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A Deal-By-Deal Look Behind The Aircraft And Aircraft Engine ABS Rating Actions As Of Sept. 15, 2020

One or more of the credit ratings referenced within this article was arrived at by deviating from S&P Global Ratings' published criteria (see the AOG Times section of "Various Actions Taken On Aircraft And Aircraft Engine ABS Transaction Ratings Previously Placed On Watch" for details).

Earlier today (Sept. 15, 2020), S&P Global Ratings took various rating actions on 60 ratings on 23 aircraft and aircraft engine ABS transactions that were originally placed on CreditWatch with negative implications on March 19, 2020, as a result of the unprecedented impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and the restrictive policies put in place to slow its spread (see "Various Actions Taken On Aircraft And Aircraft Engine ABS Transaction Ratings Previously Placed On Watch"). Here we provide further details on those rating actions on a transaction-by-transaction basis. Aggregate data and the list of rating actions can also be found at the end of this report.

Deal-By-Deal Breakdown

For each of the 20 aircraft ABS transaction reviewed today, we considered the results of our cash flow analysis as well as collateral characteristics and performance trends. Our rating actions were primarily driven by our cash flow results, peer comparisons, and credit considerations listed below. In certain cases, the presence of collateral or structural characteristics for a given transaction resulted in a lower or higher rating than indicated by our cash flow results.

Table 1

Credit Considerations
Negative Positive
Issuer Senior class LTV over threshold(ii) All classes combined LTV over threshold(ii) Off-lease + near-term lease expirations over threshold(iv)(v)(vi) Exposure to one or more defaulted lessees Exposure to wide-body over threshold(i) Decline in collections Nov. 2019-Aug. 2020 over threshold(iii) DSCR below threshold(vii) At least one class behind in scheduled principal payments Subordinated note deferring interest Wide-body wgt. avg. remaining term over threshold(i) 25-year useful life run considered due to wgt. avg. age below threshold(i)
Threshold value 75% 90% 20% 25% 50% 1.00 5 years 8 years
Castlelake Aircraft Securitization Trust 2016-1 X X X X
Castlelake Aircraft Structured Trust 2017-1 X X X X X
DCAL Aviation Finance Ltd. X X X X X X X X X X
Falcon Aerospace Ltd. X X X
Harbour Aircraft Investments Ltd. X X X X X X
JOL Air 2019-1 X X X X X X X X
KDAC Aviation Finance (Cayman) Ltd. X X X X X X
Labrador Aviation Finance Ltd. X X X X X X
MAPS 2018-1 Ltd. X X X X
MAPS 2019-1 Ltd. X X X X
Merlin Aviation Holdings DAC X X X X X
Raptor Aircraft Finance I Ltd. X X X X X X X X X
Shenton Aircraft Investment I Ltd. X X X X X X
S-JETS 2017-1 Ltd. X X X X X X X X X
Sprite 2017-1 Ltd. X X X
START Ltd. X X X X X X
Tailwind 2019-1 Ltd. X X X X X X
WAVE 2017-1 LLC X X X X X X X X
WAVE 2019-1 LLC X X X X X X X
Zephyrus Capital Aviation Partners 2018-1 Ltd. X X X X X
(i)Calculated based on LMM of appraised values. (ii)Values calculated as LMM minus S&P Global Ratings' starting value haircut (depreciation + 50% of 'B' lease rate decline stress). (iii)Decline measured as reduction in lease collections between November 2019 and July 2020. (iv)Off-lease status for modeling purposes determined as of Aug. 15, 2020, based upon stated lease termination date. In some cases, such aircraft have not been redelivered and may be paying rent until redelivered. (v)Near-term lease expirations are defined as leases currently expired, or with a termination date before Aug. 15, 2021. (vi)Near-term lease exposure calculated based on percentage of aircraft by count. (vii)Based on trailing DSCR reported by servicer. LMM--Lower of media and mean. LTV--Loan to value. DSCR--Debt service coverage ratio. Wgt. avg.--Weighted average.

Table 2

Liability Info
Issuer Senior class LTV (%)(i) All classes combined LTV (%)(i) Liquidity facility draw (Y/N) Subord. class interest being deferred? (Y/N) Current balance -- August 2020 (mil. $) Principal payments on schedule (Y/N) Paydowns since last review (mil. $) Note factor (current balance divided by original balance) (%) Original balance (mil. $)
Castlelake Aircraft Securitization Trust 2016-1 60 72 N Y 322.10 N 17.49 35 916.00
Castlelake Aircraft Structured Trust 2017-1 70 88 N Y 488.80 N 3.97 62 785.50
DCAL Aviation Finance Ltd. 78 94 N Y 294.20 N 0.96 44 667.00
Falcon Aerospace Ltd. 62 79 N N 185.07 N 3.54 45 410.00
Harbour Aircraft Investments Ltd. 71 94 N N 302.84 N (0.32) 52 579.80
JOL Air 2019-1 78 91 N N 477.41 N 1.20 86 553.66
KDAC Aviation Finance (Cayman) Ltd. 67 85 N Y 547.40 N 2.28 40 1,352.32
Labrador Aviation Finance Ltd. 77 91 N N 549.35 N 10.84 77 709.00
MAPS 2018-1 Ltd. 76 92 N Y 418.26 N 5.65 83 506.50
MAPS 2019-1 Ltd 69 90 N N 380.73 N 4.47 89 429.06
Merlin Aviation Holdings DAC 60 69 N Y 117.58 N - 47 250.80
Raptor Aircraft Finance I Ltd. 78 102 N Y 560.70 N 0.70 77 726.00
Shenton Aircraft Investment I Ltd. 76 83 N N 425.17 N 1.47 53 807.98
S-JETS 2017-1 Ltd. 80 94 N Y 605.27 N 2.34 78 780.80
Sprite 2017-1 Ltd. 68 86 N N 374.94 N 5.37 64 585.00
START Ltd. 70 95 N Y 425.47 N 0.90 72 586.90
Tailwind 2019-1 Ltd. 85 106 N N 474.47 N 68.65 74 637.00
WAVE 2017-1 LLC 76 92 N Y 368.43 N 5.24 77 480.07
WAVE 2019-1 LLC 79 97 N Y 644.47 N 4.51 95 678.08
Zephyrus Capital Aviation Partners 2018-1 Ltd. 77 77 N N 258.92 Y 11.00 77 336.60
(i)Values calculated as LMM minus S&P Global Ratings' starting value haircut (depreciation + 50% of 'B' lease rate decline stress). LMM--Lower of media and mean. LTV--Loan to value.

Table 3

Lease Info
Issuer Servicer (S&P Global Ratings' credit rating, if applicable) Lessees (no.) Defaulted lessees (no.) Decline in lease revenue(%)(ii) Weighted avg. remaining term (all) (years)(i) Weighted avg. remaining term (wide-body) (years)(i)
Castlelake Aircraft Securitization Trust 2016-1 Castlelake LP 11 1 61 4.4 1.9
Castlelake Aircraft Structured Trust 2017-1 Castlelake LP 14 1 37 3.4 2.7
DCAL Aviation Finance Ltd. DVB Bank SE (BBB) 10 1 79 3.9 5.8
Falcon Aerospace Ltd. Dubai Aerospace Enterprise Ltd. (BB+) 8 0 56 2.6 N/A
Harbour Aircraft Investments Ltd. Carlyle Aviation Management Ltd. 17 3 60 2.1 N/A
JOL Air 2019-1 Stratos Aircraft Management Ltd. 11 1 54 6.8 7.7
KDAC Aviation Finance (Cayman) Ltd. DVB Bank SE (BBB) 28 0 54 2.2 2.3
Labrador Aviation Finance Ltd. GE Capital Aviation Services (BBB+) 16 1 26 4.1 4.6
MAPS 2018-1 Ltd. Merx Aviation Servicing Ltd. 16 0 45 3.4 N/A
MAPS 2019-1 Ltd Merx Aviation Servicing Ltd. 14 2 49 4.7 4.8
Merlin Aviation Holdings DAC ACG Aircraft Leasing Ireland Ltd. 9 1 69 3.0 N/A
Raptor Aircraft Finance I Ltd. Seraph Aviation Management Ltd. 9 4 69 4.2 5.5
Shenton Aircraft Investment I Ltd. BOC Aviation Ltd. (A-) 14 1 30 4.8 7.3
S-JETS 2017-1 Ltd. Goshawk Aviation Ltd. 14 1 33 4.5 5.8
Sprite 2017-1 Ltd. World Star Aviation Ltd. 14 1 41 3.8 5.5
START Ltd. GE Capital Aviation Services (BBB+) 14 1 80 3.0 N/A
Tailwind 2019-1 Ltd. Airborne Capital Ltd. 11 0 67 5.3 2.7
WAVE 2017-1 LLC Wings Capital Partners LLC 16 3 62 2.0 0.6
WAVE 2019-1 LLC Wings Capital Partners LLC 15 0 61 4.6 N/A
Zephyrus Capital Aviation Partners 2018-1 Ltd. Zephyrus Aviation Capital Ltd. 15 1 58 2.3 1.8
(i)Calculated based on LMM of appraised values. (ii)Decline measured as reduction in lease collections between November 2019 and July 2020. N/A--Not applicable.

Table 4

Asset Info
Issuer Assets (no.) Current off-lease (no.)(iv) Off-lease + near-term lease expirations (no.)(iv)(v) Wide-body (%)(i) Weighted avg. age (years)(i) Appraisal date LMM at appraisal (mil. $) LMM as modeled (mil. $)(ii) DSCR(viii)
Castlelake Aircraft Securitization Trust 2016-1 29 2 5 20 15.0 Jan-20 515.44 449.80 1.28
Castlelake Aircraft Structured Trust 2017-1 37 0 5 27 15.7 Jan-20 627.48 554.19 0.87
DCAL Aviation Finance Ltd. 16 4 5 46 11.1 Dec-19 367.66 313.46 0.74
Falcon Aerospace Ltd. 15 3 6 0 13.2 Dec-19 267.05 232.88 1.50
Harbour Aircraft Investments Ltd. 22 9 13 0 15.7 Nov-19 361.91 320.61 0.67
JOL Air 2019-1 15 0 0 37 5.5 May-20 588.37 524.80 1.97
KDAC Aviation Finance (Cayman) Ltd. 34 2 10 38 14.5 Jun-20 750.09 644.30 0.44
Labrador Aviation Finance Ltd. 20 3 4 34 8.6 Dec-19 675.48 600.64 0.82
MAPS 2018-1 Ltd. 25 0 3 0 11.3 Mar-20 520.92 456.04 1.11
MAPS 2019-1 Ltd 19 0 1 9 10.0 Mar-20 475.62 421.32 0.86
Merlin Aviation Holdings DAC 12 1 3 0 16.8 Nov-19 197.38 171.17 1.06
Raptor Aircraft Finance I Ltd. 16 2 3 13 5.0 Dec-19 627.43 547.30 0.29
Shenton Aircraft Investment I Ltd. 17 0 1 40 9.0 Dec-19 584.32 514.79 0.53
S-JETS 2017-1 Ltd. 20 1 3 30 6.3 Mar-20 719.27 644.57 0.72
Sprite 2017-1 Ltd. 20 0 4 23 11.9 Dec-19 508.77 438.01 1.26
START Ltd. 22 2 3 0 10.6 Jun-20 509.39 449.21 0.82
Tailwind 2019-1 Ltd. 14 0 0 17 5.8 Apr-20 498.56 446.91 0.63
WAVE 2017-1 LLC 18 1 6 11 9.7 May-20 444.22 399.04 0.87
WAVE 2019-1 LLC 23 2 2 0 5.3 Mar-20 750.99 665.81 0.92
Zephyrus Capital Aviation Partners 2018-1 Ltd. 19 4 6 28 14.8 Mar-20 383.75 336.59 1.42
(i)Calculated based on LMM of appraised values. (ii)Values calculated as LMM minus S&P Global Ratings' starting value haircut (depreciation + 50% of 'B' lease rate decline stress). (iii)Decline measured as reduction in lease collections between November 2019 and July 2020. (iv)Off-lease status for modeling purposes determined as of Aug. 15, 2020, based upon stated lease termination date. In some cases, such aircraft have not been redelivered and may be paying rent until redelivered. (v)Near-term lease expirations are defined as leases currently expired, or with a termination date before Aug. 15, 2021. (vi)Near-term lease exposure calculated based on percentage of aircraft by count. (vii)Calculated based on appraisal LMM. (viii)Based on trailing DSCR reported by servicer. LMM--Lesser of the mean and median. DSCR--Debt service coverage ratio.

For each of the three aircraft engine ABS transaction reviewed, we considered the results of our cash flow analysis from June 2020 because the portfolios generally have not changed and little-to-no principal was paid on the notes since our June review. We also considered qualitative factors, including exposure to engines off lease, lack of principal payments, and the resulting increase in overall loan-to-value and imbalances in the market between supply and demand, which has led to longer off-lease periods.

Table 5

Qualitative Considerations - Engines
Negative
Issuer Senior class LTV over threshold(i) All classes combined LTV over threshold(i) Off-lease + near-term lease expirations (ii)(iii)(iv) Exposure to one or more defaulted lessees At least one class behind in scheduled principal payments Subordinated note deferring interest
Threshold value 75% 90% 20%
FAN Engine Securitization Ltd. X X X X
Rotor Engines Securitization Ltd. X X
Turbine Engines Securitization Ltd. X X X
(i)Values calculated as LMM minus S&P starting value haircut (depreciation + 50% of 'B' lease rate decline stress). (ii)Off-lease status for modeling purposes determined as of Aug. 15, 2020, based upon stated lease termination date. In some cases such aircraft have not been redelivered and may be paying rent until redelivered. (iii)Near-term lease expirations are defined as leases currently expired, or with a termination date before Aug. 15, 2021. (iv)Near-term lease exposure calculated based on percentage of aircraft by count. LTV--Loan to value.

Table 6

Liability Info - Engines
Issuer Senior class LTV (%)(i) All classes combined LTV (%)(i) Liquidity facility draw (Y/N) Subord. class interest being deferred? (Y/N) Current balance -- August 2020 (mil. $) Principal payments on schedule (Y/N) Paydowns since last review (mil. $) Note factor (%) Original balance (mil. $)
FAN Engine Securitization Ltd. 92 92 N N 106.41 N - 63 169.50
Rotor Engines Securitization Ltd. 65 73 N N 80.70 N - 22 364.36
Turbine Engines Securitization Ltd. 73 81 N N 169.75 N - 47 362.50
(i)Calculated based on LMM of appraised values. LMM--Lower of median and mean. LTV--Loan to value.

Table 7

Lease Info - Engines
Issuer Servicer (S&P Global Ratings' credit rating, if applicable) Lessees (no.) Defaulted lessees (no.) Weighted avg. remaining term (all) (years)(i)
FAN Engine Securitization Ltd. GE Capital Aviation Services (BBB+) 8 0 1.2
Rotor Engines Securitization Ltd. GE Capital Aviation Services (BBB+) 6 0 0.6
Turbine Engines Securitization Ltd. GE Capital Aviation Services (BBB+) 13 0 1.4

Table 8

Asset Info - Engines
Issuer Assets (no.) Current off-lease (no.) Off-lease + near-term lease expirations (no.)(iii)(iv)(v) Weighted avg. age, years(i) Appraisal date LMM at appraisal (mil. $) LMM as modeled (mil. $)(ii)
FAN Engine Securitization Ltd. 17 4 7 16.8 Dec-19 129.97 117.84
Rotor Engines Securitization Ltd. 16 10 12 12.7 Dec-19 120.77 111.28
Turbine Engines Securitization Ltd. 26 5 13 14.1 Dec-19 230.70 210.51
(i)Calculated based on LMM of appraised values. (ii) Values calculated as LMM minus S&P Global Ratings' starting value haircut (depreciation + 50% of 'B' lease rate decline stress). (iii)Off-lease status for modeling purposes determined as of Aug. 15, 2020, based upon stated lease termination date. In some cases, such aircraft have not been redelivered and may be paying rent until redelivered. (iv)Near-term lease expirations are defined as leases currently expired, or with a termination date before Aug. 15, 2021. (v)Near-term lease exposure calculated based on percentage of aircraft by count. LMM--Lesser of the mean and median.

The below table indicates the ratings movement on S&P Global Ratings-rated aircraft and aircraft engine ABS (including business jets) notes from Dec. 31, 2019, to Sept. 15, 2020.

Table 9

S&P Global Ratings-Rated Aircraft And Aircraft Engine ABS (Including Business Jets) Ratings Transition
Dec. 31, 2019, to Sep. 15, 2020
Ratings as of Dec. 31, 2019 Ratings as of Sept. 15, 2020
AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC CC NR Total
AA 1 1
AA- 1 1
A+ 1 1
A 4 1 8 6 1 2 1 1 2 26
A- 1 1 1 3
BBB+ 0
BBB 3 1 8 6 1 2 2 1 24
BBB- 1 1 1 3
BB+ 1 1
BB 4 5 4 1 2 1 17
BB- 0
B+ 1 1
B 1 1
B- 2 2
CC 3 3
Total 1 1 0 4 1 9 10 3 12 10 3 10 4 4 5 3 4 84
NR--Not rated.

Ratings List
Rating
Issuer Series Class To From

Castlelake Aircraft Securitization Trust 2016-1

2016-1 A loans A (sf) A (sf)/Watch Neg

Castlelake Aircraft Securitization Trust 2016-1

2016-1 B loans BBB (sf) BBB (sf)/Watch Neg

Castlelake Aircraft Securitization Trust 2016-1

2016-1 C loans BB (sf) BB (sf)/Watch Neg

Castlelake Aircraft Structured Trust 2017-1

2017-1 A loans BBB (sf) A (sf)/Watch Neg

Castlelake Aircraft Structured Trust 2017-1

2017-1 B loans BB (sf) BBB (sf)/Watch Neg

Castlelake Aircraft Structured Trust 2017-1

2017-1 C loans B (sf) BB- (sf)/Watch Neg

DCAL Aviation Finance Ltd.

2015 A-1 BB- (sf) BBB+ (sf)/Watch Neg

DCAL Aviation Finance Ltd.

2015 B-1 B- (sf) BB+ (sf)/Watch Neg

DCAL Aviation Finance Ltd.

2015 C-1 CCC (sf) B+ (sf)/Watch Neg

Falcon Aerospace Ltd.

A A- (sf) A (sf)/Watch Neg

Falcon Aerospace Ltd.

B BBB- (sf) BBB (sf)/Watch Neg

Falcon Aerospace Ltd.

C BB (sf) BB (sf)/Watch Neg

FAN Engine Securitization Ltd.

2013-1 A B+ (sf) BB+ (sf)/Watch Neg

Harbour Aircraft Investments Ltd.

2017 A loans BB+ (sf) BBB+ (sf)/Watch Neg

Harbour Aircraft Investments Ltd.

2017 B loans BB- (sf) BB+ (sf)/Watch Neg

Harbour Aircraft Investments Ltd.

2017 C loans CCC (sf) B- (sf)/Watch Neg

JOL Air 2019-1

2019-1 A BBB+ (sf) A (sf)/Watch Neg

JOL Air 2019-1

2019-1 B BB+ (sf) BBB (sf)/Watch Neg

KDAC Aviation Finance (Cayman) Ltd.

2017-1 A BBB (sf) A (sf)/Watch Neg

KDAC Aviation Finance (Cayman) Ltd.

2017-1 B BB (sf) BBB (sf)/Watch Neg

KDAC Aviation Finance (Cayman) Ltd.

2017-1 C B+ (sf) BB- (sf)/Watch Neg

Labrador Aviation Finance Ltd.

2016 A BBB+ (sf) A (sf)/Watch Neg

Labrador Aviation Finance Ltd.

2016 B BB+ (sf) BBB- (sf)/Watch Neg

MAPS 2018-1 Ltd.

A BBB+ (sf) A (sf)/Watch Neg

MAPS 2018-1 Ltd.

B BB+ (sf) BBB (sf)/Watch Neg

MAPS 2018-1 Ltd.

C B+ (sf) BB (sf)/Watch Neg

MAPS 2019-1 Ltd.

2019-1 A BBB+ (sf) A (sf)/Watch Neg

MAPS 2019-1 Ltd.

2019-1 B BB+ (sf) BBB (sf)/Watch Neg

MAPS 2019-1 Ltd.

2019-1 C B+ (sf) BB (sf)/Watch Neg

Merlin Aviation Holdings DAC

2016-1 A BBB+ (sf) A- (sf)/Watch Neg

Merlin Aviation Holdings DAC

2016-1 B BB+ (sf) BBB- (sf)/Watch Neg

Merlin Aviation Holdings DAC

2016-1 C B+ (sf) B+ (sf)/Watch Neg

Raptor Aircraft Finance I Ltd.

A BB+ (sf) A- (sf)/Watch Neg

Raptor Aircraft Finance I Ltd.

B B+ (sf) BBB- (sf)/Watch Neg

Raptor Aircraft Finance I Ltd.

C CCC (sf) B+ (sf)/Watch Neg

Rotor Engines Securitization Ltd.

2011-1 A B+ (sf) BBB (sf)/Watch Neg

Rotor Engines Securitization Ltd.

2011-1 B B- (sf) BB+ (sf)/Watch Neg

Shenton Aircraft Investment I Ltd

2015-1A BBB+ (sf) A (sf)/Watch Neg

Shenton Aircraft Investment I Ltd

2015-1B BB+ (sf) BBB (sf)/Watch Neg

S-JETS 2017-1 Ltd.

2017-1 A BBB (sf) A (sf)/Watch Neg

S-JETS 2017-1 Ltd.

2017-1 B BB (sf) BBB (sf)/Watch Neg

S-JETS 2017-1 Ltd.

2017-1 C B (sf) BB (sf)/Watch Neg

Sprite 2017-1 Ltd.

2017-1 A BBB (sf) A (sf)/Watch Neg

Sprite 2017-1 Ltd.

2017-1 B BB (sf) BBB (sf)/Watch Neg

Sprite 2017-1 Ltd.

2017-1 C B+ (sf) BB (sf)/Watch Neg

START Ltd.

A BBB+ (sf) A (sf)/Watch Neg

START Ltd.

B BB+ (sf) BBB (sf)/Watch Neg

START Ltd.

C B+ (sf) BB (sf)/Watch Neg

Tailwind 2019-1 Ltd.

2019 A BBB (sf) A (sf)/Watch Neg

Tailwind 2019-1 Ltd.

2019 B BB (sf) BBB- (sf)/Watch Neg

Tailwind 2019-1 Ltd.

2019 C B- (sf) BB- (sf)/Watch Neg

Turbine Engines Securitization Ltd.

2013-1 2013-1A BBB+ (sf) A- (sf)/Watch Neg

Turbine Engines Securitization Ltd.

2013-1 2013-1B BB+ (sf) BB+ (sf)/Watch Neg

WAVE 2017-1 LLC

2017-1 A BBB (sf) A (sf)/Watch Neg

WAVE 2017-1 LLC

2017-1 B BB (sf) BBB (sf)/Watch Neg

WAVE 2017-1 LLC

2017-1 C B (sf) BB (sf)/Watch Neg

WAVE 2019-1 LLC

2019-1 A BBB+ (sf) A (sf)/Watch Neg

WAVE 2019-1 LLC

2019-1 B BB+ (sf) BBB (sf)/Watch Neg

WAVE 2019-1 LLC

2019-1 C B (sf) BB (sf)/Watch Neg

Zephyrus Capital Aviation Partners 2018-1 Ltd.

2018-1 A loans BBB- (sf) A- (sf) /Watch Neg

This report does not constitute a rating action.

Primary Credit Analysts:Deborah L Newman, New York (1) 212-438-4451;
deborah.newman@spglobal.com
Rajesh Subramanian, Centennial (1) 303-721-4241;
rajesh.subramanian@spglobal.com
Sector Lead:Belinda Ghetti, New York (1) 212-438-1595;
belinda.ghetti@spglobal.com
Analytical Manager:Ildiko Szilank, New York (1) 212-438-2614;
ildiko.szilank@spglobal.com
Secondary Contacts:Jie Liang, CFA, New York (1) 212-438-8654;
jie.liang@spglobal.com
Maxym Rumyantsev, New York + 1 (212) 438 0302;
maxym.rumyantsev@spglobal.com
Peter J Lorbiecki, Centennial (1) 303-721-4992;
peter.lorbiecki@spglobal.com
Craig J Nelson, New York + 1 (212) 438 8124;
craig.nelson@spglobal.com
Steven Margetis, New York (1) 212-438-8091;
steven.margetis@spglobal.com

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