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Quote Book: Gleaning Sector Trends From Rating Actions For BSL CLO Market Participants (As Of Nov. 12, 2020)

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U.S. Residential Mortgage And Housing Outlook: Positive Momentum Carries Into 2021

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Servicer Evaluation: Brean Real Estate Solutions LLC

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Quote Book: Gleaning Sector Trends From Rating Actions For BSL CLO Market Participants (As Of Jan. 15, 2021)

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SF Credit Brief: Review Of 2020 U.S. CLO Insights Index Published


Quote Book: Gleaning Sector Trends From Rating Actions For BSL CLO Market Participants (As Of Nov. 12, 2020)

U.S. broadly syndicated collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) are backed primarily by broadly syndicated loans (BSLs) issued by U.S. companies. The CLO group within S&P Global Ratings' U.S. Structured Finance department believes that a review of the recent rating action reports published by U.S. Corporate Ratings can provide insights on developing sector trends. Accordingly, we have compiled a list of key quotes (lightly edited) from recently published Corporate Ratings reports on issuers with loans held in BSL CLOs (see table 1). We note that the quotes highlighted below are company specific and, therefore, may not apply to every issuer within a given sector. Nonetheless, it is our view that this at-a-glance snapshot view of the sector will add value to CLO market participants.

Table 1

Key Quotes
Rating
Issuer GIC sector To From Quotes from rating actions this past week
Diamond Sports Group LLC Media BB-/Watch Neg BB-/Negative "While its three major sports leagues (i.e., MLB, NHL, and NBA) managed to complete shortened 2020 seasons, all three face an uncertain schedule in 2021 and could face additional cancellations and delays. In addition, overall pay-TV video subscriber continues to trend downward, which we believe will hurt regional sports networks more than other TV networks."
Fetch Holdco LLC Household products B-/Stable B-/Negative "Pet adoption increased meaningfully after the virus outbreak and implementation of shelter-in-place orders." "We view e-commerce capabilities as critical to the long-term viability of industry competitors." "However, the company is also vulnerable to the fast-changing environment and will likely face more intense competition in the channel from smaller players, given it is easier for upstart brands to reach consumers online."
Par Petroleum LLC Oil, gas, and consumable fuels B/Negative B+/Stable "While its utilization has been gradually improving from the April lows, the recovery in the demand for travel and jet fuel remains muted, which indicates that crack spreads could stay below mid-cycle levels for longer than we previously forecast. We expect a gradual recovery in the refining sector beginning in the second half of 2021 as the effects of the pandemic subside, though our level of uncertainty remains high."
Vantage Specialty Chemicals Inc. Chemicals CCC+/Negative B-/Negative "Following a lackluster 2019 when weather interruptions, softened personal care demand, and customer inventory rationalizations hurt Vantage's earnings, the company has seen its high-end personal care business and industrial end markets impaired by the economic shutdowns related to COVID-19."
Alliance HealthCare Services Health care providers and services CCC+/Stable SD "Diagnostic imaging is a slow-expanding, mature industry. We anticipate continued reimbursement pressures along with the ongoing shift away from hospital-based services. Large third-party commercial payers have increasingly directed patients to lower-cost, free-standing outpatient diagnostic imaging facilities."
Realogy Group LLC Real estate management and development B+/Stable B/Negative "The U.S. real estate market rebound was faster than anticipated as low-rate financing and strong consumer demand drove home sales volumes and prices up, though the sustainability of these trends remains uncertain heading into 2021." "Stagnating, high unemployment and concerns around job security pose key risks as home prices continue to appreciate causing affordability to remain a concern, particularly as the financial disparity between high-income and low-income households continues to intensify."
Atkins Nutritionals Holdings II Inc. Food products B+/Stable B+/Negative "COVID-19 shopping patterns could continue to pressure operating performance and we believe the largest risk to our forecast is a continued rise in COVID-19 cases and increased restrictions. Stay-at-home orders and store closures have led to changes in consumer buying patterns, which reduced demand for on-the-go products such as bars and RTD shakes. Consumers are purchasing staples to create meals at home because that is where most meal consumption is taking place..." "In addition, consumers are going into retail locations with specific items in mind and are being more efficient as they go through the store to decrease their exposure to others."
Bass Pro Group LLC Specialty retail B+/Stable B/Negative "The company saw strong demand for its products amid the COVID-19 pandemic as consumers shifted their purchases toward gear for socially distanced entertainment options and hobbies." "This includes higher consumer spending on outdoor products, sporting goods, and firearms this year. However, we expect these product categories to experience lower demand levels in 2021."
Carnival Corp. Hotels, restaurants, and leisure B/Negative BB-/Watch Neg "Further, following an increase in coronavirus cases in Germany and subsequent tightening of restrictions in that country, AIDA announced a further pause in its operations for the month of November. We believe this illustrates that cruise operators will continue to face heightened risks of additional suspensions even once they are allowed to resume operations in the absence of a widely available vaccine or effective treatment, which could be around mid-calendar-year 2021 under our base case assumptions."
The Goodyear Tire and Rubber Co. Auto components B+/Negative B+/Watch NEG "...global tire volumes improved." "As government lockdowns were lifted, economic activity rose and miles driven improved around the world." "We think recent price moves by major tire makers will help the industry continue to recover past increases in raw material costs."
Screenvision LLC Entertainment CCC+/Negative B/Negative "The coronavirus pandemic will continue to affect theater attendance and consumer behavior well into 2021. We anticipate U.S. cinema attendance will not begin to recover until 2021, which is later than we previously expected. This is due to the ongoing pandemic, the continued delays of film releases by major studios, and the risk that global authorities may impose stricter lockdown measures to limit local resurgences of the virus."
Corsair Group (Cayman) L.P. Technology hardware, storage, and peripherals B+/Stable B/Stable "Overall, industry trends remain robust (demonstrated by stronger competitor guidance), and we believe that the upcoming console launches should provide strong momentum for Corsair going into the back half of 2020. That said, this will likely lead to tougher year-over-year comps, and we remain cautious heading into 2021. Moreover, there could be another economic downturn due to a second COVID-19 wave, which could reduce consumer spending for a prolonged period and lead to weaker-than-expected performance."
GIC--Global industry classification. MLB--Major League Baseball. NBA--National Basketball Assoc. NHL--National Hockey League.

We are also including a table listing all rating actions on issuers with loans held in U.S. BSL CLOs that have taken place over the past two weeks. For each issuer, we include the rank as of the end of third quarter, to give an indication of how widely held the issuer's loans are across U.S. BSL CLOs rated by S&P Global Ratings. U.S. BSL CLOs, collectively, have had exposure to over 1,500 parent issuers operating across several different global industry classification (GIC) sectors. (For the list of top 250 issuers as of third-quarter 2020, see "The Most Widely Referenced Corporate Obligors In Rated U.S. BSL CLOs: Third-Quarter 2020," published Oct. 2, 2020.)

Table 2

Rating Actions Over Past Two Weeks
On corporate issuers with loans held in BSL CLOs
Rating
Action date Issuer GIC Sector To From Action PR Links Rank within U.S. BSL CLOs As of third-quarter 2020
10/28/2020 Diamond Sports Group LLC Media BB-/Watch Neg BB-/Negative Placed on Watch Neg Link 8
10/28/2020 Fetch Holdco LLC Household products B-/Stable B-/Negative Affirmed Link 1,443
10/28/2020 LABL Inc Commercial services and supplies B/Negative B-/Stable Upgrade Link 460
10/29/2020 Catalent Inc. Life sciences tools and services BB/Stable BB-/Stable Upgrade Link 957
10/29/2020 Leslie's Poolmart Inc. Specialty retail B/Watch Pos B/Stable Placed on Watch Pos Link 516
10/29/2020 Topgolf International Inc. Leisure products CCC+/Watch Pos CCC+/Negative Placed on Watch Pos Link 684
10/30/2020 Advantage Sales and Marketing Inc. Media B/Stable CCC+/Watch Pos Upgrade Link 141
10/30/2020 Moda Ingleside Energy Center LLC Oil, gas, and consumable fuels BB/Stable BB-/Stable Upgrade Link 836
11/2/2020 IRB Holding Corp. Hotels, restaurants, and leisure B/Watch Pos B/Negative Placed on Watch Pos Link 56
11/2/2020 Par Petroleum LLC Oil, gas, and consumable fuels B/Negative B+/Stable Downgrade Link 1,364
11/2/2020 TortoiseEcofin Borrower LLC Capital markets CCC+/Stable B/Negative Downgrade Link 909
11/2/2020 Vantage Specialty Chemicals Inc. Chemicals CCC+/Negative B-/Negative Downgrade Link 358
11/3/2020 Alliance HealthCare Services Health care providers and services CCC+/Stable SD Upgrade Link 839
11/4/2020 FTS International Inc. Energy equipment and services NR D Withdrawal Link 1,220
11/4/2020 Corsair Group (Cayman) L.P. Technology hardware, storage, and peripherals B+/Stable B/Stable Upgrade Link 913
11/4/2020 National CineMedia LLC Media CCC+/Negative B/Negative Downgrade Link 815
11/4/2020 Realogy Group LLC Real estate management and development B+/Stable B/Negative Upgrade Link 191
11/4/2020 Screenvision LLC Entertainment CCC+/Negative B/Negative Downgrade Link 1,324
11/5/2020 Atkins Nutritionals Holdings II Inc. Food products B+/Stable B+/Negative Affirmed Link 608
11/5/2020 Bass Pro Group LLC Specialty retail B+/Stable B/Negative Upgrade Link 27
11/5/2020 Carnival Corp. Hotels, restaurants, and leisure B/Negative BB-/Watch Neg Downgrade Link 457
11/5/2020 Gateway Casinos and Entertainment Ltd. Hotels, restaurants, and leisure CCC+/Negative CCC+/Watch Neg Affirmed; off Watch Neg Link 844
11/6/2020 CDRH Parent Inc. Health care providers and services SD CCC-/Negative Downgrade Link 1,153
11/6/2020 PetSmart Inc. Specialty retail B-/Positive B/Stable Downgrade Link 178
11/6/2020 The Goodyear Tire and Rubber Co. Auto components B+/Negative B+/Watch NEG Affirmed Link 1,206
BSL--Broadly syndicated loan. CLO--Collateralized loan obligation. GIC--Global industry classification. NR--Not rated. SD--Selective default. PR--Press release.

This report does not constitute a rating action.

Primary Credit Analysts:Daniel Hu, FRM, New York + 1 (212) 438 2206;
daniel.hu@spglobal.com
Robert E Schulz, CFA, New York (1) 212-438-7808;
robert.schulz@spglobal.com
Secondary Contact:Bryan A Ayala, New York + 1 (212) 438 9012;
bryan.ayala@spglobal.com
CLO Sector Lead:Stephen A Anderberg, New York (1) 212-438-8991;
stephen.anderberg@spglobal.com
Analytical Manager, Leveraged Finance:Ramki Muthukrishnan, New York (1) 212-438-1384;
ramki.muthukrishnan@spglobal.com

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