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Default, Transition, and Recovery: 2020 Annual Sovereign Default And Rating Transition Study

The spread of COVID-19 and the collapse of oil prices created challenging credit conditions for sovereigns rated by S&P Global Ratings in 2020. The number of sovereign defaults climbed to a high of seven, while downgrades rose to their highest tally since 2011 and outnumbered upgrades by a ratio of 10 to 1.

With the global economy falling into a sudden recession in the first half of 2020, sovereigns that entered the year with weaker ratings were most exposed. All of the defaults were from sovereigns rated 'B' or lower, and most downgrades were of speculative-grade sovereigns (rated 'BB+' or lower) from the emerging and frontier markets.

In 2021, sovereign ratings may continue to face pressure amid expected massive fiscal and monetary stimulus that will leave a substantial debt overhang for several years to come.

Sovereign Defaults Reached A High In 2020

There were seven sovereign defaults in 2020, marking the highest annual tally on record. Before 2020, the high for defaults was six, in 2017. The defaulters in 2020 entered the year with already weakened credit metrics--none were rated above 'B'--and had little room to absorb the impact of the pandemic-induced recession.

Chart 1

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Suriname was the highest-rated sovereign to default in 2020, with a 'B' long-term foreign currency rating at the start of the year. Two of the defaulters (Ecuador and Belize) were rated 'B-' as of the beginning of 2020, and three (Zambia, Lebanon, and Argentina) were rated in the lowest rating category, 'CCC'/'CC'.

All of the defaults in 2020 were from emerging and frontier market sovereigns. By region, Latin America had the most defaults, with five, from Argentina, Belize, Ecuador, and Suriname (which defaulted twice). The other two defaulters, Lebanon and Zambia, were from the Middle East and Africa region.

All but one of these sovereign defaults resulted to some extent from the unprecedented credit challenges of COVID-19 and the oil price collapse. Both Ecuador and Suriname grappled with economic shocks as falling oil prices hit exports. This led Ecuador to delay payment on a number of global bonds in April after reaching agreements with a majority of its respective bondholders. Suriname defaulted twice in 2020: In July it began and completed a distressed debt exchange, and by end-October, the new government proposed a standstill on foreign currency debt service payments.

Meanwhile, Belize faced a sharp economic contraction from the COVID-19 pandemic, and as its tourism industry reeled, the government reached an agreement with bondholders in August to amend the terms on its 2034 bond.

Zambia's access to liquidity and external financing became impaired as investors curtailed their exposure to credit risk in response to the pandemic, and the Zambian government suspended debt service payments to external commercial creditors in October.

In Argentina, the pandemic heightened the fiscal strain of weaker revenue, higher expenditure, and unfavorable conditions in the external financing markets. The sovereign missed payments of local-law U.S. dollar-denominated bonds in April and of foreign-law foreign currency bonds in June.

Only Lebanon's default was unrelated to COVID-19, with the fiscal, external, and political pressures that led to the eventual default preceding COVID-19's impact on the country. Lebanon confirmed its first case of COVID-19 on Feb. 21, 2020, and in an unrelated rating action on the same day, we lowered our long-term foreign currency rating on the country to 'CC' because a distressed exchange or unilateral default was virtually certain.

Charts 2 through 7 show the rating histories of these sovereigns that defaulted in 2020.

Chart 2

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Chart 3

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Chart 4

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Chart 5

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Chart 6

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Chart 7

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Rating Movement In 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic and oil price collapse accounted for most of the sovereign downgrades in 2020. The count of negative rating actions (downgrades and defaults) rose to its highest level since 2011, during the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. However, unlike in 2011, the majority of downgrades in 2020 were of speculative-grade issuers (see chart 8).

Emerging and frontier markets were hardest hit, particularly oil exporters. The Middle East and Africa experienced the most downgrades (including defaults), with 13, followed by Latin America with 11.

Chart 8

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Nearly 80% of sovereign credit ratings were unchanged in 2020. Of the ratings that changed, 14.9% were lowered, 4.48% defaulted, and 1.49% were raised. Because so few sovereigns were upgraded during this challenging year, the ratio of downgrades to upgrades reached a high of 10 to 1 in 2020 (see table 1).

Table 1

Summary Of Sovereign Net Annual Foreign Currency Rating Changes
(%)
Year Issuer count as of Jan. 1 Upgrades Downgrades* Defaults Withdrawn ratings Changed ratings Unchanged ratings Downgrade/upgrade ratio
2000 82 10.98 6.10 1.22 0.00 18.29 81.71 0.56
2001 87 18.39 10.34 1.15 0.00 29.89 70.11 0.56
2002 89 15.73 10.11 1.12 0.00 26.97 73.03 0.64
2003 92 18.48 5.43 2.17 0.00 26.09 73.91 0.29
2004 97 27.84 6.19 1.03 0.00 35.05 64.95 0.22
2005 105 16.19 2.86 1.90 0.00 20.95 79.05 0.18
2006 109 18.35 3.67 0.92 0.00 22.94 77.06 0.20
2007 112 20.54 2.68 0.00 0.00 23.21 76.79 0.13
2008 117 7.69 12.82 1.71 0.85 23.08 76.92 1.67
2009 121 1.65 15.70 0.00 0.83 18.18 81.82 9.50
2010 123 16.26 10.57 0.81 0.00 27.64 72.36 0.65
2011 126 15.08 20.63 0.00 0.79 36.51 63.49 1.37
2012 128 7.81 15.63 2.34 0.00 25.78 74.22 2.00
2013 127 4.72 12.60 2.36 2.36 22.05 77.95 2.67
2014 127 8.66 14.17 0.79 1.57 25.20 74.80 1.64
2015 128 11.72 15.63 0.78 0.00 28.13 71.88 1.33
2016 130 6.92 16.92 1.54 1.54 26.92 73.08 2.44
2017 130 10.00 13.08 3.85 0.00 26.92 73.08 1.31
2018 129 10.85 6.98 0.78 0.00 18.60 81.40 0.64
2019 130 13.85 3.85 0.77 0.00 18.46 81.54 0.28
2020 134 1.49 14.93 4.48 0.00 20.90 79.10 10.00
Weighted average 11.14 10.01 1.23 0.32 22.70 77.30 1.67
Median 7.75 6.56 0.00 0.00 18.74 81.26 0.65
Standard deviation 7.80 6.21 1.14 0.50 10.95 10.95 2.36
Minimum 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 63.49 0.09
Maximum 27.84 23.08 4.48 2.36 36.51 100.00 10.00
Note: This table compares the net change in ratings from the first to the last day of each year. All intermediate ratings are disregarded. *Excludes downgrades to 'SD', shown separately in the defaults column. Descriptive statistics at the bottom of the table based on data from 1975-2020. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

To varying degrees, COVID-19 and plummeting oil prices led to most of the sovereign downgrades in 2020 by contributing to lower economic growth expectations, higher debt obligations, and reduced external financing. Of the 26 sovereigns that we downgraded during the year, the largest number, seven, were downgraded due to the pressures that COVID-19 placed on the countries' finances. These downgrades included both the Bahamas and Sri Lanka, where COVID-19's impact on tourism strained already narrow fiscal flexibility. Meanwhile, the drop in oil prices pressured the fiscal revenue and the availability of external financing for Nigeria and Congo-Brazzaville.

The downgrades of six sovereigns resulted from increased debt burdens. These downgrades included Oman and Sharjah, which were each downgraded by two notches as they faced higher net debt levels and interest burdens because of the collapse in oil prices.

We downgraded five sovereigns in response to the pressures of the global economy slipping into a sudden recession.

Two sovereigns were downgraded by one notch due to reduced access to liquidity and external financing in March and April. At the time, investors were rapidly paring down exposure to riskier investments before multiple interventions by central banks helped restore liquidity to global credit markets.

Six of the sovereigns downgraded in 2020 defaulted. COVID-19 or oil prices factored in all these defaults, with the exception of Lebanon's.

In 2020, we observed 17 sovereign rating transitions of one notch and six rating transitions of two notches. The remaining five rating transitions were each downgrades of four to seven notches to 'SD' (selective default). Table 2 displays the magnitude of the sovereign rating changes in 2020.

Table 2

Main Causes Of Sovereign Rating Changes (2020)
Number of notches Debt Default Finances Economy Liquidity
(7) Suriname*§
(6) Ecuador*§, Belize*
(5) Zambia*
(4) Lebanon
(2) Sharjah*§, Oman*§ Argentina* Bahamas*, Sri Lanka* Curacao*
(1) Ghana*, Papua New Guinea*§, Panama*, Trinidad and Tobago§ Bolivia*§, Botswana*,Congo-Brazzaville*§, Costa Rica*, Nigeria*§, Kuwait*§, Mexico*§, Ras Al Khaimah*§, South Africa* Angola§, Cameroon*§
1 Latvia Lithuania
Note: Negative numbers signify downgrades. *Denotes sovereign ratings that were affected by COVID-19. §Denotes sovereign rating changes due to oil price volatility. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

To measure rating transitions over a one-year horizon, we use a static pool approach to compare the issuer credit ratings as of the beginning of the year with those as of year-end. This approach measures the net rating migration for an issuer during the course of the year, rather than the number of times a rating changed. For example, a rating that we lowered twice in 2020 would be counted as one issuer downgrade, rather than as two individual downgrades.

Large rating transitions are not common among sovereigns. Most downgrades are typically of one notch or occasionally two notches. Sovereign upgrades within a calendar year seldom exceed one notch.

In 2020, the average downgrade was 1.25 notches, which was slightly higher than the 1.20-notch average in 2019. The average upgrade in 2020 was of 1.00 notch, unchanged from 2019 (see chart 9).

Chart 9

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Since 1975, 78% of sovereign rating actions have been rating movements of one notch (see chart 10). The majority of all sovereign rating actions and one-notch sovereign rating actions have been upgrades. However, most rating actions of more than one notch have been downgrades, and so the aggregate rating movement--as measured by the cumulative number of notches changed--has been decidedly negative.

Many of the more pronounced, multinotch downgrades have been of sovereigns that defaulted from a low rating category. The largest multinotch downgrade in 2020 was of Suriname, which we downgraded by seven notches during the year, to 'SD', from 'B' at the start of 2020. We downgraded Belize and Ecuador by six notches each during the year, and we downgraded Zambia by five notches.

Chart 10

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The largest rating change ever in a single year was a series of four downgrades of the Republic of Korea (South Korea) in 1997, which brought the sovereign credit rating to 'B+' from 'AA-', a 10-notch drop. This was during the Asian financial crisis, and South Korea was one of the nations hardest hit at the time. Since then, we've raised our rating on South Korea nine times, and the long-term sovereign credit rating is currently 'AA'.

Gini Ratios And Ratings Performance

S&P Global Ratings' credit ratings continue to serve as effective indicators of relative default risk. To measure ratings performance, we use the Gini ratio, which is a measure of the rank-ordering power of ratings over a given time horizon, from one through seven years. The Gini ratio shows the ratio of actual rank-ordering performance to a theoretically perfect rank ordering. A Gini coefficient ranges from 0 to 1, with higher values indicating a stronger relationship between lower rating categories and higher default rates. (For details on the Gini methodology, see Appendix 1.)

We found that there is a strong inverse relationship between higher ratings and observed defaults. In other words, sovereigns that have defaulted were generally rated at the lower end of our ratings spectrum prior to doing so.

Despite the unprecedented economic, social, and financial market turmoil in 2020, sovereign ratings performance held in line with the long-term average, with a one-year Gini ratio of 91.5% for foreign currency ratings. This was slightly higher than the average annual one-year foreign currency Gini ratio of 89.5% and just below the one-year weighted average Gini ratio of 93.08%. Local currency ratings showed even stronger performance in 2020, with a one-year Gini ratio of 91.7%, above both the annual average and weighted average Gini ratios of 88.58% and 86.84%, respectively (see table 3).

Table 3

Global Average Gini Coefficients For Sovereign Ratings
--Time horizon--
(%) One-year Three-year Five-year 10-year
Foreign currency
Weighted average 93.08 81.21 75.12 69.34
Average 89.53 80.43 73.48 68.27
Standard deviation 15.24 12.36 12.88 10.55
Local currency
Weighted average 86.84 73.00 66.65 57.20
Average 88.58 76.85 70.50 66.12
Standard deviation 11.95 17.19 19.26 20.89
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Ratings Distribution

Rated sovereigns have recorded at least one default annually for nine consecutive years, and the recent increase in defaults in part reflects the growing share of speculative-grade ratings among sovereign ratings. From 2010 to 2020, sovereign defaults averaged 2.6 per year, up from an average of 1.3 per year in 1999-2009. Over this period, the number of speculative-grade sovereigns grew to a peak of 62 in 2016 from 30 in 1999.

Alongside the growth in speculative-grade ratings, the number of sovereigns rated at the lowest rating levels has also grown. In 2020, the number of sovereigns rated 'CCC+' or lower increased to seven, surpassing its prior high of five from 2019. All seven of these were emerging and frontier market sovereigns. This proportion of sovereigns rated in the highest-risk rating categories suggests defaults could remain elevated in the coming years as governments seek to manage the post-COVID-19 recovery.

Over the longer term, the number of sovereigns we rate has grown with an increasing number of governments raising external financing through international bond markets. We've assigned foreign currency ratings to 145 sovereigns since 1975. Much of the expansion in the number of rated sovereigns occurred between 1988 and 2011, when the tally grew by 103. Given the relatively small and static number of nations in the world, however, another such increase is unlikely. For that reason, the distribution of sovereign ratings will change almost exclusively with the movement of existing ratings.

As the number of rated sovereigns has grown, so too has the share of speculative-grade ratings. The distribution of sovereign ratings has been trending lower since the late 1980s as countries with smaller and less diversified economies have sought credit ratings. At the end of 1989, just 3% of sovereign foreign currency ratings were speculative-grade, but by the end of 2020, 44% were speculative-grade (see chart 11).

Chart 11

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Because a sovereign has flexibility in servicing its local currency debt based on the unique powers it enjoys within its own borders, particularly in its control of domestic financial and monetary systems, S&P Global Ratings assigns both foreign currency and local currency ratings to sovereigns. This study focuses on foreign currency ratings unless otherwise noted.

As of year-end 2020, 18 local currency sovereign credit ratings were higher than the corresponding foreign currency credit ratings. For example, New Zealand is among the sovereigns with a long-term local currency rating ('AA+') above the long-term foreign currency rating ('AA' since 2011) (see table 4).

Additionally, when a foreign currency sovereign credit rating is in default or indicates a near-term risk of default, the local currency rating can be several notches higher if we expect the sovereign not to default on its local currency obligations. Three sovereigns rated 'SD' at the end of 2020--Lebanon, Suriname, and Zambia--were assigned local currency ratings that remained in the 'CCC'/'CC' rating category.

Table 4

Sovereigns With Different Foreign Currency And Local Currency Ratings As Of Dec. 31, 2020
Country Foreign currency ratings (long-term/outlook/short-term) Local currency ratings (long-term/outlook/short-term)

Chile

A+/Negative/A-1 AA-/Negative/A-1+

Colombia

BBB-/Negative/A-3 BBB/Negative/A-2

Czech Republic

AA-/Stable/A-1+ AA/Stable/A-1+

Guatemala

BB-/Stable/B BB/Stable/B

Lebanon

SD/--/SD CC/Negative/C

Malaysia

A-/Negative/A-2 A/Negative/A-1

Mexico

BBB/Negative/A-2 BBB+/Negative/A-2

Mozambique

CCC+/Stable/C B-/Stable/B

New Zealand

AA/Positive/A-1+ AA+/Positive/A-1+

Peru

BBB+/Stable/A-2 A-/Stable/A-2

Poland

A-/Stable/A-2 A/Stable/A-1

Russia

BBB-/Stable/A-3 BBB/Stable/A-2

South Africa

BB-/Stable/B BB/Stable/B

Suriname

SD/--/SD CC/Negative/C

Thailand

BBB+/Stable/A-2 A-/Stable/A-2

Turkey

B+/Stable/B BB-/Stable/B

Venezuela

SD/--/D CCC-/Negative/C

Zambia

SD/--/SD CCC-/Negative/C
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Chart 12

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Foreign Currency Sovereign Rating Transition Rates

An analysis of transition rates for sovereigns shows that higher ratings correspond negatively with the observed frequency of default. Furthermore, investment-grade-rated sovereigns ('BBB-' or higher) tend to exhibit greater ratings stability (as measured by the frequency of rating transitions) than those rated speculative-grade.

From 1975 to 2020, on average, 96.76% of sovereigns rated 'AAA' maintained that rating over a one-year horizon. Over a longer period, ratings tend to show higher rates of transition. For example, the stability rate for 'AAA' decreases yet remains elevated at 90.4% over three years, 84.3% over five years, 72.1% over 10 years, and 67.6% over 15 years (see tables 5-9).

Despite this higher rate of transition over a longer horizon, very few 'AAA' rated sovereigns that transitioned over a 15-year period fell below the 'AA' category: On average, 27.97% of sovereigns rated 'AAA' transitioned to the 'AA' category over a 15-year horizon. Over the same horizon, less than 1.5% of 'AAA' sovereigns migrated to speculative-grade, and none transitioned to 'SD'.

Table 5

Sovereign Foreign Currency Average One-Year Transition Rates (1975-2020)
(%)
From/to AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC/CC SD NR
AAA 96.76 3.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 2.26 93.91 2.71 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.00 0.00 0.45
A 0.00 3.93 90.53 5.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.23
BBB 0.00 0.00 4.85 90.08 4.43 0.42 0.21 0.00 0.00
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.13 86.76 5.73 0.79 0.40 0.20
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.90 88.07 3.43 2.61 0.98
CCC/CC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 23.26 30.23 46.51 0.00
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 6

Sovereign Foreign Currency Average Three-Year Transition Rates (1975-2020)
(%)
From/to AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC/CC SD NR
AAA 90.43 8.69 0.18 0.18 0.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.18
AA 7.16 82.72 7.16 1.73 0.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.74
A 0.00 11.00 73.00 13.25 1.25 0.25 0.50 0.25 0.50
BBB 0.00 0.00 15.60 70.21 10.87 1.42 0.24 1.18 0.47
BB 0.00 0.00 0.21 17.83 64.76 14.01 0.42 2.12 0.64
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.38 12.38 71.11 4.13 9.01 3.00
CCC/CC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 24.32 13.51 62.16 0.00
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 7

Sovereign Foreign Currency Average Five-Year Transition Rates (1975-2020)
(%)
From/to AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC/CC SD NR
AAA 84.29 13.49 0.18 0.92 0.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.37
AA 12.70 71.62 12.16 1.89 0.81 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.81
A 0.00 17.71 57.22 19.62 2.72 0.27 0.54 1.36 0.54
BBB 0.00 0.00 22.81 55.97 14.59 2.92 0.27 2.39 1.06
BB 0.00 0.00 1.63 22.38 53.15 16.32 0.93 4.43 1.17
B 0.00 0.00 0.22 2.61 15.00 59.78 3.48 14.13 4.78
CCC/CC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.67 16.67 6.67 70.00 0.00
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 8

Sovereign Foreign Currency Average 10-Year Transition Rates (1975-2020)
(%)
From/to AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC/CC SD NR
AAA 72.09 22.62 1.27 1.48 0.63 0.42 0.00 0.00 1.48
AA 25.45 52.69 14.34 5.38 2.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A 1.69 24.41 40.68 19.66 5.42 1.69 0.68 5.08 0.68
BBB 0.00 3.92 30.59 39.61 14.51 2.35 0.39 5.49 3.14
BB 0.00 0.00 4.75 32.59 31.96 17.41 0.63 11.39 1.27
B 0.00 0.00 0.34 5.44 23.13 40.48 2.04 23.13 5.44
CCC/CC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.55 18.18 0.00 77.27 0.00
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 9

Sovereign Foreign Currency Average 15-Year Transition Rates (1975-2020)
(%)
From/to AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC/CC SD NR
AAA 67.55 27.97 1.58 0.00 0.53 0.79 0.00 0.00 1.58
AA 33.79 37.90 12.79 12.33 2.28 0.46 0.46 0.00 0.00
A 4.21 28.95 37.89 14.21 2.11 3.68 0.53 8.42 0.00
BBB 0.00 10.92 34.48 22.99 14.94 3.45 0.57 8.05 4.60
BB 0.00 0.00 4.95 44.06 20.79 13.86 0.50 15.84 0.00
B 0.00 0.00 0.65 11.04 19.48 34.42 1.30 31.82 1.30
CCC/CC 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.88 0.00 11.76 0.00 82.35 0.00
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Another gauge of ratings stability is the average time a sovereign spends at a particular rating. Table 10 shows the average number of years that the particular rating had been effective as of Dec. 31, 2020, grouped by rating category. 'AAA' ratings are much more stable than any other ratings. The 11 'AAA' sovereigns have averaged nearly 20 years at that rating level. The average number of years that each issuer has been at its current rating level tends to be higher in the higher rating categories.

The exception to this is the 'BBB' category, where the issuers have spent less time than those in the 'BB' category. In part, this reflects recent additions to the 'BBB' category, such as Botswana (downgraded to 'BBB+' in 2020), Croatia (upgraded to 'BBB-' in 2019), and Saint Helena (assigned an initial rating of 'BBB-' in 2019). The 'CCC'/'CC' category shows the lowest ratings stability, with an average time spent in this rating category of less than one year.

Table 10

Average Time Spent At Current Rating As Of Dec. 31, 2020
Rating category Average years Issuer count
AAA 19.97 11
AA 4.26 20
A 3.18 14
BBB 2.31 28
BB 2.74 16
B 2.01 35
CCC/CC 0.57 7
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Local Currency Sovereign Rating Actions And Transitions

In 2020, the number of local currency negative rating actions, including downgrades and defaults, rose to 26 (from six in 2019). This was the highest number of negative rating actions since 2011, when there were 39 local currency downgrades (see chart 13). With this increase, the ratio of local currency downgrades to upgrades rose to a high of 12 to 1 (see table 11).

Chart 13

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Table 11

Summary Of Sovereign Net Annual Local Currency Rating Changes
(%)
Year Issuer count as of Jan. 1 Upgrades Downgrades* Defaults Withdrawn ratings Changed ratings Unchanged ratings Downgrade/upgrade ratio
2000 79 11.39 6.33 1.27 0.00 18.99 81.01 0.56
2001 83 15.66 14.46 1.20 0.00 31.33 68.67 0.92
2002 87 9.20 16.09 0.00 0.00 25.29 74.71 1.75
2003 90 14.44 13.33 0.00 0.00 27.78 72.22 0.92
2004 97 17.53 10.31 1.03 0.00 28.87 71.13 0.59
2005 106 13.21 4.72 0.94 0.00 18.87 81.13 0.36
2006 109 13.76 3.67 0.92 0.00 18.35 81.65 0.27
2007 112 20.54 2.68 0.00 0.00 23.21 76.79 0.13
2008 117 6.84 13.68 0.85 0.85 22.22 77.78 2.00
2009 122 1.64 18.03 0.00 1.64 21.31 78.69 11.00
2010 123 14.63 12.20 0.81 0.00 27.64 72.36 0.83
2011 126 10.32 30.95 0.00 0.79 42.06 57.94 3.00
2012 128 7.03 18.75 0.78 0.00 26.56 73.44 2.67
2013 128 4.69 14.06 2.34 2.34 23.44 76.56 3.00
2014 127 8.66 14.17 0.00 1.57 24.41 75.59 1.64
2015 129 11.63 17.05 0.00 0.00 28.68 71.32 1.47
2016 131 7.63 18.32 0.00 1.53 27.48 72.52 2.40
2017 130 10.77 14.62 0.77 0.00 26.15 73.85 1.36
2018 131 9.92 6.87 0.76 0.00 17.56 82.44 0.69
2019 133 13.53 3.76 0.75 0.00 18.05 81.95 0.28
2020 135 1.48 17.78 1.48 0.00 20.74 79.26 12.00
Weighted average 9.72 12.89 0.63 0.41 23.64 76.36 2.45
Median 8.93 12.76 0.38 0.00 22.72 77.28 1.20
Standard deviation 5.57 7.78 0.64 0.66 9.51 9.51 3.26
Minimum 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 57.94 0.13
Maximum 20.54 30.95 2.34 2.34 42.06 100.00 12.00
Note: This table compares the net change in ratings from the first to the last day of each year. All intermediate ratings are disregarded. *Excludes downgrades to 'SD', shown separately in the defaults column. Descriptive statistics at the bottom of the table based on data from 1993-2020. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

In 2020, the average notch change for local currency downgrades (excluding defaults) rose to 1.46--higher than the 1.25 average notches for foreign currency downgrades--from 1.20 in 2019. This was the first time in three years that the average notch change for local currency downgrades exceeded the average for foreign currency downgrades. Rating actions on Suriname, which defaulted on its foreign currency debt but not its local currency debt, were the main cause of this difference in 2020.

Meanwhile, the average notch change of a local currency upgrade in 2020 remained 1.00 (see chart 14).

Chart 14

image

Table 12

Sovereign Local Currency Average One-Year Transition Rates (1993-2020)
(%)
From/to AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC/CC SD NR
AAA 96.06 3.94 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 1.33 92.53 5.07 0.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.53
A 0.00 2.86 90.09 6.83 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22
BBB 0.00 0.00 4.61 88.35 5.83 0.97 0.24 0.00 0.00
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.22 85.57 7.46 1.00 0.50 0.25
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.00 88.52 3.70 1.48 1.30
CCC/CC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 33.33 50.00 16.67 0.00
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 13

Sovereign Local Currency Average Five-Year Transition Rates (1993-2020)
(%) --Rating five years later--
From/to AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC/CC SD NR
AAA 81.01 17.16 0.23 1.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.46
AA 6.35 64.55 23.75 3.68 0.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
A 0.00 13.53 58.89 19.63 4.51 0.27 0.53 1.33 1.33
BBB 0.00 0.00 18.35 51.99 20.80 6.42 0.31 1.83 0.31
BB 0.00 0.00 1.54 20.92 45.54 25.54 2.15 2.77 1.54
B 0.00 0.00 0.26 2.34 17.97 61.98 5.99 5.47 5.99
CCC/CC 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.45 3.45 44.83 10.34 37.93 0.00
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 14

Sovereign Local Currency Average 15-Year Transition Rates (1993-2020)
(%) --Rating 15 years later--
From/to AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC/CC SD NR
AAA 65.56 25.93 4.07 1.85 0.37 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.22
AA 2.21 34.56 30.15 22.79 2.94 2.21 1.47 3.68 0.00
A 2.91 23.26 34.88 10.47 9.88 5.23 0.00 8.72 4.65
BBB 0.00 2.99 20.90 41.04 21.64 8.96 0.00 4.48 0.00
BB 0.00 0.00 8.11 27.03 31.53 21.62 1.80 9.91 0.00
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 13.13 18.18 48.48 6.06 12.12 2.02
CCC/CC 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.69 23.08 15.38 7.69 46.15 0.00
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Historical Sovereign Default Rates

Over our rating history, 24 sovereigns have defaulted, and half of these have defaulted multiple times. In line with this, half of the defaulters in 2020 had defaulted previously. Ecuador recorded its second default in 2020, Belize its fourth, and Argentina its fifth. Lebanon, Zambia, and Suriname defaulted for the first time in 2020, and Suriname also experienced its second default within the year. In addition to the foreign currency defaults, there were two local currency defaults in 2020, from Argentina and Ecuador.

Included among the foreign currency defaults of past years are some sovereign members of monetary unions (such as Greece and Cyprus within the eurozone) (see table 15). In our sovereign criteria, defaults of sovereign members of a monetary union are counted as foreign currency defaults because the individual country has no sovereign control over the common currency. In line with this reasoning, the local currency ratings on eurozone sovereigns converged with the (often lower) foreign currency ratings when they joined.

Table 15

Sovereign Foreign Currency Selective Defaults
Country Selective default date Emergence date Time in selective default Rating one year before selective default Rating three years before selective default
Russia Jan. 27, 1999 Dec. 8, 2000 22 months BB- -
Pakistan Jan. 29, 1999 Dec. 21, 1999 11 months B+ B+
Indonesia, first default Mar. 29, 1999 Mar. 30, 1999 One day B- BBB
Indonesia, second default Apr. 17, 2000 Oct. 2, 2000 Six months CCC+ BBB
Argentina, first default Nov. 6, 2001 Jun. 01, 2005 54 months BB BB
Indonesia, third default Apr. 22, 2002 Sep. 5, 2002 Four months B- CCC+
Paraguay Feb. 13, 2003 Jul. 26, 2004 18 months B B
Uruguay May. 16, 2003 Jun. 02, 2003 One month BB- BBB-
Grenada, first default Dec. 30, 2004 Nov. 18, 2005 11 months BB- -
Venezuela, first default Jan. 18, 2005 Mar. 03, 2005 One month B- B
Dominican Republic Feb. 1, 2005 Jun. 29, 2005 Five months CCC BB-
Belize, first default Dec. 7, 2006 Feb. 20, 2007 Three months CCC- B+
Seychelles* Aug. 7, 2008 - - B -
Ecuador, first default Dec. 15, 2008 Jun. 15, 2009 Six months B- CCC+
Jamaica, first default Jan. 14, 2010 Feb. 24, 2010 One month B B
Greece, first default Feb. 27, 2012 May. 2, 2012 Two months BB+ A-
Belize, second default Aug. 21, 2012 Mar. 20, 2013 Seven months B- B
Grenada, second default Oct. 8, 2012 Oct. 16, 2012 One week B- B-
Greece, second default Dec. 5, 2012 Dec. 18, 2012 Two weeks CC A-
Jamaica, second default Feb. 12, 2013 Mar. 06, 2013 22 days B- SD
Grenada*, third default Mar. 12, 2013 - - B- B-
Cyprus Jun. 28, 2013 Jul. 03, 2013 Five days BB+ A+
Argentina, second default Jul. 30, 2014 May. 06, 2016 22 months B- B
Ukraine Sep. 25, 2015 Oct. 19, 2015 One month CCC B+
Mozambique, first default April 1, 2016 April 15, 2016 15 days B B+
Congo-Brazzaville, first default Aug. 02, 2016 Aug. 09, 2016 One week B -
Mozambique, second default Jan. 18, 2017 - - B- B+
Belize, third default Mar. 17, 2017 Mar. 23, 2017 Six days B- B-
El Salvador, first default April 20, 2017 May 5, 2017 15 days B+ BB-
Congo-Brazzaville, second default Aug. 01, 2017 Sept. 5, 2015 One month B- B+
El Salvador, second default* Oct. 02, 2017 Oct. 03, 2017 One day B+ BB-
Venezuela, second default Nov. 13, 2017 - - CCC CCC+
Barbados Jun. 06, 2018 - - CCC+ B
Argentina, third default Aug. 29, 2019 Aug. 30, 2019 One day B+ B-
Argentina, fourth default Dec. 20, 2019 Dec. 30, 2019 Ten days B B-
Lebanon Mar. 11, 2020 - - B- B-
Argentina, fifth default Apr. 07, 2020 Sep. 07, 2020 Five months B B
Ecuador, second default Apr. 13, 2020 Sep. 01, 2020 Four months B- B
Suriname, first default Jul. 13, 2020 Jul. 16, 2020 Three days B B
Belize, fourth default Aug. 12, 2020 Aug. 21, 2020 Nine days B- B-
Zambia Oct. 21, 2020
Suriname, second default Nov. 06, 2020 - - B B
Note: Mali defaulted in 2012; we withdrew the rating in 2008. *The rating on Seychelles was withdrawn while it was still in default. The rating on Grenada was withdrawn while it was still in default in 2014. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 16

Sovereign Local Currency Selective Defaults
Country Selective default date Emergence date Time in selective default Rating one year before selective default Rating three years before selective default
Dominican Republic Apr. 9, 1999 Jun. 12, 2001 26 months BB -
Suriname Jan. 1, 2000 Feb. 2, 2001 13 months - -
Argentina, first default Nov. 6, 2001 Jun. 1, 2005 43 months BBB- BBB-
Cameroon Sep. 1, 2004 Dec. 3, 2004 Three months - -
Grenada, first default Jan. 1, 2005 Nov. 18, 2005 11 months BB- -
Grenada, second default* Dec. 1, 2006 Apr. 2, 2007 Four months B- BB-
Ecuador, first default Dec. 15, 2008 Jun. 15, 2009 Six months B- CCC+
Jamaica, first default Jan. 14, 2010 Feb. 24, 2010 One month B B
Greece, first default Feb. 27, 2012 May. 2, 2012 Two months BB+ A-
Greece, second default* Dec. 5, 2012 Dec. 18, 2012 Two weeks CC A-
Jamaica, second default Feb. 12, 2013 Mar. 06, 2013 22 days B- B-
Grenada, third default Mar. 12, 2013 - - B- B-
Cyprus Jun. 28, 2013 July 3, 2013 Five days BB+ A+
El Salvador, first default Apr. 20, 2017 May 5, 2017 15 days B+ BB-
El Salvador, second default* Oct. 02, 2017 Oct. 03, 2017 One day B+ BB-
Barbados Aug. 7, 2018 Nov. 16, 2018 Three months CCC+ B
Argentina, second default Aug. 29, 2019 Aug. 30, 2019 One day B+ B-
Argentina, third default Jan. 21, 2020 Sep. 07, 2020 Eight months B B-
Ecuador, second default Apr. 13, 2020 Sep. 01, 2020 Four months B- B
Notes: Cameroon and Grenada (excluding the third default) cured their local currency defaults before the ratings were changed. Mali defaulted in 2012; we withdrew the rating in 2008. *These defaults followed a prior default that occurred within the stated horizon. When an issuer reemerges from default, we treat it as a new issuer. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

During 1975-2020, no sovereign rated 'AAA' at the beginning of a year defaulted within the ensuing 15 years. Moreover, cumulative default rates were generally higher at lower rating levels, as one would expect. For example, from 1975 to 2020, the five-year average cumulative default rate for sovereigns rated in the 'A' category was only about 1.3%. For comparison, the five-year average cumulative default rate for sovereigns rated in the 'BBB' category was 2.2%; the 'BB' category, 4.1%; the 'B' category, 16.7%; and the 'CCC'/'CC' category, 69.1%.

The 15-year cumulative default rate averaged 3.4% for sovereigns with investment-grade ratings and 28.5% for sovereigns with speculative-grade ratings. The same trends are generally true when calculating default rates disaggregated by rating category.

Lower rating categories generally exhibit higher default rates over each time span (for example, as in the one- to 10-year time horizons shown in table 17). Some exceptions occur, such as when the number of defaults is low or when the underlying number of issuers is very small--such as at the rating modifier level (including the plus or minus after the rating).

One such exception is seen in the cumulative default rates for sovereigns in the 'A' and 'BBB' categories over the 10- to 15-year horizons. The 'A' category includes the defaults of Greece, Cyprus, and Barbados, since these sovereigns had previously been rated in the 'A' category. While we downgraded each of these to speculative-grade years before their eventual defaults, the defaults of Greece and Cyprus lift the cumulative average default rate for the 'A' category to 5.2% in year 11, modestly higher than the 4.9% default rate for the 'BBB' category over the same horizon. Although the cumulative default rates for both the 'A' and 'BBB' categories have declined in recent years, this pair of defaults continues to have an outsize impact on the relatively small sample of 'A' issuers.

For more details on annual cumulative default rates for 'A' and 'BBB' category issuers, please see tables 55 and 56 in Appendix 4. And for details on the cumulative default rates at the rating modifier level, please see table 60.

Table 17

Sovereign Foreign Currency Cumulative Average Default Rates Without Rating Modifiers (1975-2020)
(%) --Time horizon (years)--
Rating 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AAA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
AA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
A 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.9 2.5 3.1 3.8 4.4 5.2 6.0 6.8 7.3 8.4
BBB 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.7 2.2 2.8 3.4 3.7 4.1 4.5 4.9 5.4 5.9 6.9 7.5
BB 0.40 1.4 2.1 2.7 4.1 5.6 7.2 9.1 10.6 11.5 12.2 12.9 13.7 14.6 15.1
B 2.6 6.6 10.3 13.7 16.7 19.2 21.9 24.6 26.6 28.5 30.6 32.6 34.0 35.5 37.3
CCC/CC 46.5 54.2 62.2 65.7 69.1 76.8 80.7 80.7 80.7 80.7 84.6 84.6 84.6 84.6 84.6
Investment grade 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.4
Speculative grade 3.3 6.1 8.6 10.7 12.9 15.1 17.3 19.5 21.2 22.6 24.1 25.3 26.4 27.5 28.5
All rated 1.2 2.3 3.4 4.3 5.3 6.2 7.2 8.1 8.8 9.4 10.0 10.6 11.1 11.7 12.2
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Generally, cumulative default rates by rating category have been higher for foreign currency sovereign credit ratings than for local currency sovereign credit ratings. As our "Sovereign Rating Methodology" explains, we consider that--other things being equal--the probability of default on a sovereign's local currency obligation could be lower than on a foreign currency obligation. Furthermore, the local currency sovereign default rates could be understated because it is hard to detect forced rollovers of domestic bank debt or coerced exchanges of local-law local currency debt when domestic financial institutions hold the debt.

Table 18

Sovereign Local Currency Cumulative Average Default Rates Without Rating Modifiers (1993-2020)
(%) --Time horizon (years)--
Rating 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.53 1.10 1.72 2.41 3.15
A 0.00 0.00 0.24 0.74 1.27 1.83 2.42 3.04 3.69 4.73 5.48 6.30 7.20 8.20 9.35
BBB 0.00 0.52 1.06 1.35 1.66 1.99 2.71 3.10 3.52 3.52 3.52 3.52 3.52 3.52 3.52
BB 0.50 1.28 1.56 1.84 2.46 3.12 3.47 4.22 5.06 5.52 6.03 6.61 7.26 8.02 8.94
B 1.48 2.87 4.39 5.34 6.37 7.51 8.77 10.17 10.96 12.31 13.33 13.92 14.62 15.43 15.43
CCC/C 16.67 19.35 22.24 28.72 35.84 43.86 48.54 48.54 48.54 48.54 53.69 53.69 53.69 53.69 53.69
Investment grade 0.00 0.12 0.31 0.51 0.72 0.94 1.25 1.49 1.75 2.03 2.33 2.66 3.01 3.39 3.81
Speculative grade 1.73 2.92 3.96 4.84 5.92 7.09 8.05 9.10 9.87 10.74 11.72 12.27 12.91 13.66 14.10
All rated 0.63 1.13 1.62 2.06 2.56 3.10 3.62 4.12 4.54 4.99 5.49 5.87 6.30 6.77 7.19
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Sovereigns that approach default usually experience multiple successive downgrades as the likelihood of default increases. Table 19 shows the last date of the highest rating, the number of intermediate rating actions (including outlook revisions) before default, and the date of the sovereign's default.

Table 19

Length Of Time To Default
Government Date of default Date of initial rating Highest rating/outlook before default Last date of highest rating Number of intermediate rating actions
Foreign currency sovereign credit rating defaults
Russia Jan. 27, 1999 Oct. 7, 1996 BB-/Stable Jun. 8, 1998 4
Pakistan Jan. 29, 1999 Nov. 21, 1994 B+/Positive May. 31, 1998 4
Indonesia, first default Mar. 29, 1999 Jul. 20, 1992 BBB/Stable Oct. 9, 1997 7
Indonesia, second default Apr. 17, 2000 Mar. 30, 1999 CCC+/Stable Apr. 16, 2000 0
Argentina, first default Nov. 6, 2001 Aug. 25, 1993 BB/Stable Nov. 13, 2000 7
Indonesia, third default Apr. 22, 2001 Oct. 2, 2000 B-/Stable May. 20, 2001 2
Paraguay Feb. 13, 2003 Oct. 23, 1995 BB-/Stable Feb. 3, 1999 3
Uruguay May. 16, 2003 Feb. 14, 1994 BBB-/Stable Feb. 13, 2002 7
Grenada, first default Dec. 30, 2004 Mar. 22, 2002 BB-/Stable Sep. 16, 2004 2
Venezuela, first default Jan. 18, 2005 Oct. 5, 1977 AAA Aug. 12, 1982 14
Dominican Republic Feb. 1, 2005 Feb. 13, 1997 BB-/Stable Jun. 9, 2003 5
Belize, first default Dec. 7, 2006 Aug. 22, 2000 BB/Stable Oct. 22, 2001 7
Seychelles* Aug. 7, 2008 Sep. 14, 2006 B/Stable July. 31, 2008 1
Ecuador, first default Dec. 15, 2008 Aug. 25, 2000 B-/Stable Nov. 13, 2008 7
Jamaica, first default Jan. 14, 2010 Nov. 9, 1999 B+/Stable Jul. 27, 2003 5
Greece, first default Feb. 27, 2012 Sep. 9, 1988 A+/Stable Nov. 16, 2004 13
Belize, second default Aug. 21, 2012 Feb. 20, 2007 B/Stable Aug. 3, 2011 4
Grenada, second default Oct. 8, 2012 Nov. 18, 2005 B-/Stable Oct. 7, 2012 2
Greece, second default Dec. 5, 2012 May. 2, 2012 CCC/Stable Dec. 4, 2012 0
Jamaica, second default Feb. 12, 2013 Feb. 24, 2010 B-/Stable Feb. 11, 2013 0
Grenada, third default* Mar. 12, 2013 Oct. 16, 2012 CCC+/Negative Mar. 11, 2013 0
Cyprus Jun. 28, 2013 Feb. 14, 1994 AA-/Stable Nov. 8, 1998 12
Argentina, second default Jul. 30, 2014 Jun. 01, 2005 B+/Stable Aug. 10, 2008 8
Ukraine Sep. 25, 2015 Dec. 21, 2001 BB-/Stable Jun. 11, 2008 14
Mozambique, first default Apr. 1, 2016 Jul. 7, 2004 B+/Stable Feb. 13, 2014 4
Congo-Brazzaville, first default Aug. 2, 2016 Oct. 22, 2013 B+/Stable Feb. 8, 2015 2
Mozambique, second default Jan. 18, 2017 Apr. 15, 2016 B-/Stable May. 26, 2016 2
Belize, third default Mar. 17, 2017 Mar. 20, 2013 B-/Positive Nov. 13, 2016 2
El Salvador, first default Apr. 20, 2017 Aug. 26, 1996 BB+/Stable May. 11, 2009 7
Congo-Brazzaville, second default Aug. 1, 2017 Aug. 9, 2016 B-/Stable Jul. 6, 2017 1
El Salvador, second default Oct. 2, 2017 May. 5, 2017 CC/Negative Oct. 1, 2017 0
Venezuela, second default Nov. 13, 2017 Mar. 3, 2005 BB-/Positive Aug. 18, 2011 9
Barbados Jun. 06, 2018 Dec. 17, 1999 A-/Stable Aug. 4, 2004 9
Argentina, third default Aug. 29, 2019 May. 06, 2016 B+/Stable Oct. 30, 2017 4
Argentina, fourth default Dec. 20, 2019 Aug. 30, 2019 CCC-/Negative Dec. 19, 2019 0
Lebanon Mar. 11, 2020 Feb. 26, 1997 BB-/Stable Feb. 04, 1998 9
Argentina, fifth default Apr. 07, 2020 Dec. 30, 2019 CCC-/Negative Apr. 06, 2020 0
Ecuador, second default Apr. 13, 2020 Jun. 15, 2009 B+/Stable Aug. 11, 2015 3
Suriname, first default Jul. 13, 2020 Nov. 23, 1999 BB-/Positive Apr. 27, 2014 0
Belize, fourth default Aug. 12, 2020 Mar. 23, 2017 B-/Stable Apr. 15, 2020 2
Zambia Oct. 21, 2020 Mar. 22, 2011 B+/Stable Oct. 24, 2013 5
Suriname, second default Nov. 06, 2020 Jul. 16, 2020 CCC/Stable Nov. 05, 2020 3
Local currency sovereign credit rating defaults
Dominican Republic Apr. 9, 1999 Nov. 12, 1997 BB/Stable Apr. 8, 1999 0
Suriname Jan. 1, 2000 Nov. 23, 1999 B/Stable Dec. 31, 1999 0
Argentina Nov. 6, 2001 Sep. 1, 1994 BBB-/Stable Nov. 13, 2000 6
Cameroon Sep. 1, 2004 Nov. 26, 2003 B/Stable Aug. 31, 2004 0
Grenada, first default Jan. 1, 2005 Mar. 22, 2002 BB-/Stable Sep. 16, 2004 3
Grenada, second default* Dec. 1, 2006 Nov. 18, 2005 B-/Stable Nov. 30, 2006 0
Ecuador, first default Dec. 15, 2008 Aug. 25, 2000 B-/Stable Nov. 13, 2008 6
Jamaica, first default Jan. 14, 2010 Nov. 9, 1999 BB-/Stable Jul. 27, 2003 6
Greece, first default Feb. 27, 2012 Mar. 26, 1997 A+/Stable Nov. 16, 2004 10
Greece, second default Dec. 5, 2012 May. 2, 2012 CCC/Stable Dec. 4, 2012 0
Jamaica, second default Feb. 12, 2013 Feb. 24, 2010 B-/Stable Feb. 11, 2013 0
Grenada, third default Mar. 12, 2013 Apr. 2, 2007 B-/Stable Oct. 7, 2012 2
Cyprus Jun. 28, 2013 Jul. 16, 1996 AA+/Stable Nov. 8, 1998 14
El Salvador, first default Apr. 20, 2017 Aug. 26, 1996 BBB+/Stable Jan. 22, 2001 7
El Salvador, second default Oct. 2, 2017 May. 5, 2017 CC/Negative Oct. 1, 2017 0
Barbados Aug. 7, 2018 Dec. 17, 1999 AA-/Stable Aug. 19, 2003 11
Argentina, second default Aug. 29, 2019 Jun. 01, 2005 B+/Stable Oct. 30, 2017 12
Argentina, third default Jan. 21, 2020 Aug. 30, 2019 CCC-/Negative Jan. 20, 2020 0
Ecuador, second default Apr. 13, 2020 Jun. 15, 2009 B+/Stable Aug. 11, 2015 3
Notes: Mali defaulted in 2012; we withdrew the rating in 2008. Grenada cured its first two local currency defaults before ratings were changed. *The ratings on Seychelles and Grenada were withdrawn while they were still in default. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

On average, for those sovereigns that eventually default, there is a correlation between the initial rating and the time to default--the higher the rating, the longer the time to default. For example, for the entire pool of sovereign defaults (1975-2020), the average times to default for issuers that were originally rated in the 'AA' and 'BBB' categories were 19.37 years and 15.08 years, respectively, from the initial ratings, whereas issuers in the 'B' rating category had an average time to default of only 7.06 years.

When an issuer emerges from a default (including selective default), we treat it as a new entity with a newly assigned initial rating. Tables 20 and 21 display the median, average, and standard deviations for the times to default from original foreign currency and local currency ratings. Tables 22 and 23 present the average and median times to default from the date we assigned each entity a unique rating on its path to default, excluding the original rating.

In both cases, the standard deviation of the times to default shrinks progressively as the rating gets lower within speculative-grade. Generally speaking, the average time to default for each rating category is longer when based on the initial rating on a sovereign than when based on later ratings.

Table 20

Time To Default From Original Rating--Foreign Currency Ratings
(Years) Average Median Standard deviation Number of defaults
AAA 27.29 27.29 - 1
AA 19.37 19.37 - 1
A 18.47 18.47 - 1
BBB 15.08 15.08 11.86 2
BB 9.98 7.76 7.74 8
B 7.06 6.89 4.98 21
CCC/CC 1.77 0.41 3.67 8
Total 8.04 6.79 7.36 42
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 21

Time To Default From Original Rating--Local Currency Ratings
(Years) Average Median Standard deviation Number of defaults
AAA - - - 0
AA 17.80 17.80 1.19 2
A 14.92 14.92 - 1
BBB 13.92 13.92 9.52 2
BB 2.09 2.09 0.97 2
B 5.78 5.64 5.26 8
CCC/CC 3.63 0.59 4.67 5
Total 7.35 6.56 6.80 20
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 22

Time To Default From Post-Original Ratings--Foreign Currency Ratings
(Years) Average Median Standard deviation Number of defaults
AAA - - - 0
AA 22.43 22.43 - 1
A 9.32 8.72 6.10 1
BBB 7.49 5.92 6.48 4
BB 6.25 4.60 5.86 4
B 4.61 3.34 4.54 16
CCC/CC 1.15 0.45 2.06 8
NR 3.74 3.74 - 1
Total 4.22 1.91 5.07 35
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 23

Time To Default From Post-Original Ratings--Local Currency Ratings
(Years) Average Median Standard deviation Number of defaults
AAA - - - 0
AA 14.10 14.10 0.75 1
A 7.96 8.57 4.38 2
BBB 4.55 2.20 3.62 0
BB 5.09 4.71 4.73 3
B 4.10 2.60 4.02 4
CCC/CC 1.14 0.35 2.03 2
NR 4.50 4.50 - 1
Total 4.22 2.29 4.41 13
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Appendix 1: Gini Ratios

In addition to examining the absolute performance of ratings, we examine their relative performance. We utilize the Lorenz curve, a graphical representation of the proportionality of a distribution, as one measure of relative ratings performance, and we summarize this via the Gini coefficient. For this study, the Lorenz curve is plotted with the x-axis showing the cumulative share of issuers, arranged by rating, while the y-axis represents the cumulative share of defaulters, also arranged by rating. For both axes of the Lorenz curve, the observations are ordered from the low end of the ratings scale ('CCC'/'CC') to the high end ('AAA').

As an example, if entities rated 'CCC+' to 'CC' made up 10% of the total issuers at the start of the time frame examined (x-axis) and 50% of the defaulters (y-axis), then the coordinate (10, 50) would be the first point on the curve. If S&P Global Ratings' sovereign credit ratings only randomly approximated default risk, the Lorenz curve would fall along the diagonal. The Gini coefficient--which is a summary statistic of the Lorenz curve--would thus be zero. If the ratings were perfectly rank ordered so that all defaults occurred only among the lowest-rated entities, the curve would capture all of the area above the diagonal on the graph (the ideal curve), and the Gini coefficient would be 1.

Lorenz curves for foreign currency and local currency sovereign credit ratings resemble the ideal Lorenz curves, though the small sample size results in less accurate readings than in larger sectors. A larger number of data points would register a smooth line that curves as in chart 15. Many of the other charts show lines that take sharp turns, resulting in angles rather than curves.

Chart 15 shows the one-year Lorenz curve for sovereign foreign currency ratings, and table 24 provides further details. The first point indicates that sovereigns rated 'CCC+' and lower accounted for 1.39% of ratings and 52.6% of defaults over a one-year horizon. Sovereigns rated 'B+' and lower accounted for 21.15% of sovereign ratings and yet nearly 95% of defaults. Because there are no defaults at any rating higher than 'BB-', the chart shows a strong relationship between speculative-grade ratings and defaults. Fewer defaults come from the higher-rated cohorts of sovereigns.

Chart 15

image

Table 24

Sovereign One-Year Lorenz Curve Values
(%) Y-axis: cumulative proportion of defaults X-axis: cumulative proportion of ratings
AAA 100 100
AA+ 100 81.08
AA 100 76.04
AA- 100 70.94
A+ 100 66.77
A 100 63.38
A- 100 57.83
BBB+ 100 52.79
BBB 100 48.79
BBB- 100 44.01
BB+ 100 37.49
BB 100 33.03
BB- 100 27.45
B+ 94.74 21.15
B 94.74 13.46
B- 81.58 6.17
CCC/CC 52.63 1.39
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Chart 16

image

Chart 17

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Chart 18

image

Over the one-, three-, five-, and 10-year horizons, weighted average Gini coefficients for foreign currency sovereign credit ratings are higher than those of local currency ratings. Foreign currency and local currency Gini coefficients are based on two separate datasets. Foreign currency ratings present a larger sample, with ratings over a longer time horizon and more defaults. The rating history for local currency ratings begins in 1993, and credit events such as the Asian financial crisis in 1997, the global financial crisis in 2008, and the eurozone sovereign debt crisis in 2010-2012 have higher weighting within this shorter sample period (see charts 19-22).

Chart 19

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Chart 20

image

Chart 21

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Chart 22

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Appendix 2: Regional Ratings Distribution And Rating Actions

Regional ratings distribution

S&P Global Ratings segments most of the sovereigns it rates into five regional categories:

  • Middle East and Africa (including North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa)
  • Latin America (including the Caribbean)
  • Asia-Pacific
  • Eurozone
  • Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)--the former Soviet republics

In this study, we also include a broad designation for the emerging and frontier markets region, consisting of 101 sovereigns (including those currently and formerly rated), which come from all of the categories except the eurozone (see table 25).

Table 25

Sovereigns By Region
Middle East And Africa Latin America Central and Eastern Europe and Commonwealth of Independent States Asia-Pacific Eurozone --Emerging and frontier markets--
Abu Dhabi Argentina Albania Australia Austria Abu Dhabi Ethiopia Papua New Guinea
Angola Aruba Azerbaijan Bangladesh Belgium Albania Fiji Paraguay
Bahrain Bahamas Belarus Cambodia Cyprus Angola Gabon Peru
Benin Barbados Bosnia and Herzegovina China Estonia* Argentina Georgia Philippines
Botswana Belize Bulgaria Cook Islands Finland Aruba Ghana Poland
Burkina Faso Bermuda Croatia Fiji France Azerbaijan Grenada Qatar
Cameroon Bolivia Czech Republic Hong Kong Germany Bahamas Guatemala Ras Al Kaimah
Cape Verde Brazil Estonia* India Greece Bahrain Honduras Romania
Congo Chile Georgia Indonesia Ireland Bangladesh Hong Kong Russia
Congo, D.R. Colombia Hungary Japan Italy Barbados Hungary Rwanda
Egypt Costa Rica Kazakhstan Korea Latvia* Belarus India Saudi Arabia
Ethiopia Curacao Latvia* Malaysia Lithuania* Belize Indonesia Senegal
Ghana Dominican Republic Lithuania* Mongolia Luxembourg Bermuda Iraq Serbia
Iraq Ecuador Macedonia New Zealand Malta Bolivia Israel Sharjah
Israel El Salvador Montenegro Pakistan Netherlands Bosnia & Herzegovina Jamaica Singapore
Jordan Guatemala Poland Papua New Guinea Portugal Botswana Jordan South Africa
Kenya Honduras Romania Philippines Slovak Republic* Brazil Kazakhstan Sri Lanka
Kuwait Jamaica Russia Singapore Slovenia* Bulgaria Kenya Suriname
Lebanon Mexico Serbia Sri Lanka Spain Burkina Faso Korea Taiwan
Morocco Montserrat Slovak Republic* Taiwan Cambodia Kuwait Tajikistan
Mozambique Nicaragua Slovenia* Thailand Cameroon Lebanon Thailand
Nigeria Panama Tajikistan Vietnam Cape Verde Macedonia Togo
Oman Paraguay Turkey Chile Malaysia Trinidad & Tobago
Qatar Peru Ukraine China Mexico Tunisia
Ras Al Khaimah Suriname Uzbekistan Colombia Mongolia Turkey
Rwanda Trinidad and Tobago Congo, D.R. Montenegro Turks and Caicos Islands
Saudi Arabia Turks and Caicos Congo-Brazzaville (Congo) Montserrat Uganda
Senegal Uruguay Costa Rica Morocco Ukraine
Sharjah Venezuela Croatia Mozambique Uruguay
South Africa Curacao Nicaragua Uzbekistan
St. Helena Dominican Republic Nigeria Venezuela
Togo Ecuador Oman Vietnam
Uganda Egypt Pakistan Zambia
Zambia El Salvador Panama
*Included in two European regions. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.

Most new sovereign ratings since 1998 have come from the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, and these regions have added the most speculative-grade ratings to the pool of sovereign ratings over the past decade. The percentage of sovereign ratings in Central and Eastern Europe and the CIS has also grown substantially over the past 20 years, but the growth is notably smaller on an absolute basis. Asia-Pacific has added fewer ratings than other regions, and its increase has not notably affected the overall quality of sovereign credit ratings. Meanwhile, the eurozone has retained its tally of 19 ratings since 1998.

With much of the growth in sovereign ratings coming from regions with higher concentrations of lower-rated issuers, the overall effect has been reduced credit quality for sovereigns generally, while the global coverage of rated countries has broadened.

Middle East and Africa.  At the end of 2020, there were 32 sovereign credit ratings in the Middle East and Africa, with an additional two in default. This compares with nine rated sovereigns in the region in 1998. Sovereign ratings in this region are concentrated at the lower rating levels, with 22 speculative-grade ratings and all but one of these in the 'B' category or lower (see chart 23).

Chart 23

image

Latin America.  The number of Latin American sovereign credit ratings has increased steadily since 1993, and the majority have been speculative-grade in all but one year (2014). At the end of 2020, there were 27 Latin American sovereigns with foreign currency sovereign credit ratings, and 15 of these were rated speculative-grade. Furthermore, two additional sovereigns (Suriname and Venezuela) were rated 'SD' at the end of 2020. Among the 12 investment-grade sovereigns, the 'BBB' category is the largest, with 10 sovereigns (see chart 24).

Chart 24

image

Asia-Pacific.  At the end of 2020, there were 21 rated Asia-Pacific sovereigns, and this count has been largely steady since 2007. Asia-Pacific sovereigns show a broad range of credit quality. About 62% of rated sovereigns in the region are investment-grade, and two are rated 'AAA': Australia and Singapore. Of the regions we cover, Asia-Pacific has the most even distribution of sovereign ratings, with no single rating category accounting for more than 20% of the region's foreign currency ratings (see chart 25).

Chart 25

image

Central and Eastern Europe and the CIS.  At the end of 2020, there were 25 rated sovereigns from Central and Eastern Europe and the CIS, 48% of which were speculative-grade. This marks the second year in a row with most sovereigns in this region rated investment-grade, after the majority were speculative-grade in each year from 2010 through 2018. By rating category, the 'B' category is the largest, with seven issuers. 'B' category ratings surpassed 'BB' category ratings in 2018 and have since accounted for a growing share of speculative-grade ratings in the region. Within the investment-grade category, the 'BBB' category is largest, with six issuers (see chart 26).

Chart 26

image

Eurozone.  Among all regions, the eurozone has the fewest sovereign credit ratings, with 19, and this number has not changed since 1997. Eurozone ratings are also the highest, with more than half either 'AAA' or in the 'AA' category, and just one sovereign in the region (Greece) is currently rated speculative-grade (see chart 27).

Chart 27

image

Emerging and frontier markets.  At the end of 2020, there were 93 rated emerging and frontier market sovereigns not rated 'SD', and 59% of these were speculative-grade. The number of rated emerging market sovereigns has more than doubled since 1998, and the majority have been speculative-grade in each year since. The 'B' rating category is the largest within emerging and frontier markets and accounts for about 60% of speculative-grade issuers in the region. The number of emerging market sovereigns rated 'CCC+' or lower has been rising over the past 10 years, reaching a high of seven by the end of 2020 (see chart 28).

Chart 28

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Regional rating movement

Middle East and Africa.  Downgrades (including defaults) of Middle Eastern and African sovereigns rose to a high of 13 in 2020. This comes after a period of few downgrades in 2018-2019, which followed a period of credit stress in 2015–2017 that was related to a collapse in oil prices. Downgrades in this region have sharply outnumbered upgrades in the years since the global financial crisis, with 56 downgrades and only 14 upgrades in 2010-2020.

Last year posed unprecedented challenges for the region. Not only did the pandemic depress both domestic and external demand for many sectors, but oil exporters also suffered from extreme price volatility, with crude prices even falling below zero for a short period. The oil price collapse hurt external and fiscal positions for energy exporters. In fact, of the 13 rating actions, only Lebanon's default was not linked to either of these two factors (see chart 29).

Chart 29

image

Latin America.  After falling in 2018 and 2019, Latin American sovereign downgrades rose to a high of 11 in 2020 (up from just three in 2019). These included five downgrades to 'SD' for four sovereigns. There were no upgrades.

The pandemic was a crucial contributor to economic and fiscal difficulties that resulted in most of the downgrades. Health issues weighed down both production and domestic demand, and economies contracted sharply, which pressured fiscal revenue and credit metrics. External balances also suffered in tourism-dependent economies such as the Bahamas. With its wide-ranging effects, the pandemic was cited as a factor in the rating actions on each of the four sovereigns that defaulted in 2020.

After OPEC+ failed to agree on a reduction in oil supply during a meeting on March 6, 2020, oil prices plunged, and the sell-off was exacerbated by the collapse in demand as COVID-19 brought about a global recession. Lower oil prices pressured fiscal outcomes and external balances for many Latin American sovereigns in 2020, and these lower prices were cited as a factor in five of the downgrades in 2020: Bolivia, Trinidad and Tobago, Mexico, Ecuador, and Suriname (see chart 30).

Chart 30

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Asia-Pacific.  Last year was the first year since 1993 that no Asia-Pacific sovereigns were upgraded. Nonetheless, the region's sovereign ratings were more stable during the year than the ratings in other regions, with just two downgrades. The public health outcomes during the pandemic varied across the region, with the more developed economies able to control the virus better and earlier than the rest. Nonetheless, most of the region's economic prospects were supported by strong, resilient demand during the pandemic for export goods, particularly electronics and home office equipment.

There were two negative rating actions in the region in 2020. We downgraded Papua New Guinea to 'B-' from 'B', and we downgraded Sri Lanka twice during the year, to 'CCC+'. The pandemic's economic and budgetary effects weighed on the fiscal metrics of both sovereigns, while low oil and gas prices were a further challenge for the former (see chart 31).

Chart 31

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Central and Eastern Europe and the CIS.  Although the number of upgrades in Central and Eastern Europe and the CIS dropped in 2020 (after steadily increasing between 2015 and 2019), rating actions in this region remained largely positive for the year, with two upgrades and no downgrades. We upgraded both Lithuania and Latvia by one notch, to 'A+', on the back of strong growth trends and good fiscal outcomes that improved their debt paths. Both sovereigns were upgraded in February, before the extent of COVID-19's global spread was fully known (see chart 32).

Chart 32

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Eurozone.  Eurozone sovereign rating actions have been largely positive in the past seven years as the region has recovered from the global financial crisis and the regional sovereign debt crisis. Eurozone sovereigns had two upgrades in 2020, and the region had no downgrades for a fifth consecutive year. However, even with these positive rating actions over the past five years, the region's credit quality remains weaker than before those crises. About 79% of eurozone sovereigns were rated in the 'A' category or higher at the end of 2020, down from 95% at the end of 2007.

COVID-19 has brought the string of upgrades to a halt, at least for now. The pandemic caused eurozone economies to contract, necessitating large increases in public spending. Debt levels have risen substantially for many sovereigns, creating further risks if the economic recovery is much slower than expected (see chart 33).

Chart 33

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Emerging and frontier markets.  Emerging and frontier markets, which include countries also included within the other regions, faced challenges from the pandemic and falling oil prices in 2020. All the sovereign defaults during the year were of emerging and frontier market sovereigns. There were no upgrades for the region's sovereigns for the first time since 1992, and we downgraded a record 26 sovereigns from this region. Most of these downgrades were of countries that entered 2020 with speculative-grade ratings, which were less resilient to the unexpected difficulties of 2020.

Speculative-grade issuers accounted for an outsize proportion of emerging market downgrades in 2020, with 69% (see chart 34).

Chart 34

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Other sovereigns.  In addition to the sovereigns grouped in the regions above, 12 rated sovereigns--including the U.S., the U.K., and Canada--are not designated in any of these regional categories (see table 26).

Table 26

Ratings On Other Sovereigns, Including The U.S., The U.K., And Canada, As Of Dec. 31, 2020
Country Foreign currency ratings (long-term/outlook/short-term) Local currency ratings (long-term/outlook/short-term)

U.S.

AA+/Stable/A-1+ AA+/Stable/A-1+

U.K.

AA/Stable/A-1+ AA/Stable/A-1+

Canada

AAA/Stable/A-1+ AAA/Stable/A-1+

Denmark

AAA/Stable/A-1+ AAA/Stable/A-1+

Norway

AAA/Stable/A-1+ AAA/Stable/A-1+

Sweden

AAA/Stable/A-1+ AAA/Stable/A-1+

Switzerland

AAA/Stable/A-1+ AAA/Stable/A-1+

Iceland

A/Stable/A-1 A/Stable/A-1

Liechtenstein

AAA/Stable/A-1+ AAA/Stable/A-1+

Andorra

BBB/Stable/A-2 BBB/Stable/A-2

Guernsey

AA-/Stable/A-1+ AA-/Stable/A-1+

Jersey

AA-/Stable/A-1+ AA-/Stable/A-1+
The sovereign ratings on Isle of Man, Kyrgyzstan, Libya, Madagascar, Mali, and Seychelles were withdrawn. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Appendix 3: Methodology And Definitions

This study is based on long-term sovereign credit ratings. The methodology tracks rating migrations over time and includes revisions to 'SD' (selective default). An 'SD' rating is more common for sovereign issuers than a 'D' (default) rating because defaulting sovereigns often continue to service some of their debt. This study is based on issuer credit ratings as opposed to issue ratings. In other words, we look at the ratings on the central governments themselves, not the ratings on the individual securities these governments might have issued.

Our metrics treat all issuers equally and are not adjusted for size or influence. Therefore, for the purposes of this study, a default by Argentina counts the same as a default by Mali, even though the latter has a much smaller economy. Our study tracks defaults on a sovereign's commercial debt, including both bonds and bank loans.

Withdrawn ratings (as indicated with the abbreviation NR, which stands for "not rated") are included up until the date of withdrawal. We record defaults after the date of withdrawal if we obtain knowledge of those defaults. As of Dec. 31, 2020, S&P Global Ratings had withdrawn public ratings on 12 sovereigns: Benin, Cambodia, Gabon, Grenada, Guernsey, Isle of Man, Kyrgyz Republic, Libya, Madagascar, Mali, Seychelles, and Tunisia. (We reinstated the ratings on Benin in July 2018 and Guernsey in October 2014.) There are 181 total rating records for sovereigns, including defaulted ratings.

S&P Global Ratings generally defines "default" as the failure to meet a principal or interest payment on the due date in the original terms of a debt issue (see "S&P Global Ratings Definitions," Jan. 5, 2021). However, questions can arise when applying this definition to sovereign obligations. We consider a sovereign to be in default under any of the following circumstances:

  • For local currency and foreign currency bonds, notes, and bills issued by the central government and held outside the public sector of the country, a sovereign default occurs when the central government either fails to pay scheduled debt service on the due date or tenders an exchange offer of new debt with less favorable terms than the original issue.
  • For private-sector bank loans incurred by the central government, a sovereign default occurs when the central government either fails to pay scheduled debt service on the due date or negotiates with the bank creditors a rescheduling of principal or interest at less favorable terms than for the original loan.

Emergence from default also can be a complicated analytical issue for sovereigns. Sovereigns often undertake debt restructurings through exchange offers that, we find, rarely close the books on the restructured debt. For a number of reasons, from difficulty in contacting all debtholders to holdouts seeking payment in accordance with original terms, we have observed that participation in sovereign distressed debt exchanges usually does not reach 100%. This stands in contrast with debt restructurings in the U.S. and many other jurisdictions, where all obligations are typically addressed in bankruptcy reorganization. An entity reorganizing outside of bankruptcy generally must continue payments on the holdouts' debt or face the prospect of an involuntary bankruptcy filing.

Less common among sovereign defaults is the repudiation of debt, which most often follows a revolutionary change of regime (as occurred in Russia in 1917, China in 1949, and Cuba in 1960). S&P Global Ratings takes no position on the propriety of government debt defaults, repudiations, and the like. S&P Global Ratings also does not take a position on the course of negotiations (or the absence thereof) between creditors and the government to work out debt that is repudiated or the parameters of any settlements between creditors and governments that could occur. Instead, our issuer credit ratings are forward-looking opinions about an obligor's overall creditworthiness. We analyze historical defaults to form our own view as to the extent that they could affect the likelihood of a sovereign defaulting in the future.

In general, S&P Global Ratings' sovereign credit ratings apply only to debt that the present government acknowledges as its own. If there is no resolution of a default through the courts or by the parties involved, S&P Global Ratings eventually withdraws the defaulted ratings based on the diminished prospects for resolution and the defaulted ratings' lack of relevance in the context of the market. For example, S&P Global Ratings has no ratings on direct and guaranteed debt of the government of China issued prior to the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949 because S&P Global Ratings first rated China in 1992, long after the new government repudiated pre-1949 debt. The default is included in our sovereign default survey, which covers defaults by rated and unrated issuers.

The dataset for this study includes sovereign credit ratings that were withdrawn following default. In those cases, if the sovereign has been rated again, a new record would have been established, and the new rating would not be connected to the defaulted rating. This creates more than one record for defaulted sovereigns. Therefore, there are 181 foreign currency records for 145 sovereigns that we have rated.

Static pool methodology

We conduct our default studies on the basis of groupings called static pools. For the purposes of this study, we form static pools by grouping issuers by rating category at the beginning of each year, quarter, or month that the database covers. Each static pool is followed from that point forward. All issuers included in the study are assigned to one or more static pools. When an issuer defaults, we assign that default to all of the static pools to which the issuer belonged.

We use the static pool methodology to avoid certain pitfalls in estimating default rates. For example, this methodology ensures that default rates account for rating migration and can be calculated across multiperiod time horizons. Some other methods for calculating default and rating transition rates might charge defaults against only the initial rating on the issuer, ignoring more recent rating changes that supply more current information. Other methods may calculate default rates using only the most recent year's default and rating data, which may yield comparatively low default rates during periods of high rating activity because they ignore prior years' default activity.

The pools are static in the sense that their membership remains constant over time. Each static pool can be interpreted as a buy-and-hold portfolio. Because errors, if any, are corrected by every new update and because the criteria for inclusion or exclusion of sovereigns in the default study are subject to minor revisions as time goes by, it is not possible to compare static pools across different studies. Therefore, every update revises results to the same starting date of Dec. 31, 1975, to avoid continuity problems.

For instance, the 1976 static pool consists of all sovereigns rated as of 12:01 a.m. on Jan. 1, 1976. Adding those sovereigns first rated in 1976 to the surviving members of the 1976 static pool forms the 1977 static pool. All rating changes that took place are reflected in the newly formed 1977 static pool through the ratings on these entities as of 12:01 a.m. on Jan. 1, 1977. We used the same method to form static pools for 1978-2020.

Consider the following example for annual static pools: A sovereign is originally rated 'BB' in mid-1986 and is downgraded to 'B' in 1988. This is followed by a default in 1993. We would include this hypothetical issuer in the 1987 and 1988 pools with the 'BB' rating, which was the rating at the beginning of those years. Likewise, it would be included in the 1989-1993 pools with the 'B' rating. Yet each of the seven pools in which this sovereign was included (1987-1993) would record its 1993 default at the appropriate time horizon.

Default rate calculations

Cumulative default rates average the experience of all static pools in a select period of time by calculating marginal weighted average default rates conditional on survival (survivors being nondefaulters) for each possible time horizon and accumulating marginal default rates. We calculate conditional-on-survival default rates by dividing the number of issuers in a static pool that default within a specific time horizon by the number of issuers that survived (did not default) up to that point in time. In the context of sovereign ratings, we treat the defaults of governments that selectively default as complete defaults.

Transition analysis

Transition rates compare issuer credit ratings at the beginning of a period with the ratings at the end of the period. To compute one-year rating transition rates by rating category, we compared the rating on each entity at the end of a particular year with the rating at the beginning of the same year. An issuer that remained rated for more than one year was counted as many times as the number of years it was rated.

For instance, an issuer continually rated from the middle of 1984 to the middle of 1991 would appear in the seven consecutive one-year transition matrices from 1985 to 1991. If the rating on the issuer was withdrawn in the middle of 1991, it would be included in the column representing transitions to NR in the 1991 transition matrix. Similarly, if it defaulted in the middle of 1991, it would be included in the column representing transitions to 'D' in the 1991 one-year transition matrix.

All 1975 static pool members still rated on Jan. 1, 2020, had 45 one-year transitions, while sovereigns first rated on Jan. 1, 2019, had only one. Table 1 displays the summary of one-year transitions in the investment-grade and speculative-grade rating categories. Each one-year transition matrix displays all rating movements between letter categories from the beginning of the year through year-end. For each rating listed in the matrix's leftmost column, there are nine ratios listed in the rows, corresponding to the ratings from 'AAA' to 'SD', plus an entry for NR.

The only ratings considered in these calculations are those on entities at the beginning of each static pool and those at the end. All rating changes that occur in between are ignored. For example, if an entity was rated 'A' on Jan. 1, 2015, and was downgraded to 'BBB' in the middle of the year and then upgraded to 'A' later in the year (with no other subsequent rating changes), this entity would be included only in the percentage of issuers that began the year at 'A' that ended the year at 'A'. This also applies to transition matrices that span longer time horizons. If an issuer defaults, we consider the rating as of Dec. 31 of that particular year to be 'D'. Similarly, if we withdraw our rating on an issuer, the methodology considers the issuer as of Dec. 31 of that year to be not rated.

Multiyear transitions

Multiyear transitions were also calculated for periods of two to 15 years. In this case, we compared the rating at the beginning of the multiyear period with the rating at the end. For example, three-year transition matrices were the result of comparing ratings at the beginning of the years 1975-2018 with the ratings at the end of the years 1977-2020. Otherwise, the methodology was identical to that used for single-year transitions.

We calculated average transition matrices on the basis of the multiyear matrices described. These average matrices are a true summary, the ratios of which represent the historical incidence of the ratings listed in the first column changing to the ones listed in the top row over the course of the multiyear period. Transition matrices that present averages over multiple time horizons are also calculated as issuer-weighted averages.

For inclusion in the matrix, the issuer must be in at least one year. In the case of the three-year matrix, we must have rated the sovereign by Jan. 1, 2018; in the case of the 15-year matrix, we must have rated it by Jan. 1, 2006. Thus, there are progressively fewer observations the longer the transition period is, given the growth of sovereign ratings and, of course, given that there will be fewer static pools for each added set of 12 monthly cohorts in the matrix.

Annualized 12-month cohorts

In past studies, we have also included calculations of sovereigns' rating performance based on annualized 12-month cohorts, where static pools were created with monthly start dates and rating transitions were measured over 12-month increments for each monthly static pool. However, unless otherwise noted in this study, we've utilized an annual static pool methodology to calculate average transition rates, default rates, and Gini ratios.

An annual static pool groups all rated entities as of Jan. 1 of a given year and compares those ratings with those on the entities as of Dec. 31 of the same year (for a one-year horizon). By contrast, an annualized 12-month static pool approach would compare the ratings on entities as of the beginning of each month with the ratings on those entities 12 months later (for a one-year horizon). Transition and default rates calculated with this type of annualized monthly static pool approach can be found in tables in Appendix 4 (see tables 27-44 for transition rates and tables 53-54, 60, and 62-68).

Gini ratios based on this annualized monthly static pool approach diverge somewhat from the Ginis shown in table 2 (which utilize the annual static pool approach). Annualized monthly static pools yield weighted average Gini ratios for foreign currency ratings of 90.9%, 80.3%, 74.7%, and 70.5% over one-, three-, five-, and 10-year horizons, respectively. For local currency ratings, annualized monthly static pools result in weighted average Gini ratios of 83.2%, 71.6%, 64.8%, and 56.9% over one-, three-, five-, and 10-year horizons, respectively.

Rating modifiers

Our calculations of the upgrade and downgrade percentages, as well as the magnitude of rating changes, consider the specific rating as opposed to the rating category (for example, 'A-', 'A', and 'A+' rather than the 'A' rating category). However, for practical reasons, some transition tables may use rating categories. Doing so means that actions such as a downgrade to 'AA-' from 'AA' or an upgrade to 'BBB+' from 'BBB-' are not considered to be transitions because the ratings remained within the same rating category.

Appendix 4: Additional Exhibits

Transition rates

Table 27

Sovereign Foreign Currency Average One-Year Transition Rates (1975-2020)
(%) --Rating one year later--
From/to AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC/CC SD NR
AAA 96.72 3.20 0.01 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 2.31 93.87 2.74 0.31 0.27 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.46
A 0.00 4.01 90.38 5.02 0.37 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22
BBB 0.00 0.00 4.93 90.27 4.21 0.43 0.14 0.00 0.02
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.20 86.63 6.03 0.55 0.45 0.13
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 4.88 87.90 3.16 3.01 1.04
CCC/CC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 29.30 31.42 39.28 0.00
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 12-month cohort between 1975 and 2020 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 28

Sovereign Foreign Currency Average Three-Year Transition Rates (1975-2020)
(%) --Rating three years later--
From/to AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC/CC SD NR
AAA 90.20 8.67 0.09 0.16 0.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.45
AA 7.32 82.15 7.60 2.06 0.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.57
A 0.00 11.14 72.54 13.11 1.82 0.11 0.30 0.49 0.49
BBB 0.00 0.00 15.81 70.29 11.08 1.16 0.26 1.04 0.36
BB 0.00 0.00 0.22 18.03 64.13 13.85 0.76 2.35 0.67
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.29 12.32 71.59 3.62 9.00 3.18
CCC/CC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.98 26.65 12.22 60.15 0.00
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 36-month cohort between 1975 and 2020 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 29

Sovereign Foreign Currency Average Five-Year Transition Rates (1975-2020)
(%) --Rating five years later--
From/to AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC/CC SD NR
AAA 84.34 13.17 0.14 0.88 0.83 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.64
AA 12.77 71.21 12.47 2.24 0.69 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.62
A 0.00 17.70 56.58 19.91 3.16 0.14 0.33 1.65 0.53
BBB 0.00 0.04 23.52 56.06 14.50 2.31 0.38 2.24 0.94
BB 0.00 0.00 1.58 22.05 53.24 16.09 1.20 4.62 1.22
B 0.00 0.00 0.04 2.78 15.03 60.03 3.03 14.32 4.77
CCC/CC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.58 5.49 21.97 9.54 62.43 0.00
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 60-month cohort between 1975 and 2020 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 30

Sovereign Foreign Currency Average 10-Year Transition Rates (1975-2020)
(%) --Rating 10 years later--
From/to AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC/CC SD NR
AAA 72.78 22.18 1.21 1.28 0.51 0.54 0.00 0.00 1.50
AA 25.11 52.48 14.19 5.99 2.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A 1.62 24.18 41.01 19.45 5.99 1.26 0.41 5.43 0.65
BBB 0.00 4.00 31.51 39.31 14.69 1.97 0.50 5.20 2.83
BB 0.00 0.00 4.93 33.13 32.22 16.40 1.24 11.03 1.05
B 0.00 0.00 0.06 5.88 23.10 39.82 1.40 24.16 5.58
CCC/CC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.29 17.70 0.41 78.60 0.00
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 120-month cohort between 1975 and 2020 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 31

Sovereign Foreign Currency Average 15-Year Transition Rates (1975-2020)
(%) --Rating 15 years later--
From/to AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC/CC SD NR
AAA 67.62 28.22 1.24 0.00 0.47 0.84 0.00 0.00 1.61
AA 33.84 37.22 13.36 11.85 2.99 0.31 0.23 0.19 0.00
A 4.39 29.06 38.02 14.72 1.84 3.07 0.71 8.21 0.00
BBB 0.00 10.86 36.02 22.21 14.68 3.19 0.68 8.26 4.10
BB 0.00 0.00 5.48 44.78 21.06 12.49 0.30 15.88 0.00
B 0.00 0.00 0.12 11.47 18.64 35.30 0.48 32.80 1.19
CCC/CC 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.26 0.00 8.55 0.00 86.18 0.00
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 180-month cohort between 1975 and 2020 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 32

Sovereign Local Currency Average One-Year Transition Rates (1993-2020)
(%) --Rating one year later--
From/to AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC/CC SD NR
AAA 95.95 4.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 1.36 92.34 4.91 0.84 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.55
A 0.00 2.91 90.22 6.17 0.34 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.20
BBB 0.00 0.00 4.80 88.43 6.08 0.57 0.11 0.00 0.02
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.33 85.25 7.69 0.91 0.66 0.17
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.19 88.58 3.14 1.72 1.37
CCC/CC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 41.23 46.49 12.28 0.00
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 12-month cohort between 1993 and 2020 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 33

Sovereign Local Currency Average Five-Year Transition Rates (1993-2020)
(%) --Rating five years later--
From/to AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC/CC SD NR
AAA 80.59 17.35 0.16 1.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.81
AA 6.23 64.10 24.45 3.76 0.68 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.77
A 0.00 13.14 58.37 20.06 4.82 0.61 0.32 1.60 1.08
BBB 0.00 0.00 18.85 52.63 20.75 5.05 0.72 1.55 0.45
BB 0.00 0.00 1.55 19.62 45.84 26.09 2.11 3.19 1.61
B 0.00 0.00 0.23 2.30 18.16 63.01 4.49 5.59 6.22
CCC/CC 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.91 3.37 51.84 11.35 28.53 0.00
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 60-month cohort between 1993 and 2020 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 34

Sovereign Local Currency Average 15-Year Transition Rates (1993-2020)
(%) --Rating 15 years later--
From/to AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC/CC SD NR
AAA 64.95 26.41 3.68 2.10 0.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.33
AA 3.15 32.45 31.58 22.00 3.77 1.79 1.42 3.83 0.00
A 2.45 23.08 34.62 11.75 10.03 4.75 0.31 8.56 4.44
BBB 0.00 2.60 23.08 40.23 21.35 7.81 0.00 4.94 0.00
BB 0.00 0.00 7.24 26.55 34.51 21.48 0.40 9.81 0.00
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 15.10 16.46 50.53 5.13 10.84 1.94
CCC/CC 0.00 0.00 0.00 13.95 27.13 10.08 6.98 41.86 0.00
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 180-month cohort between 1993 and 2020 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 35

Sovereign Foreign Currency Average One-Year Transition Rates With Rating Modifier (1975-2020)
(%) --Rating one year later--
From/to AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC+ CCC CCC- CC SD NR
AAA 96.72 2.76 0.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA+ 6.54 83.65 6.70 1.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.31
AA 0.00 5.87 85.27 6.90 0.54 0.43 0.11 0.54 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA- 0.00 0.00 8.67 82.20 7.28 0.20 0.60 0.20 0.00 0.20 0.53 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A+ 0.00 0.00 0.08 14.59 72.62 8.31 2.36 1.06 0.16 0.73 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.21 12.31 77.70 5.55 1.31 0.81 1.01 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.96 11.73 76.85 6.99 0.43 1.60 0.69 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.59
BBB+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.44 13.98 69.61 10.38 2.51 0.68 0.27 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07
BBB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.01 17.84 67.45 10.40 0.95 0.12 0.00 0.53 0.24 0.12 0.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BBB- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.99 15.85 74.37 5.79 2.26 0.29 0.08 0.16 0.12 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BB+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.55 21.00 65.87 10.13 0.98 0.18 0.06 0.00 0.18 0.37 0.00 0.49 0.18 0.00
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.80 14.57 70.86 10.94 1.74 0.70 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.10
BB- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.09 10.76 73.13 11.41 1.26 0.48 0.17 0.13 0.17 0.17 0.95 0.26
B+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.04 0.99 10.88 68.04 15.41 2.67 0.37 0.22 0.15 0.18 0.69 0.33
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.64 14.06 68.95 8.83 1.65 0.86 0.23 0.04 2.41 2.33
B- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.63 16.27 65.57 4.71 1.47 0.80 0.55 7.89 0.12
CCC+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.19 4.26 32.98 30.85 5.67 0.71 0.00 22.34 0.00
CCC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.88 19.23 0.00 21.15 7.69 6.73 42.31 0.00
CCC- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.44 0.00 0.00 4.88 9.76 82.93 0.00
CC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 0.00
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 12-month cohort between 1975 and 2020 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 36

Sovereign Foreign Currency Average Three-Year Transition Rates With Rating Modifier (1975-2020)
(%) --Rating three years later--
From/to AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC+ CCC CCC- CC SD NR
AAA 90.20 6.47 1.42 0.78 0.00 0.04 0.04 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.45
AA+ 19.21 58.88 14.55 4.77 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.52 0.00 0.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.55
AA 0.84 15.31 61.84 15.61 1.73 1.20 1.20 0.84 0.30 0.78 0.00 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA- 0.00 2.83 20.58 50.63 15.29 2.76 3.50 0.22 1.12 2.46 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A+ 0.00 0.00 5.75 29.12 37.79 13.20 2.26 2.17 2.92 2.83 0.94 1.60 0.00 0.19 0.19 0.00 0.28 0.28 0.00 0.00 0.47 0.00
A 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.45 24.47 45.93 8.09 5.39 3.59 3.28 0.90 0.16 0.11 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.32 0.21 0.00
A- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.58 5.11 23.22 49.56 12.36 3.08 1.80 0.35 1.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.81 1.33
BBB+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.99 8.65 21.38 38.99 16.43 9.36 0.79 0.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.55 0.08
BBB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.51 4.12 12.81 19.63 34.36 13.58 7.79 2.06 1.16 1.35 0.32 0.06 0.64 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.42 0.19
BBB- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.10 3.49 10.62 24.68 40.17 9.19 6.34 1.15 0.55 0.69 0.18 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.05 1.06 0.64
BB+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.77 2.17 8.10 33.04 29.91 17.09 4.02 0.96 1.53 0.64 0.38 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.40 0.00
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.53 1.95 9.98 19.01 38.23 19.75 7.13 0.84 0.69 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 1.37 0.48
BB- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.96 4.49 20.54 37.26 15.71 6.91 4.11 1.06 0.10 0.29 0.24 3.96 1.35
B+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.65 1.47 3.47 13.48 39.83 24.51 8.66 0.65 1.31 0.57 0.74 4.08 0.49
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.84 0.44 8.45 18.67 38.97 13.25 1.72 0.66 0.40 0.00 8.67 7.93
B- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.43 1.01 4.34 7.01 30.35 32.88 4.12 0.87 0.14 0.51 18.21 0.14
CCC+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.88 0.88 10.57 14.10 14.98 16.30 4.41 1.32 0.00 36.56 0.00
CCC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.67 0.98 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 82.35 0.00
CCC- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 97.30 0.00
CC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 0.00
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 36-month cohort between 1975 and 2020 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 37

Sovereign Foreign Currency Average Five-Year Transition Rates With Rating Modifier (1975-2020)
(%) --Rating five years later--
From/to AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC+ CCC CCC- CC SD NR
AAA 84.34 8.54 3.05 1.58 0.00 0.09 0.05 0.64 0.00 0.23 0.00 0.83 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.64
AA+ 26.43 43.65 20.17 7.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.66 0.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.63
AA 7.19 15.45 44.93 17.86 6.11 3.09 3.76 0.81 0.40 0.00 0.00 0.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA- 0.59 8.72 23.54 30.57 18.54 4.32 6.52 0.93 1.52 2.71 0.00 2.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A+ 0.00 2.60 11.48 31.85 18.20 11.16 2.28 2.93 6.07 7.04 1.19 1.63 0.00 0.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.00 0.00 3.14 0.00
A 0.00 0.00 1.91 12.94 23.05 31.08 8.19 5.68 5.24 6.61 1.31 1.58 0.11 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.16 0.11 0.00 0.38 1.47 0.00
A- 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.20 6.99 23.87 33.83 14.55 6.92 3.56 1.55 1.55 0.45 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.97 1.49
BBB+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.19 7.16 7.35 20.36 30.63 15.55 12.44 3.58 1.13 0.66 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.66 0.09
BBB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.80 9.66 14.77 17.67 16.91 11.46 9.18 5.66 2.62 1.79 2.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.28 1.86
BBB- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.26 4.98 8.58 15.21 19.68 27.24 10.07 5.65 1.54 0.57 0.98 0.57 0.72 0.10 0.00 0.05 3.08 0.72
BB+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.71 3.76 2.13 18.23 24.54 15.39 17.52 9.08 2.55 0.71 2.27 1.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.91 0.00
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.92 1.67 5.24 13.12 16.51 30.55 17.26 9.26 1.09 0.46 0.00 0.00 0.69 0.12 2.59 0.52
BB- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.86 1.14 4.54 8.27 22.00 21.14 12.86 8.38 7.84 0.43 0.97 0.00 0.16 8.59 2.81
B+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.37 0.55 3.32 1.24 2.49 12.76 30.26 24.41 10.59 1.47 0.83 0.23 0.69 9.03 1.66
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.15 1.37 0.46 2.24 12.58 16.75 28.00 10.90 0.97 0.25 0.36 0.10 14.97 10.74
B- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.56 1.30 1.11 2.13 8.42 14.71 24.98 17.76 4.44 0.28 0.19 0.19 23.77 0.19
CCC+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.98 0.98 0.00 7.80 5.85 10.24 12.20 4.39 9.76 1.95 0.00 45.85 0.00
CCC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 22.08 1.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 76.62 0.00
CCC- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 96.97 0.00
CC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 0.00
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 60-month cohort between 1975 and 2020 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 38

Sovereign Foreign Currency Average 10-Year Transition Rates With Rating Modifier (1975-2020)
(%) --Rating 10 years later--
From/to AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC+ CCC CCC- CC SD NR
AAA 72.78 12.74 6.62 2.82 0.81 0.11 0.29 1.10 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.51 0.00 0.54 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.50
AA+ 34.81 24.73 26.02 9.86 0.21 0.93 0.71 0.86 0.50 1.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 20.98 22.28 12.44 10.71 18.74 2.16 1.21 1.99 2.16 3.28 0.00 4.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA- 13.35 9.48 8.01 30.71 3.60 10.28 11.08 1.47 2.67 5.74 3.20 0.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A+ 7.01 1.72 18.52 1.19 16.01 9.13 13.49 1.19 11.90 13.10 0.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.35 0.00
A 0.13 1.87 11.43 20.25 13.90 8.89 16.38 7.09 2.07 0.94 0.87 2.54 1.40 2.67 0.20 0.00 0.20 0.27 0.00 0.47 8.42 0.00
A- 0.00 0.00 1.22 12.59 15.02 11.72 18.23 7.47 8.85 10.85 7.73 2.69 0.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.95 1.91
BBB+ 0.00 0.00 1.98 2.83 1.70 14.87 23.37 18.56 2.69 12.18 6.37 5.10 2.12 0.00 2.97 0.85 2.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.27 0.00
BBB 0.00 0.00 0.84 8.17 4.29 12.88 11.94 8.69 10.47 12.67 5.86 7.33 0.63 0.31 0.73 1.47 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.82 8.90
BBB- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.49 18.87 8.43 15.44 13.80 18.49 8.43 4.92 2.54 0.37 0.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.01 0.00
BB+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.16 3.16 7.64 8.79 5.54 20.39 8.17 9.31 12.21 5.10 3.60 5.54 0.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.85 0.00
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.76 0.45 0.00 6.66 15.67 16.50 6.21 13.93 16.20 13.63 2.80 0.83 0.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.83 0.00
BB- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.34 3.23 12.94 9.02 5.87 15.74 8.43 5.70 6.38 5.45 0.60 1.45 0.34 0.34 20.94 3.23
B+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.00 0.00 4.96 4.22 2.88 3.62 8.14 19.82 20.12 7.91 0.89 0.81 0.30 0.07 20.34 5.77
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.08 0.87 2.13 4.35 15.81 17.71 13.68 6.56 0.08 1.11 0.00 0.16 26.32 8.14
B- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.90 1.95 6.17 20.15 15.49 5.11 4.21 17.74 0.00 0.15 0.00 0.00 27.82 0.30
CCC+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.90 13.92 0.00 0.00 0.63 0.00 78.48 0.00
CCC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 40.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 60.00 0.00
CCC- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 0.00
CC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 0.00
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 120-month cohort between 1975 and 2020 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 39

Sovereign Foreign Currency Average 15-Year Transition Rates With Rating Modifier (1975-2020)
(%) --Rating 15 years later--
From/to AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC+ CCC CCC- CC SD NR
AAA 67.62 15.65 7.78 4.79 0.95 0.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.38 0.09 0.47 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.61
AA+ 40.02 18.43 18.67 11.85 3.41 0.73 1.95 3.41 1.38 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 32.15 10.79 4.48 10.45 13.32 1.15 0.23 5.63 8.04 7.92 2.76 2.41 0.00 0.69 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA- 20.81 11.89 2.34 13.59 17.62 9.13 3.18 0.64 9.13 2.12 1.49 5.31 0.00 0.00 0.42 0.00 0.64 0.64 0.00 0.00 1.06 0.00
A+ 9.37 6.92 7.13 12.02 6.31 20.57 14.46 5.30 1.22 10.59 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.11 0.00
A 5.58 3.44 12.93 11.15 8.90 6.88 25.39 8.78 0.12 3.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 13.52 0.00
A- 0.00 0.00 4.71 27.86 21.63 3.56 7.38 8.27 3.18 4.45 3.18 0.89 0.89 4.83 2.67 0.76 1.91 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.82 0.00
BBB+ 0.00 0.00 5.82 19.31 11.90 16.93 17.20 13.49 2.12 1.06 2.38 1.32 3.17 0.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.50 0.00
BBB 0.00 0.00 9.45 9.75 14.33 7.24 13.74 5.91 2.95 5.17 2.36 9.01 3.55 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.20 10.34
BBB- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.25 12.89 16.63 12.11 4.92 12.70 8.76 7.68 0.98 0.10 1.48 4.63 0.59 0.10 0.00 0.69 11.02 1.48
BB+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.21 8.78 0.00 12.48 18.66 27.85 2.47 0.69 1.78 3.02 4.66 2.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.21 0.00
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.13 11.49 14.41 28.60 0.45 7.88 10.47 9.23 4.50 1.01 0.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.02 0.00
BB- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.06 0.00 0.00 11.31 4.11 1.47 7.20 11.01 23.05 6.02 3.08 3.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 27.46 0.00
B+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.29 0.00 0.00 2.48 3.65 6.42 7.45 10.07 4.38 20.58 4.23 5.40 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 34.89 0.00
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.25 5.09 6.24 2.96 2.13 11.82 17.73 8.54 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 36.95 3.28
B- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.42 7.89 4.21 10.53 9.74 12.89 13.16 13.95 0.79 0.79 0.00 0.26 22.37 0.00
CCC+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 91.67 0.00
CCC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.29 32.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 53.57 0.00
CCC- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 0.00
CC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 0.00
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 180-month cohort between 1975 and 2020 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 40

Sovereign Local Currency Average One-Year Transition Rates With Rating Modifier (1993-2020)
(%) --Rating one year later--
From/to AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC+ CCC CCC- CC SD NR
AAA 95.95 2.81 1.12 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA+ 5.05 80.82 8.66 3.03 0.17 0.00 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.02
AA 0.00 2.69 85.43 8.78 0.64 0.64 0.82 0.99 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA- 0.00 0.00 5.27 81.73 10.60 0.27 0.80 1.13 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A+ 0.00 0.00 0.74 8.12 76.08 10.89 2.52 0.98 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.12 0.00 0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.66 11.35 73.46 10.91 2.58 0.77 0.16 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.36 14.23 71.01 10.53 1.15 1.30 0.63 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.57
BBB+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.01 10.87 70.59 11.27 3.66 1.30 0.62 0.17 0.00 0.23 0.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06
BBB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.23 11.97 70.91 13.35 1.30 0.77 0.23 0.00 0.15 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BBB- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 1.49 12.54 71.40 9.79 2.81 0.66 0.66 0.18 0.18 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.00
BB+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 1.06 14.04 67.95 11.86 3.48 0.00 0.56 0.00 0.12 0.25 0.00 0.43 0.19 0.00
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.63 15.75 62.46 14.11 2.35 1.65 1.02 0.47 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.41 0.16
BB- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.19 8.35 72.52 12.41 2.60 0.76 0.38 0.65 0.00 0.27 0.54 0.33
B+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.32 1.32 10.99 67.99 15.60 2.64 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.55 0.41
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.16 1.22 11.72 70.60 9.92 1.67 0.37 0.00 0.08 1.22 3.02
B- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.76 2.73 15.41 68.04 6.02 1.52 0.19 1.08 4.12 0.13
CCC+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.37 5.90 40.22 39.85 7.01 1.48 0.74 4.43 0.00
CCC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.70 36.04 1.80 24.32 10.81 3.60 20.72 0.00
CCC- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.78 0.00 0.00 83.33 0.00 13.89 0.00
CC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 31.58 15.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.53 42.11 0.00
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 12-month cohort between 1993 and 2020 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 41

Sovereign Local Currency Average Three-Year Transition Rates With Rating Modifier (1993-2020)
(%) --Rating three years later--
From/to AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC+ CCC CCC- CC SD NR
AAA 87.54 7.64 3.32 0.65 0.00 0.06 0.04 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.56
AA+ 14.41 52.20 11.13 13.94 0.28 1.50 1.31 2.15 0.00 0.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.53
AA 0.91 4.41 68.46 17.26 1.88 1.62 2.34 1.10 1.17 0.84 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA- 0.00 0.90 14.29 48.50 23.01 4.59 5.34 2.03 0.30 1.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A+ 0.00 0.00 2.43 20.49 43.06 19.00 7.28 2.09 1.95 0.07 0.47 1.15 0.00 0.00 0.13 1.15 0.20 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.34 0.00
A 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.65 18.58 43.83 15.46 10.74 5.25 1.47 1.00 0.18 0.12 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.35 0.24 0.00
A- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.58 9.51 24.42 37.94 13.40 4.06 3.83 0.35 2.96 0.35 0.00 0.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.81 1.39
BBB+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.60 6.05 18.92 37.67 13.54 10.76 6.11 1.21 0.60 0.00 0.73 0.97 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.12 0.42 0.18
BBB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.54 5.73 19.25 39.12 17.82 12.44 2.33 1.07 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.27 1.25
BBB- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.23 1.37 4.79 18.33 42.13 13.34 6.50 4.99 1.23 3.21 0.75 0.41 0.00 0.00 0.07 1.64 0.00
BB+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.06 3.44 9.12 16.59 39.72 18.11 8.33 0.20 1.59 0.66 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.19 0.00
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.38 3.10 9.22 19.48 19.48 21.98 9.83 1.98 9.31 1.47 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.98 0.78
BB- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.93 3.02 2.90 12.72 39.38 19.63 9.88 4.32 1.23 1.23 0.00 0.56 2.47 1.73
B+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.31 0.42 1.46 2.71 14.58 43.28 24.43 7.71 0.83 0.83 0.00 0.16 1.46 1.82
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.29 1.21 2.38 8.40 15.68 41.99 14.32 2.67 1.21 0.24 0.19 3.20 8.20
B- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.39 0.55 3.43 3.43 4.68 28.57 40.59 5.85 0.94 0.16 1.33 9.91 0.16
CCC+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.16 0.87 0.87 8.23 25.97 27.71 14.29 4.33 2.60 0.00 12.99 0.00
CCC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.92 0.00 4.81 1.92 21.15 15.38 0.00 0.00 27.88 0.00 26.92 0.00
CCC- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 75.00 0.00 12.50 0.00
CC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 25.71 25.71 11.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 37.14 0.00
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 36-month cohort between 1993 and 2020 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 42

Sovereign Local Currency Average Five-Year Transition Rates With Rating Modifier (1993-2020)
(%) --Rating five years later--
From/to AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC+ CCC CCC- CC SD NR
AAA 80.59 11.12 4.98 1.24 0.00 0.12 0.04 0.81 0.00 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.81
AA+ 17.79 37.13 10.13 19.75 1.76 3.41 1.45 2.07 2.59 1.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.79
AA 2.99 3.13 56.19 17.84 8.51 3.43 5.37 0.90 0.45 1.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA- 0.58 2.40 17.16 27.69 26.87 9.95 9.87 2.24 0.00 1.24 0.00 1.99 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A+ 0.00 0.00 6.73 25.52 26.04 17.01 9.84 4.66 3.70 1.85 0.00 1.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.26 0.00 0.15 0.00 0.00 2.14 0.00
A 0.00 0.00 0.88 5.92 12.29 34.47 16.19 8.82 8.25 5.61 1.51 2.39 0.50 0.00 0.44 0.00 0.19 0.13 0.00 0.44 1.70 0.25
A- 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.60 15.29 21.30 21.90 13.42 7.74 5.01 4.27 2.47 1.87 0.07 0.00 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 2.94
BBB+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.31 9.24 17.41 21.20 11.69 13.95 9.24 2.13 1.66 0.47 2.66 1.13 0.00 0.13 0.00 0.13 0.47 0.20
BBB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.11 8.16 19.32 26.21 12.43 15.44 5.73 5.44 2.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.29 1.36
BBB- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 3.31 1.82 4.46 15.79 35.04 13.88 5.54 5.95 2.40 2.40 3.39 0.83 0.99 0.00 0.08 3.97 0.00
BB+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.81 5.25 11.09 15.01 32.77 13.83 12.50 0.30 0.22 2.37 1.18 0.96 0.00 0.15 1.55 0.00
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.54 4.32 9.31 9.50 16.31 8.35 12.76 17.18 2.69 14.59 0.38 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.21 0.86
BB- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.36 0.93 2.28 2.49 0.93 11.40 26.99 20.23 12.32 9.69 1.42 1.64 0.00 0.14 5.48 3.70
B+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.43 0.00 0.61 1.58 1.64 5.42 11.56 31.83 29.28 9.98 1.16 0.97 0.73 0.00 1.22 3.59
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.17 1.14 1.43 0.68 4.28 14.55 14.55 27.61 15.86 1.60 0.23 0.57 0.00 5.25 11.92
B- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.63 0.53 0.53 2.32 5.38 7.17 9.81 26.79 21.62 8.02 0.53 0.95 1.69 13.82 0.21
CCC+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.31 0.93 0.93 0.00 3.70 6.48 25.93 19.91 4.17 4.63 2.78 0.46 27.78 0.00
CCC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.22 9.76 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.44 43.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 13.41 0.00 29.27 0.00
CCC- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 0.00
CC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.69 61.54 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 30.77 0.00
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 60-month cohort between 1993 and 2020 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 43

Sovereign Local Currency Average 10-Year Transition Rates With Rating Modifier (1993-2020)
(%) --Rating 10 years later--
From/to AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC+ CCC CCC- CC SD NR
AAA 72.67 13.53 5.00 3.11 1.52 0.14 0.38 1.45 0.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.97
AA+ 6.20 15.26 25.12 9.06 10.33 10.81 1.59 6.36 4.29 10.97 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 3.88 4.49 29.08 14.49 23.27 6.12 5.61 2.45 2.55 3.88 0.00 4.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA- 8.13 0.13 8.00 35.38 11.38 5.50 12.13 2.50 2.13 7.38 5.50 0.63 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.00 0.38 0.38 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.00
A+ 0.16 2.29 19.61 13.81 10.29 12.01 12.50 6.37 7.84 3.51 4.74 0.90 0.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.23 0.00
A 0.00 0.00 4.56 7.16 7.96 18.16 18.07 5.90 4.92 3.31 0.72 6.71 2.42 3.58 0.45 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.63 9.66 5.72
A- 0.00 0.00 1.31 5.71 4.03 20.97 20.69 10.49 5.81 9.55 9.46 1.50 0.37 0.00 1.97 0.56 0.56 0.84 0.00 0.19 1.97 4.03
BBB+ 0.00 0.00 0.73 3.21 17.25 13.49 5.69 2.84 11.93 10.28 17.34 7.98 5.69 1.47 0.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.83 0.00
BBB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.70 6.97 0.00 16.56 12.54 40.56 2.32 1.24 8.36 5.88 2.63 0.77 0.46 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BBB- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.29 0.43 2.89 7.09 18.96 28.22 1.59 2.60 6.66 1.45 7.53 10.71 0.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.14 0.00
BB+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.59 4.62 13.18 11.21 9.64 15.73 12.98 15.44 7.47 2.95 2.75 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.34 0.00
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.31 0.79 2.63 4.47 13.27 3.55 12.61 0.53 14.19 12.48 14.32 11.56 2.89 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.39 0.00
BB- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.57 10.13 0.29 3.57 3.42 7.56 23.25 15.98 9.56 1.00 3.00 5.99 0.29 7.99 5.42
B+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.81 3.14 1.28 3.61 1.63 7.92 27.71 17.93 18.74 1.51 0.93 0.00 0.00 3.03 11.76
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.57 3.43 3.91 1.33 4.86 22.50 12.96 12.68 13.35 1.05 0.95 0.00 1.33 12.30 8.77
B- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.08 0.76 6.44 10.98 21.02 5.68 0.76 9.28 18.56 1.52 0.19 0.00 0.00 22.35 0.38
CCC+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.91 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.34 32.03 0.00 0.00 0.78 2.34 58.59 0.00
CCC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 15.00 0.00 3.33 0.00 1.67 26.67 3.33 28.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 21.67 0.00
CCC- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 0.00
CC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.53 0.00 0.00 5.26 78.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.26 0.00
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 120-month cohort between 1993 and 2020 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 44

Sovereign Local Currency Average 15-Year Transition Rates With Rating Modifier (1993-2020)
(%) --Rating 15 years later--
From/to AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC+ CCC CCC- CC SD NR
AAA 64.95 16.15 7.50 2.76 2.50 0.76 0.43 1.55 0.00 0.56 0.00 0.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.33
AA+ 0.20 5.48 18.00 7.24 12.13 15.66 7.44 13.89 5.48 10.18 1.37 0.39 0.00 0.00 0.39 0.00 0.59 0.59 0.00 0.00 0.98 0.00
AA 2.61 5.22 15.17 15.82 17.13 3.59 9.14 0.33 11.42 10.11 3.92 3.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.12 0.00
AA- 6.88 8.10 9.72 11.74 24.70 0.61 4.66 6.28 8.10 0.00 0.00 1.42 0.00 0.00 4.25 1.21 1.21 1.82 0.00 0.40 8.91 0.00
A+ 7.44 4.59 26.58 11.08 1.58 8.39 18.35 6.80 0.00 3.16 4.11 0.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.12 0.00
A 0.00 0.00 3.86 9.27 2.12 12.74 10.62 4.63 4.63 3.67 6.18 5.41 2.12 7.14 0.77 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.42 16.41
A- 0.00 0.00 1.83 12.16 10.07 16.73 19.22 6.54 2.48 3.40 7.45 3.14 1.18 0.52 1.31 4.71 0.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.50 0.00
BBB+ 0.00 0.00 3.45 1.46 5.17 20.29 14.19 3.71 12.33 14.46 6.63 9.81 5.31 1.72 0.00 1.46 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BBB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.10 2.54 10.42 22.25 42.54 4.23 2.25 0.00 8.45 0.85 3.38 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BBB- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.51 0.00 0.00 6.92 3.59 3.85 19.74 6.92 4.62 22.56 4.87 7.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 18.97 0.00
BB+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 15.81 6.48 12.00 16.57 2.67 16.00 11.62 5.14 1.71 3.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.57 0.00
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.18 7.35 12.09 3.32 3.79 20.14 18.01 10.43 6.87 10.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.95 4.98 0.00
BB- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.68 9.46 2.36 5.07 8.78 13.85 8.78 11.82 7.43 12.50 0.34 0.00 0.00 0.00 18.92 0.00
B+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.60 10.71 4.87 1.30 3.90 32.47 20.13 13.31 0.00 0.00 1.62 0.00 9.09 0.00
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.33 9.61 2.84 1.53 3.49 13.54 20.31 20.96 0.66 0.87 2.62 0.44 12.45 4.37
B- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.99 9.74 23.60 7.49 7.49 13.86 0.00 11.61 0.00 1.12 4.87 4.12 10.11 0.00
CCC+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.58 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.58 3.03 0.00 3.03 78.79 0.00
CCC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 22.73 2.27 0.00 38.64 4.55 0.00 9.09 20.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.27 0.00
CCC- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
CC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 84.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.26 0.00
Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 180-month cohort between 1993 and 2020 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 45

Sovereign Foreign Currency Ratings One-Year Transition Matrix (2020)
(%) --Rating one year later--
From/to AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC+ CCC CCC- CC SD NR
AAA 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0
AA+ 0.00 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0
AA 0.00 0.00 85.71 14.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0
AA- 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0
A+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0
A 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 40.00 40.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0
A- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 80.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0
BBB+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 55.56 22.22 22.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0
BBB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 87.50 12.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0
BBB- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0
BB+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 66.67 0.00 33.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 60.00 20.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0
BB- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 90.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0
B+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 91.67 8.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 62.50 25.00 6.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.25 0
B- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 60.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.00 0
CCC+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 66.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 33.33 0
CCC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 0
CCC- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0
CC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 0
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 46

Sovereign Foreign Currency Ratings Three-Year Transition Matrix (2018-2020)
(%) --Rating three years later--
From/to AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC+ CCC CCC- CC SD NR
AAA 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA+ 0.00 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 0.00 85.71 14.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA- 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 37.50 62.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 50.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 28.57 0.00 42.86 14.29 0.00 14.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BBB+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.11 11.11 44.44 11.11 22.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BBB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.00 80.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BBB- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 40.00 60.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BB+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 25.00 0.00 25.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.50 12.50 12.50 25.00 37.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BB- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 25.00 62.50 0.00 12.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
B+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.33 58.33 0.00 16.67 8.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.33 0.00
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 15.38 46.15 23.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 15.38 0.00
B- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.09 0.00 27.27 27.27 9.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 27.27 0.00
CCC+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 25.00 50.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 25.00 0.00
CCC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
CCC- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
CC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 47

Sovereign Foreign Currency Ratings 10-Year Transition Matrix (2011-2020)
(%) --Rating 10 years later--
From/to AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC+ CCC CCC- CC SD NR
AAA 57.89 21.05 10.53 5.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.26
AA+ 0.00 0.00 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 0.00 16.67 33.33 33.33 16.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA- 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 25.00 0.00 25.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 66.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 33.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A 0.00 0.00 8.33 33.33 0.00 0.00 16.67 0.00 8.33 8.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.33 0.00
A- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 33.33 33.33 16.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.67
BBB+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 33.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 66.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BBB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 33.33 33.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.67
BBB- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.00 0.00 10.00 20.00 40.00 0.00 0.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.00 0.00
BB+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 33.33 16.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.67 0.00
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.00 30.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.00 0.00
BB- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.29 14.29 14.29 14.29 14.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.29 14.29
B+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.76 0.00 17.65 23.53 11.76 11.76 0.00 0.00 0.00 17.65 5.88
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.00 20.00 10.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 30.00 0.00
B- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 60.00 0.00
CCC+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
CCC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
CCC- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
CC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 48  |  View Expanded Table

Sovereign Foreign Currency Ratings Original-To-Last Transition Matrix
(%)
From/to Total AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC+ SD NR
AAA 20 50.00 15.00 15.00 5.00 5.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.00 5.00
AA+ 3 0.00 0.00 33.33 33.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 33.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 5 20.00 0.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA- 2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 0.00
A+ 3 0.00 33.33 33.33 33.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A 9 0.00 0.00 0.00 22.22 0.00 11.11 33.33 11.11 11.11 11.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A- 8 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.50 25.00 0.00 12.50 0.00 0.00 12.50 12.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.50 12.50
BBB+ 2 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BBB 8 0.00 0.00 0.00 25.00 37.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.50 0.00
BBB- 10 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 40.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 10.00 10.00
BB+ 6 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 16.67 16.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.67 0.00
BB 10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.00 10.00 0.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 30.00 10.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 20.00 0.00
BB- 16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.25 0.00 0.00 6.25 0.00 12.50 0.00 6.25 18.75 6.25 0.00 6.25 0.00 31.25 6.25
B+ 22 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.55 4.55 4.55 22.73 18.18 13.64 9.09 18.18 4.55
B 18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.11 5.56 22.22 5.56 0.00 33.33 16.67
B- 23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.35 4.35 0.00 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 21.74 4.35 47.83 0.00
CCC+ 11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.09 9.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.09 0.00 9.09 36.36 27.27 0.00
CCC 2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 0.00
CCC- 1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 0.00
CC 2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 0.00
Original-to-last transition rates compare the issuer credit rating from the time of first rating to the last rating, regardless of the time elapsed in the interim. Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 49  |  View Expanded Table

Sovereign Local Currency Ratings One-Year Transition Matrix (2020)
(%) --Rating one year later--
From/to AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC+ SD NR
AAA 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA+ 0.00 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 0.00 85.71 14.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA- 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 28.57 57.14 14.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 66.67 33.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BBB+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 16.67 33.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BBB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 90.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BBB- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BB+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 25.00 25.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 80.00 0.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BB- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 90.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
B+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 90.91 9.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 62.50 25.00 6.25 0.00 0.00
B- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 63.64 27.27 9.09 0.00
CCC+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 0.00 0.00
CCC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
CCC- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
CC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 0.00
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 50

Sovereign Local Currency Ratings Three-Year Transition Matrix (2018-2020)
(%) --Rating three years later--
From/to AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC+ CCC CCC- CC SD NR
AAA 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA+ 0.00 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 0.00 85.71 14.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA- 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 42.86 57.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 66.67 33.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.00 10.00 40.00 20.00 0.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BBB+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.00 0.00 40.00 0.00 40.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BBB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.67 83.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BBB- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 50.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BB+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 40.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.29 14.29 28.57 14.29 28.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BB- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 28.57 57.14 0.00 14.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
B+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.33 58.33 0.00 16.67 8.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.33 0.00
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 15.38 46.15 23.08 0.00 0.00 7.69 7.69 0.00 0.00
B- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.69 0.00 23.08 30.77 23.08 0.00 0.00 7.69 7.69 0.00
CCC+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 50.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
CCC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 0.00
CCC- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
CC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 51

Sovereign Local Currency Ratings 10-Year Transition Matrix (2011-2020)
(%) --Rating 10 years later--
From/to AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC+ CCC CCC- CC SD NR
AAA 55.00 25.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.00
AA+ 0.00 0.00 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 0.00 14.29 42.86 28.57 14.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA- 0.00 0.00 0.00 60.00 20.00 0.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A+ 0.00 0.00 28.57 0.00 14.29 14.29 0.00 0.00 14.29 14.29 0.00 14.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A 0.00 0.00 0.00 18.18 0.00 9.09 18.18 18.18 9.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 18.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.09 0.00
A- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 40.00
BBB+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.29 0.00 28.57 28.57 0.00 0.00 28.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BBB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 33.33 33.33 0.00 0.00 33.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BBB- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 22.22 44.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.11 11.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.11 0.00
BB+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.11 0.00 0.00 11.11 11.11 0.00 11.11 11.11 22.22 0.00 11.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.11 0.00
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 20.00 0.00 20.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.00 0.00
BB- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.00 0.00 10.00 10.00 20.00 10.00 10.00 0.00 10.00 10.00 0.00 10.00
B+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.67 0.00 25.00 25.00 16.67 8.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.33
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 27.27 18.18 9.09 18.18 9.09 0.00 0.00 9.09 9.09 0.00
B- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 25.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 75.00 0.00
CCC+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
CCC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
CCC- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
CC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 52  |  View Expanded Table

Sovereign Local Currency Ratings Original-To-Last Transition Matrix
(%)
From/to Total AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC+ SD NR
AAA 25 44.00 16.00 12.00 8.00 4.00 4.00 0.00 0.00 8.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00
AA+ 6 0.00 0.00 0.00 33.33 0.00 33.33 16.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.67 0.00
AA 7 0.00 0.00 42.86 28.57 14.29 0.00 14.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA- 4 0.00 0.00 0.00 25.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 25.00 25.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 25.00 0.00
A+ 6 0.00 16.67 0.00 16.67 0.00 0.00 16.67 16.67 33.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A 5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.00 0.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.00
A- 11 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.09 9.09 9.09 0.00 9.09 9.09 18.18 0.00 0.00 9.09 0.00 9.09 0.00 0.00 9.09 9.09
BBB+ 8 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.50 25.00 0.00 0.00 12.50 0.00 25.00 0.00 12.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.50 0.00
BBB 4 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 25.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BBB- 7 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.29 0.00 0.00 42.86 0.00 14.29 0.00 14.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.29 0.00
BB+ 8 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.50 0.00 12.50 0.00 0.00
BB 9 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.11 22.22 11.11 11.11 22.22 0.00 11.11 0.00
BB- 6 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 33.33 16.67 0.00 0.00 16.67 16.67 16.67
B+ 19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.26 5.26 15.79 15.79 15.79 10.53 10.53 5.26 10.53
B 15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.67 33.33 13.33 0.00 20.00 13.33
B- 12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.33 8.33 0.00 33.33 8.33 33.33 0.00
CCC+ 6 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.67 0.00 16.67 16.67 33.33 0.00
CCC 3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 33.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 33.33 0.00 33.33 0.00
CCC- 1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 0.00
CC 1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 0.00
Original-to-last transition rates compare the issuer credit rating from the time of first rating to the last rating, regardless of the time elapsed in the interim. Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.
Cumulative default rates

Table 53

Sovereign Foreign Currency Cumulative Average Default Rates Without Rating Modifiers (1975-2020)
(%) --Time horizon (years)--
Rating 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.19
A 0.00 0.02 0.48 1.01 1.56 2.13 2.73 3.35 4.01 4.70 5.44 6.25 6.79 7.36 8.20
BBB 0.00 0.48 0.99 1.48 2.01 2.57 3.07 3.40 3.75 4.14 4.56 5.02 5.88 6.84 7.40
BB 0.45 1.46 2.24 2.89 4.25 5.73 7.31 9.00 10.52 11.55 12.52 13.55 14.37 15.03 15.53
B 3.05 6.75 10.53 14.22 17.11 19.83 22.51 25.08 27.29 29.36 30.94 32.41 34.04 35.78 37.64
CCC/CC 40.93 52.19 58.07 60.51 63.85 70.30 76.00 78.62 78.62 80.15 83.97 86.15 87.12 87.12 87.12
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 54

Sovereign Local Currency Cumulative Average Default Rates Without Rating Modifiers (1993-2020)
(%) --Time horizon (years)--
Rating 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.60 1.16 1.77 2.43 3.15
A 0.00 0.02 0.46 0.96 1.49 2.05 2.63 3.25 3.90 4.82 5.56 6.38 7.28 8.29 9.39
BBB 0.00 0.44 0.76 1.05 1.36 1.70 2.40 2.86 3.29 3.37 3.37 3.37 3.37 3.37 3.37
BB 0.65 1.34 1.75 2.13 2.75 3.41 3.96 4.72 5.40 5.86 6.37 6.95 7.61 8.37 9.26
B 1.70 3.06 4.45 5.54 6.48 7.53 8.65 9.85 11.16 12.38 12.98 13.59 14.30 15.14 15.29
CCC/CC 11.28 15.00 18.05 21.71 28.87 37.80 42.16 45.19 45.19 46.99 51.48 51.48 51.48 51.48 51.48
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 55

Foreign Currency 'A' Static Pools And Default Rates (1992-2020)
(%) --Time horizon (years)--
Date Number of issuers 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
1/1/1992 6 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1/1/1993 6 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1/1/1994 5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1/1/1995 6 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1/1/1996 8 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1/1/1997 9 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1/1/1998 9 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1/1/1999 9 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.11
1/1/2000 11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.09 18.18 18.18
1/1/2001 12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.33 16.67 16.67 16.67
1/1/2002 14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.14 14.29 14.29 14.29 14.29
1/1/2003 17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.88 11.76 11.76 11.76 11.76 11.76
1/1/2004 20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 15.00
1/1/2005 21 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.76 9.52 9.52 9.52 9.52 9.52 9.52 9.52
1/1/2006 21 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.76 9.52 9.52 9.52 9.52 9.52 9.52 9.52 9.52
1/1/2007 23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.35 8.70 8.70 8.70 8.70 8.70 8.70 8.70 8.70
1/1/2008 20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00
1/1/2009 20 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00
1/1/2010 21 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.76 4.76 4.76 4.76 4.76 4.76 4.76 4.76
1/1/2011 21 0.00 0.00 4.76 4.76 4.76 4.76 4.76 4.76 4.76 4.76
1/1/2012 15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1/1/2013 14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1/1/2014 12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1/1/2015 15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1/1/2016 16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1/1/2017 16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1/1/2018 17 0.00 0.00 0.00
1/1/2019 18 0.00 0.00
1/1/2020 15 0.00
Cumulative default rate* 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.77 1.32 1.89 2.48 3.10 3.75 4.43 5.17 5.97 6.83 7.30 8.35
Note: Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. *From the rating category row in table 14. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 56

Foreign Currency 'BBB' Static Pools And Default Rates (1992-2020)
(%) --Time horizon (years)--
Date Number of issuers 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
1/1/1992 2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1/1/1993 6 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.67 16.67 16.67 16.67 16.67 16.67 16.67 16.67 16.67
1/1/1994 8 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.50
1/1/1995 7 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.29 14.29 14.29 14.29 14.29 14.29 14.29 14.29 14.29 14.29 14.29
1/1/1996 4 0.00 0.00 0.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00
1/1/1997 9 0.00 0.00 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11
1/1/1998 16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 12.50
1/1/1999 16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 12.50 12.50
1/1/2000 16 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25
1/1/2001 16 0.00 0.00 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25
1/1/2002 16 0.00 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25
1/1/2003 13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1/1/2004 12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1/1/2005 13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.69 7.69
1/1/2006 13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.69 7.69 7.69
1/1/2007 13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.69 7.69 7.69
1/1/2008 14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.14 7.14 7.14
1/1/2009 17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.88 5.88 5.88
1/1/2010 18 0.00 0.00 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 11.11 11.11 11.11
1/1/2011 19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.26 5.26 5.26
1/1/2012 24 0.00 4.17 4.17 4.17 4.17 4.17 8.33 8.33 8.33
1/1/2013 23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1/1/2014 26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1/1/2015 25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1/1/2016 24 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1/1/2017 22 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1/1/2018 24 0.00 0.00 0.00
1/1/2019 24 0.00 0.00
1/1/2020 27 0.00
Cumulative default rate* 0.00 0.45 1.16 1.66 2.19 2.76 3.37 3.71 4.07 4.47 4.89 5.36 5.86 6.93 7.51
Note: Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. *From the rating category row in table 14. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 57

Foreign Currency 'BB' Static Pools And Default Rates (1992-2020)
(%) --Time horizon (years)--
Date Number of issuers 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
1/1/1992 2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 50.00
1/1/1993 4 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 25.00 25.00 25.00
1/1/1994 6 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.67 16.67 16.67 16.67 33.33 33.33 33.33 33.33
1/1/1995 8 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.50 12.50 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00
1/1/1996 10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.00 10.00 30.00 30.00 30.00 30.00 30.00 30.00 30.00 30.00
1/1/1997 13 0.00 0.00 7.69 7.69 15.38 15.38 30.77 30.77 30.77 30.77 30.77 30.77 30.77 30.77 30.77
1/1/1998 18 0.00 11.11 11.11 16.67 16.67 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22
1/1/1999 18 0.00 0.00 5.56 5.56 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11
1/1/2000 15 0.00 6.67 6.67 6.67 6.67 6.67 6.67 6.67 6.67 6.67 6.67 6.67 6.67 6.67 6.67
1/1/2001 14 7.14 7.14 7.14 7.14 7.14 14.29 14.29 14.29 14.29 14.29 14.29 14.29 14.29 14.29 14.29
1/1/2002 16 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.25 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.50
1/1/2003 17 0.00 5.88 11.76 11.76 11.76 11.76 11.76 11.76 11.76 11.76 11.76 11.76 11.76 11.76 17.65
1/1/2004 17 5.88 5.88 5.88 5.88 5.88 5.88 5.88 5.88 5.88 5.88 5.88 5.88 5.88 11.76 11.76
1/1/2005 19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.26 5.26 5.26
1/1/2006 19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.26 5.26 10.53 10.53 10.53 10.53
1/1/2007 22 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.55 4.55 13.64 13.64 13.64 13.64
1/1/2008 23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.35 4.35 13.04 13.04 13.04 13.04
1/1/2009 23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.70 8.70 8.70 8.70
1/1/2010 23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.70 8.70 8.70 8.70
1/1/2011 23 0.00 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 13.04 13.04 13.04 13.04
1/1/2012 22 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.55 4.55 4.55 9.09
1/1/2013 26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.85 7.69 7.69 11.54
1/1/2014 24 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.17 8.33 8.33 12.50
1/1/2015 20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.00
1/1/2016 21 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.76
1/1/2017 22 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1/1/2018 20 0.00 0.00 0.00
1/1/2019 17 0.00 0.00
1/1/2020 18 0.00
Cumulative default rate* 0.40 1.42 2.06 2.72 4.13 5.60 7.15 9.08 10.55 11.50 12.18 12.92 13.74 14.63 15.13
Note: Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. *From the rating category row in table 14. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 58

Foreign Currency 'B' Static Pools And Default Rates (1995-2020)
(%) --Time horizon (years)--
Date Number of issuers 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
1/1/1995 4 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00
1/1/1996 5 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00
1/1/1997 4 0.00 0.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00
1/1/1998 5 0.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00
1/1/1999 7 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 28.57 28.57 28.57 28.57 28.57 28.57 28.57 28.57 28.57
1/1/2000 14 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.14 7.14 21.43 21.43 21.43 21.43 21.43 28.57 28.57 28.57 28.57 28.57
1/1/2001 19 0.00 5.26 10.53 10.53 21.05 21.05 21.05 26.32 26.32 31.58 31.58 31.58 31.58 31.58 31.58
1/1/2002 15 0.00 6.67 6.67 13.33 13.33 13.33 13.33 13.33 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 26.67 26.67
1/1/2003 16 12.50 12.50 12.50 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 31.25 31.25 31.25
1/1/2004 19 0.00 5.26 10.53 10.53 10.53 10.53 15.79 15.79 15.79 15.79 15.79 21.05 21.05 21.05 21.05
1/1/2005 21 4.76 9.52 9.52 9.52 9.52 14.29 14.29 19.05 19.05 19.05 23.81 28.57 28.57 28.57 28.57
1/1/2006 23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.35 4.35 13.04 13.04 17.39 17.39 21.74 26.09 26.09 26.09 34.78
1/1/2007 25 0.00 4.00 4.00 8.00 8.00 16.00 16.00 20.00 20.00 24.00 24.00 24.00 24.00 32.00
1/1/2008 28 7.14 7.14 10.71 10.71 21.43 21.43 25.00 25.00 28.57 28.57 28.57 28.57 35.71
1/1/2009 28 0.00 3.57 3.57 10.71 10.71 14.29 17.86 21.43 21.43 21.43 21.43 28.57
1/1/2010 27 0.00 0.00 7.41 7.41 11.11 11.11 14.81 14.81 14.81 14.81 22.22
1/1/2011 32 0.00 6.25 9.38 12.50 15.63 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 28.13
1/1/2012 33 6.06 9.09 12.12 15.15 18.18 21.21 21.21 21.21 30.30
1/1/2013 30 3.33 6.67 10.00 13.33 16.67 16.67 16.67 26.67
1/1/2014 32 0.00 3.13 9.38 15.63 15.63 15.63 25.00
1/1/2015 34 0.00 5.88 11.76 14.71 14.71 23.53
1/1/2016 37 5.41 10.81 13.51 13.51 21.62
1/1/2017 37 5.41 8.11 10.81 21.62
1/1/2018 36 0.00 2.78 16.67
1/1/2019 41 2.44 14.63
1/1/2020 38 7.89
Cumulative default rate* 2.61 6.61 10.32 13.69 16.65 19.17 21.89 24.57 26.60 28.51 30.65 32.64 34.00 35.54 37.3
Note: Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. *From the rating category row in table 14. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 59

Foreign Currency 'CCC'/'CC' Static Pools And Default Rates (1999-2020)
(%) --Time horizon (years)--
Date Number of issuers 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
1/1/1999 3 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
1/1/2000 1 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
1/1/2001 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1/1/2002 2 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
1/1/2003 3 0.00 0.00 33.33 33.33 33.33 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67
1/1/2004 2 0.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
1/1/2005 3 33.33 33.33 33.33 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67
1/1/2006 3 33.33 33.33 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67
1/1/2007 1 0.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
1/1/2008 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1/1/2009 1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1/1/2010 3 33.33 33.33 33.33 33.33 33.33 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 100.00
1/1/2011 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1/1/2012 1 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
1/1/2013 2 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
1/1/2014 1 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
1/1/2015 2 50.00 50.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
1/1/2016 2 0.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00
1/1/2017 3 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
1/1/2018 4 25.00 25.00 25.00
1/1/2019 1 0.00 0.00
1/1/2020 5 60.00
Cumulative default rate* 46.51 54.15 62.24 65.68 69.11 76.83 80.69 80.69 80.69 80.69 84.55 84.55 84.55 84.55 84.55
Note: Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. *From the rating category row in table 14. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 60

Sovereign Foreign Currency Cumulative Average Default Rates With Rating Modifiers (1975-2020)
(%) --Time horizon (annualized months)--
Rating 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AAA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
AA+ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
AA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
AA- 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
A+ 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.6 2.9 3.1 3.1 4.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 6.3 7.6
A 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 2.7 4.0 4.9 5.9 7.5 9.1 10.0 11.1 11.7 11.7
A- 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 2.1 2.4 2.6 4.1
BBB+ 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 2.2 3.9 5.8 7.8 9.8 9.8
BBB 0.0 0.6 1.4 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.4 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 4.7 5.1 5.1
BBB- 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.8 4.1 5.3 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 6.6 7.8
BB+ 0.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.7 2.6 3.5 4.5 6.5 7.7 8.8 10.0 11.2 12.7 14.2
BB 0.1 0.7 1.3 2.0 2.4 3.0 3.8 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 5.7 6.8 7.4 7.4
BB- 0.9 2.2 3.7 4.9 7.9 10.7 13.6 16.9 19.7 21.7 23.4 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.3
B+ 0.7 2.3 4.2 7.1 9.4 12.6 16.2 19.8 21.3 23.4 25.4 26.9 28.0 28.7 30.5
B 2.5 5.9 10.5 14.6 18.1 20.3 22.6 25.1 27.7 30.3 31.7 33.5 35.8 37.7 37.7
B- 7.9 15.4 21.3 25.7 28.6 31.4 33.0 33.7 36.6 37.7 38.9 39.9 41.4 44.1 48.1
CCC+ 22.2 27.4 34.1 38.5 44.5 56.1 66.4 71.3 71.3 74.3 81.9 86.7 89.2 89.2 89.2
CCC 49.2 77.1 84.7 84.7 84.7 84.7 84.7 84.7 84.7 84.7 84.7 84.7 84.7 84.7 84.7
CCC- 84.8 97.8 97.8 97.8 97.8 97.8 97.8 97.8 97.8 97.8 97.8 97.8 97.8 97.8 97.8
CC 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Investment grade 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.4
Speculative grade 3.3 6.1 8.6 10.8 13.0 15.3 17.5 19.6 21.4 23.0 24.3 25.6 26.7 27.8 28.9
All rated 1.2 2.3 3.4 4.4 5.3 6.2 7.2 8.1 8.8 9.5 10.1 10.6 11.2 11.7 12.2
Default rates conditional on survival. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 61

Sovereign Foreign Currency Cumulative Average Default Rates With Rating Modifiers (1975-2020)
(%) --Time horizon (months)--
Rating 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
A+ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
A- 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
BBB+ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4
BBB 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6
BBB- 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5
BB+ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
BB 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7
BB- 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.2
B+ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3
B 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.6 5.9
B- 0.3 1.0 1.6 2.1 2.8 3.5 4.3 5.0 5.8 6.4 7.2 7.9 8.6 9.1 9.8 10.5 11.2 11.9 12.5 13.1 13.8 14.4 14.9 15.4
CCC+ 1.5 3.4 5.6 7.9 10.2 12.2 13.9 15.6 17.6 19.7 21.1 22.2 23.3 24.0 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.7 25.5 25.9 26.2 26.6 27.4
CCC 5.1 11.9 19.5 26.3 32.2 36.4 39.8 43.2 44.1 45.8 47.5 49.2 51.7 55.1 57.6 60.2 62.7 65.3 68.6 71.2 72.9 74.6 76.3 77.1
CCC- 19.6 32.6 45.7 54.3 58.7 65.2 69.6 73.9 78.3 80.4 82.6 84.8 87.0 89.1 91.3 93.5 95.7 97.8 97.8 97.8 97.8 97.8 97.8 97.8
CC 27.7 44.7 57.4 72.3 80.9 85.1 89.4 91.5 93.6 95.7 97.9 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Investment grade 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Speculative grade 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.7 5.9 6.1
All rated 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 62

Sovereign Local Currency Cumulative Average Default Rates With Rating Modifiers (1993-2020)
(%) --Time horizon (annualized months)--
Rating 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AAA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
AA+ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
AA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 2.0
AA- 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.5 5.4 6.5 6.5
A+ 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.9 4.0 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 6.5
A 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 3.1 4.7 5.8 6.6 7.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7
A- 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.8 3.0 5.5 8.1 10.8 12.1
BBB+ 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
BBB 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
BBB- 0.0 0.7 1.5 2.4 3.3 4.4 6.7 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0
BB+ 0.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 3.4 4.5 5.8 7.2 8.8 10.6 12.6
BB 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.7 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
BB- 0.5 1.2 2.3 3.3 4.8 5.7 6.4 7.6 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5
B+ 0.5 1.6 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.6 3.0 3.0 3.4 4.6 4.9 6.7 8.4 8.4 8.4
B 1.2 1.8 3.2 4.8 6.3 7.9 9.6 12.0 13.4 13.4 13.6 13.6 13.9 14.7 14.7
B- 4.1 7.0 10.2 12.1 13.3 14.2 15.5 16.5 19.5 23.1 25.0 25.0 25.0 26.8 27.3
CCC+ 4.1 6.4 11.5 17.4 28.4 41.7 48.3 53.0 53.0 56.3 64.6 64.6 64.6 64.6 64.6
CCC 19.1 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5
CCC- 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 N.A. N.A. N.A.
CC 33.8 33.8 33.8 33.8 33.8 33.8 33.8 33.8 33.8 33.8 33.8 33.8 33.8 33.8 33.8
Investment grade 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.7 3.0 3.4 3.8
Speculative grade 1.7 2.8 3.9 4.8 5.8 7.0 7.9 9.0 10.0 10.8 11.6 12.1 12.8 13.5 14.0
All rated 0.6 1.1 1.6 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.6 4.1 4.6 5.0 5.4 5.8 6.3 6.7 7.2
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. N.A.--Not available (no observations for this horizon). Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 63

Sovereign Foreign Currency Cumulative Average Default Rates Without Rating Modifiers: Middle East And Africa (1975-2020)
(%) --Time horizon (annualized months)--
Rating 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AAA N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
AA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 N.A. N.A.
A 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BBB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
B 1.68 3.64 5.78 7.62 9.64 11.90 14.41 17.18 20.31 23.40 26.25 28.48 30.24 32.78 36.02
CCC/CC 21.87 24.04 24.04 24.04 24.04 24.04 24.04 24.04 24.04 24.04 24.04 39.87 46.20 46.20 46.20
Investment grade 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Speculative grade 1.96 3.44 4.97 6.27 7.68 9.21 10.87 12.67 14.66 16.54 18.17 19.79 20.85 22.08 23.53
All rated 1.13 1.97 2.83 3.55 4.32 5.14 6.04 7.01 8.08 9.08 9.94 10.78 11.32 11.94 12.65
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. N.A.--Not available (no observations for this horizon). Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 64

Sovereign Foreign Currency Cumulative Average Default Rates Without Rating Modifiers: Latin America (1975-2020)
(%) --Time horizon (annualized months)--
Rating 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.80 6.02
BBB 0.00 0.61 1.49 2.45 3.49 4.66 5.98 7.48 9.22 11.24 13.60 16.30 19.37 22.16 22.16
BB 0.26 1.11 2.61 4.32 7.83 11.64 15.62 19.21 22.12 23.75 25.63 27.79 29.46 30.79 31.76
B 7.06 15.50 24.21 32.24 37.23 41.83 45.68 49.74 53.22 56.32 57.79 59.03 60.81 62.64 65.42
CCC/CC 39.80 56.22 66.54 70.63 76.14 81.64 87.15 91.05 91.05 93.61 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
Investment grade 0.00 0.36 0.86 1.39 1.97 2.59 3.27 4.02 4.85 5.79 6.82 7.98 9.27 10.70 12.29
Speculative grade 5.43 10.46 15.58 20.21 24.50 28.78 32.81 36.65 39.66 41.97 43.88 45.51 47.12 48.54 50.11
All rated 3.41 6.71 10.17 13.35 16.35 19.41 22.39 25.31 27.73 29.71 31.45 33.02 34.61 36.11 37.76
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 65

Sovereign Foreign Currency Cumulative Average Default Rates Without Rating Modifiers: Asia-Pacific (1975-2020)
(%) --Time horizon (annualized months)--
Rating 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BBB 0.00 1.07 2.57 4.17 5.86 7.64 8.89 8.89 8.89 8.89 8.89 8.89 8.89 8.89 8.89
BB 0.00 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09
B 0.67 2.20 3.19 4.23 4.41 4.41 4.41 4.41 4.41 4.41 4.41 4.41 4.41 4.41 4.41
CCC/CC 67.24 68.97 68.97 68.97 68.97 68.97 68.97 68.97 68.97 68.97 68.97 68.97 68.97 68.97 68.97
Investment grade 0.00 0.21 0.49 0.78 1.09 1.40 1.62 1.62 1.62 1.62 1.62 1.62 1.62 1.62 1.62
Speculative grade 1.92 2.83 3.35 3.89 3.99 3.99 3.99 3.99 3.99 3.99 3.99 3.99 3.99 3.99 3.99
All rated 0.68 1.14 1.50 1.88 2.12 2.32 2.47 2.47 2.47 2.47 2.47 2.47 2.47 2.47 2.47
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 66

Sovereign Foreign Currency Cumulative Average Default Rates Without Rating Modifiers: Central And Eastern Europe And CIS (1975-2020)
(%) --Time horizon (annualized months)--
Rating 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AAA N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
AA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
BBB 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
BB 0.3 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 2.3 3.7 5.3 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8
B 0.2 0.6 2.0 3.5 5.2 6.1 6.9 7.4 7.4 7.4 9.2 12.1 15.4 17.9 17.9
CCC/CC 44.7 65.8 65.8 65.8 65.8 81.6 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Investment grade 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Speculative grade 0.9 1.9 2.5 3.1 3.7 4.3 5.0 5.8 6.7 7.6 8.6 9.8 11.2 12.2 12.2
All rated 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.3 3.7 4.2 4.7 5.1 5.1
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. CIS--Commonwealth of Independent States. N.A.--Not available (no observations for this horizon). Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 67

Sovereign Foreign Currency Cumulative Average Default Rates Without Rating Modifiers: Eurozone (1975-2020)
(%) --Time horizon (annualized months)--
Rating 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.45
A 0.00 0.07 1.67 3.51 5.47 7.52 9.69 11.94 14.25 16.69 19.31 22.17 24.11 25.86 27.00
BBB 0.00 0.98 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.23 3.30 6.12 8.96
BB 3.01 9.59 9.59 9.59 9.59 9.59 9.59 9.59 9.59 9.59 9.59 9.59 9.59 9.59 9.59
B 3.06 3.06 3.06 3.06 3.06 3.06 3.06 3.06 3.06 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
CCC/CC 61.76 61.76 61.76 61.76 61.76 61.76 61.76 61.76 61.76 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
Investment grade 0.00 0.14 0.52 0.91 1.32 1.74 2.17 2.62 3.09 3.58 4.08 4.61 5.16 5.75 6.36
Speculative grade 8.40 12.60 12.60 12.60 12.60 12.60 12.60 12.60 12.60 12.60 12.60 12.60 12.60 12.60 12.60
All rated 0.44 0.78 1.14 1.52 1.91 2.31 2.73 3.17 3.62 4.10 4.59 5.11 5.65 6.22 6.82
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. N.A.--Not available (no observations for this horizon). Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 68

Sovereign Foreign Currency Cumulative Average Default Rates Without Rating Modifiers: Emerging And Frontier Markets (1975-2020)
(%) --Time horizon (annualized months)--
Rating 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AAA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
AA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1
BBB 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.6 2.2 2.9 3.6 4.0 4.4 4.9 5.4 5.9 6.5 7.1 7.1
BB 0.4 1.1 2.0 2.7 4.1 5.7 7.3 9.1 10.7 11.8 12.8 13.9 14.7 15.4 15.9
B 3.1 6.9 11.0 15.0 17.9 20.6 23.2 25.8 28.1 30.4 32.1 33.7 35.5 37.4 39.4
CCC/CC 39.5 51.6 57.9 60.6 64.3 71.0 76.8 79.4 79.4 80.9 84.5 86.6 87.6 87.6 87.6
Investment grade 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.6
Speculative grade 3.2 6.0 8.6 11.0 13.2 15.5 17.8 20.0 21.9 23.5 24.9 26.3 27.5 28.7 29.8
All rated 1.8 3.5 5.1 6.6 8.0 9.4 10.8 12.1 13.2 14.2 15.2 16.0 16.8 17.6 18.3
Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

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This report does not constitute a rating action.

Ratings Performance Analytics:Nick W Kraemer, FRM, New York + 1 (212) 438 1698;
nick.kraemer@spglobal.com
Evan M Gunter, New York + 1 (212) 438 6412;
evan.gunter@spglobal.com
Vincent R Conti, Singapore + 65 6216 1188;
vincent.conti@spglobal.com
Research Contributors:Abhik Debnath, CRISIL Global Analytical Center, an S&P Global Ratings affiliate, Mumbai
Lyndon Fernandes, CRISIL Global Analytical Center, an S&P affiliate, Mumbai

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