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Subprime Auto Loan ABS Tracker: Losses Have Improved, But Uncertainty Remains

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Subprime Auto Loan ABS Tracker: Losses Have Improved, But Uncertainty Remains

(Editor's Note: In the original version of this report published May 17, 2021, the 2020 and Q1 2020 data were misstated in table 1 and the text above it. A corrected version follows.)

Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, cumulative collateral gross losses (CGLs) on U.S. subprime auto loan asset-backed securities (ABS) have improved for the more recent 2018-2020 vintages. In S&P Global Ratings' subprime Auto Loan Static Index (ALSI), CGLs peaked in the 22.4%-24.7% range for the 2015-2017 vintages with over 40 months of performance data (see chart 1). The 2018 vintage is trending better than the prior vintages, with CGLs of approximately 16.6% at month 27, compared with 18.0% for the 2017 vintage at month 27. The 2019 vintage was initially performing in line with the 2018 vintage, but its performance improved over the past 10 months, with CGLs for the 2019 vintage trending 150 basis points (bps) lower. At month 16, the 2019 vintage has experienced CGLs of 9.1%, compared with 10.8% and 10.6% for the 2017 and 2018 vintages, respectively.

Chart 1

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Performance has been better than expected for the first three quarterly cohorts of 2020. Gross losses at month 12 was 5% for the first-quarter 2020 vintage, compared with 7.31% and 6.71% for the 2018 and 2019 vintages, respectively. Although still early, the second- and third-quarter 2020 vintages are trending in line with the first-quarter 2020 vintage.

Subprime issuers' loss deterioration peaked with the 2015 and 2016 vintages, with most issuers reporting lower losses on subsequent pools. Most issuers' 2019 vintages were initially tracking higher than their 2016 vintages. But losses have since subsided, and the 2019 vintage is now generally tracking better than the 2017 and 2018 vintages. The 2020 vintage, although still early, is also tracking better than the prior vintages. We believe the most recent vintages' improved performances are likely attributable to the following:

  • The federal aid provided to borrowers via the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, which included enhanced unemployment benefits and stimulus checks;
  • Higher extension and cumulative recovery rates; and
  • The tighter credit underwriting characteristics issuers implemented starting in second-quarter 2020.

We believe losses could gradually rise as issuers revert to collateral underwriting more in line with pre-COVID-19 originations and once the various forms of aid are no longer being distributed.

Recoveries Remain Strong Due To High Used Vehicle Values

Since second-quarter 2020, new vehicle inventory has dropped substantially to a low of 2.4 million vehicles from a high of 3.6 million vehicles, according to Manheim/Cox Automotive. The decline reflects production plants shutting down during the pandemic and a global semiconductor chip shortage. This has caused new vehicle inventory to remain well below last year's levels--propelling used vehicle values to all-time highs. As of April 2021, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index increased approximately 54% year over year.

Cumulative recovery rates remain strong and have been trending in the 40%-45% range for the 2015-2017 vintages. The 2018 and 2019 vintages are trending at approximately 43% and 40% at months 27 and 15, respectively--higher than the 2016 and 2017 vintages (see chart 2). The 2019 vintages were initially performing in line with the 2017 vintages, but their performance surpassed the 2017 loss curves over the past 12 months. In addition, the first-quarter 2020 vintage experienced a sharp decline in month 4, likely due to the temporary shutdown of auction markets. However, its recoveries have continued to improve since then and are tracking higher than the prior vintages.

On a non-vintage, portfolio-based measure, subprime recoveries improved to approximately 46% as of February 2021 from 41% a year earlier (see "U.S. Auto Loan ABS Tracker: February 2021 Performance," published April 13, 2021). We believe recoveries could exceed 2020 levels this year if the lack of new vehicle supply continues to drive higher used vehicle values.

Chart 2

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Extensions Reached Double Digits In 2020

The use of extensions as a loss mitigation tool is prevalent in subprime auto loan transactions. When the national unemployment rate rose to over 14% at the onset of the pandemic, most issuers used extensions (in accordance with their hardship policies) as their primary tool to help affected borrowers. As a result, extension levels peaked at approximately 12.6% in April 2020 inclusive of public Reg AB II issuers and 144a issuers (see chart 3). Reg AB II issuers (AmeriCredit, Santander Consumer, and World Omni Select) experienced higher extension rates, which peaked at 15.8% in April 2020, compared with 144A issuers (ACA, Avid, CPS, DT, Exeter, First Investors, Flagship, Prestige, UACC, and Westlake), which peaked at approximately 9.8%. The high level of extensions for the public issuers was primarily due to Santander DRIVE's high extension levels (see below).

Chart 3

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While several issuers' extension levels have returned to pre-COVID-19 levels, some remain elevated. Most notably is Santander Consumer's (SC) DRIVE platform, which continues to have the highest year-over-year increase in extensions (see the Santander Consumer USA Inc. issuer snapshot section below for more detail). DRIVE's extension levels were 3.12% in February 2021, compared with 1.14% a year earlier. However, the February 2021 level was down dramatically from the April 2020 peak of approximately 21%. We believe the year-over-year increase in February 2021 primarily reflects the amendment made to SC's extension policy in March 2020, which increased the permitted maximum number of monthly extensions to 12 from eight. Other issuers that were experiencing higher year-over-year extension levels as of February 2021 include Westlake, Avid, Exeter, and Flagship (see "Loan Deferrals In U.S. Auto Loan ABS Reach Their Lowest Levels Since COVID-19 Began; Deeper Dive Into Charge-Offs On Extended Loans," published April 27, 2021).

Unsurprisingly, subprime delinquencies and annualized net losses both declined following increased use of extensions early during the pandemic and have remained below historical levels due to federal aid (see chart 4). More recently 60-plus day delinquencies fell to 3.6% in February 2021 from 4.9% a year earlier, while annualized net losses dropped approximately 50% to 4.7% from 8.4%. As extension rates continue to normalize and once consumers have spent their stimulus checks and enhanced unemployment pay runs out, delinquencies and losses could increase.

Chart 4

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Although higher extension levels have helped to mitigate losses in the short term, we believe defaults could increase toward the end of the loan because the interest that accrues during the extension period results in an outstanding balance due after the requisite number of payments are made. To account for this risk, we may run more backloaded loss curves in our cash flow analyses. We also verify that the longest-dated class has a legal final maturity date that is at least as long as tenor of the longest dated receivable in the pool plus the maximum number of allowable extensions, based on the issuer's extension policy, and the number of months of prefunding, where applicable.

Loan Growth Declined While Collateral Characteristics Improved

There has been a sharp decline in subprime auto loan originations since second-quarter 2020 as issuers tightened their credit underwriting standards in anticipation of higher losses due to the pandemic. Subprime origination volume declined approximately 10% in 2020 as a result.

Historically, we have observed a correlation between loan growth and loss levels. We compared CNLs for the various vintages with subprime industry origination volume for the respective year through months 12, 24, and 36, where applicable (see chart 5). CNLs peaked at month 36 for the 2015 vintage, which corresponded with a high level of origination growth that year. In 2016 and 2017, origination volume declined slightly as lenders tightened their credit standards. As a result, CNLs through month 36 started to stabilize for those vintages and some issuers reported lower losses. However, origination growth picked up again in 2018 and 2019. And although we had expected higher losses to follow and some issuers did report weaker performance early on for their 2019 vintages relative to earlier vintages, performance was better than expected. The 2019 vintage benefited from COVID-19-related assistance, and we are not seeing higher losses on this vintage, despite the higher origination volume.

Given the reduced origination volume in 2020 and the tighter underwriting standards immediately following the start of the pandemic, many of these transactions are likely to perform well if not better than prior vintages. However, we will need to closely watch origination volumes and underwriting standards in 2021 to assess if the growth is coming at the expense of credit quality, a trend we observed in 2015.

Chart 5

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Since the onset of the pandemic, most subprime issuers have been originating loans with better credit characteristics. The weighted average loan-to-value (LTV) ratio for subprime auto loans was 114.8% as of first-quarter 2020, and the weighted average FICO score was 575 (see table 1). However, the overall weighted average LTV ratio for 2020 was 111.9% and the weighted average FICO score was 588, indicating an improvement in the collateral characteristics for the second through fourth quarters. As of first-quarter 2021, the weighted average LTV ratio was approximately 110.8% and the weighted average FICO score was 592--the highest we have seen in over a decade.

Table 1

Subprime Collateral Trends(i)
Subprime WA APR (%) Used vehicle (%) % of loans with orig term > 60 months (%) % of loans with orig term 73-75 months (%)(ii) % of loans with orig term 76-84 months and above (%)(ii) WA orig maturity WA FICO score WA LTV ratio (%)
2010 17.76 76.24 73.57 - - 67.97 574 111.94
2011 16.31 68.74 77.51 - - 67.43 575 111.81
2012 17.01 72.11 76.90 - - 67.10 573 113.15
2013 16.63 70.09 81.30 - - 68.05 577 114.28
2014 16.67 72.63 79.17 - - 67.30 577 114.78
2015 17.31 71.18 83.16 - - 68.58 572 113.11
2016 16.85 68.25 83.27 - - 68.52 575 112.55
2017 17.79 69.05 84.61 - - 68.94 578 110.57
2018 17.97 66.53 83.03 - - 68.65 587 110.28
2019(ii) 17.84 70.55 82.63 8.14 - 68.69 584 112.45
2020 17.21 72.41 83.04 9.48 0.41 68.98 588 111.86
Q1 2020 18.36 75.05 80.85 5.17 0.00 68.85 575 114.83
Q1 2021 16.85 75.83 82.76 7.18 1.75 69.00 592 110.76
(i)The data from 2016 onward include the transactions rated by S&P Global Ratings as well as most of the transactions it did not rate. (ii)Effective August 2019, we started reporting loans with terms of 73-75 months and 76-84 months. WA--Weighted average. APR--Annual percentage rate. Orig--Original. LTV--Loan to value. N/A--Not applicable. Source: S&P Global Ratings.
Longer-term loans

Longer-term loans remain a popular method to mitigate affordability issues associated with consumer demand for larger, more expensive vehicles. Loans with an original term of 73-75 months have been prevalent in AmeriCredit and Santander's SDART and DRIVE transactions for several years and typically ranged from 11% to 14% of their pools. These loans also comprise approximately 50%-54% of World Omni's WOSAT platform, which issued its first securitization in 2018. In addition, loans with an original term of 78-months comprised approximately 10%-15% of the WOSAT 2019-A and 2020-A pools (this portion of the series 2020-A pool has a weighted average FICO score of 759, compared with 641 for the entire pool). Flagship also includes a small percentage of loans with an original term of 73-78 months in its pools, but they represented less than 1% of the pools.

AmeriCredit began including loans with an original term of 76-84 months in 2020. The series 2020-2 and 2021-1 pools contained approximately 4% and 9% of these loans, respectively. AmeriCredit offsets the higher risk associated with these loans through stronger credit characteristics, including a higher weighted average FICO score, a lower weighted average LTV ratio, and a higher percentage of new vehicles than for the overall pool.

Amortization for more recent 2019-2020 vintages has slowed, partly due to the inclusion of more longer-term loans. The pool factor at month 12 is approximately 71% for the first-quarter 2020 vintage, compared with 69% and 67% for the 2019 and 2018 vintages, respectively. Holding the pool factor constant, the first-quarter 2020 and the 2019 vintages both have CNLs of approximately 3% and approximately 4%, respectively, at a 71% pool factor (see chart 6).

Chart 6

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Given that the slower amortization of these longer-term loans could result in higher losses, we often run a more backloaded loss curve in our cash flows to account for this risk. We also analyze static pool data, segmented by various loan terms, and determine the base-case loss level for that particular loan term.

Base-Case Losses Increased Due To The Pandemic

Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, we have generally implemented higher base-case CNL assumptions for new issuances and outstanding transactions and adjusted certain cash flow assumptions in our analysis of U.S. auto loan ABS transactions (see "The Potential Effects Of COVID-19 On U.S. Auto Loan ABS," published March 26, 2020). These adjustments reflected our view of the negative impact the pandemic-induced economic dislocation could have on wages, unemployment, and, ultimately, borrowers' ability to continue making payments on their auto loans. For subprime auto loans, we initially applied an approximately 15% uplift to our base-case CNL assumptions. This translated into higher credit enhancement levels at the 'BBB' and lower ratings categories, which are more susceptible to default in a recessionary environment where unemployment levels are elevated.

Our analysis of over 12 months of performance data since the pandemic began show that most outstanding U.S. auto loan ABS securitizations are performing better than expected (see "U.S. Auto Loan ABS Is Navigating Through COVID-19 With Better-Than-Expected Performance," published Feb. 10, 2021). In addition, our macroeconomic forecast for 2021 has improved since last year: we lowered our 2021 unemployment forecast from 7.2% in June 2020 to 6.4% in December 2020 and then 5.5% in March 2021.

Accordingly, we lowered our COVID-19 loss adjustment in February 2021 for both new and outstanding transactions during their surveillance reviews. Our analysis incorporates our view that performance uncertainty remains due to the pandemic, unemployment levels are likely to remain higher than pre-pandemic levels until at least 2023, and federal aid will run out. We will continue to monitor early performance indicators and reflect them in our analyses on a forward-looking basis.

Credit Enhancement Has Kept Pace With Higher Loss Expectations

Our base-case expected cumulative net losses (ECNLs) have increased due to the COVID-19 adjustment we have been applying since March 2020 (see chart 7). Our base-case ECNL at the time of issuance increased approximately 7% to a weighted average of 20.9% in 2020 from 19.5% in 2019. At the same time, hard initial credit enhancement at closing rose to 18.3% from 17.5% for 'BBB' rated bonds, to 10.7% from 9.9% for 'BB' rated bonds, and to 7.0% from 4.8% for 'B' rated bonds. Annual excess spread at closing also increased to 13.9% from 13.2% during that time.

During first-quarter 2021, and especially after we revised and lowered our COVID-19 adjustment, our weighted average base-case loss level declined slightly. This, coupled with more excess spread due to lower all-in yields in the ABS market, led to lower hard credit enhancement levels at the 'BBB' and lower rating categories. While the 'BBB' and 'BB' hard credit enhancement levels have fallen below 2016 levels, the 'B' hard credit enhancement remains more in line with 2019 levels.

Chart 7

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Ratings Remain Stable

Despite our higher loss expectations for subprime auto loan ABS over the past year, upgrades continued to surpass downgrades by a wide margin. In May 2020, we placed our ratings on 33 classes from 26 subprime auto transactions and 10 issuers on CreditWatch with negative implications. We have since affirmed or raised the ratings on all but five classes.

In 2020 through April 2021, we upgraded 346 classes and downgraded eight classes (see table 2). The eight downgrades were on three CPS transactions (see the CPS Auto Receivables Trust issuer snapshot section below for more information). The upgrades generally reflected the transactions' better-than-expected loss levels and the deleveraging that occurred due to their sequential pay structures, which builds credit enhancement for the senior classes. Even in cases where the CNLs were slightly higher than our base-case assumptions, many subordinated classes became eligible for upgrades because their credit enhancement remained at targeted levels and excess spread remained strong--especially after the associated pool had weathered its peak loss period.

Table 2

Subprime Auto Loan Rating Actions (Long-Term Ratings)
Year Upgrades (no.) Downgrades (no.)
2015 169 0
2016 244 0
2017 222 0
2018 263 2
2019 344 5
2020 257 8
2021(i) 89 0
Total 1,588 15
(i)As of April 30.

Issuer Static Pool Performance Compared With The ALSI

Methodology

We generally define subprime transactions as those for which we have base-case ECNLs of 7.5% or higher. In this section, we compare the issuers' performance to that of the overall subprime ALSI. We exclude the transactions from CarNow Auto Receivables Trust, DriveTime Automotive Group Inc. (DT), and Credit Acceptance Corp. (CAC) from the index due to their different business models. CarNow and DT operate used vehicle dealerships and are in the business of selling and financing vehicles, while the other companies in the subprime ALSI only finance the vehicles. CAC differs from the other subprime finance companies we rate in that it actually makes dealer advances, which are secured by the underlying retail installment sales contracts (auto loans), and the amount it advances on the auto loans is substantially lower than those of the other finance companies in the index. Despite DT's exclusion from our subprime ALSI, we have included its performance below.

In the following section, we provide performance summaries for the 2017-2020 subprime securitizations that are rated by S&P Global Ratings. Some issuers have more months of performance data than the overall subprime ASLI because the index displays performance up to the last month for which all transactions for a particular issuer have performance data. Since some small issuers securitized early in the associated year and issued only once in the year, they have more months of performance data than what is aggregated in the index for the related year.

2017 vintage performance

Issuer-specific CNLs for the 2017 vintage through month 40 range from a low of 6.8% for AmeriCredit to a high of 26.5% for DT (see chart 8). The weighted average CNL for the 2017 transactions in the subprime ALSI is 13.0% through month 40, a slight decrease from the approximately 13.5% for the 2016 vintages.

Our key observations for the 2017 vintage include the following:

  • Six issuers reported losses below the subprime ALSI weighted average through month 40: AmeriCredit, Flagship, First Investors, SDART, Prestige, and Westlake.
  • Eight issuers reported higher than index-average losses: JD Byrider, DT, American Credit Acceptance LLC (ACA), United Auto Credit Corp. (UACC), Exeter, Santander's DRIVE platform, CPS, and GLS.
  • JD Byrider (also known as CarNow) paid off at month 34 after experiencing CNLs of 30.1%--the highest reported loss in the index. This was the last CarNow transaction rated by S&P Global Ratings.
  • UACC paid off the fastest, at month 30, after experiencing CNLs of 19.4%. The accelerated paydown reflects the short weighted average original maturity on the loans (see the United Auto Credit Securitization Trust issuer snapshot section below for more detail).
  • For all issuers, the 2017 vintage is experiencing (or has experienced) CNLs that are in line with or better than their respective 2016 vintages.

Chart 8

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2018 vintage performance

Issuer-specific CNLs on the 2018 vintage through month 27 range from a low of 4.5% for WOSAT to a high of 18.5% for UACC (see chart 9). The weighted average CNL for the 2018 vintage in the subprime ALSI is 9.4% through month 27, a significant decrease from 10.6% for the 2017 vintage.

Our key observations for the 2018 vintage include the following:

  • Ten issuers reported losses below the subprime ALSI weighted average through month 27: WOSAT, AmeriCredit, First Investors, Flagship, SDART, Tidewater, CPS, Avid, Prestige, and Westlake.
  • Five issuers reported higher than index-average losses: UACC, ACA, DT, Exeter, and DRIVE.
  • CPS securitizations are performing under the subprime ALSI loss curve, but its loss curves are typically more backloaded, and we expect losses to eventually trend higher than the subprime ALSI loss curve.
  • Two new subprime securitization platforms came to market in 2018: WOSAT 2018-1, the first issuance from World Omni's subprime platform, and Avid 2018-1, an inaugural deal from Avid Auto Acceptance, a new subprime issuer (see the Avid Acceptance LLC issuer snapshot section below for more detail).
  • The 2018 vintage for all issuers, except for Exeter, are performing in line with or better than their respective 2017 vintages.

Chart 9

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2019 vintage performance

Issuer-specific CNLs on the 2019 vintage through month 16 range from a low of 2.6% for WOSAT to a high of 12.4% for UACC (see chart 10). The weighted average CNL for the 2019 vintage in the subprime ALSI is 5.5% through month 16, a decrease from 6.2% for the 2018 vintage.

Our key observations for the 2019 vintage include the following:

  • Ten issuers reported losses below the subprime ALSI weighted average through month 16: WOSAT, AmeriCredit, First Investors, Flagship, CPS, SDART, Prestige, Westlake, Avid, and GLS.
  • Five issuers reported higher than index-average losses: UACC, ACA, DT, Exeter, and DRIVE.
  • The 2019 transactions were initially performing worse than most of the issuers' respective 2018 vintage. However, a sharp downturn in losses over the past year resulted in improved performance for the 2019 vintage, and most are now trending better than the 2018 vintage (see the cumulative gross loss charts in the Subprime Issuer Snapshot section below show for more detail). We believe the enhanced unemployment benefits and federal stimulus provided to subprime borrowers has a positive effect on these vintages' loss performance. However, losses could increase once borrowers stop receiving these benefits.
  • The higher extension levels of the past 12 months could be delaying potential losses, and we believe the 2019 vintage face more back-end loss risk as a result.

Chart 10

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2020 Quarter One vintage performance

Although still early, the first-quarter 2020 vintage appears to be performing better than all prior vintages. Like the 2019 vintage, the first-quarter 2020 vintage benefitted from the economic stimulus and the higher extension levels (which both may be delaying future losses), as well as from higher recovery rates.

Issuer-specific CNLs for the first-quarter 2020 vintage through month 12 range from a low of 1.3% for AmeriCredit to a high of 6.3% for ACA (see chart 11). The weighted average CNL for the first-quarter 2020 vintage in the subprime ALSI is 3.1% through month 12, a decline from 4.2% for the 2019 vintage. While not included in chart 11 below because they have less than 12 months of performance data, the second- and third-quarter 2020 vintages appear to be trending in line with or better than the first-quarter 2020 vintage. We expect these vintages to perform better since they have mostly benefitted from a stronger collateral pool due to tightened credit underwriting.

One new subprime securitization platform came to market in 2020: CRVNA 2020-N1, Carvana's first subprime transaction, which we did not rate. In 2019, Carvana issued four transactions that were a blend of prime and nonprime collateral (see the Carvana Auto Receivables Trust issuer snapshot section below for more detail). In February 2021, Carvana issued its second subprime securitization, which was rated by S&P Global Ratings.

Chart 11

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SUBPRIME ISSUER SNAPSHOTS

Below are summary profiles for each subprime auto loan ABS issuers for which S&P Global Ratings has outstanding ratings. These issuer-specific profiles include our initial and most recently revised ECNLs for each outstanding transaction; graphs depicting CGLs, recovery rates, and CNLs by pool factors (performance is generally through Feb. 28, 2021); and a collateral summary table. For many of these transactions, our most recent ECNLs reflect our March 2020 COVID-19 loss adjustment (COVID-19 adjustment). For these transactions, our expected loss levels are likely overstated because we lowered our COVID-19 adjustment in February 2021 due to a stronger and quicker recovery than we had initially expected.

Each transaction's collateral pool stratifications generally reflect its final pool structure, though some may have changed slightly from the presale. Most of these changes occurred in transactions that included prefunding, and we updated the pool information to account for the final pool after the prefunding period ended.

Subprime issuers have a wide array of ECNLs, ranging from approximately 7% to over 30% (see chart 12). Of the 17 subprime issuers,

  • Three have portfolios of $10 billion or more: AmeriCredit (inclusive of GMF), Santander, and World Omni Select (includes World Omni's entire portfolio);
  • Three have portfolios of $5 billion to $9.9 billion: Westlake, Credit Acceptance, and Exeter;
  • Seven have portfolios of approximately $1 billion to $4.99 billion: DriveTime, ACA, Flagship, Global Lending Solutions (GLS), Carvana nonprime NP, CPS, and Prestige; and
  • Four have portfolios of less than $1 billion: First Investors, UACC, Tidewater, and Avid.

Some issuers experienced growth last year, despite the COVID-19 pandemic. These included six issuers whose portfolios grew by 10% or more: Carvana nonprime, AmeriCredit (inclusive of GMF), ACA, Westlake, Exeter, and GLS. The issuers that experienced a decline include DriveTime, CPS, First Investors, Flagship, Prestige, and UACC. We expect growth to ramp up this year for most subprime issuers.

Chart 12

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American Credit Acceptance Receivables Trust

Credit analysts:

Peter W Chang, (1) 212-438-1505; peter.chang@spglobal.com

Sanjay Narine, (1) 416-507-2548; sanjay.narine@spglobal.com

Issuer profile

American Credit Acceptance LLC (ACA) was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Spartanburg, S.C. ACA is privately owned by trusts controlled by George Johnson (79.4%), other investors (12.4%), and ACA management (8.2%). The company provides financing to CarMax, franchise, strategic partners, and a small percentage to independent automobile dealerships. It does this via two channels for auto loans: tier 1 (CarMax), which comprises approximately 65% of originations, and tier 2 (franchise, strategic partners, and core), which comprises approximately 35%.

Key facts and observations
  • ACA's retail auto loan portfolio increased 25% year over year to approximately $3.97 billion as of Dec. 30, 2020. The company has been consistently profitable since 2009.
  • ACA has been including more longer-term loans in its collateral mix. Loans with an original term of 61-72 months represented 95.4% of the series 2021-2 pool, compared with 87.1% in series 2017-4. LTV ratios have started to decline for the more recent transactions, with series 2021-2 having the lowest LTV among all outstanding transactions, at 116.5%, compared with 126.2% for series 2017-4. The seasoning on the pools fluctuates, depending on whether they include clean-up collateral from other pools.
  • The company's outstanding 2017 through 2021 transactions are performing in line with or better than our initial expectations. After applying our March 2020 COVID-19 adjustment, we generally expect these transactions to experience losses in the 26.50%-31.00% range.
  • The series 2017-4 pool has the highest percentage of called collateral and, as a result, had higher seasoning of 5.3 months.
  • In July 2020, we upgraded 17 classes and affirmed seven ratings across six transactions (see "Seventeen Ratings Raised and Seven Affirmed On Six American Credit Acceptance Receivables Trust Deals," published July 8 2020. In October, we affirmed 10 ratings across two transactions and removed four of the ratings from CreditWatch negative (see "Ten American Credit Acceptance Auto Receivables Trust Ratings Affirmed, Four Removed From CreditWatch Negative," published Oct. 26, 2020. In November, we upgraded 15 classes and affirmed seven ratings across six transactions (see "Fifteen American Credit Acceptance Receivables Trust Ratings Raised, Seven Affirmed From Six Deals," published Nov. 6, 2020).
Performance

Table 3

American Credit Acceptance Receivables Trust Collateral Performance
Series Current month Pool factor (%) Extension (%) Current CNL (%) Initial expected lifetime CNL (%) Revised expected lifetime CNL (%)
2017-4 39 20.76 2.77 21.21 28.25-29.25 26.50-27.50(i)
2018-1 36 25.23 2.98 20.90 28.25-29.25 26.50-27.50(ii)
2018-2 33 32.44 2.63 19.84 28.00-29.00 27.50-28.50(ii)
2018-3 30 33.49 3.56 18.83 27.00-28.00 27.00-28.00(ii)
2018-4 27 38.43 3.41 17.73 27.00-28.00 27.50-28.50(i)
2019-1 24 47.49 3.58 15.61 28.00-29.00 30.50-31.50(i)
2019-2 22 50.07 3.17 14.07 27.00-28.00 29.50-30.50(i)
2019-3 19 58.20 3.22 12.15 27.75-28.75 28.50-29.50(ii)
2019-4 16 63.99 3.31 9.70 27.25-28.25 28.00-29.00(iii)
2020-1 13 72.04 2.88 6.78 27.25-28.25 28.50-29.50(iii)
2020-2 10 78.86 2.85 5.97 32.00-33.00 N/A
2020-3 7 85.87 2.45 3.29 31.50-32.50 N/A
2020-4 4 93.10 1.68 0.95 31.50-32.50 N/A
2021-1 1 97.70 0.40 0.01 30.50-31.50 N/A
2021-2(iv) - - - - 27.75-28.75 N/A
(i)Revised in July 2020.(ii)Revised in November 2020. (iii)Revised in October 2020. (iv)Closed in April 2021. CNL--Cumulative net losses. N/A--Not applicable.

Chart 13

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Chart 14

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Chart 15

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Table 4

American Credit Acceptance Receivables Trust Collateral Comparison(i)
Series
2017-4 2018-1 2018-2 2018-3 2018-4 2019-1 2019-2 2019-3
Weighted avg. original term (mos.) 68.94 69.32 69.51 69.57 69.44 69.74 69.98 70.23
Weighted avg. remaining term (mos.) 63.65 65.03 68.70 65.43 65.22 69.13 65.35 68.43
Weighted avg. seasoning (mos.) 5.29 4.29 0.81 4.14 4.22 0.61 4.63 1.80
Loans with original terms of 61-72 mos. (%) 87.08 88.77 89.50 89.50 89.40 90.24 91.42 92.32
Loans with original terms of 73-plus mos. (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Weighted avg. LTV (%) 126.22 124.96 126.79 129.17 128.16 122.16 124.37 123.99
Weighted avg. FICO score 547.0 544.0 544.0 545.0 544.0 543.0 539.0 542.0
Percentage of loans with no FICO score (%) 10.52 10.29 9.77 9.93 10.33 10.77 11.70 10.60
Weighted avg. APR (%) 23.24 23.41 23.72 23.69 23.62 23.70 23.69 23.59
New vehicles (%) 4.76 3.62 3.93 4.26 3.38 2.14 3.75 2.62
Used vehicles (%) 95.24 96.38 96.07 95.74 96.62 97.86 96.25 97.38
Series
2019-4 2020-1 2020-2 2020-3 2020-4 2021-1 2021-2
Weighted avg. original term (mos.) 70.2 70.3 69.9 70.2 70.5 70.8 71.0
Weighted avg. remaining term (mos.) 66.4 65.5 69.6 66.5 66.4 66.2 65.0
Weighted avg. seasoning (mos.) 3.7 4.8 0.4 3.8 4.1 4.6 6.0
Loans with original terms of 61-72 mos. (%) 92.2 93.0 91.2 92.3 93.7 94.4 95.4
Loans with original terms of 73-plus mos. (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Weighted avg. LTV (%) 126.2 124.7 122.4 119.3 117.0 117.7 116.5
Weighted avg. FICO score 539.0 538.0 527.0 539.0 541.0 543.0 538.0
Percentage of loans with no FICO score (%) 10.2 10.3 12.9 12.6 13.2 14.1 13.9
Weighted avg. APR (%) 23.7 23.6 24.3 24.5 24.6 24.6 24.5
New vehicles (%) 2.6 2.5 1.8 1.7 2.2 3.1 2.9
Used vehicles (%) 97.4 97.5 98.2 98.3 97.8 96.9 97.2
(i)For series 2017-through 2018-4, the collateral reflects final pool post prefunding. For the subsequent pools, it reflects collateral at closing. N/A--Not applicable.

AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust

Credit analysts:

Linda Yeh, (1) 212-438-2520; linda.yeh@spglobal.com

Amanda Augustine, (1) 212-438-1607; amanda.augustine@spglobal.com

Issuer profile

AmeriCredit Financial Services Inc., doing business as GM Financial, is a subsidiary of General Motors Financial Co. Inc. (GMF Co., formerly known as AmeriCredit Corp.; BBB/Negative/--). The company was founded in 1992 and acquired by General Motors Co. (GM) in 2010. It is headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas.

In North America, GM Financial offers full-spectrum lending and leasing through GM-franchised dealers under the GM Financial brand. It also offers a subprime lending product through non-GM franchised dealers and select independent dealers under the AmeriCredit brand. The company continues to increase its share of originations for GM vehicles at GM-affiliated dealers, and it has been the exclusive subvented loan provider for GM vehicles in the U.S. since January 2016. In August 2020, we removed our 'BBB' corporate credit rating on GM and its subsidiary GM Financial (which we deem a core subsidiary) from CreditWatch negative and affirmed the rating with a negative outlook (see "General Motors Co. 'BBB' Rating Affirmed And Removed From CreditWatch; Outlook Negative," published Aug. 11, 2020).

Key facts and observations
  • GM Financial's North American consumer finance receivable portfolio increased 27% year over year to approximately $46.7 billion (including prime auto loans) as of Dec. 30, 2020, and its earned net income was $2.01 billion in 2020.
  • Beginning with the series 2020-2 issuance, AmeriCredit has been including loans with an original term of 76-84 months. Although the company began originating collateral with these terms in late 2015, it didn't start to generate meaningful volume until 2017. Loans with an original term of 76-84 months represented approximately 9.0% of the series 2021-1 pool, compared with approximately 3.8% for series 2020-2. These longer-term loans generally have higher seasoning, lower LTV ratios, and slightly higher FICO scores compared with the total pool.
  • The pools' weighted average proprietary and FICO scores have generally improved: the proprietary score increased to 252 for series 2021-1 from 245 for series 2016-4, and the FICO score rose to 586 for series 2021-1 from 576 for series 2016-4. In addition, the weighted average LTV ratios decreased slightly to 106% for series 2021-1 from 108% for series 2016-4.
  • The company's outstanding series 2016 through series 2019 transactions that we rate are all performing better than our initial expectations. After applying our March 2020 COVID-19 adjustment, we expect the series 2016-4 transaction to experience CNLs of up to 9.10%, series 2017 to experience CNLs in the 8.00%-9.00% range, and series 2018 and 2019 to experience CNLs in the 7.75%-8.75% range.
  • In January 2021, we upgraded six classes and affirmed 16 ratings across seven transactions (see "Six Ratings Raised; 16 Affirmed On Seven AmeriCredit Automobile Transactions," published Jan. 26, 2021).
Performance

Table 5

AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust Collateral Performance
Series Current month Pool factor (%) Extension (%) Current CNL (%) Initial expected lifetime CNL (%) Revised expected lifetime CNL (%)
2016-4 53 12.06 1.58 8.64 10.00-10.50 Up to 9.10(i)
2017-1 49 14.85 1.72 7.94 10.00-10.50 8.50-9.00(i)
2017-4 40 23.97 2.15 6.27 9.75-10.25 8.00-8.50(i)
2018-1 34 31.41 2.59 5.13 9.75-10.25 7.75-8.25(i)
2018-3(ii) 28 41.92 2.75 4.63 N/A N/A
2019-1 24 45.92 2.79 3.91 9.75-10.25 8.00-8.50(i)
2019-2(ii) 21 52.37 2.85 3.59 N/A N/A
2019-3 18 57.92 2.80 2.50 9.75-10.25 8.25-8.75(i)
2020-1(ii) 12 68.18 2.82 1.32 N/A N/A
2020-2 8 77.10 1.98 0.63 12.00-12.50 N/A
2020-3(ii) 4 89.77 1.87 0.24 N/A N/A
2021-1(iii) 1 94.39 1.02 0.01 10.75-11.25 N/A
(i)Revised January 2021. (ii)Not rated by S&P Global Ratings. (iii)Closed in March 2021. CNL--Cumulative net loss. N/A--Not applicable.

Chart 16

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Chart 17

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Chart 18

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Table 6

AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust Collateral Comparison
Series
2016-4 2017-1 2017-2(i) 2017-3(i) 2017-4 2018-1 2018-2(i) 2018-3(i)
Weighted avg. original term (mos.) 71.04 71.09 71.08 71.00 71.19 71.07 71.00 71.00
Weighted avg. remaining term (mos.) 65.89 65.52 66.75 67.00 67.14 67.39 69.00 70.00
Weighted avg. seasoning (mos.) 5.15 5.57 4.33 4.00 4.05 3.68 2.00 1.00
Loans with original terms of 61-72 mos. (%) 88.95 87.89 87.55 88.53 87.02 85.69 86.53 81.26
Loans with original terms of 73-75 mos. (%) 3.56 4.84 5.06 4.52 6.13 6.52 6.38 11.30
Loans with original terms of 76-84 mos. (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Weighted avg. LTV (%) 108.31 108.00 107.07 106.22 106.89 106.87 106.00 107.00
Weighted avg. FICO score 576.1 575.0 575.0 577.0 579.0 581.0 582.0 582.0
AmeriCredit's weighted avg. proprietary internal credit score 245.28 246.00 245.00 245.00 247.00 250.00 249.00 248.00
With proprietary score > 245 (%) 47.75 47.78 47.09 47.24 50.30 54.69 53.12 51.10
With proprietary score < 215 (%) 9.39 8.16 8.59 8.03 6.33 4.87 5.34 6.93
Weighted avg. APR (%) 12.26 12.71 12.85 12.65 12.98 13.11 12.54 13.09
New vehicles (%) 57.95 55.04 55.93 60.65 56.87 51.83 54.16 56.01
Used vehicles (%) 42.05 44.96 44.07 39.35 43.13 48.17 45.84 43.99
Series
2019-1 2019-2(i) 2019-3 2020-1(i) 2020-2 2020-3(i) 2021-1
Weighted avg. original term (mos.) 71.45 71.00 70.98 71.00 72.00 72.00 73.00
Weighted avg. remaining term (mos.) 66.94 68.00 66.65 64.00 64.00 66.00 63.00
Weighted avg. seasoning (mos.) 4.51 3.00 4.33 7.00 8.00 6.00 10.00
Loans with original terms of 61-72 mos. (%) 76.62 78.71 78.72 78.61 77.44 75.19 70.52
Loans with original terms of 73-75 mos. (%) 16.43 14.12 14.11 14.52 13.00 11.12 14.27
Loans with original terms of 76-84 mos. (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A 3.82 3.56 8.95
Weighted avg. LTV (%) 106.76 108.00 108.98 109.00 108.49 106.00 105.65
Weighted avg. FICO score 579.5 577.0 581.0 580.0 581.0 585.0 586.0
AmeriCredit's weighted avg. proprietary internal credit score 247.00 246.00 248.00 247.00 250.00 251.00 252.00
With proprietary score > 245 (%) 49.87 46.95 50.72 48.04 54.13 55.65 57.75
With proprietary score < 215 (%) 8.00 8.40 6.05 7.29 6.45 5.14 4.64
Weighted avg. APR (%) 13.20 12.99 12.90 12.79 11.88 12.10 12.18
New vehicles (%) 59.86 53.69 51.54 51.74 55.27 51.00 50.01
Used vehicles (%) 43.14 46.31 48.46 48.26 44.73 59.00 49.99
(i)Not rated by S&P Global Ratings. LTV--Loan-to-value.

Avid Acceptance LLC

Credit analysts:

Timothy J Moran, CFA, FRM, (212) 438-2440; timothy.moran@spglobal.com

Zarif Ahmed, New York, (1) 212-438-6690; zarif.ahmed@spglobal.com

Issuer profile

Avid Acceptance LLC (Avid) is a subprime auto finance company founded in 2009 by Scott Scharman, Curtis Rudd, and Ben Larisch. The company has approximately 106 full-time employees and operations in 26 states, and it conducts underwriting and servicing from its Salt Lake City headquarters.

Avid is one of three finance companies residing under the broader Quoros Group umbrella (the other two companies are Tetra Financial Group and a commercial real estate finance business). Mr. Scharman is the primary owner of the Quoros Group businesses. Avid primarily focuses on extending credit to borrowers who have filed for Chapter 7 or 13 bankruptcy. Historically, this collateral accounts for more than 88% of the company's business.

Key facts and observations
  • Avid's managed portfolio increased 2.7% year over year to approximately $209.98 million as of March 2021.
  • Compared with the series 2018-1 transaction, the series 2019-1 pool has less seasoning, a higher LTV, a lower weighted average FICO score, and a higher percentage of loans with no FICO score.
  • As of May 1, 2021, Avid has one outstanding transaction, series 2019-1, which is performing better than our initial expectations. The series 2018-1 transaction paid off in April 2021 with a pool factor of approximately 15% and CNLs of 9.52%. After applying our March 2020 COVID-19 adjustment, we expect the series 2019-1 transaction to experience CNLs in the 15.50%-16.50% range. The ratings on the notes are capped at 'A (sf)'.
  • Series 2019-1 has a CNL trigger that is tested monthly and, if breached, could cause the transaction to direct all excess cash toward paying down the notes. The trigger is curable if CNL remains below the monthly CNL trigger for 10 consecutive months. If the trigger is breached and then cured, any credit enhancement that is built prior to the trigger being cured will remain in the transaction and would not be released. The trigger has not been breached as of March 2021.
  • In December 2020, we upgraded three classes and affirmed four ratings across two transactions (see "Three Rating Raised And Four Ratings Affirmed On Two Avid Automobile Receivables Trust Transactions," published Dec. 16, 2020).
Performance

Table 7

Avid Acceptance LLC Collateral Performance
Series Current month Pool factor (%) Extension (%) Current CNL (%) Initial expected lifetime CNL (%) Revised expected lifetime CNL (%)
2019-1 17 63.36 3.96 5.25 13.75-14.75 15.50-16.50(i)
(i)As of December 2020. CNL--Cumulative net loss.

Chart 19

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Chart 20

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Chart 21

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Table 8

Avid Acceptance LLC Collateral Comparison
Series
2018-1 2019-1
Weighted avg. original term (mos.) 69.9 70.3
Weighted avg. remaining term (mos.) 57.1 64.6
Weighted avg. seasoning (mos.) 12.8 5.8
Loans with original terms of 61-72 mos. (%) 89.5 92.1
Loans with original terms of 73-plus mos. (%) 0.0 0.0
Weighted avg. LTV (%) 125.9 128.7
Weighted avg. FICO score 546.0 524.9
Percentage of loans with no FICO score (%) 3.9 8.4
Weighted avg. APR (%) 18.1 18.2
New vehicles (%) 7.0 4.4
Used vehicles (%) 93.0 95.6
LTV--Loan-to-value.

Carvana Auto Receivables Trust

Credit analysts:

Jenna Cilento, New York, (1) 212-438-1533; jenna.cilento@spglobal.com

Timothy J Moran, CFA, FRM, (1) 212-438-2440; timothy.moran@spglobal.com

Issuer profile

Carvana Co. (Carvana; CCC+/Stable/--) was initially formed in 2012 as a subsidiary of DriveTime Automotive Group Inc. (DT), and it became public in 2017. The founder and CEO, Ernie Garcia Jr., is the son of the CEO and founder of DT. Carvana is a used vehicle retailer that sells 100% online, with direct delivery to customers or pickup at one of its vending machines. Carvana owns and manages its inventory and distribution network. The company sources its inventory from auction channels or directly from customers and reconditions them internally for sale. Carvana also offers financing to its customers and finances approximately 75%-80% of its sales.

Carvana has been rapidly growing since its inception and continues to expand its market penetration. The company operates in 272 markets as of Feb. 4, 2021, compared with 146 markets at year-end 2019. As of Dec. 31, 2020, Carvana had purchased, reconditioned, sold, and delivered approximately 587,600 vehicles, generating approximately $12.8 billion in revenue since its inception.

Key facts and observations
  • Carvana's nonprime (proprietary deal score 0-49) portfolio increased 48% year over year to approximately $2.7 billion as of Dec. 31, 2020. The company has not been profitable since its inception due to its focus on growth.
  • In 2019, Carvana issued four transactions comprising a mix of prime and subprime collateral. In 2020, it issued one prime transaction, series 2020-P1, and one subprime transaction, series 2020-N1. The company has issued two transactions so far this year: one prime (series 2021-P1) and one subprime (series 2021-N1). We currently maintain ratings on three Carvana transactions: series 2020-P1, 2021-P1, and 2021-N1.
  • The collateral characteristics for series 2020-N1 and 2021-N1 are similar, with the same weighted average LTV ratio of approximately 101.5% and FICO scores of 554 and 571, respectively. Loans with an original term of 61-72 months represented approximately 92% of the pools, while loans with an original term of 73-75 months represented approximately 6%-7%.
  • We also compared the series 2021-N1 collateral pool to those of other subprime issuers, including GLS, Exeter, and CPS. While the series 2021-N1 pool has a comparable weighted average FICO score and a significantly lower weighted average LTV (approximately 101.5%, compared with 112.0%-112.7% for some of its peers), it also has significantly more longer-term loans, less seasoning, and comprises 100% used vehicles.
  • The series 2021-N1 transaction has a unique structural feature: a targeted amortization, hybrid sequential/pro rata class structure. Principal will be paid sequentially to the most senior class until it has been reduced to its target balance, at which point some or all of the subordinate classes may be paid pro rata with the most senior class to the extent of available funds.
  • With 11 months of performance data, the series 2020-N1 pool has experienced 2.6% in CNLs at a 74.8% pool factor.
  • We derived our loss expectation for series 2021-N1 based on our analysis of static pool data, securitization performance, and peer comparisons. After applying our February 2021 COVID-19 adjustment, we expect the series 2021-N1 transaction to experience CNLs in the 20.00%-21.00% range.
Performance

Table 9

Carvana Auto Receivables Trust Collateral Performance
Series Current month Pool factor (%) Extension (%) Current CNL (%) Initial expected lifetime CNL (%) Revised expected lifetime CNL (%)
2020-N1(i) 11 74.80 1.26 2.62 N/A N/A
2021-N1 - - - 20.00-21.00 N/A
(i)Not rated by S&P Global Ratings.CNL--Cumulative net loss. N/A--Not applicable.

Chart 22

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Chart 23

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Chart 24

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Table 10

Carvana Auto Receivables Trust Collateral Comparison
(%)
CRVNA 2020-N1 CRVNA 2021-N1
Weighted avg. original term (mos.) 71.1 71.1
Weighted avg. remaining term (mos.) 69.2 69.9
Weighted avg. seasoning (mos.) 1.9 1.2
Loans with original terms of 61-72 mos. (%) 91.9 92.5
Loans with original terms of 73-75 mos. (%) 7.1 6.2
Weighted avg. LTV (%) 101.0 101.5
Weighted avg. FICO score 554.0 571.0
Percentage of loans with no FICO (%) 5.4 5.3
Weighted avg. APR (%) 19.4 19.3
WA downpayment 5.4 9.0

CPS Auto Receivables Trust

Credit analysts:

Peter W Chang, CFA, New York (1) 212-438-1505; peter.chang@spglobal.com

Dan Daley, New York, (1) 212-438-0020; dan.daley@spglobal.com

Issuer profile

Consumer Portfolio Services Inc. (CPS) was founded in 1991 and its executive headquarters are in Las Vegas. Most of the company's credit and underwriting functions are centralized at its Irvine, Calif. operational headquarters, with certain functions also performed at its Maitland, Fla. and Las Vegas offices. CPS provides indirect automobile financing to individuals with past credit problems, low incomes, or limited credit histories. The company purchases auto loans from franchised and independent automobile dealerships secured by late-model used vehicles and, to a lesser extent, new vehicles. CPS maintains dealer relationships in almost every state in the U.S.

Key facts and observations
  • CPS' auto loan portfolio decreased about 10.00% year over year to approximately $2.17 billion as of Dec. 31, 2020. The company, which is publicly owned, reported pre-tax income of $13.6 million in 2020 ($21.7 million net income), compared with $9.2 million in 2019 ($5.4 million net income).
  • The weighted average FICO score increased for the more recent transactions, rising to 572 for series 2021-A from 565 for series 2015-C.
  • While the weighted average LTV ratio was approximately 112%-113% for the late-2017 and early-2018 transactions, the subsequent series' have been slightly higher, rising to 114% for series 2021-A and 116% for series 2019-D.
  • The company's outstanding 2016 through early-2017 (series 2017-A) transactions are performing worse than our initial expectations. After applying our March 2020 COVID-19 adjustment, we expect these series to experience CNLs in the 19.75%-22.00% range. As a result of our higher loss expectations and the liquidity concerns for series 2016-A, in August 2020 we lowered our ratings on the class E notes from series 2015-C through 2017-A (series 2015-C has since paid off) and the class F notes from series 2016-A.
  • The series 2017-B through 2019 transactions are performing in line with or better than our initial expectations. After applying our COVID-19 adjustment, we expect series 2017-B through 2019 to experience CNLs in the 16.75%-21.25% range.
  • In August 2020, we upgraded 14 classes, affirmed 16 ratings, and downgraded eight classes across 11 CPS transactions (see "Various Rating Actions Taken On Six CPS Auto Receivables Trust Transactions," published Aug. 7, 2020, and "Nine Ratings Raised, One Lowered, 11 Affirmed On Five CPS Auto Receivables Trust Transactions," published Aug. 7, 2020). In November, we upgraded two classes and affirmed 10 ratings across two transactions and removed four of the ratings from CreditWatch (see "Various Rating Actions Taken On Two CPS Auto Receivables Trust Transactions," published Nov. 2, 2020. In December, we upgraded eight classes and affirmed six ratings across five transactions (see "Eight Ratings Raised, Six Affirmed On Five CPS Auto Receivables Trust Transactions," published Dec. 4, 2020).
Performance

Table 11

CPS Auto Receivables Trust Collateral Performance
Series Current month Pool factor (%) Extension (%) Current CNL (%) Initial expected lifetime CNL (%) Revised/maintained expected lifetime CNL (%)
2016-A 62 9.11 0.87 20.26 16.00-16.50 20.50-21.00(i)
2016-B 59 11.89 0.90 20.33 17.00-18.00 21.50-22.00(i)
2016-C 56 13.05 1.36 18.99 16.75-17.75 20.50-21.00(i)
2016-D 53 16.54 1.26 17.12 17.00-17.75 20.00-20.50(i)
2017-A 50 18.55 1.98 16.25 17.00-18.00 19.75-20.25(i)
2017-B 47 21.34 2.20 14.96 18.00-19.00 19.50-20.00(iii)
2017-C 44 22.38 2.36 12.68 18.00-19.00 16.75-17.25(iii)
2017-D 41 26.55 1.97 12.14 18.00-19.00 17.25-18.25(iii)
2018-A 38 29.94 2.60 10.53 18.00-19.00 17.00-18.00(i)
2018-B 35 33.85 2.60 9.72 18.00-19.00 18.00-19.00(i)
2018-C 32 33.66 2.98 8.98 17.00-18.00 16.75-17.75(iii)
2018-D 29 39.36 3.03 8.08 17.75-18.75 17.50-18.50(iii)
2019-A 26 45.86 3.25 6.84 17.75-18.75 18.25-19.25(i)
2019-B 23 52.12 3.04 5.96 18.50-19.50 20.00-21.00(i)
2019-C 20 57.38 3.49 5.61 18.50-19.50 20.25-21.25(ii)
2019-D 17 64.50 3.43 4.16 18.50-19.50 20.25-21.25(ii)
2020-A(iv) 14 69.46 3.25 2.90 N/A N/A
2020-B 10 79.52 3.04 1.68 21.50-22.50 N/A
2020-C(iv) 6 89.31 2.72 0.37 N/A N/A
2021-A 2 97.18 0.10 0.00 20.25-21.25 N/A
(i)Revised in August 2020. (ii)Revised in November 2020. (iii) Revised in December 2020. (iv)Not rated by S&P Global Ratings. CNL--Cumulative net loss. N/A--Not applicable.

Chart 25

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Chart 26

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Chart 27

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Table 12

CPS Auto Receivables Trust Collateral Comparison(i)
Series
2015-C 2016-A 2016-B 2016-C 2016-D 2017-A 2017-B 2017-C 2017-D 2018-A 2018-B
Weighted avg. original term (mos.) 67.93 67.60 67.36 68.17 68.41 67.99 68.24 68.60 68.69 68.94 68.66
Weighted avg. remaining term (mos.) 67.32 66.80 66.76 63.62 67.99 67.37 67.78 62.93 68.13 68.47 68.28
Weighted avg. seasoning (mos.) 0.61 0.80 0.60 4.56 0.42 0.62 0.46 5.67 0.57 0.47 0.39
Loans with original terms of 61-72 mos. (%) 76.76 70.70 71.85 75.81 69.69 74.43 76.64 77.99 78.98 80.55 79.07
Loans with original terms of 73-plus mos. (%) 0.00 0.56 0.00 0.00 6.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Weighted avg. LTV (%) 115.23 115.41 114.00 114.90 115.58 114.80 112.80 112.80 111.50 111.50 111.76
Weighted avg. FICO score 565.0 565.0 564.0 566.0 570.0 567.0 568.0 567.0 573.0 573.0 574.0
Percentage of loans with no FICO score (%) 7.32 8.59 10.38 9.34 9.77 8.30 10.10 8.62 8.39 8.06 9.32
Weighted avg. APR (%) 19.25 19.29 19.74 19.56 19.38 19.49 19.10 19.17 18.90 18.85 19.06
New vehicles (%) 25.90 25.76 21.02 24.44 25.26 24.31 22.38 24.53 27.76 27.78 22.58
Used vehicles (%) 74.10 74.24 78.98 75.56 74.74 75.69 77.62 75.47 72.24 72.22 77.42
Series
2018-C 2018-D 2019-A 2019-B 2019-C 2019-D 2020-A(ii) 2020-B 2020-C(ii) 2021-A
Weighted avg. original term (mos.) 68.80 69.18 68.94 68.43 68.29 68.33 68.62 68.15 68.63 69.25
Weighted avg. remaining term (mos.) 62.33 66.75 68.31 67.96 67.75 67.77 62.95 67.05 64.57 62.30
Weighted avg. seasoning (mos.) 6.47 2.43 0.63 0.47 0.54 0.56 5.67 1.10 4.06 6.95
Loans with original terms of 61-72 mos. (%) 79.39 81.98 79.94 76.45 75.14 75.47 76.99 74.18 74.09 81.45
Loans with original terms of 73-plus mos. (%) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Weighted avg. LTV (%) 112.64 113.88 114.51 114.20 115.42 115.64 115.75 115.19 114.31 114.33
Weighted avg. FICO score 574.0 564.0 563.0 560.4 561.2 562.1 561.3 561.0 572.0 571.8
Percentage of loans with no FICO score (%) 7.34 4.27 3.82 4.58 7.78 7.18 6.90 8.00

6.76

7.91
Weighted avg. APR (%) 18.83 18.16 18.09 18.90 19.45 19.32 19.24 19.70 19.27 18.97
New vehicles (%) 25.26 25.58 28.04 20.80 21.95 26.82 24.88 21.38 20.96 27.49
Used vehicles (%) 74.74 72.42 71.96 79.20 78.05 73.18 75.12 78.62 79.64 72.51
(i)Collateral reflects final pool post pre-funding for 2016-D and prior deals. Afterwards, it is reflective of collateral at closing. (ii)Not rated by S&P Global Ratings. LTV--Loan to value.

Credit Acceptance Auto Loan Trust

Credit analysts:

Timothy J Moran, CFA, FRM, (212) 438-2440, timothy.moran@spglobal.com

Jenna Cilento, New York (1) 212-438-1533; jenna.cilento@spglobal.com

Issuer profile

Credit Acceptance Corp. (CAC), is a publicly owned company that was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Southfield, Mich. The company reported net income of approximately $421.0 million in 2020, compared to consolidated net income of $656.1 million in 2019. Loans receivable net of allowance for credit losses totaled $6.8 billion as of year-end 2020.

Key facts and observations
  • CAC has a unique subprime auto finance model. The company generated approximately 64% of its originations, on average, from its portfolio program in 2020. Under this program, CAC makes loans directly to dealers (dealer advances) that are secured by retail installment sales contracts (RISCs). These dealer advances are securitized, and, unlike traditional subprime auto ABS, are at a significant discount relative to the face amount of the RISCs. CAC services the RISCs and transfers its secured rights in, and the cash flows from, them to the securitization trust. The RISC cash flows are used to repay the dealer advances and the ABS notes. The remaining 36% of CAC's originations are loans purchased from dealers at a high discount relative to the face amount of the contract.
  • CAC forecasts a collection rate for each retail installment sales contract as a basis for its advance rate.
  • Over the past 10 years, the advance rate on the company's portfolio program has ranged from approximately 42% to 47% of the initial balance of the retail installment contract (principal plus interest) and 45.0% to 52.0% for the purchase loan program. Since CAC's forecast collection rate on the retail installment contracts (principal and interest) is much higher (64%-74% for its portfolio program and 65%-76% for its purchased loan program), there is an embedded cushion against losses being higher than expected. Historically, actual collections on CAC's securitized pools have exceeded the forecast.
  • We monitor the CNLs on CAC's ABS from the time the pools go into amortization (following a two-year revolving period) until the rated notes are repaid in full relative to the RISC at the beginning of the amortization period and any RISC added during amortization. On this basis, CNLs on the series 2012-2 through 2017-3 paid-off transactions were 5.6%-11.4%.
  • CAC has nine outstanding rated transactions. Series 2018-1, 2018-2, 2018-3, and 2019-1 are in their amortization periods, while series 2019-3, 2020-1, 2020-2, 2020-3, and 2021-2 are in their revolving periods. The series 2018-1 through 2018-3 transactions are currently projecting total amortization period losses between 7.3%-7.6%. With only two months of amortization, it is too early to obtain a meaningful projection for series 2019-1. All four amortizing series have experienced a downtick in losses over the past month because of higher-than-anticipated collections relative to the forecasted collections.
  • In June 2020, we upgraded four classes and affirmed two classes across two transactions (see "Four Ratings Raised, Two Affirmed On Two Credit Acceptance Auto Loan Trust Transactions," published June 12, 2020). In December, upgraded six classes and affirmed three ratings across three transactions (see "Six Ratings Raised, Three Affirmed On Three Credit Acceptance Auto Loan Trust Transactions," published Dec. 9, 2020).
Performance

Chart 28

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DT Auto Owner Trust

Credit analysts:

Timothy J Moran, CFA, FRM, (212) 438-2440, timothy.moran@spglobal.com

Peter W Chang, (1) 212-438-1505; peter.chang@spglobal.com

Issuer profile

DriveTime Automotive Group Inc. (DT) was founded in 1992 in Phoenix, and it is privately owned by its founder and management. As of Dec. 31, 2020, DToperated 128 branded dealerships and 15 reconditioning facilities in 63 geographical areas across 26 states. DT's affiliate, DriveTime Car Sales Co. LLC (DTCS), provides direct financing to consumers with subprime credit who purchase used vehicles that are sold at these retail dealer lots. Bridgecrest Acceptance Corp. (formerly DT Acceptance Corp.) purchases the receivables that DTCS originates and sells them into the DT Auto Owner Trust asset-backed transactions.

Bridgecrest maintains two major collection centers in Dallas and Mesa, Arizona. Bridgecrest also serves as the servicer for loans originated by Carvana Group LLC, which is partially owned by the company's founder. Both DT and Bridgecrest were rated by S&P Global Ratings, but the ratings (B-/Negative/-) were withdrawn in December 2020 at the issuer's request (see "DriveTime Automotive Group Inc. Rating Withdrawn At Issuer's Request," published Dec. 2, 2020).

Key facts and observations
  • DT's auto loan portfolio decreased almost 12% year over year to approximately $4.1 billion as of Dec. 31, 2020. The company reported net income of $351.7 million in 2020.
  • The collateral characteristics for the more recent securitizations include more longer-term loans (61-72 months) and a smaller percentage of loans with no FICO score and loans in lower credit grade tiers. Loans with no FICO score represented approximately 10.3% of the series 2021-2 pool, compared with 19.7% for series 2017-2. The percentage of loans in DT's lowest five credit grade tiers decreased to 16.7% for series 2021-2, compared with 31.6% for series 2017-2. Meanwhile, the percentage of loans with an original term of 61-72 months increased to 93.6% from 86.9%.
  • DT has 15 outstanding transactions issued in 2017 through 2021, and they are performing in line with or better than our initial expectations. After applying our March 2020 COVID-19 adjustment, we expect the outstanding 2017, 2018, and series 2019-1 through 2019-3 transactions to experience CNLs of 28.25%-29.50%, 27.00%-28.50%, and 27.75%-32.00, respectively. After applying our February 2021 COVID-19 adjustment, we expect the series 2019-4 and 2020-1 transactions to experience CNLs of 26.75%-27.75%.
  • In September 2020, we upgraded 15 classes and affirmed 10 classes across six transactions (see "Fifteen Ratings Raised, And Four Affirmed On Six DT Auto Owner Trust Transactions," published Sept. 2, 2020). In October, we upgraded 10 ratings and affirmed two classes across two transactions and removed two ratings from CreditWatch negative (see "Ten Ratings Affirmed On Two DT Auto Owner Trust Transactions ; Two Tranches Removed From CreditWatch Negative," published Oct. 8, 2020). In December, we upgraded 10 classes and affirmed six ratings across five transactions (see "Ten Ratings Raised and Six Affirmed On Five DT Auto Owner Trust Transactions," published Dec. 1, 2020). In April 2021, we upgraded five classes and affirmed five ratings across two transactions (see "Five Ratings Raised And Five Affirmed On Two DT Auto Owner Trust Transactions," published Apr. 13, 2021)
Performance

Table 13

DT Auto Owner Trust Collateral Performance
Series Current month Pool factor (%) Extension (%) Current CNL (%) Initial expected lifetime CNL (%) Revised/maintained expected lifetime CNL (%)
2017-2 46 12.32 1.42 27.61 29.50-30.50 29.00-29.50(i)
2017-3 43 14.68 1.47 25.60 29.50-30.50 28.25-28.75(i)
2017-4 40 15.49 0.95 25.94 29.50-30.50 28.75-29.25(ii)
2018-1 36 22.38 2.21 22.13 29.00-30.00 27.25-27.75(ii)
2018-2 33 27.55 2.38 19.66 29.00-30.00 27.00-28.00(i)
2018-3 29 36.83 2.43 15.69 28.50-29.50 27.50-28.50(i)
2019-1 25 42.55 2.72 14.20 28.50-29.50 27.75-28.75(ii)
2019-2 22 50.07 2.60 12.43 28.50-29.50 28.25-29.25(ii)
2019-3 20 51.91 2.38 11.26 27.00-28.00 28.25-29.25(i)
2019-4 17 62.09 2.28 9.00 28.50-29.50 26.75-27.75(iv)
2020-1 13 71.80 1.88 6.16 28.50-29.50 26.75-27.75(iv)
2020-2 9 79.66 1.50 3.64 32.75-33.75 N/A
2020-3 6 87.67 1.20 2.34 32.75-33.75 N/A
2021-1 2 96.53 0.10 0.20 31.50-32.50 N/A
2021-2(v) - - - - 27.75-28.75 N/A
(i)Revised in December 2020. (ii)Revised in September 2020. (iii)Revised in October 2020. (iv)Revised in April 2021. (v)Closed in April 2021. CNL--Cumulative net loss. N/A--Not applicable.

Chart 29

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Chart 30

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Chart 31

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Table 14

DT Auto Owner Trust Collateral Comparison
Series
2017-2 2017-3 2017-4 2018-1 2018-2 2018-3 2019-1 2019-2
Weighted avg. original term (mos.) 65.0 65.0 63.0 63.6 64.4 65.1 65.0 65.3
Weighted avg. remaining term (mos.) 64.0 62.0 60.0 61.0 61.9 62.5 62.4 63.1
Weighted avg. seasoning (mos.) 2.0 2.0 3.0 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.3
Loans with original terms of 61-72 mos. (%) 86.9 84.5 77.8 78.1 83.1 84.5 84.3 85.3
Weighted avg. FICO score 538.0 543.0 539.0 540.0 530.3 542.5 542.7 541.4
Bottom five credit grades (%)(i) 31.6 30.1 29.4 21.3 23.0 17.1 19.5 20.3
Percentage of loans with no FICO score (%) 19.7 19.8 20.0 17.1 14.0 22.9 12.7 11.5
Weighted avg. APR (%) 20.1 19.8 20.0 19.1 20.1 19.8 21.3 21.1
New vehicles (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Used vehicles (%) 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Series
2019-3 2019-4 2020-1 2020-2 2020-3 2021-1 2021-2
Weighted avg. original term (mos.) 66.6 66.6 67.4 66.3 67.3 67.1 67.9
Weighted avg. remaining term (mos.) 60.6 64.6 64.5 61.2 64.3 64.4 64.9
Weighted avg. seasoning (mos.) 5.9 2.1 2.9 5.1 3.0 2.7 3.0
Loans with original terms of 61-72 mos. (%) 89.6 89.0 91.8 88.9 92.2 90.9 85.6
Weighted avg. FICO score 543.5 540.4 538.0 535.0 541.9 536.0 544.0
Bottom five credit grades (%)(i) 19.2 15.3 17.3 21.3 21.6 19.4 17.0
Percentage of loans with no FICO score (%) 13.6 12.3 12.4 13.3 11.9 13.9 10.3
Weighted avg. APR (%) 21.4 21.7 21.8 22.4 21.9 22.7 22.5
New vehicles (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Used vehicles (%) 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
(i)Credit grades C, C-, D+, D, and D-. N/A--Not available.

Exeter Automobile Receivables Trust

Credit analysts:

Jenna Cilento, New York, (1) 212-438-1533; jenna.cilento@spglobal.com

Dan Daley, New York, (1) 212-438-0020; dan.daley@spglobal.com

Issuer profile

Exeter Finance Corp. (Exeter) is based in Irving, Texas and was originally founded in 2006. The company was recapitalized in 2011 when it was acquired by The Blackstone Group L.P. (Blackstone). Blackstone, Navigation Capital Partners/Goldman Sachs & Co., and Exeter management own approximately 91.20%, 8.30%, and 0.50% of the company, respectively. From 2011 to 2014, the company used a branch origination model in which it had offices in 46 different markets. In mid-2014, it started to close these offices, and by mid-2015 it had centralized all originations and fundings into two centers in Irving, Texas and Clearfield, Utah. The Clearfield, Utah location was closed in mid-2020, and the operations were moved to the Irving, Texas location. Exeter originates auto loans indirectly through franchised and independent dealerships.

Contracts originated through the CarMax relationship represented approximately 37% of Exeter's business as of November 2020--an increase from 20% in 2017.

Key facts and observations
  • The company's auto loan portfolio increased approximately 13% to approximately $6.3 billion as of Dec. 31, 2020, from $5.6 billion a year earlier.
  • The company has been profitable since 2016 and reported pre-tax net income of $188.4 million as of November 2020.
  • The collateral characteristics for the more recent series generally have a higher percentage of CarMax loans, which, according to data provided by Exeter, typically perform better than its core originations. CarMax loans comprised approximately 36% of the series 2021-1 pool, compared with approximately 24% for series 2016-3. Concurrently, the pools' weighted average LTV ratios increased to approximately 112% for series 2021-1 from 110% for series 2016-3, while the percentage of used vehicles increased to approximately 95% for series 2021-1 from 82% for series 2016-3.
  • Exeter's outstanding series 2016-3 through 2020-1 transactions are generally performing in line with or worse than our initial loss expectations. Series 2017-1 is performing slightly better than our initial expectations. After applying our March 2020 COVID-19 adjustment, we expect the 2016-2018 and 2019-2021 transactions to experience CNLs in the 19.50%-21.50% and 22.25%-24.00% ranges, respectively.
  • Series 2016-3 through 2019-3 include triggers that will increase the overcollateralization target, and effectively stops releases from occurring, if losses exceed a scheduled level. None of the outstanding transactions have breached a trigger. The CNL trigger and associated step-up overcollateralization target were removed for the series 2019-4 and subsequent transactions.
  • In January 2020, we upgraded nine classes and affirmed two ratings across two transactions (see "Nine Ratings Raised And Two Ratings Affirmed On Two Exeter Automobile Receivables Trust Transactions," published Jan. 10, 2020. In October, we upgraded 25 classes and affirmed 12 ratings across 12 transactions and removed from four ratings from CreditWatch negative (see "Twenty-Five Ratings Raised And Fourteen Affirmed On Twelve Exeter Automobiles Receivables Trust Transactions," published Oct. 21, 2020.
Performance

Table 15

Exeter Automobile Receivables Trust Collateral Performance
Series Current month Pool factor (%) Extension (%) Current CNL (%) Initial expected lifetime CNL (%) Revised expected lifetime CNL (%)
2016-3 53 11.54 3.35 19.01 18.50-19.50 Up to 21.00(i)
2017-1 49 14.54 3.57 17.42 19.75-20.75 19.50-20.50(i)
2017-2 47 17.40 3.49 17.92 20.10-21.10 20.50-21.50(i)
2017-3 42 22.25 3.88 15.72 20.00-21.00 20.00-21.00(i)
2018-1 38 24.73 3.88 15.17 20.00-21.00 20.25-21.25(i)
2018-2 35 29.24 4.16 14.57 20.50-21.50 20.50-21.50(i)
2018-3 32 34.50 4.09 13.79 20.50-21.50 20.50-21.50(ii)
2018-4 29 36.84 4.17 12.18 20.50-21.50 20.50-21.50(ii)
2019-1 26 42.67 4.19 11.47 20.50-21.50 22.25-23.25(i)
2019-2 23 48.48 4.26 10.45 20.50-21.50 22.50-23.50(i)
2019-3 20 54.55 4.16 8.64 20.50-21.50 22.75-23.75(i)
2019-4 17 59.82 4.06 7.28 20.50-21.50 23.00-24.00(i)
2020-1 14 67.52 4.02 5.79 20.50-21.50 23.00-24.00(i)
2020-2 9 77.46 3.28 2.95 23.75-24.75 N/A
2020-3 6 86.98 3.15 1.49 23.50-24.50 N/A
2021-1 1 96.91 0.69 0.02 23.00-24.00 N/A
(i)Revised or maintained in October 2020. (ii)Revised in January 2020. CNL--Cumulative net loss. N/A--Not applicable.

Chart 32

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Table 16

Exeter Automobile Receivables Trust Collateral Comparison
Series
2016-3 2017-1 2017-2 2017-3 2018-1 2018-2 2018-3 2018-4 2019-1
Weighted avg. original term (mos.) 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 69.5 69.5 69.6 69.5 69.2
Weighted avg. remaining term (mos.) 66.0 65.0 67.0 67.0 65.7 65.7 68.4 65.6 67.7
Weighted avg. seasoning (mos.) 4.0 5.0 2.0 3.0 3.8 3.8 1.3 4.0 1.5
Loans with original terms of 61-72 mos. (%) 84.5 84.5 83.4 82.5 82.7 82.6 84.0 83.9 82.0
Weighted avg. LTV (%) 110.2 110.4 110.5 111.9 110.6 111.5 112.0 113.0 113.6
Weighted avg. FICO score 575.0 577.0 574.0 566.0 567.0 565.0 568.0 568.0 565.0
Percentage of loans with no FICO score (%) 7.9 7.5 8.1 7.9 7.3 8.7 7.0 6.4 7.5
Percentage of loans with FICO score less than 540 (%) 24.2 23.0 25.5 28.8 28.4 30.2 28.0 28.0 30.4
Percentage of loans with FICO score between 540-564 (%) 17.7 17.2 16.6 18.5 18.3 19.3 13.2 17.1 12.3
Percentage of loans with FICO score between 565-599 (%) 23.7 23.8 23.5 23.6 23.5 24.3 26.9 22.9 25.1
Percentage of loans with FICO score between 600-659 (%) 20.5 22.0 21.3 18.2 18.7 19.7 20.9 21.5 20.7
Percentage of loans with FICO score of 660 and more (%) 6.1 6.3 5.5 3.3 3.8 3.7 4.1 4.1 4.1
Weighted avg. APR (%) 20.6 20.8 21.2 21.9 21.9 21.7 21.5 21.6 21.7
New vehicles (%) 18.2 24.5 19.4 20.8 26.8 23.7 26.7 23.1 17.5
Used vehicles (%) 81.9 75.5 80.6 79.2 73.2 76.3 73.3 76.9 82.5
Series
2019-2 2019-3 2019-4 2020-1 2020-2 2020-3 2021-1
Weighted avg. original term (mos.) 69.2 69.3 69.7 69.6 69.6 70.1 70.4
Weighted avg. remaining term (mos.) 66.6 66.3 66.4 68.2 66.3 66.8 67.7
Weighted avg. seasoning (mos.) 2.6 2.9 3.5 1.5 3.3 3.3 2.7
Loans with original terms of 61-72 mos. (%) 84.0 84.1 86.0 85.6 84.7 88.2 89.6
Weighted avg. LTV (%) 113.2 114.8 114.0 114.3 113.6 110.9 112.0
Weighted avg. FICO score 556.1 558.0 559.9 563.1 559.0 566.5 572.5
Percentage of loans with no FICO score (%) 9.1 8.9 8.5 8.9 8.1 5.4 5.7

Percentage of loans with FICO score less than 540 (%)

38.9 38.1 41.8 34.4 33.3 28.5 23.1
Percentage of loans with FICO score between 540-564 (%) 16.8 17.0 15.5 16.8 15.9 17.9 18.3
Percentage of loans with FICO score between 565-599 (%) 22.0 21.8 20.2 23.3 22.5 25.0 27.5
Percentage of loans with FICO score between 600-659 (%) 18.6 19.3 18.7 20.4 16.1 18.7 20.9
Percentage of loans with FICO score of 660 and more (%) 3.8 3.9 3.8 5.2 4.1 4.5 4.5
Weighted avg. APR (%) 22.0 21.9 21.5 21.7 21.7 21.1 21.1
New vehicles (%) 13.1 11.5 12.8 13.8 8.7 3.5 5.5
Used vehicles (%) 86.9 88.5 87.2 86.2 91.3 96.5 94.5
LTV--Loan-to-value.

First Investors Auto Owner Trust

Credit analysts:

Ethan Choi, New York (1) 212-438-1043; ethan.choi@spglobal.com

Zarif Ahmed, New York (1) 212-438-6690; zarif.ahmed@spglobal.com

Issuer profile

First Investors Financial Services Inc. (First Investors) is headquartered in Houston and was founded in 1989 by its current president and CEO. In 2012, the company was acquired by Aquiline Capital Partners LLC, a private equity firm. In December 2020, the company was acquired by funds affiliated with Gallatin Point Capital. The company's executive management team will remain in place and no fundamental changes are expected in its business strategies.

First Investors originates auto loans sourced by automobile dealers (indirect auto loans) and makes auto loans directly to consumers to refinance existing automobile loans (direct auto loans). The company operates in 47 states and specializes in lending to consumers with impaired credit profiles, a significant percentage of whom previously filed for bankruptcy. First Investors generated positive net income for its fiscal year ended April 30, 2021, excluding the impact of transaction costs related to its merger with an affiliate of Gallatin Point Capital.

Key facts and observations
  • The company's managed portfolio decreased 14% to $0.90 billion as of Oct. 31, 2020, from $1.05 billion a year earlier.
  • The more recent securitizations have consisted of more direct loans and used vehicles. Direct loans represented 47.3% of the series 2021-1 pool, compared with 19.3% for series 2016-2. First Investors' direct program has historically experienced lower losses than its indirect lending program. Used vehicles increased to approximately 90.4% of the series 2021-1 pool, compared with 73.2% for series 2016-2.
  • First Investors has 10 outstanding transactions issued from 2016 to 2021, and they are performing in line with or better than our initial or revised expectations. After applying our March 2020 COVID-19 adjustment, we expect the series 2016-2 through 2021-1 transactions to experience CNLs in the 10.50%-13.00% range.
  • In August 2020, we upgraded five classes and affirmed 12 ratings across four transactions (see "Five Ratings Raised And 12 Affirmed On Four First Investors Auto Owner Trust Transactions," published Aug. 7, 2020). In October, we affirmed four classes on two transactions and removed the ratings from CreditWatch negative (see "First Investors Auto Owner Trust Ratings Affirmed On Series 2019-2 And 2020-1; Four Ratings Off CreditWatch," published Oct. 30, 2020). In November, we upgraded 10 classes and affirmed nine ratings across five transactions (see "Ten Ratings Raised On Five First Investors Auto Owner Trust; Nine Ratings Affirmed," published Nov. 24, 2020).
Performance

Table 17

First Investors Auto Owner Trust Collateral Performance
Series Current month Pool factor (%) Extension (%) Current CNL (%) Initial expected lifetime CNL (%) Revised expected lifetime CNL (%)
2016-2 54 10.94 1.38 11.92 9.00-9.50 12.50-13.00(i)
2017-1 49 14.58 1.35 10.33 9.75-10.25 11.25-11.75(i)
2017-2 44 19.20 2.23 9.58 10.25-10.75 11.50-12.00(i)
2017-3 40 23.22 2.44 9.14 10.75-11.25 11.50-12.00(i)
2018-1 34 28.40 3.12 6.44 11.75-12.25 10.50-11.00(i)
2018-2 28 36.16 2.27 5.62 11.75-12.25 11.50-12.00(ii)
2019-1 23 42.74 1.58 4.05 9.75-10.25 11.50-12.00(ii)
2019-2 17 56.03 1.91 2.93 10.75-11.25 11.00-11.50(iii)
2020-1 12 64.19 2.09 2.01 10.75-11.25 11.00-11.50(iii)
2021-1 2 95.80 0.82 0.01 11.75-12.25 N/A
(i)Revised in November 2020. (ii)Revised in August 2020. (iii)Revised in October 2020. CNL--Cumulative net loss. N/A--Not applicable.

Chart 35

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Table 18

First Investors Auto Owner Trust Collateral Comparison
Series
2016-2 2017-1 2017-2 2017-3 2018-1 2018-2
Weighted avg. original term (mos.) 70.2 70.2 70.3 70.4 69.5 69.4
Weighted avg. remaining term (mos.) 68.3 67.6 68.1 69.3 66.3 66.7
Weighted avg. seasoning (mos.) 1.9 2.6 2.2 1.2 3.2 2.7
Loans with original terms of 61-72 mos. (%) 92.2 92.5 92.2 92.3 90.1 89.3
Weighted avg. LTV (%) 122.6 122.8 122.4 122.4 125.3 125.0
Weighted avg. FICO score 587.0 587.0 587.0 586.0 589.0 593.0
Weighted avg. APR (%) 13.2 13.6 13.8 14.5 13.8 13.8
New vehicles (%) 26.8 28.3 23.3 31.1 19.4 18.1
Used vehicles (%) 73.2 71.7 76.7 68.9 80.6 81.9
Direct loans (%) 19.3 21.5 23.1 22.5 43.7 45.9
Series
2019-1 2019-2 2020-1 2021-1
Weighted avg. original term (mos.) 68.2 70.0 69.9 70.7
Weighted avg. remaining term (mos.) 65.4 67.0 60.6 66.4
Weighted avg. seasoning (mos.) 2.8 3.0 9.3 4.3
Loans with original terms of 61-72 mos. (%) 85.8 90.7 91.9 93.5
Weighted avg. LTV (%) 131.1 127.1 127.6 123.9
Weighted avg. FICO score 595.0 583.0 579.8 581.4
Weighted avg. APR (%) 13.5 14.5 14.6 14.7
New vehicles (%) 8.2 8.6 14.7 9.9
Used vehicles (%) 91.9 91.4 85.3 90.2
Direct loans (%) 64.7 43.3 40.1 48.0
LTV--Loan-to-value.

Flagship Credit Auto Trust

Credit analysts:

Sanjay Narine, (1) 416-507-2548; sanjay.narine@spglobal.com

Dan Daley, New York, (1) 212-438-0020; dan.daley@spglobal.com

Issuer profile

Flagship Credit Corp. (Flagship) was founded in 2005. The company contracted during the Great Recession and was acquired in 2010 by investment funds affiliated with Perella Weinberg Partners (PWP). In January 2015, the company merged with CarFinance Capital LLC. The merged company provides financing to mid-tier buyers of new and used vehicles, primarily at franchised dealerships. The company is headquartered in Chadds Ford, Pa.

Flagship originates indirect automobile loan contracts in 48 states across over 12,000 dealerships, of which approximately 87% are franchised. It also originates direct loans through CarFinance.com. Flagship is led by a seasoned management team with many years of experience in consumer finance, particularly subprime auto lending. The company is the servicer for its auto loan platforms.

Key facts and observations
  • Flagship's managed portfolio decreased approximately 4% year over year to $3.1 billion as of December 2020, reflecting the general slowdown in origination due to the pandemic-related market dislocation in 2020.
  • The company's audited 2018 and 2019 financial statements show a return to profitability of $9.5 million and $30.7 million, respectively. Profitability from 2015 through 2017 was primarily affected by increased loan loss provisions. The company responded by prudently reducing origination volume and focusing on better-quality credits. Equity contributions from the company's equity partner also provided stability. We view the return to profitability as a credit positive.
  • The company reduced its lending to borrowers without FICO scores to 0.0% for the series 2017-3 through 2019-4 transactions and to less than 1.0% for the series 2020-1 through 2021-1 transactions, compared with 10.5% for the series 2014-2. It also reduced the percentage of thin file obligors to 1.4% in series 2021-1, compared with 4.8% in series 2017-1 and 15.0% in series 2015-1. In addition, military lending decreased to 0.2% for series 2021-1 from a high of 15.6% in series 2014-1, and direct loan originations increased to 25.7% for series 2021-1 from 16.7% for series 2016-3. Historical data from first-quarter 2016 and later indicate that the company's direct loans are performing better than its indirect loans.
  • The weighted average seasoning for the 2020 and 2021 transactions is 2.1 months to 9.0 months, compared with less than 2.0 months for the 2016 through 2019 transactions. This resulted from the inclusion of a higher percentage of called collateral.
  • CNLs on Flagship's securitizations appear to have peaked with the series 2016-3 and 2016-4 issuances. After applying our March 2020 COVID-19 adjustment, we expect the series 2016-3 and 2016-4 transactions to experience CNLs in the 14.00%-14.75% range. Our revised expected loss levels for most of the series 2017-1 through 2020-1 transactions are lower--in the 11.50%-13.25% range--after applying our February 2021 COVID-19 adjustment.
  • In January 2020, we upgraded 21 classes and affirmed 10 ratings across eight transactions (see "Various Rating Actions Taken On Eight Flagship Credit Auto Trust Deals," published Jan. 30, 2020). In September, we upgraded 14 classes and affirmed 17 ratings on eight transactions (see "Various Rating Actions Taken On Eight Flagship Credit Auto Trust Transactions," published on Sept. 11, 2020). In October, we upgraded one class and affirmed 14 ratings across three transactions (see "Various Ratings Actions Taken On Three Flagship Credit Auto Trust Transactions," published Oct. 29, 2020).
Performance

Table 19

Flagship Credit Auto Trust Collateral Performance
Series Current month Pool factor (%) Extension (%) Current CNL (%) Initial expected lifetime CNL (%) Revised expected lifetime CNL (%)
2016-3 55 12.03 1.67 12.95 11.50-12.00 14.00-14.50(i)
2016-4 52 14.20 2.28 12.85 11.75-12.25 14.25-14.75(i)
2017-1 49 17.42 2.37 11.59 13.00-13.50 13.50-14.00(i)
2017-2 45 20.88 1.77 9.54 12.80-13.30 11.50-12.00(ii)
2017-3 43 24.93 2.11 8.60 12.75-13.25 11.75-12.25(ii)
2017-4 39 28.08 2.33 8.70 12.75-13.25 12.00-12.50(ii)
2018-1 37 31.12 2.42 8.33 12.75-13.25 12.25-12.75(ii)
2018-2 34 37.34 3.11 7.25 12.50-13.00 12.75-13.25(i)
2018-3 31 40.88 3.28 7.30 12.50-13.00 13.50-14.00(i)
2018-4 28 44.97 3.12 6.88 12.25-12.75 12.50-13.00(ii)
2019-1 25 50.29 3.60 6.06 12.25-12.75 12.75-13.25(ii)
2019-2 22 55.74 4.08 4.84 12.25-12.75 12.50-13.00(ii)
2019-3 19 62.19 3.50 4.14 12.25-12.75 12.75-13.25(ii)
2019-4 16 68.05 3.28 3.15 12.00-12.50 12.25-12.75(ii)
2020-1 13 72.44 3.11 1.93 12.00-12.50 12.50-13.00(ii)
2020-2 10 75.72 2.93 1.14 14.00-14.50 N/A
2020-3 7 86.12 2.69 0.63 14.00-14.50 N/A
2020-4 4 92.33 1.05 0.09 13.25-13.75 N/A
2021-1 1 98.56 0.30 0.00 13.00-13.50 N/A
(i)Revised in September 2020. (ii)Revised in May 2021. CNL--Cumulative net loss. N/A--Not applicable.

Chart 38

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Table 20

Flagship Credit Auto Trust Collateral Comparison By Series
Series
2016-3 2016-4 2017-1 2017-2 2017-3 2017-4 2018-1
Weighted avg. original term (mos.) 70.63 70.76 70.86 70.61 70.70 70.75 70.67
Weighted avg. remaining term (mos.) 69.40 68.99 69.57 69.43 69.96 69.75 69.35
Weighted avg. seasoning (mos.) 1.23 1.77 1.29 1.18 0.74 0.99 1.32
Loans with original terms of 61-72 mos. (%) 84.36 90.96 90.75 89.99 89.91 89.66 90.50
Loans with original terms of 73-78 mos. (%) 3.03 1.45 1.38 1.55 1.84 2.88 0.66
Weighted avg. LTV (%) 119.18 119.04 119.19 117.96 120.23 121.02 122.37
Weighted avg. FICO score 597.0 594.0 594.0 595.0 597.0 593.0 593.0
Percentage of loans with no FICO score (%) 4.96 4.52 2.65 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00
Weighted avg. APR (%) 15.31 15.81 15.58 15.26 14.55 15.30 15.91
New vehicles (%) 24.25 28.37 30.85 30.07 32.99 34.28 28.55
Used vehicles (%) 75.75 71.63 69.15 69.93 67.01 65.72 71.45
Direct (%) 16.68 12.85 13.53 16.63 19.08 19.60 20.81
Series
2018-2 2018-3 2018-4 2019-1 2019-2 2019-3
Weighted avg. original term (mos.) 70.81 70.77 70.62 70.36 69.91 69.84
Weighted avg. remaining term (mos.) 70.16 70.20 70.03 69.72 68.76 69.17
Weighted avg. seasoning (mos.) 0.66 0.57 0.59 0.64 1.15 0.68
Loans with original terms of 61-72 mos. (%) 90.92 90.08 88.60 87.00 86.04 83.49
Loans with original terms of 73-78 mos. (%) 0.65 0.74 1.08 0.88 0.41 0.65
Weighted avg. LTV (%) 120.12 120.83 120.33 121.94 120.18 122.51
Weighted avg. FICO score 590.00 591.00 589.00 589.00 590.17 588.00
Percentage of loans with no FICO score (%) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02
Weighted avg. APR (%) 16.38 16.14 16.23 16.40 16.20 16.16
New vehicles (%) 26.86 30.29 27.82 25.25 22.57 23.77
Used vehicles (%) 73.14 69.71 72.18 74.75 77.43 76.23
Direct (%) 15.41 17.47 17.20 17.48 16.35 20.19
Series
2019-4 2020-1 2020-2 2020-3 2020-4 2021-1
Weighted avg. original term (mos.) 70.11 70.18 70.28 69.62 70.07 70.14
Weighted avg. remaining term (mos.) 69.39 66.76 64.10 67.55 62.15 63.71
Weighted avg. seasoning (mos.) 0.71 3.42 6.18 2.07 7.92 6.44
Loans with original terms of 61-72 mos. (%) 85.70 86.46 87.36 83.12 85.00 84.66
Loans with original terms of 73-78 mos. (%) 0.57 0.57 0.43 0.21 1.17 1.70
Weighted avg. LTV (%) 123.03 123.30 121.96 123.34 120.41 120.81
Weighted avg. FICO score 589.4 587.5 586.6 593.8 591.3 595.3
Percentage of loans with no FICO score (%) 0.00 0.40 0.44 0.10 0.38 0.55
Weighted avg. APR (%) 15.95 16.14 16.14 16.37 15.55 15.36
New vehicles (%) 23.76 22.12 22.20 17.12 21.98 21.64
Used vehicles (%) 76.24 77.88 77.80 82.88 78.02 78.36
Direct (%) 23.23 21.11 16.26 29.13 26.50 26.14
(i)For series 2016-through 2018-4, the collateral reflects final pool post prefunding. For the subsequent pools, the collater reflect the collateral at closing. LTV--Loan to value.

Global Lending Services LLC

Credit analysts:

Jenna Cilento, New York, (1) 212-438-1533; jenna.cilento@spglobal.com

Dan Daley, New York, (1) 212-438-0020; dan.daley@spglobal.com

Issuer profile

Global Lending Services LLC (GLS) was founded in 2011 by Doug Duncan, who previously founded and led Safe-Guard Products International LLC for 20 years. GLS is 80.0% owned by Assured Investment Management LLC, and it started operations in Greenville, S.C., in August 2012 after acquiring Resurgent Auto Finance.

GLS is an independent auto finance company that buys auto retail installment sales contracts secured by new and used vehicles from automobile dealers. GLS primarily offers financing to consumers who are unable to obtain financing from traditional financing sources such as banks, credit unions, and captive automobile finance companies. GLS' typical customer has experienced prior credit difficulties, a limited credit history, and a FICO score generally ranging from 470 to 620. GLS funds its contract originations through its warehouse lines of credit and an arrangement with its flow purchase partners.

Key facts and observations
  • GLS' managed portfolio has grown significantly since 2013, increasing to $2.7 billion as of Dec. 31, 2020, from $117 million as of year-end 2013. The portfolio grew approximately 9.5% year over year as of Dec. 31, 2020.
  • Although the company has been profitable since 2017, its profitability is largely due to its whole-loan sales arrangements, which have allowed it to book gains at the time of these sales.
  • The collateral characteristics for GLS' securitizations have been relatively stable, though the weighted average FICO score increased to 570 for series 2021-1 from 556 for series 2017-1.
  • The transactions have slightly higher LTV ratios (approximately 118%-119% for recent securitizations) than some of GLS' peers because, according to GLS, a larger percentage of the obligors purchased extended warranties or other ancillary products. These products, which often help to reduce losses by providing coverage for repairs or vehicle damage, are enticing for dealers because they allow them to earn additional profits on the vehicle sales. In addition, the pools' weighted average APR of approximately 18%-19% is slightly lower than many of GLS' competitors.
  • Unlike most other issuers, GLS' transactions include a representation that all the contracts in its pool have made at least one payment.
  • GLS has 13 outstanding transactions issued from 2017 through 2021, and they are performing in line with or better than our initial expectations. After applying our February 2021 COVID-19 adjustment, we expect the series 2017-1 through 2020-4 transactions to experience CNLs in the 14.50%-19.50% range and the series 2021-1 transaction to experience CNLs in the 19.50%-20.50% range.
  • Starting with series 2020-3, we removed our ratings cap on GLS' securitizations, based on GLS' continued profitability, ability to execute on its business strategy of growing its portfolio size while sustaining consistent credit trends since 2017, and the stable to improved performance of its rated securitizations.
  • In April, we upgraded 21 classes and affirmed eight ratings across nine transactions (see "Various Rating Actions Taken On Two GLS Auto Receivables Trust And Seven GLS Auto Receivables Issuer Trust Deals," published April 29, 2021).
Performance

Table 21

GLS Auto Receivables Trust Collateral Performance
Series Current month Pool factor (%) Extension (%) Current CNL (%) Initial expected lifetime CNL (%) Revised expected lifetime CNL (%)
2017-1 45 18.39 1.95 14.68 21.00-22.00 Up to 15.50(i)
2018-1 39 25.89 2.43 11.59 21.00-22.00 14.50-15.00(i)
2018-2 33 33.55 3.14 10.99 19.50-20.50 15.75-16.75(i)
2018-3 29 39.57 3.29 9.77 19.50-20.50 16.00-17.00(i)
2019-1 25 45.27 3.23 9.46 19.25-20.25 18.00-19.00(i)
2019-2 22 51.56 3.13 7.61 19.25-20.25 18.00-19.00(i)
2019-3 19 59.07 3.08 5.99 19.25-20.25 18.25-19.25(i)
2019-4 16 65.29 2.97 4.62 18.50-19.50 18.50-19.50(i)
2020-1 13 72.41 2.69 3.32 18.50-19.50 18.50-19.50(i)
2020-2 9 81.21 2.51 2.19 21.50-22.50 N/A
2020-3 7 85.12 2.73 1.37 21.50-22.50 N/A
2020-4 3 95.51 0.54 0.04 21.25-22.25 N/A
2021-1(ii) - - - - 19.50-20.50 N/A
(i)Revised in April 2020.(ii)Closed in March. CNL--Cumulative net loss. N/A--Not applicable.

Chart 41

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Chart 42

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Chart 43

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Table 22

GLS Auto Receivables Trust Collateral Comparison
Series
2017-1 2018-1 2018-2 2018-3 2019-1 2019-2 2019-3 2019-4 2020-1 2020-2 2020-3 2020-4 2021-1
Weighted avg. original term (mos.) 69.46 68.91 68.69 69.03 68.97 69.44 69.34 69.50 69.16 68.83 68.85 68.84 69.66
Weighted avg. remaining term (mos.) 63.38 64.78 65.34 66.25 65.65 66.15 66.07 66.26 66.40 65.77 64.46 65.85 65.50
Weighted avg. seasoning (mos.) 6.08 4.13 3.35 2.78 3.32 3.29 3.27 3.24 2.76 3.06 4.39 2.99 4.16
Loans with original terms of 61-72 mos. (%) 85.49 83.68 82.65 83.92 83.57 85.16 84.58 85.45 83.46 81.09 81.34 81.68 86.72
Weighted avg. LTV (%) 119.65 117.42 117.20 116.87 116.84 117.97 118.15 118.86 119.68 121.31 119.54 118.04 118.82
Weighted avg. FICO score 556.0 564.0 561.0 560.0 556.0 560.0 561.0 563.0 564.0 564.0 569.0 573.0 570.0
Percentage of loans with no FICO score (%) 7.68 5.69 6.75 6.12 6.25 6.75 6.91 6.32 7.07 8.43 7.41 7.42 7.05
Weighted avg. APR (%) 18.47 17.54 18.16 18.08 18.22 18.00 18.35 18.06 18.54 18.69 18.10 18.85 18.39
New vehicles (%) 22.72 27.23 23.64 29.57 32.01 28.21 24.64 26.89 22.03 17.32 19.44 20.62 19.64
Used vehicles (%) 77.28 72.77 76.36 70.43 67.99 71.79 75.36 73.12 77.97 82.68 80.56 79.38 80.36
LTV--Loan-to-value.

Prestige Auto Receivables Trust

Credit analysts:

Timothy J Moran, CFA, FRM, (1) 212-438-2440; timothy.moran@spglobal.com

Zarif Ahmed, New York, (1) 212-438-6690; zarif.ahmed@spglobal.com

Issuer profile

Prestige Financial Services Inc. (Prestige) is part of the privately held Larry H. Miller Group of Cos. (Miller Group). The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Salt Lake City. Prestige provides financing to franchised automobile dealerships by acquiring auto loans from both the Miller Group (approximately 5%-7%) and non-Miller Group dealerships. The company's target market consists of credit-impaired buyers, many of whom have had a previous bankruptcy but have offsetting strengths such as relatively stable employment, income, and residential history, as well as a history of paying previous credit as agreed. Loans to individuals with a recent bankruptcy comprise 30%-48% of Prestige's outstanding pools.

Key facts and observations
  • The company's managed portfolio decreased by approximately 14% year over year to $973.9 million as of Dec. 31, 2020.
  • The collateral pools consist of a large portion bankruptcy collateral. In its most recent transaction, series 2020-1, the percentage of Chapter 7 and 13 bankruptcy loans increased to 44.2% from 30.2% for series 2019-1. Prestige's static pool data indicate that bankruptcy collateral typically exhibits lower losses than non-bankruptcy collateral. In addition, the percentage of loans with an original term of 61-72 months increased to 94.2% for series 2020-1 from 91.9% for series 2019-1.
  • Prestige has five outstanding transactions: series 2016-2, 2017-1, 2018-1, 2019-1, and 2020-1. The series 2016-2 transaction is trending toward CNLs of up to 16.25%, which is higher than our initial ENCL of 13.00%-13.75%. Series 2017-1 is performing significantly better (perhaps due to a higher percentage of bankruptcy collateral) with an ECNL of 13.25%-13.75%.
  • Before the COVID-19 pandemic, series 2018-1 and 2019-1 were trending in line to worse than series 2016-2. In April 2021, we revised our ECNL for series 2018-1 to 14.25%-14.75% from 13.00%-13.75% at closing after accounting for our February 2021 COVID adjustment. We also revised our ENCL for series 2019-1 to 17.00%-18.00% from 13.25%-14.00%. We believe these transactions' early worse-than-expected performance is attributable to Prestige's implementation of a new, externally developed custom score card in March 2018. The initial growing pains associated with this score card were, according to the company, rectified by a series of credit adjustments throughout 2019, culminating in the January 2020 roll out of a new scoring model that included significantly more data. Due to federal aid following the pandemic, series 2018-1, which has 30 months of performance data, is now tracking in line with series 2017-1.
  • In April 2021, we upgraded nine classes and affirmed five ratings across four transactions (see "Nine Ratings Raised And Five Affirmed On Four Prestige Auto Receivables Trust Transactions," published on April 13, 2021).
Performance

Table 23

Prestige Auto Receivables Trust Collateral Performance
Series Current month Pool factor (%) Extension (%) Current CNL (%) Initial expected lifetime CNL (%) Revised expected lifetime CNL (%)
2016-2 53 13.08 2.21 15.76 13.00-13.75 Up to 16.25(i)
2017-1 43 20.38 2.33 12.00 13.00-13.75 13.25-13.75(i)
2018-1 30 37.00 2.41 9.34 13.00-13.75 14.25-14.75(i)
2019-1 20 54.99 2.88 6.40 13.25-14.00 17.00-18.00(i)
2020-1 5 89.58 1.83 0.55 18.25.19.25 N/A
(i)Revised in April 2021. CNL--Cumulative net loss. N/A--Not applicable.

Chart 44

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Chart 45

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Chart 46

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Table 24

Prestige Auto Receivables Trust Collateral Comparison
Series
2016-2 2017-1 2018-1 2019-1 2020-1
Weighted avg. original term (mos.) 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.4
Weighted avg. remaining term (mos.) 66.0 63.0 63.8 66.0 61.2
Weighted avg. seasoning (mos.) 4.0 8.0 6.2 4.0 9.2
Loans with original terms of 61-72 mos. (%) 93.4 92.8 92.1 94.2 94.2
Weighted avg. LTV (%) 132.8 133.0 132.4 132.3 132.0
Weighted avg. FICO score 526.0 525.0 533.0 536.0 535.0
Percentage of loans with no FICO score (%) 18.5 18.6 18.8 19.3 18.5
Weighted avg. APR (%) 8.3 7.9 10.1 10.8 11.6
New vehicles (%) 91.7 92.1 89.9 89.2 88.4
Used vehicles (%) 41.7 45.6 38.3 30.2 44.2
LTV--Loan-to-value.

Santander Consumer USA Inc.

Credit analysts:

Jenna Cilento, New York, (1) 212-438-1533; jenna.cilento@spglobal.com

Zarif Ahmed, New York, (1) 212-438-6690; zarif.ahmed@spglobal.com

Issuer profile

Santander Consumer USA Inc. (SC) was founded in 1997 as Drive Financial Services and acquired by Banco Santander S.A. in 2006. The Dallas-based company became part of Santander Holdings USA Inc. (SHUSA) in 2009 and went public in January 2014. As of February 2021, SHUSA had an approximately 80.2% ownership in SC.

SC's auto business has grown significantly through acquisitions and portfolio purchases completed from 2008 through 2010, as well as the May 1, 2013, agreement with Chrysler Group LLC to form Chrysler Capital, the automaker's preferred lender. In 2020, SC achieved an average annual Fiat Chrysler penetration rate of approximately 34% (inclusive of dealer floorplan financing).

SC's managed auto loan portfolio, which includes the receivables it securitizes under its Santander Drive Auto Receivables Trust (SDART) shelf and DRIVE Auto Receivables Trust (DRIVE), its deep subprime shelf, increased approximately 6.2% to $27.9 billion as of Dec. 31, 2020.

According to the company's 2020 full-year earnings presentation, auto loan originations increased 4% to $23.7 billion. Chrysler Capital loans with FICO scores greater than or equal to 640 reported the most growth, increasing 31% year over year, while Chrysler Capital loans with FICO scores less than 640 and leases decreased 14% and 20%, respectively. As of Dec. 31, 2020, SC had $49.0 billion in total assets, $45.0 billion in finance receivables and leases (net of allowance), and $5.6 billion in shareholder equity. The company reported net income of $911.0 million in 2020.

Beginning in 2017, SC added a representation to its securitization documents requiring all securitized loans to have made their first two payments. If the loans do not make their first two payments, the company will buy back these receivables. SC had already voluntarily employed this practice, but it decided to codify it in 2017. This representation is present in the SDART and DRIVE securitizations.

In March 2020, SC revised its servicing practices to increase the permitted maximum number of monthly extensions to 12 from eight. Each extension ranges from one to three months, and each extension is limited to a maximum of three months.

Key facts and observations - SDART
  • The recent SDART securitizations have more loans with an original term of 73-75 months and lower LTV ratios. Loans with an original term of 73-75 months increased to 15.3% for series 2020-4, compared with 12.3% for series 2017-1, while the weighted average LTV decreased to 106.9% from 109.2%.
  • SC has 15 outstanding SDART transactions issued between 2017 and 2020, nine of which were rated by S&P Global Ratings. The rated transactions are performing in line with or better than our initial expectations. After applying our March 2020 COVID-19 adjustment, we expect the 2017 transactions to experience CNLs up to 11.25%, and the 2018 and 2019 transactions to experience CNLs in the 12.25%-14.50% range.
  • In February 2021, we upgraded 15 classes and affirmed five ratings across eight transactions (see "15 Ratings Raised and Five Affirmed On Eight Santander Drive Auto Receivables Trust Transactions," published Feb. 4, 2021).
Performance - SDART

Table 25

Santander Drive Auto Receivables Trust Collateral Performance
Series Current month Pool factor (%) Extension (%) Current CNL(%) Initial expected lifetime CNL(%) Revised/maintained expected lifetime CNL(%)
2017-1 49 11.47 2.38 10.57 15.50-16.25 Up to 11.25(i)
2017-2 46 13.55 2.33 10.45 15.75-16.50 Up to 11.25(i)
2017-3 42 17.99 2.23 9.07 15.75-16.50 Up to 11.25(i)
2018-1(ii) 38 20.37 2.69 8.30 N/A N/A
2018-2(ii) 35 23.08 2.41 7.90 N/A N/A
2018-3 33 26.98 2.70 8.49 15.75-16.50 12.25-13.25(i)
2018-4 31 29.04 2.71 7.29 15.75-16.50 12.25-13.25(i)
2018-5 29 30.95 2.62 7.14 15.75-16.50 12.25-13.25(i)
2019-1 25 39.29 2.50 5.75 15.75-16.50 13.50-14.50(i)
2019-2(ii) 22 48.48 2.52 4.76 N/A N/A
2019-3 19 51.83 2.28 4.22 15.75-16.50 14.00-15.00(i)
2020-1 11 72.11 2.32 2.02 18.25-19.25 N/A
2020-2(ii) 8 77.27 1.74 0.98 N/A N/A
2020-3(ii) 6 85.28 1.70 0.50 N/A N/A
2020-4(ii) 4 92.04 0.66 0.11 N/A N/A
(i)Revised as of February 2021. (ii)Not rated by S&P Global Ratings. CNL--Cumulative net loss. N/A--Not applicable.

Chart 47

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Chart 48

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Chart 49

Santander Drive Auto Receivables Trust Cumulative Net Loss Relative To Pool Factor
Pool factor (%) Cumulative net loss (%)
SDART 2017-1 SDART 2017-2 SDART 2017-3 SDART 2018-1(i) SDART 2018-2(i) SDART 2018-3 SDART 2018-4 SDART 2018-5 SDART 2019-1 SDART 2019-2(i) SDART 2019-3 SDART 2020-1 SDART 2020-2(i) SDART 2020-3(i) SDART 2020-4(i)
1 0.01 98.25 0.01 97.91 0.00 98.32 0.01 97.95 0.01 97.88 0.01 97.64 0.00 97.57 0.00 97.63 0.00 98.15 0.00 98.21 0.00 97.80 0.00 98.23 0.00 97.58 0.00 97.97 0.00 98.28
2 0.04 95.99 0.02 95.83 0.02 96.42 0.02 95.78 0.02 95.55 0.02 95.36 0.02 95.52 0.02 95.58 0.01 95.90 0.01 96.37 0.02 95.73 0.02 96.41 0.02 94.95 0.03 95.64 0.01 96.30
3 0.12 93.77 0.07 93.47 0.08 93.98 0.06 93.02 0.06 93.01 0.07 92.72 0.04 93.04 0.06 93.41 0.03 93.59 0.04 94.23 0.08 93.28 0.04 94.38 0.05 92.20 0.04 93.41 0.03 94.15
4 0.38 90.88 0.22 90.39 0.28 91.21 0.20 89.90 0.16 89.95 0.20 89.73 0.17 90.29 0.23 90.41 0.13 90.67 0.13 91.45 0.23 90.60 0.20 91.87 0.13 89.13 0.10 90.84 0.11 92.04
5 0.64 87.99 0.44 87.27 0.57 88.03 0.44 86.57 0.36 86.33 0.45 86.11 0.34 86.45 0.39 86.78 0.26 87.51 0.29 88.38 0.49 87.54 0.33 89.21 0.24 86.11 0.26 87.86
6 1.02 85.20 0.82 84.15 0.96 84.93 0.74 83.59 0.76 83.18 0.88 82.76 0.64 82.94 0.69 83.10 0.55 84.15 0.63 85.28 0.90 84.42 0.47 86.42 0.42 83.04 0.50 85.28
7 1.59 82.21 1.47 80.32 1.44 81.78 1.17 80.56 1.35 79.78 1.66 79.58 1.23 79.69 1.19 79.83 1.12 80.76 1.09 82.52 1.51 81.27 0.73 83.31 0.68 79.91
8 2.06 79.54 2.07 77.51 1.75 79.06 1.58 77.47 1.85 76.80 2.33 76.53 1.74 76.41 1.66 76.68 1.62 77.74 1.56 79.88 2.03 78.16 1.04 80.39 0.98 77.27
9 2.54 76.77 2.51 74.85 2.06 76.27 2.03 74.65 2.37 73.84 2.78 73.82 2.11 73.44 2.10 73.73 2.09 74.67 2.04 77.08 2.51 75.65 1.35 77.47
10 2.97 73.54 2.97 72.07 2.34 73.60 2.45 71.61 2.83 70.83 3.16 70.89 2.45 70.49 2.49 70.67 2.57 71.75 2.47 74.39 2.82 73.19 1.68 74.69
11 3.43 70.79 3.30 68.87 2.80 70.81 2.90 68.74 3.26 67.79 3.53 68.05 2.81 67.66 2.94 67.54 3.02 68.84 3.08 71.54 3.05 70.62 2.02 72.11
12 3.88 68.11 3.62 65.98 3.26 67.78 3.38 65.83 3.57 64.47 3.81 65.23 3.12 64.66 3.39 64.48 3.46 65.84 3.36 69.15 3.20 68.08
13 4.30 65.49 3.93 63.23 3.69 65.11 3.79 62.98 3.82 61.62 4.16 62.54 3.53 61.57 3.83 61.46 3.88 63.01 3.61 66.88 3.25 65.61
14 4.64 62.64 4.23 60.71 4.12 62.34 4.19 60.31 4.05 58.74 4.52 59.83 3.90 58.92 4.18 58.81 4.30 60.27 3.78 64.86 3.38 63.14
15 4.89 60.13 4.59 58.34 4.52 59.96 4.44 57.63 4.34 56.24 4.93 57.11 4.33 56.21 4.60 56.20 4.73 58.05 3.90 62.65 3.48 60.58
16 5.10 57.81 4.96 55.79 5.01 57.56 4.68 55.14 4.73 53.57 5.35 54.70 4.68 53.91 5.09 53.58 4.90 56.02 3.96 60.59 3.68 58.30
17 5.32 55.56 5.38 53.52 5.40 55.26 4.90 52.69 5.07 51.06 5.78 52.15 5.08 51.72 5.47 51.12 5.06 54.09 4.04 58.45 3.88 55.96
18 5.60 53.37 5.83 51.13 5.71 53.07 5.19 50.46 5.35 48.74 6.13 49.93 5.42 49.50 5.86 48.75 5.09 52.12 4.10 56.18 4.06 53.77
19 5.98 51.02 6.28 48.94 6.00 50.75 5.49 48.16 5.68 46.46 6.49 47.86 5.76 47.34 6.22 46.87 5.13 50.22 4.27 54.23 4.22 51.83
20 6.37 48.92 6.73 46.87 6.22 48.63 5.77 45.90 5.94 44.48 6.78 45.83 6.03 45.37 6.40 45.14 5.19 48.28 4.45 52.21
21 6.74 46.72 7.09 44.77 6.37 46.54 5.99 43.88 6.24 42.63 7.08 43.84 6.40 43.66 6.53 43.47 5.23 46.21 4.66 50.16
22 7.04 44.77 7.36 42.82 6.54 44.68 6.30 41.78 6.51 40.67 7.36 41.98 6.58 42.08 6.60 41.82 5.32 44.39 4.76 48.48
23 7.44 42.85 7.54 40.78 6.76 42.73 6.57 39.89 6.77 38.83 7.72 40.37 6.69 40.49 6.61 40.20 5.46 42.53
24 7.77 40.88 7.71 38.94 6.96 40.76 6.86 38.12 6.81 37.03 7.85 38.94 6.72 38.98 6.67 38.52 5.59 40.80
25 8.08 39.08 7.84 37.24 7.20 38.92 7.07 36.35 7.25 35.57 7.95 37.55 6.73 37.55 6.69 36.76 5.75 39.29
26 8.20 37.25 8.02 35.64 7.43 37.18 7.32 34.70 7.41 34.25 7.97 36.17 6.77 35.99 6.78 35.31
27 8.36 35.61 8.27 33.96 7.68 35.57 7.61 33.12 7.47 32.93 8.00 34.80 6.81 34.41 6.92 33.71
28 8.51 33.97 8.50 32.34 7.98 34.00 7.80 31.79 7.53 31.56 8.03 33.36 6.93 33.02 7.04 32.22
29 8.70 32.40 8.75 30.81 8.13 32.48 7.86 30.61 7.54 30.29 8.07 31.89 7.05 31.60 7.14 30.95
30 8.90 30.80 8.96 29.38 8.32 31.01 7.96 29.36 7.60 28.99 8.10 30.63 7.17 30.20
31 9.06 29.28 9.15 27.99 8.52 29.57 7.97 28.17 7.59 27.68 8.23 29.36 7.29 29.04
32 9.26 27.86 9.37 26.72 8.70 28.41 7.97 27.01 7.67 26.50 8.37 28.09
33 9.45 26.44 9.57 25.46 8.81 27.23 7.99 25.81 7.73 25.30 8.49 26.98
34 9.64 25.13 9.74 24.22 8.89 26.07 7.98 24.57 7.80 24.11
35 9.82 23.91 9.92 23.01 8.87 24.90 8.06 23.47 7.90 23.08
36 9.97 22.64 10.08 22.06 8.87 23.88 8.12 22.40
37 10.07 21.48 10.16 21.12 8.87 22.80 8.21 21.30
38 10.18 20.33 10.20 20.20 8.86 21.78 8.30 20.37
39 10.34 19.43 10.22 19.30 8.91 20.78
40 10.42 18.52 10.21 18.42 8.95 19.80
41 10.46 17.66 10.24 17.56 9.02 18.83
42 10.46 16.81 10.26 16.66 9.07 17.99
43 10.44 16.01 10.29 15.88
44 10.44 15.21 10.32 15.11
45 10.43 14.39 10.40 14.27
46 10.46 13.66 10.45 13.55
47 10.50 12.87
48 10.53 12.12
49 10.57 11.47
50
51
52
53
54
(i)Not rated by S&P Global Ratings. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Table 26

Santander Drive Auto Receivables Trust Collateral Comparison
Series
2017-1 2017-2 2017-3 2018-1(i) 2018-2(i) 2018-3 2018-4 2018-5
Weighted avg. original term (mos.) 71.10 71.00 71.03 70.85 71.29 71.34 71.33 71.47
Weighted avg. remaining term (mos.) 64.19 64.00 66.14 63.76 62.77 66.72 66.69 65.04
Weighted avg. seasoning (mos.) 6.91 7.00 4.89 7.09 8.52 4.62 4.64 6.43
Loans with original terms of 61-72 mos. (%) 79.90 85.02 81.90 80.74 80.81 78.18 78.30 72.94
Loans with original terms of 73-75 mos. (%) 12.32 7.66 10.31 10.34 12.46 15.04 15.13 20.38
Weighted avg. LTV (%) 109.15 107.14 105.30 106.05 106.50 103.67 106.72 107.33
Weighted avg. FICO score 609.0 614.0 608.0 613.0 610.0 609.0 623.0 617.0
Percentage of loans with no FICO score (%) 10.70 12.22 10.24 10.51 12.54 10.35 11.11 9.80
Weighted avg. APR (%) 15.59 15.76 15.87 15.83 15.80 15.71 15.70 15.52
New vehicles (%) 39.40 38.72 39.21 38.82 40.91 55.82 49.75 51.90
Used vehicles (%) 60.60 61.28 60.79 61.18 59.09 44.18 50.25 48.10
Series
2019-1 2019-2(i) 2019-3 2020-1 2020-2(i) 2020-3(i) 2020-4(i)
Weighted avg. original term (mos.) 71.45 71.00 71.14 71.03 70.98 71.02 71.00
Weighted avg. remaining term (mos.) 67.50 69.00 64.88 65.05 65.06 67.65 69.00
Weighted avg. seasoning (mos.) 3.95 2.00 6.26 5.98 5.92 3.37 2.00
Loans with original terms of 61-72 mos. (%) 76.34 76.92 75.88

78.70

76.44 76.68 76.36
Loans with original terms of 73-75 mos. (%) 17.36 16.47 16.18 13.58 15.11 15.29 15.34
Weighted avg. LTV (%) 106.90 106.66 107.75 107.49 106.66 106.80 106.87
Weighted avg. FICO score 615.0 600.0 619.0 604.0 607.0 611.0 612.0
Percentage of loans with no FICO score (%) 9.96 10.77 12.16 12.12 7.55 7.61 7.37
Weighted avg. APR (%) 15.20 15.49 15.48 15.59 14.79 14.85 14.84
New vehicles (%) 48.60 41.00 41.42 38.92 38.69 36.90 36.20
Used vehicles (%) 51.40 59.00 58.58 61.08 61.31 63.10 63.80
(i)Not rated by S&P Global Ratings. LTV--Loan-to-value.
Key facts and observations - DRIVE
  • The collateral characteristics for the recent DRIVE securitizations include more loans with an original term of 73-75 months, higher LTV ratios, and higher FICO scores. Loans with an original term of 73-75 months increased to 10.5% for series 2021-1, compared with 6.8% for series 2017-A, while the weighted average LTV increased to 111.5% for series 2021-1 from 108.2% for series 2017-A.
  • DRIVE's paid-off 2015 and 2016 transactions experienced CNLs in the 18.5%-25.3% range. Losses peaked with series 2016-A, which experienced CNLs of 25.3%. The subsequent paid-off series 2016-B and 2016-C transactions experienced lower CNLs in the 18.5%-21.6% range due to a better collateral mix.
  • SC has 16 outstanding DRIVE transactions issued between 2017 and 2020. These series are mostly performing better than the paid off transactions and in line with or better than our initial expectations. After applying our February 2021 COVID-19 adjustment, we expect the 2017, 2018, 2019, and series 2020-1 transactions to experience CNLs in the 16.25%-18.80%, 15.75%-19.00%, 19.50%-22.50%, and 21.50%-22.50% ranges, respectively. Our ECNL for series 2021-1, which closed in April, is 22.50%-23.50%.
  • In March 2021, we upgraded 29 classes and affirmed eight ratings across 15 transactions (see "29 Ratings Raised, Eight Affirmed On 15 Drive Auto Receivables Trust Transactions," published March 15, 2021).
Performance - DRIVE

Table 27

Drive Auto Receivables Trust Collateral Performance
Series Current month Pool factor (%) Extension (%) Current CNL (%) Initial expected lifetime CNL (%) Revised/maintained expected lifetime CNL (%)(i)
2017-A 50 11.57 - 18.43 27.00-28.00 Up to 18.80
2017-B 48 11.07 - 16.66 27.00-28.00 Up to 16.90
2017-1 45 15.05 2.79 16.05 27.00-28.00 17.25-17.75
2017-2 44 16.09 2.87 15.46 27.00-28.00 16.75-17.25
2017-3 41 17.51 2.77 14.76 27.00-28.00 16.25-16.75
2018-1 37 21.73 3.01 12.31 26.50-27.50 15.75-16.75
2018-2 34 26.62 3.22 12.35 26.50-27.50 17.25-18.25
2018-3 32 28.03 3.38 12.62 26.50-27.50 18.00-19.00
2018-4 30 28.91 3.35 11.64 26.50-27.50 16.75-17.75
2018-5 28 33.59 3.35 10.60 25.00-26.00 16.50-17.50
2019-1 26 35.94 3.20 9.34 24.00-25.00 19.50-20.50
2019-2 24 41.15 3.25 8.70 24.25-25.25 19.50-20.50
2019-3 21 48.72 3.19 7.33 24.25-25.25 21.50-22.50
2019-4 18 54.45 3.34 6.16 24.25-25.25 21.50-22.50
2020-1 14 65.60 3.48 4.58 24.25-25.25 21.50-22.50
2020-2 9 77.66 2.33 1.85 28.00-29.00 N/A
2021-1(ii) - - - - 22.50-23.50 N/A
(i)Revised in March 2021. (ii)Closed in April 2021. CNL--Cumulative net loss. N/A--Not applicable.

Chart 50

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Chart 52

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Table 28

Drive Auto Receivables Trust Collateral Comparison
Series
2017-A 2017-B 2017-1 2017-2 2017-3 2018-1 2018-2 2018-3 2018-4
Weighted avg. original term (mos.) 71.37 71.00 70.00 72.00 71.00 71.00 70.95 71.27 71.40
Weighted avg. remaining term (mos.) 66.98 67.00 67.00 70.00 65.00 67.00 70.26 70.34 67.42
Weighted avg. seasoning (mos.) 4.39 4.00 3.00 2.00 5.00 4.00 0.69 0.93 3.98
Loans with original terms of 61-72 mos. (%) 87.96 81.56 87.80 78.79 82.58 83.77 83.79 80.68 78.27
Loans with original terms of 73-75 mos. (%) 6.78 9.34 0.54 15.55 9.35 8.60 8.36 12.68 15.47
Weighted avg. LTV (%) 108.19 108.51 108.60 106.30 107.88 108.34 107.74 107.96 107.59
Weighted avg. FICO score 551.6 552.0 570.0 568.0 566.0 572.0 574.0 581.0 576.0
Percentage of loans with no FICO score (%) 14.66 14.35 12.93 12.73 10.53 10.86 14.00 15.00 13.00
Weighted avg. APR (%) 18.93 19.06 19.14 19.07 19.05 19.02 18.95 19.11 18.97
New vehicles (%) 34.32 31.40 24.09 39.92 33.64 34.55 34.17 44.31 44.19
Used vehicles (%) 65.68 68.60 75.91 60.08 66.36 65.45 65.83 55.69 55.81
Series
2018-5 2019-1 2019-2 2019-3 2019-4 2020-1 2020-2 2021-1
Weighted avg. original term (mos.) 71.31 71.07 71.13 71.14 71.19 71.07 71.11 71.05
Weighted avg. remaining term (mos.) 69.22 67.32 70.01 69.56 66.23 68.25 67.57 66.53
Weighted avg. seasoning (mos.) 2.09 3.75 1.12 1.58 4.96 2.82 3.54 4.52
Loans with original terms of 61-72 mos. (%) 77.71 80.73 81.12 79.87 82.08 81.96 80.73 81.91
Loans with original terms of 73-75 mos. (%) 15.47 11.74 11.63 12.85 11.07 10.60 11.73 10.25
Weighted avg. LTV (%) 107.90 109.92 109.64 109.39 110.48 111.84 110.55 111.54
Weighted avg. FICO score 577.0 584.1 579.4 587.3 580.7 581.9 582.9 582.2
Percentage of loans with no FICO score (%) 12.90 14.44 12.30 15.09 13.19 15.09 15.27 15.24
Weighted avg. APR (%) 18.95 18.88 18.99 19.01 18.94 18.96 18.98 19.02
New vehicles (%) 42.32 38.88 35.14 36.16 33.95 33.06 29.00 27.69
Used vehicles (%) 57.68 61.12 64.86 63.84 66.05 66.94 71.00 72.31
LTV--Loan to value.

Sierra Auto Receivables Securitization Trust

Credit analysts:

Steve D Martinez, New York, (1) 212-438-2881, steve.martinez@spglobal.com

Issuer profile

Sierra Auto Finance LLC (Sierra) was founded in 2012 as a subprime auto finance company making indirect auto loans. The Dallas-based company ceased originations in 2018 when its warehouse facility with Wells Fargo Bank N.A. went into amortization. However, Sierra continued to be the named servicer until it shifted its servicing activity in March 2019 through a subservicing arrangement to First Investors.

Key facts and observations
Performance

Table 29

Sierra Auto Receivables Securitization Trust Collateral Performance
Series Current month Pool factor (%) Extension (%) Current CNL (%) Initial expected lifetime CNL (%) Revised expected lifetime CNL (%)(i)
2016-1 57 3.38 1.10 24.23 19.00-20.00 Up to 25.75
(i)Revised October 2020. CNL--Cumulative net loss.

Chart 53

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Chart 54

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Table 30

Sierra Auto Receivables Securitization Trust Collateral Comparison
2016-1
Weighted avg. original term (mos.) 63.15
Weighted avg. remaining term (mos.) 51.50
Weighted avg. seasoning (mos.) 11.65
Loans with original terms of 61-72 mos. (%) 51.30
Weighted avg. LTV (%) 112.88
Weighted avg. FICO score 537.0
Percentage of loans with no FICO score (%) 15.60
Weighted avg. APR (%) 18.82
New vehicles (%) 3.03
Used vehicles (%) 96.97
LTV--Loan-to-value.

Tidewater Auto Receivables Trust

Credit analysts:

Timothy J Moran, CFA, FRM, (212) 438-2440; timothy.moran@spglobal.com

Zarif Ahmed, New York, (1) 212-438-6690; zarif.ahmed@spglobal.com

Issuer profile

Tidewater Finance Co. (Tidewater), headquartered in Virginia Beach, Va., was founded in 1992 by the Sandler Family, which holds 90% of the company. Nathan Benson, the CEO, owns the remaining 10%. The company targets consumers who have recently entered or have been discharged from Chapter 7 bankruptcy. Until April 28, 2020, Tidewater had two main business lines: Tidewater Motor Credit and Tidewater Credit Services (TCS). It sold TCS, which originated installment and revolving contracts relating to purchases of items, such as furniture, floor covering, and other home improvements, to Genesis Credit in April 2020. Tidewater Motor Credit (TMC), the remaining business, originates auto loans to finance auto purchases from franchised and independent automobile dealers.

Key facts and observations
  • Tidewater's serviced portfolio increased 7.37% year over year to approximately $230.20 million as of Dec. 31, 2019. Tidewater was profitable through the last two recessions (2001 and 2007-2009) and up through 2017. In 2018, according to management, the company incurred net losses due to an increase in year-end loan loss allowances for the Tidewater Credit Services' portfolio. Unaudited financial statements as of Dec. 31, 2020, show that the company was profitable in 2020.
  • The more recent pools consist of a larger percentage of bankruptcy loans and loans with an original term of 67-72 months. Bankruptcy loans comprised 86.6% of the series 2020-A pool, compared with 66.9% for series 2018-A, while loans with an original term of 67-72 months increased to 85.1% from 75.2%. Static pool data indicate that bankruptcy collateral typically exhibits lower losses than non-bankruptcy collateral.
  • Tidewater has two transactions outstanding (series 2018-A and 2020-A), and both are performing in line with our initial expectations and are expected to experience CNLs in the 12.50%-13.50% range.
  • In July 2019, we upgraded three classes and affirmed two ratings on one transaction (see "Two Ratings Raised, Three Affirmed On Tidewater Auto Receivables Trust 2018-A," published July 12, 2019).
Performance

Table 31

Tidewater Auto Receivables Trust Collateral Performance
Series Current month Pool factor (%) Extension (%) Current CNL (%) Initial expected lifetime CNL (%) Revised/maintained expected lifetime CNL (%)
2018-A 35 24.94 - 9.36 12.50-13.00 12.50-13.50(i)
2020-A 12 72.53 - 1.44 12.50-13.00 N/A
(i)Revised in February 2020. CNL--Cumulative net loss. N/A--Not applicable.

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Table 32

Tidewater Auto Receivables Trust Collateral Comparison
Series 2018-A Series 2020-A
Weighted avg. original term (mos.) 69.9 70.6
Weighted avg. remaining term (mos.) 58.8 61.1
Weighted avg. seasoning (mos.) 11.1 9.5
Loans with original terms of 61-72 mos. (%) 93.0 94.5
Weighted avg. APR (%) 17.7 18.0
New vehicles (%) 5.5 4.6
Used vehicles (%) 94.6 95.5

United Auto Credit Securitization Trust

Credit analysts:

Zarif Ahmed, New York, (1) 212-438-6690; zarif.ahmed@spglobal.com

Peter W Chang, New York, (1) 212-438-1505; peter.chang@spglobal.com

Issuer profile

United Auto Credit Corp. (UACC) was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, Calif. In 2008, a new management team was brought in, and it began centralizing the company's branch structure. UACC ceased originating loans from August 2008 through June 2009, but it continued to service them while centralizing its operations. In February 2011, the company's largest shareholder (one of its founders) took the company private. UACC's parent company is now owned by Pine Brook Road Partners, a fund managed by Guillermo Bron, and members of management.

UACC provides retail auto financing to primarily independent dealerships, as well as some manufacturer-franchised dealerships. The company designed its lending programs primarily to serve consumers who have FICO scores ranging from 480 to 630. The financed vehicles, on average, are approximately seven to eight years old, have over 111,500 miles, and financed for approximately $11,600 over a 48-month term. As of December 2020, the average APR is approximately 22.50%.

Key facts and observations
  • UACC's serviced portfolio decreased 5.60% year over year to approximately $551.6 million as of Dec. 31, 2020.
  • Since 2015, UACC has been tightening its credit underwriting. The LTV ratio decreased to approximately 115% for series 2021-1 from a high of 120% for series 2015-1, while the weighted average FICO score has steadily increased to 588 for series 2021-1 from 552 for series 2015-1. However, loans with an original term of 61-66 months have increased to approximately 19% of the series 2021-1 pool from 0% for series 2015-1 and earlier transactions. Still, despite the increase in longer-term loans, the transactions have a relatively short weighted average life compared with those from other subprime issuers, and they have typically been called within three years.
  • UACC has three transactions outstanding (series 2019-1, 2020-1, and 2021-1). In July 2020, we revised and increased our ECNL on the series 2019-1 transaction to 22.25%-23.25% using our March 2020 COVID-19 adjustment. Since then, we have observed that losses have been trending lower.
  • In July 2020, we upgraded seven classes and affirmed three ratings across two transactions (see, "Twenty-Seven Ratings From 20 U.S. Subprime Auto ABS Transactions Remain On CreditWatch Negative," published Aug. 10, 2020).
Performance

Table 33

United Auto Credit Securitization Trust Collateral Performance
Series Current month Pool factor (%) Extension (%) Current CNL (%) Initial expected lifetime CNL (%) Revised expected lifetime CNL (%)
2019-1 22 32.7 3.0 15.6 19.50-20.50 22.25-23.25(i)
2020-1 9 68.9 3.5 5.1 22.25-23.25 N/A
2021-1(ii) - - - - 21.25-22.25 N/A
(i)Revised in July 2020. (ii)Closed in March CNL--Cumulative net loss. N/A--Not applicable.

Chart 59

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Table 34

United Auto Credit Securitization Trust Collateral Comparison
Series
2019-1 2020-1 2021-1
Weighted avg. original term (mos.) 44.82 46.71 51.34
Weighted avg. remaining term (mos.) 40.31 41.15 44.87
Weighted avg. seasoning (mos.) 4.51 5.57 6.47
Loans with original terms of 61-72 mos. (%)(i) 8.68 11.51 18.94
Weighted avg. LTV (%) 112.05 112.33 114.77
Weighted avg. FICO score 577.0 580.0 588.0
Percentage of loans with no FICO score (%) 19.89 19.65 14.31
Weighted avg. APR (%) 22.96 22.63 22.28
New vehicles (%) 0.08 0.09 0.14
Used vehicles (%) 99.92 99.91 99.86
(i)The maximumn term is 60 months. LTV--Loan-to-value.

Westlake Automobile Receivables Trust

Credit analysts:

Jenna Cilento, New York, (1) 212-438-1533; jenna.cilento@spglobal.com

Dan Daley, New York, (1) 212-438-0020; dan.daley@spglobal.com

Issuer profile

Westlake was founded in 1978 by Don Hankey and incorporated in California in 1988 as a subchapter S corporation. Westlake is primarily owned by Mr. Hankey (the CEO) and his family, certain executives, and Marubeni Corp. (which owns 24.0%). Westlake provides retail financing to a network of more than 19,000 independent and franchised dealerships across 50 states. While the company has historically focused on subprime lending, it has expanded into full-spectrum indirect lending, direct lending, and portfolio acquisitions. In 2018, Westlake formed its wholly owned third-party servicing business, Westlake Portfolio Management (WPM). WPM currently services over $300 million auto receivables for third parties. WPS utilizes Westlake's technology and infrastructure, but it has its own dedicated servicing personnel.

Key facts and observations
  • Westlake's portfolio increased 21% year over year to approximately $9.1 billion as of Jan. 31, 2021, and it reported pre-tax income of $775 million for 2020.
  • The company's more recent transactions have included a higher percentage in franchise loans (and fewer loans from independent dealers). Series 2021-1 consisted of approximately 43% in franchise loans, compared with 34% for series 2018-1. The uptick in franchise loans has caused an increase in longer-term loans (those with original terms greater than 60 months) and higher LTV ratios, which is mitigated by a better-quality vehicle with lower mileage. Based on data provided by Westlake, its franchise loans typically perform better than independent loans.
  • Westlake has 10 transactions outstanding from 2018 through 2021, and they are performing in line with or better than our initial or revised expectations. After applying our COVID-19 adjustment, we expect the series 2018-1 through 2021-1 transactions to experience CNLs in the 12.00%-14.50% range.
  • In March 2020, we upgraded 10 classes and affirmed three ratings across three transactions (see "Ten Ratings Raised, Four Affirmed On Three Westlake Automobile Receivables Trust Transactions," published on March 12, 2020). In November, we upgraded 12 classes and affirmed 16 across five transactions and removed on two of the ratings from CreditWatch negative (see "12 Ratings Raised, 16 Affirmed On Five Westlake Automobile Receivables Trust Transactions," published Nov. 3, 2020).
Performance

Table 35

Westlake Automobile Receivables Trust Collateral Performance
Series Current month Pool factor (%) Extension (%) Current CNL (%) Initial expected lifetime CNL (%) Revised expected lifetime CNL (%)
2018-1 38.0 14.5 6.8 9.7 13.00-13.50 12.00-12.50(i)
2018-2 34.0 21.6 7.2 9.9 13.00-13.50 13.00-13.50(ii)
2018-3 31.0 28.7 6.5 9.0 13.00-13.50 13.00-13.50(ii)
2019-1 25.0 37.1 6.2 7.2 13.00-13.50 12.50-13.00(i)
2019-2 21.0 47.2 5.7 6.0 13.00-13.50 13.75-14.25(ii)
2019-3 17.0 55.7 5.0 4.6 13.00-13.50 13.75-14.25(ii)
2020-1 12.0 68.5 3.5 2.7 13.00-13.50 13.75-14.25(ii)
2020-2 9.0 74.4 1.8 1.5 14.75-15.25 N/A
2020-3 5.0 87.7 1.6 0.6 14.75-15.25 N/A
2021-1(iii) - - - - 13.50-14.00 N/A
(i)Revised in March 2020. (ii)Revised in November 2020. (iii)Closed in March 2021. CNL--Cumulative net loss. N/A--Not applicable.

Chart 62

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Table 36

Westlake Automobile Receivables Trust Collateral Comparison
Series
2018-1 2018-2 2018-3 2019-1 2019-2 2019-3 2020-1 2020-2 2020-3 2021-1
Weighted avg. original term (mos.) 54.93 57.40 58.87 58.77 60.1 59.58 60.94 58.40 60.41 61.59
Weighted avg. remaining term (mos.) 50.88 54.25 56.97 54.90 56.8 56.46 56.88 53.16 56.53 57.17
Weighted avg. seasoning (mos.) 4.04 3.15 2.07 3.87 3.3 3.12 4.06 5.24 3.89 4.42
Loans with original terms of 49-60 mos. (%) 20.95 21.13 21.86 22.60 21.02 21.45 21.08 23.53 22.52 24.79
Loans with original terms of 61-72 mos. (%) 30.55 40.01 44.68 43.86 48.62 47.52 52.43 41.85 49.4 52.67
Weighted avg. LTV (%) 109.83 108.39 108.77 110.94 111.44 113.71 113.38 112.96 111.80 113.94
Weighted avg. credit bureau score 602.0 601.0 600.0 602.0 600.0 602.0 600.0 610.0 603.0 600.0
Percentage of loans with no FICO score (%) 27.44 27.56 32.03 33.67 22.3 21.75 22 24.4 27.35 23.63
Weighted avg. APR (%) 19.36 19.26 19.33 19.00 19.13 19.92 20.1 19.44 19.1 19.24
New vehicles (%) 5.58 5.84 7.06 5.97 6.08 6.13 6.37 4.27 4.66 3.58
Used vehicles (%) 94.42 94.16 92.94 94.03 93.92 93.87 93.63 95.73 95.34 96.42
LTV--Loan-to-value.

World Omni Select Auto Trust

Credit analysts:

Timothy J Moran, CFA, FRM, (1) 212-438-2440; timothy.moran@spglobal.com

Cara McGonigle, New York, (1) 212-438-1792; cara.mcgonigle@spglobal.com

Issuer profile

World Omni Select Auto Trust (World Omni) is a Florida corporation and a wholly owned subsidiary of JM Family Enterprises Inc. (JMFE), a Delaware corporation. JMFE provides a full range of automotive-related distribution and financial services, through its subsidiaries, to Toyota dealerships in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Alabama (the five-state area). It also provides financial services to other dealerships throughout the U.S.

World Omni provides retail installment financing and lease contract financing to retail customers of Toyota automotive dealers within the five-state area. The company also provides wholesale floorplan financing and capital and mortgage loans to some dealers that obtain their vehicles from its affiliate Southeast Toyota Distributors LLC, as well as to a limited number of other automotive dealers. World Omni also services automobile-related receivables for its own and third-party accounts.

The World Omni Select Auto Trust (WOSAT) platform consists of new and used Toyota (those with FICO scores of less than 650) and non-Toyota automobiles and light-duty trucks purchased by primarily nonprime or subprime borrowers. World Omni has originated this type of collateral since 2000 and had historically included up to 20% in its prime retail auto ABS platform, World Omni Auto Receivables Trust (WOART). Beginning with WOART 2018-A, World Omni has excluded this collateral (specifically receivables secured by new and used Toyota automobiles with FICO scores of 1-649 and used non-Toyota vehicles with any or no FICO score) from the WOART shelf.

Key facts and observations
  • World Omni's serviced retail installment sale contracts portfolio increased 4.84% year over year to approximately $11.96 billion as of Dec. 31, 2020. The portfolio represents World Omni's total auto loan serviced portfolio, including WOSAT collateral.
  • The collateral characteristics have generally improved for the most recent transaction, series 2020-A. The weighted average FICO score increased to 641, compared with 634 and 619 for series 2019-A and 2018-1, respectively. Seasoning also increased to approximately 7.2 months, compared with 5.6 months and 4.8 months for series 2019-A and 2018-1, respectively. However, longer-term loans have increased as a percentage of the pool. Loans with an original term of 61-78 months comprised approximately 97.3% of the series 2020-A pool, by balance, compared with 96.0% and 94.7% for series 2019-A and 2018-1, respectively. Of this amount, loans with an original term of 76-78 months represented 14.9% of series 2020-A pool, compared with 10.0% and 0.0% for series 2019-A and 2018-1, respectively.
  • World Omni has three WOSAT transactions outstanding (series 2018-1, 2019-A, and 2020-A), and they are performing in line with or better than our initial expectations. After applying our February 2021 COVID-19 adjustment, we expect the series 2018-1, 2019-A, and 2020-A transactions to experience CNLs in the 6.25%-8.65% range.
  • In March 2021, we upgraded seven classes and affirmed three ratings across two transactions (see "Seven Ratings Raised And Three Affirmed On Two World Omni Select Auto Trust Transactions," published March 30, 2021).
Performance

Table 37

World Omni Select Auto Trust Collateral Performance
Series Current month Pool factor (%) Extension (%) Current CNL (%) Initial expected lifetime CNL (%) Revised expected lifetime CNL (%)
2018-1 28 31.74 1.07 4.47 8.75-9.25 6.25-6.75(i)
2019-A 17 52.10 1.24 2.66 6.75-7.25 6.25-6.75(i)
2020-A 6 80.57 1.17 0.76 8.15-8.65 N/A
(i)Revised March 2021. CNL--Cumulative net loss. N/A--Not applicable.

Chart 65

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Chart 67

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Table 38

World Omni Select Auto Trust Collateral Comparison
Series
2018-1 2019-A 2020-A
Weighted avg. original term (mos.) 72.62 73.45 74.07
Weighted avg. remaining term (mos.) 67.79 67.83 66.82
Weighted avg. seasoning (mos.) 4.83 5.62 7.25
Loans with original terms of 61-72 mos. (%) 44.67 35.33 28.67
Loans with original terms of 73-plus mos. (%) 49.98 70.69 68.59
Weighted avg. LTV (%) 105.47 105.41 107.06
Weighted avg. FICO score 618.7 634.4 640.7
Percentage of loans with no FICO score (%) 0.39 0.70 0.33
Weighted avg. APR (%) 9.19 9.05 8.56
New vehicles (%) 78.82 79.60 81.53
Used vehicles (%) 21.18 20.40 18.47
LTV--Loan-to-value.

S&P Global Ratings believes there remains high, albeit moderating, uncertainty about the evolution of the coronavirus pandemic and its economic effects. Vaccine production is ramping up and rollouts are gathering pace around the world. Widespread immunization, which will help pave the way for a return to more normal levels of social and economic activity, looks to be achievable by most developed economies by the end of the third quarter. However, some emerging markets may only be able to achieve widespread immunization by year-end or later. We use these assumptions about vaccine timing in assessing the economic and credit implications associated with the pandemic (see our research here: www.spglobal.com/ratings). As the situation evolves, we will update our assumptions and estimates accordingly.

Editor: Georgia Jones

This report does not constitute a rating action.

Primary Credit Analyst:Jenna Cilento, New York + 1 (212) 438 1533;
jenna.cilento@spglobal.com
Secondary Contacts:Amy S Martin, New York + 1 (212) 438 2538;
amy.martin@spglobal.com
Kenneth D Martens, New York + 1 (212) 438 7327;
kenneth.martens@spglobal.com
Research Contributors:Aakansha Khandelwal, CRISIL Global Analytical Center, an S&P Global Ratings affiliate, Mumbai
Reema Kakkar, CRISIL Global Analytical Center, an S&P affiliate, Mumbai
Radhika Wadhi, CRISIL Global Analytical Center, an S&P Global Ratings affiliate, Mumbai

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