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Sovereign Debt 2021: EMEA Emerging Markets Borrowing To Remain Elevated Versus Pre-Pandemic Levels

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Sovereign Debt 2021: EMEA Emerging Markets Borrowing To Remain Elevated Versus Pre-Pandemic Levels

This report does not constitute a rating action.

Last year we saw a nearly 50% ($120 billion) increase in gross EMEA emerging markets (EM) sovereign commercial issuance, to $672 billion, as governments boosted fiscal support for firms and households affected by the global health emergency. We expect commercial debt issuance to remain elevated during 2021, albeit down by just over $100 billion to $571 billion--as fiscal support is only gradually withdrawn. Slightly over half of the sovereigns' gross borrowing will be to refinance maturing long-term debt, resulting in an estimated net borrowing requirement of $273 billion, compared to last year's $395 billion historical high.

We project that EMEA EM sovereigns' commercial debt will reach an equivalent of $3.2 trillion by end-2021, a year-on-year increase of $288 billion (see table 1). Their commercial debt is therefore poised to account for 40.7% of combined GDP, up sharply from 30.7% in 2016, as the costs of a contra-cyclical fiscal response to the global health emergency accumulate. Our projections are even more uncertain than in the past because budgetary performance will remain highly sensitive to the evolution of the virus.

Table 1

Sovereign Commercial Issuance And Debt
(Bil. USD) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021f
Gross long-term commercial borrowing 460.1 457.7 386.3 451.7 671.6 571.0
Of which amortization of maturing long-term debt 199.1 218.2 204.0 227.4 276.6 297.8
Of which net long-term commercial borrowing 261.0 239.4 182.2 224.3 395.0 273.2
Total commercial debt stock (year end) 2,142.4 2,308.5 2,308.7 2,562.6 2,948.7 3,236.5
Of which short-term debt 282.8 234.4 246.5 288.8 328.8 355.6
Of which debt with original maturity greater than one year 1,859.6 2,074.1 2,062.3 2,273.8 2,619.9 2,880.9
(% GDP)
Gross long-term commercial borrowing (% GDP) 6.6 6.0 4.8 5.5 9.0 7.2
Of which amortization of maturing long-term debt (% GDP) 2.8 2.9 2.5 2.8 3.7 3.7
Of which net long-term commercial borrowing (% GDP) 3.7 3.2 2.3 2.7 5.3 3.4
Total commecial debt stock (year end) (% GDP) 30.6 30.5 28.6 31.0 39.6 40.7
Of which short-term debt (% GDP) 4.0 3.1 3.1 3.5 4.4 4.5
Of which debt with original maturity greater than one year (% GDP) 26.5 27.4 25.5 27.5 35.2 36.3
f--Forecast

Chart 1

image

We forecast that just under half of commercial sovereign debt in 2021 will be issued by sovereigns with an investment-grade ('BBB-' or higher) foreign currency rating (see lower part of table 2). We expect the 'B' category will form the largest share of the total (around 40%, considerably above historical levels reflecting our expectation that Egypt and Turkey will increase issuance materially compared to 2020 ) followed by 'BBB' and 'A'. At year-end 2021, we expect that the share of outstanding commercial EMEA EM sovereign debt rated 'BB' or lower will decline somewhat as a percentage of the total, reflecting above all else still very substantial projected debt increases (albeit slightly down from 2020) by higher income issuers including Israel, Poland, Romania, Russia, and Saudi Arabia (see table 3 and chart 2).

Despite being the second largest economy after Russia in our survey group of 53 EMEA sovereigns, Turkey is once again set to be the largest EM sovereign issuer in the sample (currency equivalent of $78 billion up from $68 billion last year) with long-term gross commercial borrowing in 2019 accounting for an estimated 14% of the sample (see table 2). We forecast Egypt and Russia will borrow equivalent to $63 billion and $52 billion. Taken together, these three sovereigns will borrow over 33% of the total borrowed by the 53 sovereigns this report covers. Of the larger issuers, Egypt has both the highest debt-to-GDP ratio at an estimated 88% and the highest stock of short-term debt at 33% of the total (of all 53 issuers only Kenya has a higher share of short-term debt). As a consequence, Egypt's rollover ratio is by a large margin the highest of all 53 both as a percentage of GDP, and as a percentage of total debt. Given that 78% of Egypt's sovereign debt stock (equivalent to 69% of GDP) is domestic currency debt, and only about three quarters of this is tradeable, the rollover ratios may somewhat exaggerate refinancing risks (given the the willingness of domestic banks, both public and private, to refinance). Nevertheless, despite solid nonresident inflows into Egypt's bond market, the pandemic has been a setback to the authorities' ability to both lower the overall debt burden and manage down the cost of debt.

Chart 2

image

Table 2

Gross Commercial Long-Term Borrowing
Bil. $ 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Share of 2021f total borrowing (%) Total commercial borrowing 2021f

Abu Dhabi

5.0 10.0 0.0 13.9 15.0 10.0 1.8 571.0

Albania

0.7 0.9 1.5 0.9 1.9 1.3 0.2

Angola

10.2 23.0 25.6 27.4 15.3 14.0 2.5

Azerbaijan

0.1 2.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

Bahrain

4.4 6.3 2.8 3.3 7.4 6.7 1.2

Belarus

1.5 2.0 1.2 0.9 2.1 0.4 0.1

Benin

N.A. 1.0 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.1 0.4

Bosnia and Herzegovina

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Botswana

0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.1

Bulgaria

2.4 0.5 0.0 0.6 3.5 2.7 0.5

Burkina Faso

0.1 0.2 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.5 0.3

Cameroon

0.4 0.7 0.4 1.6 1.5 1.6 0.3

Cape Verde

0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0

Congo (D.R.)

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0

Congo-Brazzaville

0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.1

Croatia

2.6 6.1 3.7 5.1 8.4 4.2 0.7

Egypt

93.3 33.6 38.1 45.4 56.5 62.8 11.0

Ethiopia

3.4 3.2 1.1 1.2 0.3 1.7 0.3

Georgia

0.5 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.1

Ghana

4.5 4.8 4.9 6.3 9.4 7.7 1.3

Hungary

11.6 17.0 17.9 26.7 40.1 22.3 3.9

Iraq

13.6 6.3 0.3 10.2 20.5 12.9 2.3

Israel

25.9 28.5 27.9 34.9 70.4 50.7 8.9

Jordan

4.1 7.5 5.3 6.9 6.5 7.0 1.2

Kazakhstan

0.5 5.0 3.4 4.8 6.6 5.5 1.0

Kenya

3.1 6.3 3.3 2.8 5.9 6.5 1.1

Kuwait

8.1 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 0.6

Lebanon

13.0 15.7 18.6 11.0 9.2 8.1 1.4

Montenegro

0.5 0.3 0.9 0.9 1.3 0.0 0.0

Morocco

10.7 11.4 13.0 11.3 15.3 11.0 1.9

Mozambique

4.5 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1

Nigeria

10.1 10.7 37.2 11.0 15.4 14.7 2.6

North Macedonia

0.7 0.4 1.0 0.3 1.5 1.3 0.2

Oman

10.7 10.5 8.0 5.0 4.1 10.8 1.9

Poland

44.1 32.9 33.8 35.9 48.0 44.7 7.8

Qatar

14.6 19.5 0.0 21.2 24.1 7.4 1.3

Ras Al Khaimah

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Romania

12.4 12.3 16.8 18.8 33.1 25.2 4.4

Russia

18.7 37.1 21.4 38.4 74.1 52.1 9.1

Rwanda

0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0

Saudi Arabia

53.4 37.1 32.9 12.0 40.0 37.3 6.5

Senegal

0.6 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0

Serbia

3.8 3.4 2.9 5.0 5.3 2.7 0.5

Sharjah

1.5 1.6 3.2 3.3 3.0 4.1 0.7

South Africa

15.4 17.5 15.7 21.5 35.9 29.2 5.1

St. Helena

N.A. N.A. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Tajikistan

0.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Togo

N.A. N.A. 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0

Turkey

35.6 44.8 32.6 45.3 68.2 78.6 13.8

Uganda

0.2 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.8 0.3

Ukraine

11.2 16.4 4.6 10.8 11.9 11.5 2.0

Uzbekistan

N.A. 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.2

Zambia

1.7 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.6 1.1 0.2
Breakdown by foreign currency rating category
Bil. $ 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Share of 2021f total borrowing (%) Total commercial borrowing 2021f
AAA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 571.0
AA 53.6 72.9 27.9 70.1 109.5 71.5 12.5
A 97.4 70.0 66.7 47.9 88.0 82.1 14.4
BBB 60.6 91.2 79.7 109.2 184.9 127.8 22.4
BB 20.5 24.3 19.9 28.6 44.8 35.2 6.2
B 198.4 158.0 145.2 155.5 217.4 230.2 40.3
CCC 14.8 23.6 26.4 28.0 16.3 14.9 2.6
SD 14.7 17.8 20.6 12.5 10.8 9.3 1.6
e--Estimate. F--Forecast. N.A.--Not available

Table 3

Total Commercial Debt At Year-End (Long- And Short-Term)
Bil. $ 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Share of 2021f total commercial debt (%) Total commercial debt 2021f

Abu Dhabi

7.9 17.6 17.3 29.4 43.9 51.1 1.6 3,236.5

Albania

5.1 5.9 6.5 6.5 8.0 8.4 0.3

Angola

44.4 60.4 56.9 51.4 44.9 48.6 1.5

Azerbaijan

2.6 11.4 10.7 9.3 9.0 9.5 0.3

Bahrain

23.1 28.2 31.8 31.5 33.5 34.9 1.1

Belarus

6.0 6.9 6.1 6.3 7.3 7.0 0.2

Benin

2.9 3.8 3.5 4.3 5.3 0.2

Bosnia and Herzegovina

0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

Botswana

0.7 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.8 2.2 0.1

Bulgaria

11.9 12.4 11.1 10.9 14.5 16.9 0.5

Burkina Faso

1.2 1.9 2.3 3.0 3.8 4.7 0.1

Cameroon

3.4 4.5 4.7 5.2 5.9 6.8 0.2

Cape Verde

0.9 1.3 1.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.0

Congo (D.R.)

1.8 2.5 3.2 2.1 2.0 2.1 0.1

Congo-Brazzaville

1.8 3.7 6.4 6.5 6.8 6.8 0.2

Croatia

28.6 34.8 35.4 35.1 40.8 43.0 1.3

Egypt

356.1 184.9 225.9 251.9 292.1 314.0 9.7

Ethiopia

11.9 11.3 11.9 13.5 13.6 13.4 0.4

Georgia

1.7 2.0 2.6 2.0 2.3 2.3 0.1

Ghana

14.0 26.0 25.2 26.6 31.5 34.0 1.1

Hungary

77.4 94.7 94.5 93.1 115.6 115.1 3.6

Iraq

68.8 73.7 42.8 53.5 68.0 75.0 2.3

Israel

192.7 215.5 210.4 238.2 291.7 321.2 9.9

Jordan

29.6 31.0 27.5 29.5 32.1 34.3 1.1

Kazakhstan

19.3 23.4 23.6 27.3 29.2 32.0 1.0

Kenya

20.4 26.5 32.3 36.7 39.3 44.1 1.4

Kuwait

20.4 23.8 19.5 14.7 11.3 11.3 0.4

Lebanon

72.4 77.3 83.0 89.6 94.4 99.2 3.1

Montenegro

1.7 2.1 2.2 2.8 3.7 3.5 0.1

Morocco

55.5 62.7 64.5 66.3 74.4 79.3 2.5

Mozambique

5.8 6.9 8.8 5.0 5.7 5.8 0.2

Nigeria

46.1 49.2 44.5 58.2 61.2 65.7 2.0

North Macedonia

3.1 3.7 4.0 4.1 5.1 5.8 0.2

Oman

17.2 20.4 35.7 42.2 44.6 53.5 1.7

Poland

198.5 239.6 228.2 228.4 257.4 279.3 8.6

Qatar

67.9 83.0 95.3 109.5 108.5 99.5 3.1

Ras Al Khaimah

1.7 0.0 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.0

Romania

59.4 73.9 80.5 89.3 116.2 125.2 3.9

Russia

138.2 164.0 148.1 191.4 228.5 270.4 8.4

Rwanda

1.1 1.2 1.3 1.9 1.8 1.9 0.1

Saudi Arabia

84.4 118.1 128.4 159.8 217.4 262.2 8.1

Senegal

3.8 4.9 4.2 6.4 7.2 8.0 0.2

Serbia

15.0 15.5 14.2 14.5 17.7 18.6 0.6

Sharjah

4.0 4.9 6.7 9.1 11.3 13.6 0.4

South Africa

163.2 202.2 193.9 209.3 229.7 258.9 8.0

St. Helena

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Tajikistan

0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.0

Togo

0.6 2.6 3.0 3.2 0.1

Turkey

195.8 209.3 182.6 204.5 226.7 252.7 7.8

Uganda

3.6 3.3 4.0 4.2 5.1 6.3 0.2

Ukraine

43.4 47.2 49.8 58.3 59.3 61.9 1.9

Uzbekistan

0.0 0.0 1.1 2.1 2.8 0.1

Zambia

7.9 10.4 11.5 12.9 12.4 13.2 0.4
Breakdown by foreign currency rating category
Bil. $ 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Share of 2021f total commercial debt (%) Total commercial debt 2021f
AAA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3,236.5
AA 288.8 339.9 342.6 391.8 455.4 483.1 14.9
A 284.5 357.8 357.8 389.4 475.8 542.5 16.8
BBB 395.1 471.8 465.6 523.9 632.3 697.6 21.6
BB 185.6 234.8 225.5 240.2 265.9 297.9 9.2
B 854.2 743.1 747.5 849.8 953.1 1,039.7 32.1
CCC 53.8 73.4 75.3 65.0 59.4 63.4 2.0
SD 80.3 87.7 94.6 102.6 106.8 112.3 3.5
e--Estimate. F--Forecast. N.A.--Not available

After Egypt, the three EMEA sovereign issuers with the highest rollover ratios during 2021 as a percentage of GDP are Kenya (26%; reflecting high short term debt as well as an overall increase in debt levels), Bahrain, and South Africa. All three had seen rising debt to GDP even before the pandemic (we exclude Lebanon, given that is currently in default on its external debt, and its capacity to continue to service its local currency debt is captured by its local currency rating of CC/Negative/C).

Chart 3

image

Table 4

Central Government Rollover Ratios And Debt Structure (% Of Total Debt, Including Bi-/Multilateral)
2020 2021
Commercial debt (% of total) Short-term debt (% of total) Foreign currency debt (% of total) Long-term fixed-rate debt (% of total debt) Inflation-indexed debt (% of total) Bi-/Multilateral debt (% of total) Rollover ratio (% of total debt) Rollover ratio (% of GDP) Bi-/Multilateral debt (% of total)

Abu Dhabi

100.0 0.0 91.2 91.7 0.0 0.0 5.4 1.2 0.0

Albania

68.6 17.1 47.4 60.5 0.0 31.4 26.1 18.8 31.1

Angola

71.3 2.7 76.4 97.3 0.0 28.7 11.9 13.3 28.7

Azerbaijan

63.2 2.3 57.9 97.7 0.0 36.9 8.5 2.8 34.5

Bahrain

84.1 13.3 64.0 69.3 0.0 15.9 21.0 24.2 19.0

Belarus

32.8 0.0 97.6 61.4 0.0 67.2 8.3 3.3 67.2

Benin

58.5 0.2 55.5 98.1 0.0 41.5 19.2 9.3 36.2

Bosnia and Herzegovina

1.0 0.0 100.0 60.3 0.0 99.0 8.1 1.9 99.2

Botswana

49.9 8.5 50.2 24.7 0.0 50.2 21.8 5.1 44.6

Bulgaria

87.3 0.0 82.2 98.1 0.0 12.7 3.4 0.9 13.2

Burkina Faso

47.0 5.6 47.9 94.4 0.0 53.1 14.6 7.5 49.4

Cameroon

34.4 2.0 76.0 98.0 0.0 65.6 9.8 4.5 64.6

Cape Verde

21.0 0.7 79.1 99.4 0.0 79.1 2.3 3.4 79.1

Congo (D.R.)

36.0 1.1 66.7 98.9 0.0 64.0 6.1 0.8 65.3

Congo-Brazzaville

60.2 0.0 69.6 100.0 0.0 39.8 10.4 13.6 42.2

Croatia

93.3 8.2 44.1 80.8 0.0 6.7 15.5 11.5 8.6

Egypt

85.6 33.8 26.2 66.2 0.0 14.4 40.3 38.0 14.5

Ethiopia

44.3 15.8 59.0 48.8 0.0 55.7 14.9 4.9 55.7

Georgia

27.3 2.5 78.2 62.3 0.0 72.7 13.6 8.3 76.3

Ghana

68.8 8.0 52.0 73.6 18.4 31.2 11.2 8.0 30.0

Hungary

93.3 5.4 20.0 73.6 10.9 6.7 18.9 14.3 6.9

Iraq

44.2 0.0 69.8 90.0 0.0 55.8 7.4 6.5 56.4

Israel

100.0 2.1 16.6 45.8 47.4 0.0 10.5 8.1 0.0

Jordan

75.9 0.6 45.0 87.1 0.0 24.1 12.0 12.7 25.4

Kazakhstan

75.4 0.0 41.4 85.2 5.9 24.6 5.7 1.5 27.0

Kenya

65.5 35.0 50.0 52.0 13.0 34.5 39.3 26.3 34.5

Kuwait

100.0 0.0 70.6 100.0 0.0 0.0 29.4 2.9 0.0

Lebanon

98.0 2.8 37.0 93.3 0.0 2.0 10.8 22.1 2.0

Montenegro

72.3 1.1 17.5 74.0 0.0 27.7 10.8 9.3 28.0

Morocco

84.9 4.0 24.7 88.5 0.0 15.1 11.6 9.2 16.3

Mozambique

39.0 5.0 75.0 71.3 23.8 61.0 7.3 7.7 62.0

Nigeria

75.3 8.4 38.0 88.8 0.0 24.7 18.0 4.2 24.7

North Macedonia

78.1 10.6 77.1 74.5 0.0 21.9 21.1 11.4 21.6

Oman

87.1 2.5 79.7 69.6 0.0 12.9 10.6 8.9 8.1

Poland

93.5 1.5 25.4 74.0 2.9 6.5 11.6 5.7 8.7

Qatar

100.0 0.0 56.2 100.0 0.0 0.0 16.6 10.5 0.0

Ras Al Khaimah

100.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Romania

90.6 9.3 47.9 84.8 0.0 9.5 16.1 9.0 9.1

Russia

99.6 0.0 17.1 71.8 27.8 0.4 5.2 0.9 1.1

Rwanda

30.6 6.7 83.5 92.1 0.0 69.5 7.1 4.8 72.0

Saudi Arabia

100.0 20.0 41.3 60.0 20.0 0.0 21.1 8.0 0.0

Senegal

44.5 0.0 85.5 87.0 0.0 55.5 6.3 4.1 55.5

Serbia

57.5 0.0 69.5 85.0 0.0 42.5 8.3 4.8 42.5

Sharjah

100.0 4.2 79.6 67.1 0.0 0.0 13.5 5.5 0.0

South Africa

90.0 25.0 14.4 54.5 20.5 10.0 23.0 20.6 10.0

St. Helena

N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. 0.0 N.M.

Tajikistan

11.3 2.7 83.7 97.3 0.0 88.7 5.9 3.1 88.0

Togo

68.9 0.0 34.2 100.0 0.0 31.1 1.5 0.9 31.1

Turkey

91.9 3.3 56.2 68.0 13.8 8.1 21.7 8.1 7.3

Uganda

35.5 10.0 64.6 81.0 9.0 64.6 10.2 5.5 65.0

Ukraine

76.2 5.3 61.8 72.2 6.4 23.8 16.0 9.6 27.0

Uzbekistan

14.2 1.8 96.2 53.0 0.0 85.8 5.9 1.9 85.4

Zambia

70.8 15.0 65.0 72.3 12.8 29.3 16.3 17.5 29.3
Breakdown by foreign currency rating category
2020 2021
Commercial debt (% of total) Short-term debt (% of total) Foreign currency debt (% of total) Long-term fixed-rate debt (% of total debt) Inflation-indexed debt (% of total) Bi-/Multilateral debt (% of total) Rollover ratio (% of total debt) Rollover ratio (% of GDP) Bi-/Multilateral debt (% of total)
AAA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
AA 100.0 1.3 34.5 64.5 30.4 0.0 11.7 6.1 0.0
A 96.4 9.6 32.6 67.9 10.4 3.6 15.9 6.8 4.7
BBB 92.6 3.9 30.3 78.4 11.6 7.4 11.1 3.5 7.9
BB 80.6 19.8 27.9 59.7 15.8 19.4 20.0 14.5 19.6
B 73.6 13.6 51.0 72.7 4.4 26.4 22.7 12.7 26.4
CCC 62.9 2.6 74.8 93.7 3.7 37.1 10.7 8.3 37.5
SD 93.8 4.7 41.3 90.1 2.0 6.2 11.6 20.9 6.2
f--Forecast. N/A.--Not applicable

Chart 4

image

Factors We Consider In Our Estimates

Our estimates focus on debt issued by a central government in its own name. We exclude local government and social security debt, as well as debt issued by other public bodies and government-guaranteed obligations. In terms of commercial debt instruments, our estimates for long-term borrowing include bonds with tenors of more than one year, issued either on publicly listed markets or sold as private placements, as well as commercial bank loans.

In addition to commercial debt, some of the estimates we use in this study also report on bilateral and multilateral official debt. We do not include government debt that may be issued by some central banks for monetary policy purposes. All reported forecast figures are our own estimates and do not necessarily reflect the issuers' projections. We factor in our expectations regarding central government deficits, our assessment of governments' potential extra-budgetary funding needs, and our estimates of debt maturities in 2020. Estimates that we express in dollars are subject to exchange-rate variations.

Table 5

Sovereign Ratings
Local currency ratings Foreign currency ratings*

Abu Dhabi

AA/Stable/A-1+ AA/Stable/A-1+

Albania

B+/Stable/B B+/Stable/B

Angola

CCC+/Stable/C CCC+/Stable/C

Azerbaijan

BB+/Stable/B BB+/Stable/B

Bahrain

B+/Stable/B B+/Stable/B

Belarus

B/Negative/B B/Negative/B

Benin

B+/Stable/B B+/Stable/B

Bosnia and Herzegovina

B/Stable/B B/Stable/B

Botswana

BBB+/Negative/A-2 BBB+/Negative/A-2

Bulgaria

BBB/Stable/A-2 BBB/Stable/A-2

Burkina Faso

B/Stable/B B/Stable/B

Cameroon

B-/Stable/B B-/Stable/B

Cape Verde

B-/Stable/B B-/Stable/B

Congo (D.R.)

CCC+/Stable/C CCC+/Stable/C

Congo-Brazzaville

CCC+/Stable/C CCC+/Stable/C

Croatia

BBB-/Stable/A-3 BBB-/Stable/A-3

Egypt

B/Stable/B B/Stable/B

Ethiopia

B-/Watch Neg/B B-/Watch Neg/B

Georgia

BB/Negative/B BB/Negative/B

Ghana

B-/Stable/B B-/Stable/B

Hungary

BBB/Stable/A-2 BBB/Stable/A-2

Iraq

B-/Stable/B B-/Stable/B

Israel

AA-/Stable/A-1+ AA-/Stable/A-1+

Jordan

B+/Stable/B B+/Stable/B

Kazakhstan

BBB-/Stable/A-3 BBB-/Stable/A-3

Kenya

B+/Negative/B B+/Negative/B

Kuwait

AA-/Negative/A-1+ AA-/Negative/A-1+

Lebanon

CC/Negative/C --/--/SD

Montenegro

B+/Negative/B B+/Negative/B

Morocco

BBB-/Negative/A-3 BBB-/Negative/A-3

Mozambique

B-/Stable/B CCC+/Stable/C

Nigeria

B-/Stable/B B-/Stable/B

North Macedonia

BB-/Stable/B BB-/Stable/B

Oman

B+/Stable/B B+/Stable/B

Poland

A/Stable/A-1 A-/Stable/A-2

Qatar

AA-/Stable/A-1+ AA-/Stable/A-1+

Ras Al Khaimah

A-/Stable/A-2 A-/Stable/A-2

Romania

BBB-/Negative/A-3 BBB-/Negative/A-3

Russia

BBB/Stable/A-2 BBB-/Stable/A-3

Rwanda

B+/Negative/B B+/Negative/B

Saudi Arabia

A-/Stable/A-2 A-/Stable/A-2

Senegal

B+/Stable/B B+/Stable/B

Serbia

BB+/Stable/B BB+/Stable/B

Sharjah

BBB-/Stable/A-3 BBB-/Stable/A-3

South Africa

BB/Stable/B BB-/Stable/B

St. Helena

BBB-/Stable/A-3 BBB-/Stable/A-3

Tajikistan

B-/Stable/B B-/Stable/B

Togo

B/Stable/B B/Stable/B

Turkey

BB-/Stable/B B+/Stable/B

Uganda

B/Stable/B B/Stable/B

Ukraine

B/Stable/B B/Stable/B

Uzbekistan

BB-/Negative/B BB-/Negative/B

Zambia

CCC-/Negative/C --/--/SD
*Ratings as of March 1, 2021

Related Research

Primary Credit Analyst:Frank Gill, Madrid + 34 91 788 7213;
frank.gill@spglobal.com
Secondary Contacts:Patricio E Vimberg, Buenos Aires + 54 11 4891 2132;
patricio.vimberg@spglobal.com
Michelle Bozem, Frankfurt;
michelle.bozem@spglobal.com
Research Contributor:Hari Krishan, CRISIL Global Analytical Center, an S&P affiliate, Mumbai
Additional Contact:EMEA Sovereign and IPF;
SovereignIPF@spglobal.com

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