Overview
- We have reviewed E-CARAT 9 PLC's performance by conducting our analysis of the transaction's underlying assets and structural features.
- Following our review, we have raised to 'AAA (sf)' from 'AA (sf)' our rating on the class B notes, and affirmed our 'AAA (sf)' rating on the class A notes.
- E-CARAT 9 is an ABS backed by a portfolio of U.K. auto loan receivables originated by Vauxhall Finance PLC to private retail and commercial customers to finance new and used vehicles. The finance contracts are either conditional sale agreements or personal contract purchase agreements.
LONDON (S&P Global Ratings) Feb. 25, 2021--S&P Global Ratings today raised to 'AAA (sf)' from 'AA (sf)' its credit rating on E-CARAT 9 PLC's class B notes. At the same time, we have affirmed our 'AAA (sf)' rating on the class A notes.
Today's rating actions follow our review of the transaction's performance and the application of our current criteria, and reflect our assessment of the payment structure according to the transaction documents (see "Related Criteria").
The transaction has been amortizing strictly sequentially since closing in February 2018, resulting in a significant increase in enhancement for the class A and B notes (see "New Issue: E-Carat 9 PLC," published on Feb. 19, 2018). As of the January 2021 servicer report, the pool factor had declined to 18.0%, and the available credit enhancement for the class A and B notes had increased to over 100.0% and 48.7%, respectively, from 18.8% and 9.6% at closing.
The transaction has now seasoned for approximately three years since closing. Given the current pool factor, the observed gross losses from hostile terminations (HT), currently at 0.8% of the initial pool balance, have been better than our expectations at closing. In addition, in the initial months following COVID-19, we did not observe any material change in borrower defaults. The historical percentage of customers reported as affected by COVID-19 has been moderate in our view, at 9.2% of receivables in the latest servicer report. Additionally, the outstanding principal balance of COVID-19-affected receivables is steadily declining, currently about 30% below its peak observed in June 2020. This balance also includes borrowers who resumed payments on their contracts in full but remain flagged as affected by COVID for reporting purposes. About 87.4% of all COVID-19 affected receivables are current.
Following our review, we lowered our base-case HT assumption to 1.75% from 2.73% at closing, and increased our base-case voluntary termination assumption (VT) to 3.0% from 1.0%. Gross losses from VT are currently at 1.9% of the initial pool balance.
Our HT and VT multiples remain unchanged, at 4.9x and 2.5x, respectively, in our 'AAA' rating scenario. We have also maintained the same recovery assumptions as at closing.
Lastly, as the collateral backing the notes comprises U.K. personal contract purchase (PCP) agreements, representing 65.24%, of the outstanding portfolio, the transaction is exposed to residual value (RV) risk. We have maintained the same RV loss assumption as at closing. Borrowers under PCP contracts may return their vehicle in lieu of the final balloon payment. Therefore, the transaction is exposed to RV risk if the returned vehicle's sale value is lower than the RV implied by the balloon amount.
We have performed our cash flow analysis to test the effect of the amended credit assumptions and deleveraging in the structure.
Our cash flow analysis indicates that the available credit enhancement for the class A and B notes is sufficient to withstand the credit and cash flow stresses that we apply at the 'AAA' rating level.
There are no rating constraints under our operational risk criteria. In addition, there are no rating constraints under our counterparty or structured finance sovereign risk criteria, and legal risks continue to be adequately mitigated, in our view.
S&P Global Ratings believes there remains high, albeit moderating, uncertainty about the evolution of the coronavirus pandemic and its economic effects. Vaccine production is ramping up and rollouts are gathering pace around the world. Widespread immunization, which will help pave the way for a return to more normal levels of social and economic activity, looks to be achievable by most developed economies by the end of the third quarter. However, some emerging markets may only be able to achieve widespread immunization by year-end or later. We use these assumptions about vaccine timing in assessing the economic and credit implications associated with the pandemic (see our research here: www.spglobal.com/ratings). As the situation evolves, we will update our assumptions and estimates accordingly.
Given the dynamic/fluid circumstances associated with the coronavirus pandemic, we will continually evaluate and update this disclaimer as warranted.
E-Carat 9 securitizes a portfolio of auto loan receivables, which Vauxhall Finance granted to its U.K. clients.
Related Criteria
- Criteria | Structured Finance | General: Global Framework For Payment Structure And Cash Flow Analysis Of Structured Finance Securities, Dec. 22, 2020
- Criteria | Structured Finance | General: Counterparty Risk Framework: Methodology And Assumptions, March 8, 2019
- Legal Criteria: Structured Finance: Asset Isolation And Special-Purpose Entity Methodology, March 29, 2017
- Criteria | Structured Finance | ABS: Methodology And Assumptions For European Auto ABS, Oct. 15, 2015
- Criteria | Structured Finance | General: Global Framework For Assessing Operational Risk In Structured Finance Transactions, Oct. 9, 2014
- General Criteria: Methodology Applied To Bank Branch-Supported Transactions, Oct. 14, 2013
- Criteria | Structured Finance | General: Global Derivative Agreement Criteria, June 24, 2013
- General Criteria: Global Investment Criteria For Temporary Investments In Transaction Accounts, May 31, 2012
- General Criteria: Principles Of Credit Ratings, Feb. 16, 2011
- Criteria | Structured Finance | General: Methodology For Servicer Risk Assessment, May 28, 2009
- Criteria | Structured Finance | ABS: European Consumer Finance Criteria, March 10, 2000
Related Research
- Economic Research: Policy Is Keeping The Impact Of The Second COVID Wave At Bay, Dec. 16, 2020
- European ABS: Initial Liquidity Risk Evolves To Medium-Term Credit Risk In The Wake Of COVID-19, Dec. 8, 2020
- European ABS And RMBS: Assessing The Credit Effects Of COVID-19, March 30, 2020
- New Issue: E-Carat 9 PLC, Feb. 19, 2018
- 2017 EMEA ABS Scenario And Sensitivity Analysis, July 6, 2017
- Global Structured Finance Scenario And Sensitivity Analysis 2016: The Effects Of The Top Five Macroeconomic Factors, Dec. 16, 2016
- European Structured Finance Scenario And Sensitivity Analysis 2016: The Effects Of The Top Five Macroeconomic Factors, Dec. 16, 2016
Primary Credit Analyst: | Marta O'Gorman, London + 44 20 7176 2523; marta.ogorman@spglobal.com |
Secondary Contact: | Amit Einhorn, London; amit.einhorn@spglobal.com |
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