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In This List
COMMENTS

Credit Trends: Risky Credits: The Number Of 'CCC' Category Ratings Stabilizes

COMMENTS

Default, Transition, and Recovery: Distressed Exchanges Boost Corporate Defaults In The Second Half Of 2020

COMMENTS

Credit Trends: U.S. Corporate Downgrades Fell To Pre-Pandemic Levels In The Third Quarter

COMMENTS

Default, Transition, and Recovery: 2019 Annual Asia Corporate Default And Rating Transition Study

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Default, Transition, and Recovery: The Travel And Entertainment Business Faces Elevated Default Risk Despite Easing Market Pressures


Credit Trends: Risky Credits: The Number Of 'CCC' Category Ratings Stabilizes

(Editor's Note: Our "Risky Credits" series focuses on U.S. and Canadian 'CCC' rated corporate issuers, as well as their first cousins rated 'B-'. Because the majority of defaults are from companies rated in the 'CCC' category, these and 'B-' rated companies with negative outlooks or ratings on CreditWatch negative are even more important to monitor in this unprecedented downturn and uncertain recovery.)

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On This Month's Front Burner

Negative actions slow:  Negative rating actions in the U.S. and Canada slowed in August, with only 32, down from 48 in July and 374 in April, when state and local governments imposed stringent social distancing measures across the U.S. and Canada. The majority (69%) of negative rating actions in August were downgrades, and most followed a previous negative rating action since March, such as an outlook revision or CreditWatch placement (see "COVID-19 Impact: Key Takeaways From Our Articles").

Defaults slow:  There were 11 defaults in August, down from an average of about 31 defaults per month over the previous four months. All 11 defaults in August were rated in the 'CCC' and lower rating categories, illustrating the high default risk associated with this part of the ratings spectrum. Five companies rated in these categories have defaulted so far in September (as of Sept. 9).

Transitioning to 'CCC':  Transitions into the 'CCC' category from 'B-' slowed as well, with only 0.8% of 'B-' rated issuers transitioning into the 'CCC' rating category--the lowest monthly transition pace since October 2018. The number of 'CCC' category ratings on U.S. and Canadian companies steadied in August as both the pace of companies entering the rating category and defaults slowed.

Spreads tighten:  U.S. 'B' and 'CCC' composite spreads continued to tighten in July, by 7% and 2% to 618 and 1,094, respectively, as investors' risk aversion toward 'B-' rated debt lessens. As credit spreads continue to trend toward precrisis levels, some 'CCC' rated issuers are even able to access capital markets to counter drastically reduced revenue and bolster liquidity. However, these issuers are most at risk for potential downgrades if financing conditions begin to worsen.

Bids recover:  The average bid of 'CCC' rated loans has recovered 30% from its 2020 low, while that of 'B' rated loans has recovered 25%. Those bids are now only 1% and 2% below their levels at the end of June, respectively.

CLO collateral actions:  Since the beginning of March, COVID-19 containment measures have caused significant declines in revenue and earnings for many of the corporate loan issuers with loans held in U.S. broadly syndicated loan (BSL) collateralized loan obligations (CLOs). During the first half of 2020, S&P Global Ratings downgraded or placed on CreditWatch negative about one-third of the issuers whose loans are held in U.S. BSL CLOs. Some of these companies came to capital markets to raise debt-financed liquidity to survive though the pandemic; the additional debt and decline in earnings have resulted in leverage increasing by 1.3x on average relative to pre-COVID-19 levels. We have resolved substantially all of our COVID-19-related CreditWatch placements on U.S. CLOs. Future CLO rating actions will be a function of changes to the ratings on U.S. corporate loan issuers and loan defaults.

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Top 20 Rating Changes To The 'CCC' Category From 'B-' By Debt Amount (Year To Date)
Rating date Issuer Country Sector Rating to Rating from Debt amount (mil. US$)
4/15/2020

Finastra Ltd.

Cayman Islands High technology CCC+ B- 36,029
3/24/2020

Bombardier Inc.

Canada Aerospace and defense CCC+ B- 9,287
4/17/2020

First Quantum Minerals Ltd

Canada Metals, mining, and steel CCC+ B- 6,000
7/21/2020

Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings Inc.

U.S. Media and entertainment CCC+ B- 5,835
4/27/2020

Hertz Global Holdings Inc.

U.S. Transportation CCC- B- 5,050
5/14/2020

Nabors Industries Ltd

Bermuda Oil and gas exploration and production CCC+ B- 3,725
4/10/2020

GTT Communications Inc.

U.S. Telecommunications CCC+ B- 3,415
4/8/2020

Advantage Solutions Inc.

U.S. Consumer products CCC+ B- 3,345
4/8/2020

Varsity Brands Holding Co Inc.

U.S. Consumer products CCC+ B- 2,800
3/27/2020

CDS Group

Canada Media and entertainment CCC- B- 2,745
4/30/2020

SM Energy Co.

U.S. Oil and gas exploration and production CC B- 2,300
1/3/2020

Aveanna Healthcare LLC (Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc.)

U.S. Health care CCC+ B- 2,091
8/19/2020

Wesco Aircraft Holdings Inc. (Wolverine Intermediate Holding Corp.)

U.S. Aerospace and defense CCC+ B- 2,075
4/23/2020

FXI Holdings Inc.

U.S. Chemicals, packaging, and environmental services CCC+ B- 2,075
4/8/2020

Helix Acquisition Holdings Inc.

U.S. Capital goods CCC+ B- 2,055
4/17/2020

Life Time Inc.

U.S. Media and entertainment CCC+ B- 1,984
6/12/2020

AVSC Holding Corp.

U.S. Media and entertainment CCC B- 1,980
4/23/2020

Syniverse Holdings Inc.

U.S. Telecommunications CCC+ B- 1,922
5/11/2020

Callon Petroleum Co.

U.S. Oil and gas exploration and production CC B- 1,900
5/8/2020

Mohegan Tribal Gaming Authority

U.S. Media and entertainment CCC+ B- 1,876
Data as of Aug. 31, 2020. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Related Research

This report does not constitute a rating action.

Credit Markets Research:Nicole Serino, New York + 1 (212) 438 1396;
nicole.serino@spglobal.com
Sudeep K Kesh, New York (1) 212-438-7982;
sudeep.kesh@spglobal.com
Leveraged Finance:Robert E Schulz, CFA, New York (1) 212-438-7808;
robert.schulz@spglobal.com
Ramki Muthukrishnan, New York (1) 212-438-1384;
ramki.muthukrishnan@spglobal.com
Research Contributor:Lyndon Fernandes, CRISIL Global Analytical Center, an S&P affiliate, Mumbai

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