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SF Credit Brief: SF New Issuance Was $59 Billion In April 2021, $216 Billion YTD, And Up 51% Year Over Year

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SF Credit Brief: SF New Issuance Was $59 Billion In April 2021, $216 Billion YTD, And Up 51% Year Over Year

April 2021 U.S. structured finance new issuance across the four major sectors--asset-backed securities, commercial mortgage-backed securities, collateralized loan obligation, residential mortgage-backed securities (ABS, CMBS, CLO, RMBS)--was $59 billion, bringing the year-to-date (YTD) total to $216 billion, up 51% year over year (y/y) from $143 billion for the same period a year ago. However, the y/y comparison continues to be mixed by sector, although all are ahead of last year's pace. After trailing through the first quarter, CMBS is now up 16%. Meanwhile, ABS is up 46%; RMBS is 27% above last year's corresponding period; and CLOs have more than doubled last year's YTD figure (+145%). In regards to CLOs, we're increasing our new issue CLO forecast for the full-year to $120 billion from $100 billion, as conditions remain generally favorable for new CLO formation. Of note, CLO refinancings (refis) and resets, which we do not count in the new issue total, are already up to approximately $95 billion, versus $25 billion during the comparable year ago period. Finally, we note that the sector and overall y/y comparisons may look somewhat skewed over the next few months, as second-quarter 2020 posted just $76 billion total in new issuance.

April Issuance By Major Sector

ABS issuance was $22 billion in April. Auto loan and lease ABS totaled $10 billion during the month, esoteric/nontraditional was $5 billion, commercial was $5 billion, personal loans was $2 billion, and student loans was $1 billion (slight difference due to rounding). CLO new issuance activity was $13 billion; and refi/resets, in particular, totaled nearly $25 billion. To put the YTD refi/reset volume of $95 billion in perspective, the annual record is $167 billion in 2017. Private-label CMBS issuance (ex-commercial real estate [CRE] CLOs) was $10 billion in April, including three conduits and 10 single-borrower deals. RMBS issuance totaled some $13 billion in April, which included roughly $1 billion in non-qualified mortgage (QM), approximately $5 billion in prime (including prime jumbo) offerings, over $2 billion in credit risk transfer (CRT), over $2 billion in reperforming/nonperforming loan (RPL/NPL), and a few billion from other types of collateral, including single-family rental (SFR), mortgage insurance (MI) risk transfer, warehouse finance, investor loans etc.

Table 1 and chart 1 show a breakdown of U.S. structured finance issuance through April 30, 2021.

Table 1

U.S. Structured Finance Issuance YTD
(Bil. $)
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020 YTD 2021 YTD 2021 F
ABS 183 191 229 239 244 193 62 91 220
CMBS 95 69 88 77 96 53 22 25 70
CLO 98 72 118 129 118 93 21 52 120
RMBS 54 34 70 95 124 114 37 47 130
Total U.S. new issue 430 366 505 540 582 453 143 216 540
CLO reset/refi(i) 10 39 167 156 43 33 25 95 N/A
CRE CLOs(i) 5 3 8 14 18 8 3 12 N/A
(i)Not included in new issue total. Note: figures were rounded after calculations, and may be revised periodically based on new information. Sources: S&P Global Ratings, LCD/S&P Global Market Intelligence, Bloomberg, Intex, Asset-Backed Alert, and Commercial Mortgage Alert. YTD--Year to date. F--Forecast. ABS--Asset-backed securities. CMBS--Ccommercial mortgage-backed securities. CRE--Commercial real estate. CLO--Collateralized loan obligation. RMBS--Residential mortgage-backed securities. N/A--Not applicable.

Chart 1

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This report does not constitute a rating action.

Primary Contact:Brenden J Kugle, Centennial + 1 (303) 721 4619;
brenden.kugle@spglobal.com
Secondary Contact:James M Manzi, CFA, Washington D.C. + 1 (202) 383 2028;
james.manzi@spglobal.com

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