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Sovereign Debt 2021: Global Borrowing Will Stay High To Spur Economic Recovery

This report does not constitute a rating action

The surge in sovereign borrowing in 2020, driven by the COVID-19 pandemic, was unprecedented. Yet the fiscal fallout has harmed ratings mainly on sovereigns with limited space to cushion the impact of the crisis. As the pandemic keeps economies under tight lockdowns, delaying the recovery, the additional effort by governments to sustain the world economy will continue to erode fiscal buffers. This could put downward pressure on a wider group of sovereign ratings this year and beyond.

S&P Global Ratings' annual survey of global sovereign debt and borrowing compiles data pertaining to all 135 rated sovereigns. We project that the sovereigns we rate will borrow an equivalent of $12.6 trillion from commercial sources in 2021--approximately one-fifth lower than in 2020. However, 2020 itself is not the best benchmark because the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the corresponding fiscal policy responses prompted an unprecedented rise in government financing needs. As a result, in gross terms, rated sovereigns borrowed a historically high $16.3 trillion in 2020--almost twice the amount they had planned to issue before the crisis (see chart 1 and table 1).

Chart 1

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Table 1

Sovereign Commercial Issuance And Debt
(Bil. USD) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021f
Gross total commercial borrowing 8,472 7,450 7,451 8,042 16,264 12,595
Gross long-term commercial borrowing 7,120 7,294 7,439 7,394 12,049 12,438
Of which amortization of maturing long-term debt 5,266 5,459 5,383 5,079 6,081 6,764
Of which net long-term commercial borrowing 1,854 1,834 2,056 2,315 5,968 5,674
Total commercial debt stock (year end) 42,724 46,465 48,081 50,199 61,330 67,496
Of which short-term debt 4,538 4,695 4,707 5,355 9,569 9,726
Of which debt with original maturity greater than one year 38,186 41,770 43,374 44,844 51,760 57,770
(% GDP)
Gross long-term commercial borrowing (% GDP) 9.6 9.2 8.9 8.7 14.7 13.8
Of which amortization of maturing long-term debt (% GDP) 7.1 6.9 6.4 6.0 7.4 7.5
Of which net long-term commercial borrowing (% GDP) 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.7 7.3 6.3
Total commercial debt stock (year end) (% GDP) 57.6 58.8 57.2 58.8 75.0 75.1
Of which short-term debt (% GDP) 6.1 5.9 5.6 6.3 11.7 10.8
Of which debt with original maturity greater than one year (% GDP) 51.5 52.9 51.6 52.6 63.3 64.3
Note: here and below data excludes Venezuela due to distortions caused by hyper-inflation and multiple exchange rates. e--Estimate. f--Forecast.

In net terms, the increase in borrowing was even larger. Actual net issuance in 2020 exceeded the pre-COVID forecast by 2.5x (see chart 2) and reached $10.9 trillion (or over 13% of rated sovereigns' GDP in 2020), highlighting the approximate cost of global fiscal support to economies confronted with the pandemic. The major part of this borrowing was made by a few of the largest economies (see chart 3). Some of these sovereigns also took the biggest hit from the pandemic, resulting in a substantial fiscal fallout.

Chart 2

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Chart 3

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This borrowing surge resulted in an average rise in central government debt across rated sovereings of 16 percentage points of GDP in 2020 (see chart 4). The rapid rise in debt, as well as other credit factors such as prexisting macroeconomic vulnerabilities, led to negative sovereign rating actions on over 20% of the portfolio that we rate (see "Global Sovereign Rating Trends 2021: Mounting Debt And Uncertainty Underpin A Negative Outlook Bias," published Jan. 27, 2021). However, most downgrades were on sovereigns with concentrated economies and limited capacity to undertake countercyclical macroeconomic policies--most of them in emerging and/or frontier markets.

Chart 4

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At the same time, despite a more pronouced rise in debt compared to the global sovereign average, our ratings on developed sovereigns remain little changed so far. Among this group, only Australia and Spain carry a negative outlook, whereas all other rating outlooks on developed market sovereigns are stable. Apart from their inherent credit strengths--strong institutions, economic wealth, and exceptional monetary flexibility--a key support for this rating resilience was that, while debt stocks rose, the cost of servicing it remained relatively stable.

Indeed, supported by the substantial monetary stimulus rolled out by leading central banks, governments in the advanced world have never borrowed so cheaply (see chart 5a). The current market borrowing costs are well below the effective interest rate of the existing debt stock in many parts of the developed world. In addition, accelerated asset purchases by central banks have also changed the investor base for developed market sovereign debt, with monetary authorities becoming one of the largest holders of government debt (see chart 6 for the eurozone).

Chart 5a

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Chart 5b

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Chart 6

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Amid benign global funding conditions and improved monetary crediblity over the past few years, some emerging markets (EM) have also benefited from a declining cost of debt. This has mitigated risks stemming from the growing stock of debt amid COVID-related domestic and external distress. By our estimates, the central government average effective borrowing rate for the 20 largest EM sovereign borrowers will come down to below 4.7% in 2021, compared with 5.1% in 2015.

However, borrowing conditions for frontier markets are more nuanced, with many weaker sovereigns (in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa, for example) facing debt sustainability risks, also due to longstanding fiscal challenges including weak tax administration. Among the four largest commercial issuers in Sub-Saharan Africa (Angola, Ghana, Nigeria, and Kenya), for example, interest expenditures as a share of total budget revenue will exceed a very high 40% in 2021, twice as high as six years ago (see chart 7). Apart from a chronic revenue weakness, this also reflects the increasing effective interest rate, which by our estimate will on average increase to over 11.5% in 2021 from around 10% in 2015.

Chart 7

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Sovereign Borrowings In 2021 Will Remain Sizable

By our estimates, the global economic recovery and gradual withdrawal of emergency fiscal stimulus will cut sovereign net borrowing needs in 2021 by around two-fifths to $5.8 trillion, or 6.5% of global GDP. However, this will still be substantial in a historical perspective--average global net issuance in the three years pre-COVID-19 was just 2.8% of GDP.

As a result, by end-2021 we project that the commercial debt stock of all sovereigns we rate will rise by 10% from 2020 to reach a record of $67.5 trillion (see chart 8). At the same time, outstanding short-term commercial debt, after a substantial hike in 2020 driven by accelerated short-term issuance of some advanced sovereigns, including the U.S., will remain almost unchanged at $9.7 trillion (about 11% of the total commercial debt stock) in 2021.

Chart 8

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Investment-grade sovereign borrowings will account for the overwhelming majority of total borrowings in 2021. We project that, during 2021, the share of commercial sovereign debt rated 'AAA' (foreign currency rating) will account for a modest 7.5% of the total estimated commercial debt stock and 6.7% of total long-term commercial borrowing. Similar to recent years, one-half of all commercial borrowing and the total debt stock will fall into the 'AA' category because three of the top six sovereign debtors fall into this rating category (the U.S., U.K., and France; see tables 2 and 3, and chart 9).

The share of the debt stock and long-term commercial borrowing by sovereign issuers rated in the 'BB' category or below (speculative grade) accounts for around 6% of the global total (see table 2). Brazil, accounting for around $257 billion (or 2.1%) of global sovereign commercial borrowing, is by far the largest speculative-grade borrower this year. Among all sovereign borrowers it ranks at No. 8 globally. Other big speculative-grade sovereign borrowers in the top 20 sovereigns by absolute borrowing volumes in 2021 include Turkey and Egypt, together accounting for a combined 1.1% of the global total.

Chart 9

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The stock of sovereign debt across all rating categories has increased steadily over the past decade, but debt profiles vary significantly by region. Excluding the G-7 countries (which distort average trends due to their size), almost 90% of the debt stock of Asia-Pacific and developed Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) is in local currency and at fixed interest rates. By contrast, between 30% and 40% of emerging EMEA and Latin America's debt stock is denominated in foreign currency, while 70% and 50%, respectively, has been issued at fixed interest rates. Even though our rating analysis captures a complexity of factors, these differences in debt profiles partially explain why sovereign ratings in emerging EMEA and Latin American countries are lower.

According to our calculations, among the bigger sovereigns, Egypt, Kenya, Japan--and quite unusually, the U.S. and Canada--will face the highest rollover ratios in 2021. This is a function of an elevated share of short-term debt, which constitutes over 30% of total debt for Egypt and Kenya, and above 20% for the U.S. and Canada, which issued significant amounts of T-bills during the pandemic in 2020 (chart 10).

Chart 10

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The U.S. and Japan are by far the largest sovereign issuers (see chart 11). We estimate they will account for over 60% of total global sovereign borrowing in 2021, with the U.S. alone accounting for over 40% of the global total. They are followed by China, which we forecast will issue around $700 billion in 2021, and Italy, the U.K., France, and Germany, each of which we believe will raise about $300 billion-$450 billion in 2021. These sovereigns together will account for around 17% of the global total, slightly below Japan by itself. The G-7 group of nations will account for approximately 75% of global borrowing and debt.

Chart 11

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Green Sovereign Issuance Is On The Rise

Although still limited, the sovereign green bond market has been growing at a fast pace in recent years. In 2020 alone it expanded more than 2x on 2019 to $34 billion (see charts 12 and 13). The governments that issued green debt for the first time last year included Germany, Hungary, Egypt, Luxembourg, Mexico, and Sweden.

We project at least seven sovereigns will tap the green bond market in 2021, with a total estimated issuance of $31 billion, partly driven by policy commitments under the Paris Agreement. This will bring the global green debt stock of 17 sovereigns that have by now issued such bonds to around $114.5 billion in 2021.

Chart 12

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Chart 13

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Risks Ahead To Fiscal Consolidation

So far, the combination of monetary and fiscal policy employed to combat the pandemic has been effective in providing the support needed to avoid an even larger economic collapse, and has supported the stability of the majority of our sovereign ratings.

For these policies to continue to work--and provided the vaccines work as expected, even against new variants of the virus--the return to sustainable economic growth is paramount. This is because a return to growth will make the adjustments that are needed to stabilize or even reduce debt a lot more feasible (see "Sizing Sovereign Debt And The Great Fiscal Unwind," Feb. 2, 2021).

Our current base case remains that, once the world has achieved a high rate of vaccination (sometime in mid- to late-2021), pent up demand will trigger a strong recovery, bringing output levels close to those in 2019 by 2022, or 2023 in some cases.

In this context, inflation is a risk to the low interest rate environment scenario. It could push central banks to increase interest rates, partially reversing the benefits of low debt-servicing costs. We nevertheless consider this quite unlikely. It is true that there could be a spike in inflation if the world economy reopens, but we believe it will probably be temporary. It is also more likely that central banks will be willing to tolerate some inflation before significantly changing rates. If nothing else, this will help somewhat to bring down debt-to-GDP ratios.

Another variant of risk is that, even after vaccination becomes widespread, the recovery is more gradual than expected, calling for longer periods of fiscal support or a prolonged period of low economic growth. This would make stabilization of public finances more challenging because the social cost would remain high, limiting policymakers' degrees of freedom to make difficult choices.

Finally, there is also a risk that the social cost of the pandemic and the toll it has already started to take on incumbent administrations across the world will reduce the incentives for policymakers to start withdrawing public spending. This would push the likelihood of fiscal consolidation further out on the ratings horizon.

Methodology

Estimates in this report do not take into account sovereigns not rated by S&P Global Ratings. Since few sizable sovereigns remain unrated, however, we see our data as a reliable reflection of global developments in sovereign debt and borrowing. Our estimates focus on debt issued by a central government in its own name. We exclude local government and social security debt, as well as debt issued by other public bodies and government-guaranteed obligations. In terms of commercial debt instruments, our estimates for borrowing include bonds, issued either on publicly listed markets or sold as private placements, as well as commercial bank loans. We do not include government debt that some central banks may issue for monetary policy purposes. All reported forecast figures are our own estimates and do not necessarily reflect the issuers' projections. Our estimates are informed by our expectations regarding central government deficits, our assessment of governments' potential extra budgetary funding needs, and our estimates of debt maturities in 2021. Estimates that we express in U.S. dollars are subject to exchange-rate variations.

This global report summarizes a series of simultaneously released regional sovereign borrowing and debt reports, which we list in the "Related Research" section below. We have produced detailed reports for developed EMEA, emerging EMEA, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America.

Table 2

Gross Commercial Long-Term Borrowing (Global Total 2021 = $12,438.4 Billion)
Bil. $ 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Share of 2021f total borrowing (%)

Abu Dhabi (Emirate of)

5.0 10.0 0.0 13.9 15.0 10.0 0.1

Albania

0.7 0.9 1.5 0.9 1.9 1.3 0.0

Andorra

0.7 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.0

Angola

10.2 23.0 25.6 27.4 15.3 14.0 0.1

Argentina

52.4 68.0 97.3 14.9 141.7 50.1 0.4

Aruba

0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0

Australia

75.0 61.1 47.2 43.6 87.0 168.6 1.4

Austria

24.7 27.9 21.4 21.4 42.2 35.7 0.3

Azerbaijan

0.1 2.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

Bahamas

0.3 1.3 0.5 0.5 1.3 1.2 0.0

Bahrain

4.4 6.3 2.8 3.3 7.4 6.7 0.1

Bangladesh

8.0 11.7 12.7 8.5 12.3 17.8 0.1

Barbados

0.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Belarus

1.5 2.0 1.2 0.9 2.1 0.4 0.0

Belgium

46.9 41.6 40.3 33.9 58.6 52.3 0.4

Belize

0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

Benin

1.0 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.1 0.0

Bermuda

0.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.0

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

0.4 1.2 0.6 1.3 4.5 3.6 0.0

Bosnia and Herzegovina

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Botswana

0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.0

Brazil

173.2 213.2 170.0 178.3 180.5 256.8 2.1

Bulgaria

2.4 0.5 0.0 0.6 3.5 2.7 0.0

Burkina Faso

0.1 0.2 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.5 0.0

Cameroon

0.4 0.7 0.4 1.6 1.5 1.6 0.0

Canada

104.9 107.1 111.9 97.2 256.7 232.0 1.9

Cape Verde

0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0

Chile

9.7 11.6 8.3 8.3 11.4 15.6 0.1

China

460.1 590.7 556.9 617.1 929.6 698.3 5.6

Colombia

14.3 17.3 15.1 12.6 29.4 35.6 0.3

Congo (the Democratic Republic of the)

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0

Congo-Brazzaville

0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.0

Cook Islands

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Costa Rica

6.7 4.1 4.8 7.8 4.2 4.8 0.0

Croatia

2.6 6.1 3.7 5.1 8.4 4.2 0.0

Curacao

0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Cyprus

1.7 1.4 8.5 3.0 5.2 1.5 0.0

Czech Republic

8.7 9.1 11.9 12.7 27.4 20.9 0.2

Denmark

12.1 13.9 13.2 14.1 25.0 20.1 0.2

Dominican Republic

3.2 3.5 3.8 5.3 10.3 4.1 0.0

Ecuador

11.6 13.7 5.9 4.2 0.5 0.9 0.0

Egypt

93.3 33.6 38.1 45.4 56.5 62.8 0.5

El Salvador

0.1 0.6 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.0

Estonia

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 1.2 0.0

Ethiopia

3.4 3.2 1.1 1.2 0.3 1.7 0.0

Fiji

1.7 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.0

Finland

15.4 15.5 11.8 10.1 24.4 21.0 0.2

France

207.0 211.3 230.3 223.9 296.3 311.7 2.5

Georgia (Government of)

0.5 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.0

Germany

177.1 176.2 171.2 178.0 257.5 274.5 2.2

Ghana

4.5 4.8 4.9 6.3 9.4 7.7 0.1

Greece

0.0 3.7 3.5 14.7 25.0 14.4 0.1

Guatemala

2.0 1.8 1.7 2.4 4.6 3.3 0.0

Guernsey

0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Honduras

0.7 0.5 0.8 0.7 1.2 1.5 0.0

Hong Kong

3.7 0.1 2.5 3.6 6.2 8.9 0.1

Hungary

11.6 17.0 17.9 26.7 40.1 22.3 0.2

Iceland

0.6 1.0 0.3 0.9 2.6 2.9 0.0

India

107.0 86.7 77.6 124.3 166.4 153.6 1.2

Indonesia

31.0 58.1 49.6 57.3 101.8 103.4 0.8

Iraq

13.6 6.3 0.3 10.2 20.5 12.9 0.1

Ireland

9.4 19.2 20.8 16.8 29.6 21.6 0.2

Israel

25.9 28.5 27.9 34.9 70.4 50.7 0.4

Italy

283.1 311.2 294.5 283.6 417.4 455.2 3.7

Jamaica

0.3 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.0

Japan

1918.4 1755.1 1693.5 1272.8 2837.5 2475.6 19.9

Jersey (States of)

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Jordan

4.1 7.5 5.3 6.9 6.5 7.0 0.1

Kazakhstan

0.5 5.0 3.4 4.8 6.6 5.5 0.0

Kenya

3.1 6.3 3.3 2.8 5.9 6.5 0.1

Korea (the Republic of)

87.1 89.2 88.5 87.3 148.1 159.8 1.3

Kuwait

8.1 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 0.0

Latvia

1.7 1.3 1.6 1.6 2.6 2.5 0.0

Lebanon

13.0 15.7 18.6 11.0 9.2 8.1 0.1

Liechtenstein

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Lithuania

1.7 3.1 1.2 3.1 7.2 5.8 0.0

Luxembourg

0.0 2.3 0.8 1.9 4.6 3.6 0.0

Malaysia

22.3 26.5 28.6 29.7 35.6 37.4 0.3

Malta

0.7 0.4 0.3 0.5 1.6 1.2 0.0

Mexico

52.2 50.1 51.6 66.6 69.1 57.6 0.5

Mongolia

0.6 0.8 0.9 0.0 1.2 1.1 0.0

Montenegro

0.5 0.3 0.9 0.9 1.3 0.0 0.0

Montserrat

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Morocco

10.7 11.4 13.0 11.3 15.3 11.0 0.1

Mozambique

4.5 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0

Netherlands

29.5 36.8 27.9 23.6 47.0 59.9 0.5

New Zealand

5.4 5.7 6.2 6.7 33.7 20.7 0.2

Nicaragua

0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0

Nigeria

10.1 10.7 37.2 11.0 15.4 14.7 0.1

North Macedonia

0.7 0.4 1.0 0.3 1.5 1.3 0.0

Norway

7.1 7.0 6.6 6.6 10.0 7.9 0.1

Oman

10.7 10.5 8.0 5.0 4.1 10.8 0.1

Pakistan

37.1 39.1 18.3 48.0 33.8 35.0 0.3

Panama

2.0 1.9 2.5 4.6 5.1 4.4 0.0

Papua New Guinea

0.3 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0

Paraguay

0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.8 0.6 0.0

Peru

8.2 7.5 6.1 9.9 7.8 11.6 0.1

Philippines

9.0 16.0 11.5 15.0 54.4 32.3 0.3

Poland

44.1 32.9 33.8 35.9 48.0 44.7 0.4

Portugal

29.0 33.0 27.3 28.5 39.4 23.7 0.2

Qatar

14.6 19.5 0.0 21.2 24.1 7.4 0.1

Ras Al Khaimah (Emirate of)

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Romania

12.4 12.3 16.8 18.8 33.1 25.2 0.2

Russia

18.7 37.1 21.4 38.4 74.1 52.1 0.4

Rwanda

0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0

Saudi Arabia

53.4 37.1 32.9 12.0 40.0 37.3 0.3

Senegal

0.6 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0

Serbia

3.8 3.4 2.9 5.0 5.3 2.7 0.0

Sharjah (Emirate of)

1.5 1.6 3.2 3.3 3.0 4.1 0.0

Singapore

26.8 36.2 16.1 36.7 37.5 41.0 0.3

Slovakia

5.6 6.9 3.7 3.4 11.4 9.9 0.1

Slovenia

5.5 7.3 3.5 2.2 8.7 5.7 0.0

South Africa

15.4 17.5 15.7 21.5 35.9 29.2 0.2

Spain

132.6 156.6 155.6 126.7 197.2 207.4 1.7

Sri Lanka

7.3 7.9 10.1 11.0 15.7 15.0 0.1

St. Helena

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Suriname

0.9 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0

Sweden

18.4 14.5 14.7 6.0 19.1 18.8 0.2

Switzerland

3.4 3.9 2.3 2.1 4.9 7.1 0.1

Taiwan

3.7 3.0 3.4 3.0 8.4 16.2 0.1

Tajikistan

0.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Thailand

22.9 32.9 38.2 32.1 66.5 60.5 0.5

Togo

0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0

Trinidad and Tobago

1.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 2.3 1.4 0.0

Turkey

35.6 44.8 32.6 45.3 68.2 78.6 0.6

Turks and Caicos Islands

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Uganda

0.2 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.8 0.0

Ukraine

11.2 16.4 4.6 10.8 11.9 11.5 0.1

United Kingdom

183.7 168.1 135.3 153.3 581.1 344.1 2.8

United States

2169.4 2224.3 2684.7 2935.5 3895.6 5183.0 41.7

Uruguay

1.7 3.0 3.4 3.6 4.6 3.5 0.0

Uzbekistan

0.0 0.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.0

Vietnam

7.5 5.4 9.5 15.1 16.7 16.6 0.1

Zambia

1.7 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.6 1.1 0.0
Breakdown by foreign currency rating category*
Bil. $ 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Share of 2021f total borrowing (%)
AAA 454.2 459.0 411.9 409.7 749.4 833.6 6.7
AA 2824.7 2895.2 3288.5 3580.3 5271.5 6274.3 50.4
A 2651.3 2623.4 2516.7 2112.2 4125.3 3538.7 28.4
BBB 625.3 711.9 666.6 751.4 1155.1 1072.5 8.6
BB 217.7 266.2 223.3 255.0 299.0 352.1 2.8
B 256.5 219.7 177.2 218.8 264.2 277.5 2.2
CCC 74.6 99.7 133.8 53.9 173.6 80.0 0.6
SD 15.6 18.5 20.7 12.9 11.3 9.6 0.1
Breakdown by foreign currency rating category*
Bil. $ 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Share of 2021f total borrowing (%)
World 7120.1 7293.6 7438.8 7394.1 12049.5 12438.4 100.0
Americas 2618.4 2735.4 3171.7 3357.4 4636.3 5873.4 47.2
Developed EMEA 1206.6 1273.7 1208.7 1172.8 2148.1 1931.0 15.5
Emerging EMEA 460.1 457.7 386.3 451.7 671.6 571.0 4.6
Asia-Pacific 2835.0 2826.8 2672.2 2412.1 4593.5 4063.0 32.7
G-7 5043.7 4953.3 5321.4 5144.3 8542.2 9276.1 74.6
e--Estimate. F--Forecast. N.A.--Not available

Table 3

Total Commercial Debt At Year-End (Long- And Short-Term) (Global Total 2021 = $67,495.9 Billion)
Bil. $ 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Share of 2021f total commercial debt (%)
Abu Dhabi (Emirate of) 7.9 17.6 17.3 29.4 43.9 51.1 0.1
Albania 5.1 5.9 6.5 6.5 8.0 8.4 0.0
Andorra 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.3 0.0
Angola 44.4 60.4 56.9 51.4 44.9 48.6 0.1
Argentina 247.5 292.5 271.4 167.5 176.5 199.2 0.3
Aruba 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.5 0.0
Australia 378.0 409.2 400.6 374.8 469.6 623.7 0.9
Austria 219.0 253.3 242.3 234.5 282.0 305.3 0.5
Azerbaijan 2.6 11.4 10.7 9.3 9.0 9.5 0.0
Bahamas 5.6 6.9 7.2 7.4 8.5 9.4 0.0
Bahrain 23.1 28.2 31.8 31.5 33.5 34.9 0.1
Bangladesh 30.9 39.7 39.5 56.2 67.5 85.4 0.1
Barbados 6.2 6.3 5.6 5.4 5.1 4.8 0.0
Belarus 6.0 6.9 6.1 6.3 7.3 7.0 0.0
Belgium 426.8 462.5 445.2 442.2 503.1 537.8 0.8
Belize 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.0
Benin 2.9 3.8 3.5 4.3 5.3 0.0
Bermuda 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 3.3 3.3 0.0
Bolivia (Plurinational State of) 1.9 4.9 5.3 8.4 12.3 11.9 0.0
Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Botswana 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.8 2.2 0.0
Brazil 952.3 1072.4 997.0 1050.5 923.9 1102.5 1.6
Bulgaria 11.9 12.4 11.1 10.9 14.5 16.9 0.0
Burkina Faso 1.2 1.9 2.3 3.0 3.8 4.7 0.0
Cameroon 3.4 4.5 4.7 5.2 5.9 6.8 0.0
Canada 517.7 552.2 516.3 586.1 884.3 1035.4 1.5
Cape Verde 0.9 1.3 1.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.0
Chile 52.3 67.7 69.0 73.2 83.7 100.2 0.1
China 1711.5 2057.4 2294.0 2389.7 3076.4 3416.0 5.1
Colombia 108.0 120.4 125.6 129.6 137.2 157.7 0.2
Congo (the Democratic Republic of the) 1.8 2.5 3.2 2.1 2.0 2.1 0.0
Congo-Brazzaville 1.8 3.7 6.4 6.5 6.8 6.8 0.0
Cook Islands 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Costa Rica 23.8 26.5 28.7 34.7 36.5 40.1 0.1
Croatia 28.6 34.8 35.4 35.1 40.8 43.0 0.1
Curacao 1.4 1.6 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cyprus 7.6 8.3 12.4 13.9 19.5 18.9 0.0
Czech Republic 60.7 73.9 70.3 70.8 90.0 107.2 0.2
Denmark 91.7 103.4 94.8 91.4 127.0 123.7 0.2
Dominican Republic 19.2 21.9 24.7 28.3 34.9 39.5 0.1
Ecuador 23.7 30.6 27.3 20.7 18.8 21.6 0.0
Egypt 356.1 184.9 225.9 251.9 292.1 314.0 0.5
El Salvador 7.4 8.5 8.0 9.2 11.2 11.2 0.0
Estonia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.3 3.8 0.0
Ethiopia 11.9 11.3 11.9 13.5 13.6 13.4 0.0
Fiji 2.5 1.8 2.2 2.2 2.6 3.4 0.0
Finland 107.9 126.9 120.2 119.5 147.9 164.0 0.2
France 1708.3 2022.1 2011.1 2047.7 2371.2 2588.5 3.8
Georgia (Government of) 1.7 2.0 2.6 2.0 2.3 2.3 0.0
Germany 1193.2 1356.4 1281.3 1269.4 1711.1 1875.6 2.8
Ghana 14.0 26.0 25.2 26.6 31.5 34.0 0.1
Greece 53.8 78.4 76.5 76.6 93.2 106.2 0.2
Guatemala 8.7 9.9 13.6 15.6 20.0 22.6 0.0
Guernsey 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.0
Honduras 5.0 6.2 6.5 6.8 8.2 9.1 0.0
Hong Kong 15.2 16.4 16.5 14.9 16.0 20.1 0.0
Hungary 77.4 94.7 94.5 93.1 115.6 115.1 0.2
Iceland 10.0 8.7 7.2 7.3 8.5 11.1 0.0
India 874.5 984.1 1284.7 1311.3 1500.2 1635.6 2.4
Indonesia 199.6 243.1 257.8 292.4 374.2 451.7 0.7
Iraq 68.8 73.7 42.8 53.5 68.0 75.0 0.1
Ireland 153.3 183.7 182.7 182.1 209.1 231.7 0.3
Israel 192.7 215.5 210.4 238.2 291.7 321.2 0.5
Italy 1968.2 2286.3 2243.5 2252.2 2547.3 2763.2 4.1
Jamaica 4.4 12.0 11.7 10.9 10.2 10.1 0.0
Japan 9188.9 9617.0 9929.9 10213.9 12654.1 13030.5 19.3
Jersey (States of) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.0
Jordan 29.6 31.0 27.5 29.5 32.1 34.3 0.1
Kazakhstan 19.3 23.4 23.6 27.3 29.2 32.0 0.0
Kenya 20.4 26.5 32.3 36.7 39.3 44.1 0.1
Korea (the Republic of) 490.1 586.1 583.0 528.2 662.1 771.0 1.1
Kuwait 20.4 23.8 19.5 14.7 11.3 11.3 0.0
Latvia 8.6 9.9 10.1 11.3 13.9 14.2 0.0
Lebanon 72.4 77.3 83.0 89.6 94.4 99.2 0.1
Liechtenstein 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lithuania 13.5 17.2 15.2 17.1 23.7 26.6 0.0
Luxembourg 6.6 9.9 10.4 11.5 14.5 18.3 0.0
Malaysia 143.1 167.7 177.7 192.4 212.7 232.1 0.3
Malta 5.8 6.4 6.1 6.0 7.9 8.8 0.0
Mexico 298.5 364.4 365.0 408.3 420.8 470.1 0.7
Mongolia 5.7 6.6 5.1 4.4 4.8 5.0 0.0
Montenegro 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.8 3.7 3.5 0.0
Montserrat 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Morocco 55.5 62.7 64.5 66.3 74.4 79.3 0.1
Mozambique 5.8 6.9 8.8 5.0 5.7 5.8 0.0
Netherlands 367.7 397.6 367.3 345.5 418.0 463.5 0.7
New Zealand 53.3 59.8 55.3 52.9 85.9 105.7 0.2
Nicaragua 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.0
Nigeria 46.1 49.2 44.5 58.2 61.2 65.7 0.1
North Macedonia 3.1 3.7 4.0 4.1 5.1 5.8 0.0
Norway 53.2 56.5 53.6 51.5 58.9 58.2 0.1
Oman 17.2 20.4 35.7 42.2 44.6 53.5 0.1
Pakistan 143.3 151.2 149.2 141.9 151.8 176.7 0.3
Panama 16.8 18.0 19.8 23.6 28.2 31.3 0.0
Papua New Guinea 4.7 3.4 3.5 4.3 4.9 5.4 0.0
Paraguay 3.5 4.2 4.6 5.1 6.6 7.1 0.0
Peru 33.3 40.2 45.8 48.9 53.2 67.2 0.1
Philippines 105.9 116.3 120.4 133.1 189.4 200.0 0.3
Poland 198.5 239.6 228.2 228.4 257.4 279.3 0.4
Portugal 176.3 216.0 220.6 224.9 254.2 267.7 0.4
Qatar 67.9 83.0 95.3 109.5 108.5 99.5 0.1
Ras Al Khaimah (Emirate of) 1.7 0.0 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.0
Romania 59.4 73.9 80.5 89.3 116.2 125.2 0.2
Russia 138.2 164.0 148.1 191.4 228.5 270.4 0.4
Rwanda 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.9 1.8 1.9 0.0
Saudi Arabia 84.4 118.1 128.4 159.8 217.4 262.2 0.4
Senegal 3.8 4.9 4.2 6.4 7.2 8.0 0.0
Serbia 15.0 15.5 14.2 14.5 17.7 18.6 0.0
Sharjah (Emirate of) 4.0 4.9 6.7 9.1 11.3 13.6 0.0
Singapore 297.3 364.6 389.2 466.3 520.9 584.0 0.9
Slovakia 37.8 44.4 43.2 42.9 57.3 63.8 0.1
Slovenia 27.9 33.7 32.7 31.4 39.8 42.0 0.1
South Africa 163.2 202.2 193.9 209.3 229.7 258.9 0.4
Spain 932.1 1022.7 1108.7 1117.3 1298.1 1417.2 2.1
Sri Lanka 48.3 53.5 51.4 54.8 59.9 69.2 0.1
St. Helena 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Suriname 0.8 1.4 1.5 1.9 1.9 2.5 0.0
Sweden 148.7 161.8 140.9 119.7 156.6 162.2 0.2
Switzerland 76.9 78.6 72.0 69.6 83.3 85.6 0.1
Taiwan 165.6 181.0 176.7 178.7 196.6 221.2 0.3
Tajikistan 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.0
Thailand 117.0 144.6 164.2 187.6 223.8 235.4 0.3
Togo 0.6 2.6 3.0 3.2 0.0
Trinidad and Tobago 7.2 8.2 8.3 9.0 10.5 11.2 0.0
Turkey 195.8 209.3 182.6 204.5 226.7 252.7 0.4
Turks and Caicos Islands 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Uganda 3.6 3.3 4.0 4.2 5.1 6.3 0.0
Ukraine 43.4 47.2 49.8 58.3 59.3 61.9 0.1
United Kingdom 2414.9 2708.0 2546.1 2774.4 3408.6 3704.7 5.5
United States 13908.2 14468.8 15608.0 16673.4 20973.1 23750.0 35.2
Uruguay 23.8 26.1 26.6 27.1 28.9 31.1 0.0
Uzbekistan 0.0 0.0 1.1 2.1 2.8 0.0
Vietnam 50.2 46.2 49.9 45.8 56.0 61.7 0.1
Zambia 7.9 10.4 11.5 12.9 12.4 13.2 0.0
Breakdown by foreign currency rating category*
Bil. $ 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Share of 2021f total commercial debt (%)
AAA 3131.1 3490.1 3326.3 3385.8 4444.4 5030.3 7.5
AA 20040.9 21517.0 22433.5 23743.4 29443.9 33037.4 48.9
A 12390.6 13379.5 14021.6 14463.1 17915.4 18866.3 28.0
BBB 4336.3 5052.7 5365.4 5589.1 6423.7 7042.4 10.4
BB 1317.2 1522.3 1447.2 1534.8 1487.2 1744.7 2.6
B 1076.1 993.7 992.3 1090.3 1209.4 1327.2 2.0
CCC 350.5 420.5 399.2 288.3 296.8 332.8 0.5
SD 81.1 89.1 96.0 104.5 108.7 114.9 0.2
Breakdown by foreign currency rating category*
Bil. $ 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Share of 2021f total commercial debt (%)
World 42723.7 46464.9 48081.3 50199.3 61329.6 67495.9 100.0
Americas 16283.50088 17178.1 18205.7 19358.4 23902.3 27153.1 40.2
Developed EMEA 10272.3 11728.7 11416.1 11632.6 13949.2 15172.4 22.5
Emerging EMEA 2142.4 2308.5 2308.7 2562.6 2948.7 3236.5 4.8
Asia-Pacific 14025.6 15249.6 16150.8 16645.7 20529.4 21933.9 32.5
G-7 30899.4 33010.8 34136.2 35817.1 44549.8 48747.9 72.2
e--Estimate. F--Forecast. N.A.--Not available

Table 4

Central Government Rollover Ratios And Debt Structure (% Of Total Debt, Including Bi-/Multilateral)
2020 2021
Commercial debt (% of total) Short-term debt (% of total) Foreign currency debt (% of total) Long-term fixed-rate debt (% of total debt) Inflation-indexed debt (% of total) Bi-/Multilateral debt (% of total) Rollover ratio (% of total debt) Rollover ratio (% of GDP) Bi-/Multilateral debt (% of total)
Abu Dhabi (Emirate of) 100.0 0.0 91.2 91.7 0.0 0.0 5.4 1.2 0.0
Albania 68.6 17.1 47.4 60.5 0.0 31.4 26.1 18.8 31.1
Andorra 100.0 20.3 0.0 72.6 0.0 0.0 57.6 24.5 0.0
Angola 71.3 2.7 76.4 97.3 0.0 28.7 11.9 13.3 28.7
Argentina 69.8 4.7 76.4 68.0 0.0 30.3 13.9 12.0 28.1
Aruba 91.6 5.1 47.1 86.6 0.0 8.4 8.6 9.9 26.2
Australia 100.0 8.6 0.0 85.8 5.6 0.0 12.3 5.2 0.0
Austria 100.0 8.7 0.0 90.4 0.0 0.0 14.3 9.1 0.0
Azerbaijan 63.2 2.3 57.9 97.7 0.0 36.9 8.5 2.8 34.5
Bahamas 90.2 14.9 44.7 47.7 0.0 9.8 16.9 14.7 9.8
Bahrain 84.1 13.3 64.0 69.3 0.0 15.9 21.0 24.2 19.0
Bangladesh 63.4 0.3 43.1 92.7 0.0 36.6 3.2 1.2 34.0
Barbados 79.3 4.9 31.2 75.5 0.0 20.7 7.9 10.7 24.5
Belarus 32.8 0.0 97.6 61.4 0.0 67.2 8.3 3.3 67.2
Belgium 100.0 10.0 0.0 89.8 0.2 0.0 12.9 12.2 0.0
Belize 55.0 9.9 70.0 96.0 0.0 45.0 12.2 13.6 45.0
Benin 58.5 0.2 55.5 98.1 0.0 41.5 19.2 9.3 36.2
Bermuda 100.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Bolivia (Plurinational State of) 57.9 10.9 51.5 59.0 1.7 42.1 14.4 7.8 44.4
Bosnia and Herzegovina 1.0 0.0 100.0 60.3 0.0 99.0 8.1 1.9 99.2
Botswana 49.9 8.5 50.2 24.7 0.0 50.2 21.8 5.1 44.6
Brazil 99.6 7.3 5.1 27.5 25.3 0.4 17.8 13.4 0.3
Bulgaria 87.3 0.0 82.2 98.1 0.0 12.7 3.4 0.9 13.2
Burkina Faso 47.0 5.6 47.9 94.4 0.0 53.1 14.6 7.5 49.4
Cameroon 34.4 2.0 76.0 98.0 0.0 65.6 9.8 4.5 64.6
Canada 100.0 22.5 1.5 71.6 5.9 0.0 29.6 16.8 0.0
Cape Verde 21.0 0.7 79.1 99.4 0.0 79.1 2.3 3.4 79.1
Chile 98.6 4.4 22.9 61.9 33.6 1.4 10.3 3.8 1.2
China 99.4 16.3 0.8 83.7 0.0 0.6 26.9 5.3 0.5
Colombia 80.8 1.6 37.1 77.2 17.5 19.2 9.8 6.4 17.8
Congo (the Democratic Republic of the) 36.0 1.1 66.7 98.9 0.0 64.0 6.1 0.8 65.3
Congo-Brazzaville 60.2 0.0 69.6 100.0 0.0 39.8 10.4 13.6 42.2
Cook Islands 0.0 0.0 73.0 100.0 5.8 2.1 100.0
Costa Rica 89.7 2.6 41.5 75.3 4.9 10.3 9.0 6.7 9.0
Croatia 93.3 8.2 44.1 80.8 0.0 6.7 15.5 11.5 8.6
Curacao 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Cyprus 67.0 6.0 0.0 65.3 0.0 33.0 10.2 11.1 34.6
Czech Republic 98.2 1.2 8.3 88.0 1.0 1.9 9.5 3.8 2.1
Denmark 100.0 19.0 10.2 75.8 5.2 0.0 27.9 9.0 0.0
Dominican Republic 80.6 0.0 71.8 86.6 0.0 19.4 2.0 1.2 18.5
Ecuador 45.1 0.0 100.0 59.7 0.0 54.9 3.9 1.7 51.1
Egypt 85.6 33.8 26.2 66.2 0.0 14.4 40.3 38.0 14.5
El Salvador 73.5 12.9 100.0 66.0 0.0 26.5 14.1 8.7 29.3
Estonia 60.2 13.3 0.0 46.9 0.0 39.8 10.2 1.8 34.2
Ethiopia 44.3 15.8 59.0 48.8 0.0 55.7 14.9 4.9 55.7
Fiji 82.7 4.0 26.1 81.6 0.0 17.3 11.7 9.6 17.3
Finland 100.0 14.5 0.0 66.9 0.0 0.0 17.7 10.0 0.0
France 100.0 8.1 0.0 80.9 11.0 0.0 13.3 12.0 0.0
Georgia (Government of) 27.3 2.5 78.2 62.3 0.0 72.7 13.6 8.3 76.3
Germany 99.6 7.9 0.0 87.9 4.3 0.4 17.0 7.7 0.4
Ghana 68.8 8.0 52.0 73.6 18.4 31.2 11.2 8.0 30.0
Greece 21.0 12.6 1.1 82.4 0.4 79.0 13.8 30.2 76.7
Guatemala 79.4 0.0 46.6 81.3 0.0 20.6 4.1 1.3 19.7
Guernsey 100.0 18.5 0.0 81.5 0.0 0.0 17.4 2.3 0.0
Honduras 57.1 0.0 60.4 69.4 3.6 42.9 3.9 2.6 42.9
Hong Kong 100.0 0.0 6.2 95.2 0.0 0.0 11.1 0.6 0.0
Hungary 93.3 5.4 20.0 73.6 10.9 6.7 18.9 14.3 6.9
Iceland 100.0 8.0 20.1 60.0 23.7 0.0 16.4 8.3 0.0
India 94.3 4.0 5.7 91.2 0.0 5.7 5.6 3.3 5.4
Indonesia 86.9 0.9 33.5 85.1 0.0 13.1 6.6 2.8 11.1
Iraq 44.2 0.0 69.8 90.0 0.0 55.8 7.4 6.5 56.4
Ireland 80.4 8.4 0.0 88.8 0.4 19.6 8.8 6.0 18.9
Israel 100.0 2.1 16.6 45.8 47.4 0.0 10.5 8.1 0.0
Italy 99.2 5.8 0.8 76.7 11.4 0.8 14.9 19.9 1.6
Jamaica 74.6 0.5 61.7 73.5 2.6 25.4 6.8 6.2 25.4
Japan 100.0 16.6 0.0 80.2 0.8 0.0 33.2 83.1 0.0
Jersey (States of) 100.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jordan 75.9 0.6 45.0 87.1 0.0 24.1 12.0 12.7 25.4
Kazakhstan 75.4 0.0 41.4 85.2 5.9 24.6 5.7 1.5 27.0
Kenya 65.5 35.0 50.0 52.0 13.0 34.5 39.3 26.3 34.5
Korea (the Republic of) 100.0 0.0 99.9 0.1 0.0 7.5 3.1
Kuwait 100.0 0.0 70.6 100.0 0.0 0.0 29.4 2.9 0.0
Latvia 91.2 4.2 3.8 77.7 0.0 8.8 4.0 1.7 10.1
Lebanon 98.0 2.8 37.0 93.3 0.0 2.0 10.8 22.1 2.0
Liechtenstein N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. 0.0 N.M.
Lithuania 85.0 0.0 0.0 98.2 0.0 15.0 8.3 4.3 14.7
Luxembourg 97.6 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 2.4 1.0 0.2 1.0
Malaysia 99.4 1.8 3.2 98.2 0.0 0.6 9.6 6.0 0.5
Malta 98.2 9.5 0.0 90.5 0.0 1.8 14.9 8.3 1.6
Mexico 93.3 10.6 24.2 54.6 19.6 6.7 15.4 6.5 6.7
Mongolia 50.0 10.0 93.0 90.0 0.0 50.0 17.3 12.0 50.0
Montenegro 72.3 1.1 17.5 74.0 0.0 27.7 10.8 9.3 28.0
Montserrat 0.0 0.0 85.3 100.0 0.0 100.0 46.5 2.7 100.0
Morocco 84.9 4.0 24.7 88.5 0.0 15.1 11.6 9.2 16.3
Mozambique 39.0 5.0 75.0 71.3 23.8 61.0 7.3 7.7 62.0
Netherlands 100.0 14.7 0.0 85.2 0.0 0.0 17.7 8.3 0.0
New Zealand 100.0 7.3 1.5 79.3 13.4 0.0 13.7 6.8 0.0
Nicaragua 12.6 0.0 100.0 69.4 0.0 87.4 5.7 3.1 89.1
Nigeria 75.3 8.4 38.0 88.8 0.0 24.7 18.0 4.2 24.7
North Macedonia 78.1 10.6 77.1 74.5 0.0 21.9 21.1 11.4 21.6
Norway 100.0 11.5 0.0 88.5 0.0 0.0 25.8 3.7 0.0
Oman 87.1 2.5 79.7 69.6 0.0 12.9 10.6 8.9 8.1
Pakistan 72.7 16.6 33.7 83.4 0.0 27.3 22.4 19.7 27.0
Panama 78.5 0.9 100.0 80.8 0.0 21.5 5.4 3.3 22.0
Papua New Guinea 45.0 27.5 44.1 62.0 0.0 55.0 27.9 13.4 55.0
Paraguay 65.5 0.0 89.8 73.8 0.0 34.5 2.8 0.9 34.9
Peru 88.0 0.0 43.2 88.1 1.9 12.0 0.7 0.3 9.8
Philippines 87.7 14.2 30.7 77.2 0.0 12.3 18.1 10.5 12.3
Poland 93.5 1.5 25.4 74.0 2.9 6.5 11.6 5.7 8.7
Portugal 79.9 7.1 1.5 85.6 0.0 20.1 12.7 17.8 20.3
Qatar 100.0 0.0 56.2 100.0 0.0 0.0 16.6 10.5 0.0
Ras Al Khaimah (Emirate of) 100.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Romania 90.6 9.3 47.9 84.8 0.0 9.5 16.1 9.0 9.1
Russia 99.6 0.0 17.1 71.8 27.8 0.4 5.2 0.9 1.1
Rwanda 30.6 6.7 83.5 92.1 0.0 69.5 7.1 4.8 72.0
Saudi Arabia 100.0 20.0 41.3 60.0 20.0 0.0 21.1 8.0 0.0
Senegal 44.5 0.0 85.5 87.0 0.0 55.5 6.3 4.1 55.5
Serbia 57.5 0.0 69.5 85.0 0.0 42.5 8.3 4.8 42.5
Sharjah (Emirate of) 100.0 4.2 79.6 67.1 0.0 0.0 13.5 5.5 0.0
Singapore 100.0 12.2 0.0 87.8 0.0 0.0 15.0 22.9 0.0
Slovakia 92.9 2.8 3.7 97.2 0.0 7.1 4.3 2.6 8.3
Slovenia 97.8 0.4 3.9 98.9 0.0 2.2 9.3 6.9 4.5
South Africa 90.0 25.0 14.4 54.5 20.5 10.0 23.0 20.6 10.0
Spain 96.6 7.0 0.1 85.2 5.4 3.4 14.1 14.5 4.3
Sri Lanka 76.4 12.8 50.4 87.2 0.0 23.6 18.9 19.4 23.6
St. Helena N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. 0.0 N.M.
Suriname 64.1 5.0 67.6 90.1 0.0 35.9 8.8 9.6 30.8
Sweden 100.0 27.1 21.4 59.0 13.9 0.0 28.2 7.5 0.0
Switzerland 100.0 17.5 0.0 82.5 0.0 0.0 21.2 2.4 0.0
Taiwan 100.0 2.2 0.0 97.8 0.0 0.0 3.4 1.1 0.0
Tajikistan 11.3 2.7 83.7 97.3 0.0 88.7 5.9 3.1 88.0
Thailand 98.7 13.5 1.3 73.5 3.0 1.3 14.3 6.1 1.3
Togo 68.9 0.0 34.2 100.0 0.0 31.1 1.5 0.9 31.1
Trinidad and Tobago 81.0 7.0 38.0 74.4 0.0 19.0 12.9 8.0 18.8
Turkey 91.9 3.3 56.2 68.0 13.8 8.1 21.7 8.1 7.3
Turks and Caicos Islands 18.8 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 81.2 44.4 0.0 100.0
Uganda 35.5 10.0 64.6 81.0 9.0 64.6 10.2 5.5 65.0
Ukraine 76.2 5.3 61.8 72.2 6.4 23.8 16.0 9.6 27.0
United Kingdom 100.0 2.4 0.0 67.1 30.5 0.0 4.9 6.5 0.0
United States 100.0 23.7 0.0 66.4 7.5 0.0 30.8 32.9 0.0
Uruguay 88.0 0.0 54.5 56.0 39.9 12.0 4.3 2.9 11.9
Uzbekistan 14.2 1.8 96.2 53.0 0.0 85.8 5.9 1.9 85.4
Vietnam 40.0 20.0 65.0 53.6 0.0 60.0 24.9 10.2 60.0
Zambia 70.8 15.0 65.0 72.3 12.8 29.3 16.3 17.5 29.3
Breakdown by foreign currency rating category*
2020 2021
Commercial debt (% of total) Short-term debt (% of total) Foreign currency debt (% of total) Long-term fixed-rate debt (% of total debt) Inflation-indexed debt (% of total) Bi-/Multilateral debt (% of total) Rollover ratio (% of total debt) Rollover ratio (% of GDP) Bi-/Multilateral debt (% of total)
AAA 99.8 13.2 1.3 82.8 4.1 0.2 19.6 8.9 0.1
AA 99.8 18.2 0.6 69.6 10.3 0.2 24.6 24.0 0.2
A 99.5 15.3 1.2 81.1 1.4 0.5 29.4 21.4 0.7
BBB 94.0 5.6 11.6 79.6 7.5 6.0 11.4 7.3 6.1
BB 72.5 10.6 16.9 52.3 14.1 27.5 16.4 12.0 25.2
B 72.5 13.2 50.7 73.6 3.6 27.5 21.5 12.7 27.4
CCC 69.4 5.8 71.3 77.3 0.8 30.6 14.1 12.2 29.4
SD 93.0 4.7 42.0 90.1 1.9 7.0 11.5 20.3 7.0
f--Forecast. N/A.--Not applicable

Related Research

Primary Credit Analysts:Karen Vartapetov, PhD, Frankfurt + 49 693 399 9225;
karen.vartapetov@spglobal.com
Roberto H Sifon-arevalo, New York + 1 (212) 438 7358;
roberto.sifon-arevalo@spglobal.com
Secondary Contacts:Patricio E Vimberg, Buenos Aires + 54 11 4891 2132;
patricio.vimberg@spglobal.com
Michelle Bozem, Frankfurt;
michelle.bozem@spglobal.com
Research Contributor:Hari Krishan, Pune;
hari.krishan@spglobal.com

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