sports events, concerts, and trade shows and conferences) longer to recover--potentially until 2023--due to continued pressure from the pandemic on their leverage and cash flow (see "Industry Top Trends Midyear 2021: Resilience, Recovery, Risks," July 20, 2021).
Fallen angels are defined as previously investment-grade issuers with bonds outstanding that have been downgraded into speculative-grade (i.e. from 'BBB-' or above, to 'BB+' or below). Potential fallen angels are defined as issuers rated 'BBB-' by S&P Global Ratings with negative outlooks or ratings on CreditWatch with negative implications, and which currently have bonds outstanding.
Rising stars are defined as previously speculative-grade issuers with bonds outstanding that have been upgraded into investment-grade (i.e. from 'BB+' and below, to 'BBB-' and above). Potential rising stars are defined as issuers rated 'BB+' by S&P Global Ratings with positive outlooks or ratings on CreditWatch with positive implications, and which currently have bonds outstanding.
All four of the above definitions include all rated issuers with valid outstanding debt at the time of the rating action. Valid debt includes issuer level debt (both secured and unsecured), bank loans, subordinated debt, medium term notes, preferred stock, convertible debt, and drawdowns under MTN programs and excludes commercial paper programs, shelf registrations, certificates of deposit, and debt rated on a confidential basis. Moreover, if a subsidiary's parent is itself a fallen angel, rising star, potential fallen angel, or potential rising star, only the parent is counted in the list.
|Fallen Angels Count Remains At 20 Through October 2021|
|Date||Issuer||To||From||Sector/subsector||Country||Rated debt affected (mil. US$)|
|2/5/2021||Hexcel Corp.||BB+||BBB-||Aerospace and defense||U.S.||700|
|2/17/2021||TechnipFMC Plc||BB+||BBB+||Oil and gas||U.K.||2,572|
|3/16/2021||Host Hotels & Resorts Inc.||BB+||BBB-||Media and entertainment||U.S.||4,750|
|3/25/2021||Empresa Nacional del Petroleo||BB+||BBB-||Utilities||Chile||2,480|
|4/2/2021||Kingdom of Morocco||BB+||BBB-||Sovereign||Morocco||8,773|
|4/16/2021||OCP S.A.||BB+||BBB-||Chemicals, packaging, and environmental services||Morocco||2,850|
|4/22/2021||G4S PLC (Allied Universal Topco LLC)||B||BBB-||Consumer products||U.K.||1,867|
|5/19/2021||Republic of Colombia||BB+||BBB-||Sovereign||Colombia||30,184|
|5/20/2021||Ecopetrol S.A.||BB+||BBB-||Oil and gas||Colombia||9,850|
|5/20/2021||Grupo de Inversiones Suramericana S.A.||BB+||BBB-||Diversified||Colombia||550|
|5/20/2021||Financiera de Desarrollo Territorial S.A. FINDETER||BB+||BBB-||Financial institutions||Colombia||500|
|7/26/2021||Standard Industries Inc.||BB+||BBB-||Forest products and building materials||U.S.||7,491|
|7/26/2021||Rakuten Group Inc.||BB+||BBB-||High technology||Japan||3,726|
|8/4/2021||Carpenter Technology Corp.||BB+||BBB-||Metals, mining, and steel||U.S.||700|
|8/13/2021||BrightSphere Investment Group Inc.||BB+||BBB-||Financial institutions||U.S.||400|
|8/20/2021||Resorts World Las Vegas LLC (Genting Bhd.)||BB+||BBB-||Media and entertainment||U.S.||1,750|
|8/20/2021||Genting New York LLC (Genting Bhd.)||BB+||BBB-||Media and entertainment||U.S.||525|
|9/2/2021||Entergy New Orleans, LLC (Entergy Corp)||BB+||BBB||Utilities||U.S.||325|
|9/10/2021||Perrigo Company plc||BB||BBB-||Health care||Ireland||1,200|
|Data as of Oct. 31, 2021. Fallen angels are defined as previously investment-grade issuers with bonds outstanding that have been downgraded into speculative-grade (i.e. from 'BBB-' or above, to 'BB+' or below). Includes all rated issuers with valid outstanding debt at the time of the rating action. Valid debt includes issuer level debt (both secured and unsecured), bank loans, subordinated debt, medium term notes, preferred stock, convertible debt, and drawdowns under MTN programs and excludes commercial paper programs, shelf registrations, certificates of deposit, and debt rated on a confidential basis. Moreover, if a subsidiary's parent is itself a fallen angel, only the parent is counted. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.|
|Potential Fallen Angels Count Increases To 48 After Two Additions And One Removal|
|'BBB-' rated issuers with negative outlooks or on CreditWatch with negative implications|
|Subsector||Issuer||CreditWatch Negative/Negative Outlook||New to the list this month||Country||Debt amount (mil. US$)|
|Utilities||Abertis Infraestructuras S.A.||Negative||Spain||19,491|
|Utilities||Adani Electricity Mumbai Ltd.||Negative||India||1,000|
|Financial institutions||AIB Group PLC||Negative||Ireland||7,987|
|Homebuilders/real estate co.||Altarea SCA||Negative||France||2,089|
|Media and entertainment||Amadeus IT Group S.A.||Negative||Spain||5,222|
|Financial institutions||Argo Group International Holdings Ltd.||Negative||U.S.||275|
|Transportation||Avolon Holdings Ltd.||Negative||Cayman Islands||7,637|
|Financial institutions||Bank of Ireland Group PLC||Negative||Ireland||9,169|
|Aerospace and defense||Boeing Co.||Negative||U.S.||58,923|
|Metals, mining, and steel||Cameco Corp.||Negative||Canada||810|
|Telecommunications||CAS Holding No.1 Ltd.||Negative||British Virgin Islands||3,532|
|Homebuilders/real estate co.||China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd.||Negative||Hong Kong||1,050|
|Utilities||Cleco Corporate Holdings LLC||Negative||U.S.||2,643|
|Forest products and building materials||Domtar Corp.||Watch Neg||U.S.||500|
|Utilities||Eesti Energia AS||Negative||Estonia||580|
|Merchant power||Enable Midstream Partners, LP||Negative||U.S.||1,850|
|Media and entertainment||Expedia Group Inc.,||Negative||U.S.||9,404|
|Financial institutions||FCE Bank PLC||Negative||U.K.||4,993|
|Homebuilders/real estate co.||First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust||Negative||Canada||1,904|
|Capital goods||Fluor Corp.||Negative||U.S.||1,680|
|Aerospace and defense||Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc.||Negative||U.S.||2,150|
|Media and entertainment||Hyatt Hotels Corp.||Watch Neg||U.S.||2,700|
|Media and entertainment||Informa PLC||Negative||U.K.||2,764|
|Midstream||Inter Pipeline Ltd.||Negative||Yes||Canada||3,768|
|Media and entertainment||InterContinental Hotels Group PLC||Negative||U.K.||2,837|
|Financial institutions||Intercorp Financial Services Inc.||Negative||Peru||600|
|Consumer products||ISS A/S||Negative||Denmark||2,437|
|Media and entertainment||ITV PLC||Negative||U.K.||1,973|
|Media and entertainment||JCDecaux S.A.||Negative||France||2,262|
|Media and entertainment||Las Vegas Sands Corp.||Negative||U.S.||10,300|
|Financial institutions||Marex Group PLC||Negative||U.K.||50|
|Media and entertainment||Marriott International Inc.||Negative||U.S.||9,987|
|Consumer products||Meituan||Negative||Cayman Islands||2,000|
|Consumer products||Molson Coors Beverage Co.||Negative||U.S.||6,328|
|Utilities||National Gas Co. of Trinidad & Tobago Ltd. (The)||Negative||Trinidad and Tobago||400|
|Automotive||Nissan Motor Co. Ltd.||Negative||Japan||17,871|
|Utilities||PT Pelabuhan Indonesia III (Persero)||Negative||Indonesia||500|
|Sovereign||Republic of Trinidad and Tobago||Negative||Trinidad and Tobago||2,231|
|Oil and gas||SK Innovation Co. Ltd.,||Negative||Korea||500|
|Homebuilders/real estate co.||SL Green Realty Corp.||Negative||U.S.||10,400|
|Utilities||Southwest Gas Holdings Inc.||Negative||Yes||U.S.||3,439|
|Consumer products||Steelcase Inc.||Negative||U.S.||450|
|Financial institutions||Tanner Servicios Financieros S.A.||Negative||Chile||490|
|Chemicals, packaging, and environmental services||UPL Corp. Ltd.||Negative||Mauritius||1,200|
|Automotive||Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co. Ltd.,||Negative||China||3,197|
|Data as of Oct. 31, 2021. Includes all rated issuers with valid outstanding debt at the time of the rating action. Valid debt includes issuer level debt (both secured and unsecured), bank loans, subordinated debt, medium term notes, preferred stock, convertible debt, and drawdowns under MTN programs and excludes commercial paper programs, shelf registrations, certificates of deposit, and debt rated on a confidential basis. This debt may be rated above or below the issuer credit rating. Potential fallen angels are defined as issuers rated ‘BBB-‘ by S&P Global Ratings with negative outlooks or ratings on CreditWatch with negative implications, and which currently have bonds outstanding. Moreover, if a subsidiary's parent is itself a potential fallen angel, only the parent is counted. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.|
|27 Rising Stars Through October 2021|
|Date||Issuer||To||From||Sector/subsector||Country||Rated debt affected (mil. US$)|
|1/7/2021||WPX Energy Inc.,||BBB-||BB-||Oil and gas||U.S.||4,750|
|1/8/2021||Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V.||BBB-||BB+||Automotive||Netherlands||25,561|
|1/13/2021||Parsley Energy, LLC.||BBB||BB||Oil and gas||U.S.||4,750|
|2/1/2021||Norbord Inc.||BBB-||BB||Forest products and building materials||Canada||665|
|2/23/2021||Advanced Micro Devices Inc.||BBB-||BB+||High technology||U.S.||1,305|
|2/24/2021||Smurfit Kappa Group PLC||BBB-||BB+||Forest products and building materials||Ireland||2,125|
|3/18/2021||QEP Resources Inc.||BBB-||B||Oil and gas||U.S.||1,600|
|3/18/2021||Grupo Cementos de Chihuahua S.A.B. de C.V.||BBB-||BB+||Forest products and building materials||Mexico||260|
|3/30/2021||Triton International Ltd.||BBB-||BB+||Transportation||Bermuda||6,098|
|4/5/2021||PulteGroup Inc.,||BBB-||BB+||Homebuilders/real estate co||U.S.||2,097|
|4/8/2021||Shimao Group Holdings Ltd.||BBB-||BB+||Homebuilders/real estate co||Cayman Islands||2,100|
|4/9/2021||MDC Holdings Inc.||BBB-||BB+||Homebuilders/real estate co||U.S.||900|
|4/22/2021||Qorvo Inc.,||BBB-||BB+||High technology||U.S.||1,550|
|5/6/2021||Double Eagle III Midco 1 LLC (DoublePoint Energy, LLC)||BBB||B-||Oil and gas||U.S.||550|
|5/26/2021||CDW Corp.||BBB-||BB+||High technology||U.S.||6,940|
|6/9/2021||Lennar Corp.||BBB-||BB+||Homebuilders/real estate co||U.S.||5,000|
|8/20/2021||CF Industries Inc. (CF Industries Holdings, Inc)||BBB-||BB+||Chemicals, packaging, and environmental services||U.S.||3,000|
|8/24/2021||KION Group AG||BBB-||BB+||Capital goods||Germany||584|
|9/2/2021||Braskem S.A. (Odebrecht S.A.)||BBB-||BB+||Chemicals, packaging, and environmental services||Brazil||3,250|
|9/7/2021||Tech Data Corp.||BBB-||BB||High technology||U.S.||1,000|
|9/21/2021||Holding Co. Metalloinvest JSC||BBB-||BB+||Metals, mining, and steel||Russia||800|
|9/29/2021||Dell Technologies Inc.||BBB||BB+||High technology||U.S.||86,536|
|10/5/2021||Hrvatska Elektroprivreda d.d.||BBB-||BB+||Utilities||Croatia||550|
|10/13/2021||Gazprombank JSC||BBB-||BB+||Financial Institutions||Russia||139|
|10/20/2021||Tata Steel Ltd. (Tata Sons Pte. Ltd.)||BBB-||BB||Metals, mining, and steel||India||2,300|
|10/25/2021||Netflix Inc.||BBB||BB+||Media and entertainment||U.S.||15,420|
|Data as of Oct. 31, 2021. Rising stars are defined as previously speculative-grade issuers with bonds outstanding that have been upgraded into investment-grade (i.e. from 'BB+' and below, to 'BBB-' and above). Includes all rated issuers with valid outstanding debt at the time of the rating action. Valid debt includes issuer level debt (both secured and unsecured), bank loans, subordinated debt, medium term notes, preferred stock, convertible debt, and drawdowns under MTN programs and excludes commercial paper programs, shelf registrations, certificates of deposit, and debt rated on a confidential basis. Moreover, if a subsidiary's parent is itself a rising star, only the parent is counted. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.|
|Potential Rising Stars Increase To A Record 37 Through October 2021|
|BB+' Rated Issuers with Positive Outlooks or on CreditWatch with Positive Implications|
|Subsector||Issuer||CreditWatch Positive/Positive Outlook||New to the list this month||Country||Rated debt affected (mil. US$)|
|Chemicals, packaging, and environmental services||Alpek, S.A.B. de C.V.||Positive||Mexico||2,050|
|Utilities||American Transmission Systems Inc.,||Watch Pos||Yes||U.S.||1,400|
|Metals, mining, and steel||AngloGold Ashanti Ltd.||Positive||Yes||South Africa||2,500|
|Media and entertainment||Aristocrat Leisure Ltd.||Positive||Yes||Australia||11,161|
|Financial institutions||Cadence Bancorp.||Watch Pos||U.S.||85|
|Financial institutions||CIT Group Inc.,||Watch Pos||U.S.||5,151|
|Utilities||Cleveland Electric Illuminating Co.||Watch Pos||Yes||U.S.||1,250|
|Financial institutions||Clipper Acquisitions Corp.||Positive||U.S.||675|
|Oil and gas||Continental Resources Inc.||Positive||U.S.||4,200|
|Media and entertainment||CoStar Group Inc.||Positive||U.S.||1,000|
|Financial institutions||FleetCor Technologies Inc.,||Positive||U.S.||4,375|
|Metals, mining, and steel||Gold Fields Ltd.||Positive||South Africa||1,000|
|Health care||HCA Healthcare Inc.,||Positive||U.S.||39,444|
|Health care||Hill-Rom Holdings Inc.||Watch Pos||U.S.||475|
|Chemicals, packaging, and environmental services||Huntsman Corp.||Positive||U.S.||1,898|
|Consumer products||JBS S.A.||Positive||Brazil||12,550|
|Utilities||Jersey Central Power & Light Co.||Watch Pos||Yes||U.S.||2,198|
|Automotive||Lithia Motors Inc.,||Positive||U.S.||1,750|
|Insurance||Magellan Health Inc.||Watch Pos||U.S.||400|
|Utilities||Metropolitan Edison Co.||Watch Pos||Yes||U.S.||1,050|
|Metals, mining, and steel||Minsur S.A.||Positive||Peru||450|
|Utilities||Monongahela Power Co.||Watch Pos||Yes||U.S.||1,450|
|Financial institutions||New York Community Bancorp Inc.,||Positive||U.S.||1,040|
|Consumer products||Newell Brands Inc.||Positive||U.S.||7,560|
|Utilities||Ohio Edison Co.||Watch Pos||Yes||U.S.||675|
|Utilities||Pennsylvania Electric Co.||Watch Pos||Yes||U.S.||1,050|
|Utilities||Potomac Edison Co.||Watch Pos||Yes||U.S.||175|
|Financial institutions||Texas Capital Bancshares Inc.,||Positive||U.S.||1,100|
|Capital goods||The Weir Group PLC||Positive||U.K.||800|
|Utilities||Toledo Edison Co.||Watch Pos||Yes||U.S.||450|
|Utilities||Trans-Allegheny Interstate Line Co.||Watch Pos||Yes||U.S.||550|
|Chemicals, packaging, and environmental services||Verallia S.A.||Positive||Yes||France||580|
|Automotive||Volvo Car AB||Positive||Sweden||2,497|
|Utilities||West Penn Power Co.||Watch Pos||Yes||U.S.||250|
|Metals, mining, and steel||Yamana Gold Inc.||Positive||Canada||2,050|
|Data as of Oct. 31, 2021. Potential rising stars are defined as issuers rated ‘BB+‘ by S&P Global Ratings with positive outlooks or ratings on CreditWatch with positive implications, and which currently have bonds outstanding. This debt may be rated above or below the issuer credit rating. Includes all rated issuers with valid outstanding debt at the time of the rating action. Valid debt includes issuer level debt (both secured and unsecured), bank loans, subordinated debt, medium term notes, preferred stock, convertible debt and drawdowns under MTN programs and excludes commercial paper programs, shelf registrations, certificates of deposit, and debt rated on a confidential basis. Moreover, if a subsidiary's parent is itself a potential rising star, only the parent is counted. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.|
- Distressed Debt Amount Falls By Over 70%, Nov. 12, 2021
- Gap Between Potential Downgrades And Potential Upgrades Is At The Lowest Level Since February 2019, Nov. 5, 2021
- Glass Packaging Producer Verallia S.A. Outlook Revised To Positive On Tighter Financial Policy; 'BB+' Rating Affirmed, Oct. 29, 2021
- Inter Pipeline Ltd. Outlook Revised To Negative On Completion Of Acquisition; 'BBB-' Rating Affirmed, Oct. 29, 2021
- Netflix Inc. Upgraded To 'BBB' From 'BB+' On Improving Margins And Positive Cash Flow Expectations, Outlook Stable, Oct. 25, 2021
- Aristocrat Leisure Outlook Revised To Positive On Proposed Playtech Plc Acquisition; 'BB+' Rating Affirmed, Oct. 24, 2021
- Tesla Inc. Upgraded To 'BB+' On Solid Demand Prospects And Robust Financial Metrics; Outlook Positive, Oct. 22, 2021
- Outlook On Suedzucker Revised To Stable From Negative On Improved Credit Metrics; 'BBB-' Rating Affirmed, Oct. 21, 2021
- Tata Steel Rating Raised To 'BBB-' On Reassessment Of Group Support; Outlook Stable, Oct. 20, 2021
- FirstEnergy Corp. Subsidiary Ratings Raised; On CreditWatch Positive, Oct. 19, 2021
- South Africa-based Gold Miner AngloGold Ashanti’s Proposed Senior Unsecured Notes Rated 'BB+', Oct. 18, 2021
- Various Positive Actions Taken On 14 Russian Banks And Several Related Entities On System's Reduced Economic Risks, Oct. 13, 2021
- 'BBB' Pulse: M&A Rebound Could Put The Corporate Credit Recovery On The Back Burner, Oct. 11, 2021
- Southwest Gas Holdings And Southwest Gas Corp. Outlooks Revised To Negative On Questar Acquisition, Ratings Affirmed, Oct. 5, 2021
- Hrvatska Elektroprivreda Upgraded To 'BBB-' On Effective Risk Management; Outlook Stable, Oct. 5, 2021
- Industry Top Trends Midyear 2021: Resilience, Recovery, Risks, July 20, 2021
This report does not constitute a rating action.
|Credit Markets Research:||Vincent R Conti, Singapore + 65 6216 1188;|
|Patrick Drury Byrne, Dublin (00353) 1 568 0605;|
|Research Contributor:||Tanya Dias, CRISIL Global Analytical Center, an S&P affiliate, Mumbai|
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