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Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment Update: June 2020

This article presents updates to S&P Global Ratings' views on the 88 banking systems that it currently reviews under its Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment (BICRA) methodology (see the chart below and the tables that follow). We also present government support assessments, as well as economic and industry risk trends, for those banking systems.

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Latest BICRA Actions And Reports

Since we last published this report on May 27, 2020, we have revised:

Costa Rica:
  • Our BICRA to Group '8' from Group '7', and our industry risk score to '8' from '7';
India:
  • Our BICRA to Group '6' from Group '5', our economic risk score to '7' from '6', and our economic risk trend to stable from negative; and
New Zealand:
  • Our economic risk trend to negative from stable.
Costa Rica

We have revised our BICRA for Costa Rica to Group '8' from Group '7', and our industry risk score to '8' from '7'. For the past couple of years, we have observed a steady decline in the Costa Rican banking system's profitability. The impact of COVID-19 will exacerbate this trend, in our view. Interest rates declining to historically low levels are ratcheting up pressure on net interest margins and active lending rates for core banking products. This, coupled with the market distortion stemming from the preponderant market share of government-owned banks and highly dollarized balance sheets, is taking a huge toll on revenues. At the same time, loan-loss provisions and credit losses will increase as the pandemic crimps the economy and banks' overall financial profile.

India

We have revised our BICRA for India to Group '6' from Group '5', and our economic risk score to '7' from '6'. We believe risks stemming from challenging operating conditions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic have increased for Indian banks. Drastic efforts to curtail the spread of the coronavirus have resulted in a sharp economic contraction. The government's stimulus package, with a headline amount of 10% of GDP, has about 1.2% of direct stimulus measures, which is low relative to that of countries with similar economic impacts from the pandemic. The remaining 8.8% of the package includes liquidity support measures and credit guarantees that will not directly support growth. We now forecast a 5.0% contraction in the economy in fiscal 2021. We anticipate Indian banks' asset quality will deteriorate, credit costs will rise, and profitability will decline over the next 12-24 months.

We have also revised our economic risk trend for India to stable from negative. This is because we expect the country's economy will recover following the containment of the pandemic. We forecast that the economy will achieve a strong recovery following the deep contraction this year, with real GDP growth at 8.5% in fiscal 2022. The economy's long-term outperformance highlights its resilience. India's wide range of structural trends, including healthy demographics and competitive unit labor costs, works in its favor. Therefore, the banking system's nonperforming loans and credit costs will start to reduce gradually.

New Zealand

We have revised our economic risk trend for New Zealand to negative from stable. We consider that there is a one-in-three likelihood in the next two years that we assess the economic risk score as having worsened by one category within our BICRA for New Zealand. This could occur if we foresee the economic downturn--or its impact on the banking sector--becoming significantly more prolonged or severe than our current forecasts. For example, if we consider that credit losses are likely to rise substantially above our current forecasts, or if we see indications of structural weaknesses in the credit risks in the economy such as the financial strength of the corporate sector or underwriting standards followed by the banks, we could revise downward the economic risk score.

About BICRAs

The strengths and weaknesses of an economy and banking industry are critical factors that underpin the creditworthiness of a country's financial institutions. We distill this analysis into a single BICRA, "designed to evaluate and compare global banking systems," as stated in our criteria. BICRAs are grouped on a scale from '1' to '10', ranging from what we view as the lowest-risk banking systems (group '1') to the highest-risk (group '10'). The BICRA methodology has two main analytical components: "economic risk" and "industry risk."

A BICRA analysis for a country covers all of its financial institutions that take deposits, extend credit, or engage in both activities, whether we rate them or not. In addition, the analysis considers the relationship of the banking industry to the financial system, and furthermore to its sovereign. For that reason, many of the factors underlying a sovereign rating are important in determining a BICRA.

Our analysis of economic risk of a banking sector takes into account the structure and stability of the country's economy, including the central government's macroeconomic policy flexibility; actual or potential economic imbalances; and the credit risk of economic participants--mainly households and enterprises.

Our view of industry risk factors in the quality and effectiveness of bank regulation and the track record of authorities in reducing vulnerability to financial crises, as well as the competitive environment of a country's banking industry--including the industry's risk appetite, structure, and performance--and possible distortions in the market. Industry risk also addresses the range and stability of funding options available to banks, including the role of the central bank and government.

Part of our review involves an evaluation of governments' tendency to support private banks in countries where we assign BICRAs. Our view of the likelihood of government support may influence our issuer credit rating on systemically important banks in a particular country, according to our criteria (see "Banks: Rating Methodology And Assumptions," published on Nov. 9, 2011).

Latest BICRAs, Components, And Related Assessments

Table 1

BICRAs By Group And Country
(Group '1' to '10', from lowest to highest risk)
Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Group 5
Austria Australia Ireland Bermuda
Belgium Chile Kuwait Hungary
Canada Czech Republic Malaysia Iceland
Finland Denmark New Zealand Italy
Germany France Poland Malta
Hong Kong Israel Saudi Arabia Mexico
Liechtenstein Japan Slovenia Panama
Luxembourg Korea Spain Peru
Norway Netherlands Taiwan Philippines
Singapore U.K. Qatar
Sweden U.S. United Arab Emirates
Switzerland Group 10
Group 6 Group 7 Group 8 Group 9 Belarus
Brazil Bahrain Armenia Argentina Nigeria
Brunei Croatia Bolivia Azerbaijan Sri Lanka
China Guatemala Costa Rica* Bangladesh Tunisia
Colombia Morocco Cyprus Cambodia Ukraine
India* Oman El Salvador Egypt
Indonesia Georgia Greece
Portugal Honduras Kazakhstan
South Africa Jamaica Kenya
Thailand Jordan Mongolia
Trinidad and Tobago Paraguay Papua New Guinea
Uruguay Russia Turkey
Uzbekistan Vietnam
*Indicates a change in BICRA since our previous monthly article published May 27, 2020. Data as of June 26, 2020. BICRAs -- Banking Industry Country Risk Assessments. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Table 2

BICRA Economic Risk And Industry Risk Scores And Components
(Group '1' to '10', from lowest to highest risk)
--Economic risk factors and descriptors-- --Industry risk factors and descriptors--
Country BICRA Group Economic Resilience Economic Imbalances Credit risk in the economy Economic risk/Trend Institutional framework Competitive dynamics Systemwide funding Industry risk/Trend
Germany 2 Very Low Very Low Low 1/Negative Intermediate Intermediate Very Low 3/Negative
Switzerland 2 Very Low Low Low 2/Stable Low Low Low 2/Stable
Finland 2 Very Low Low Low 2/Negative Intermediate Low Intermediate 3/Stable
Austria† 2 Very Low Low Low 2/Negative Intermediate Intermediate Low 3/Stable
Norway 2 Very Low Intermediate Low 2/Stable Intermediate Low Intermediate 3/Stable
Sweden 2 Very Low Intermediate Low 2/Stable Intermediate Low Intermediate 3/Stable
Luxembourg 2 Very Low Intermediate Low 2/Stable Intermediate Intermediate Very Low 3/Stable
Belgium 2 Low Low Low 2/Negative Intermediate Intermediate Very Low 3/Stable
Liechtenstein 2 Low Low Low 2/Stable Intermediate Intermediate Low 3/Stable
Hong Kong 2 Low Intermediate Intermediate 3/Stable Very Low Low Very Low 1/Stable
Canada 2 Very Low Intermediate Intermediate 3/Stable Very Low Low Low 2/Stable
Singapore 2 Very Low Intermediate Intermediate 3/Stable Very Low Low Low 2/Stable
Japan 3 Low Very Low Low 2/Stable Intermediate High Very Low 4/Stable
Australia 3 Very Low High Low 3/Negative Low Low Intermediate 3/Stable
Denmark 3 Very Low Low Intermediate 2/Stable Intermediate Intermediate Intermediate 4/Stable
U.S. 3 Very Low Low High 3/Negative Intermediate Intermediate Very Low 3/Stable
Netherlands 3 Very Low Intermediate Intermediate 3/Negative Intermediate Intermediate Low 3/Stable
France 3 Low Intermediate Low 3/Negative Intermediate Intermediate Low 3/Negative
Korea† 3 Low Very Low High 3/Stable Intermediate High Low 4/Stable
Czech Republic 3 Intermediate Low Intermediate 3/Stable Intermediate Intermediate Intermediate 4/Stable
Israel 3 Intermediate Low Intermediate 3/Stable Intermediate High Low 4/Stable
U.K. 3 Low Intermediate High 4/Negative Intermediate Intermediate Low 3/Stable
Chile 3 High Low Intermediate 4/Negative Low Intermediate Low 3/Stable
Taiwan† 4 Intermediate Low Intermediate 3/Stable Intermediate Very High Very Low 5/Stable
New Zealand 4 Very Low High Intermediate 4/Negative* Intermediate Low High 4/Stable
Spain† 4 Intermediate Intermediate Intermediate 4/Negative Intermediate Intermediate Intermediate 4/Stable
Poland 4 High Low Intermediate 4/Negative Intermediate High Intermediate 5/Negative
Malaysia 4 High Low High 5/Stable Intermediate Intermediate Low 3/Stable
Saudi Arabia 4 High Intermediate Intermediate 5/Stable Intermediate Intermediate Low 3/Stable
Ireland 4 Low High High 5/Stable Intermediate Intermediate Intermediate 4/Negative
Slovenia 4 Intermediate Intermediate High 5/Stable Intermediate Intermediate Intermediate 4/Stable
Kuwait 4 High Intermediate Intermediate 5/Stable High Intermediate Low 4/Stable
Iceland 5 Low High Intermediate 4/Negative Intermediate High High 6/Stable
Malta 5 Intermediate Low High 4/Negative Very High Intermediate Intermediate 6/Stable
United Arab Emirates 5 Low High High 5/Negative Intermediate High Intermediate 5/Negative
Panama 5 Intermediate High Intermediate 5/Stable Intermediate Low Very High 5/Stable
Qatar 5 Intermediate High Intermediate 5/Stable Intermediate Intermediate High 5/Negative
Italy 5 Intermediate High High 6/Negative Intermediate Intermediate High 5/Stable
Bermuda 5 Intermediate Very High Intermediate 6/Stable Intermediate Low Intermediate 3/Stable
Peru 5 High Very Low Very High 6/Stable Low Intermediate Intermediate 3/Stable
Mexico 5 Very High Very Low High 6/Stable Intermediate Intermediate Low 3/Stable
Philippines† 5 Very High Low High 6/Stable High Intermediate Intermediate 5/Stable
Brunei 6 Intermediate Low High 4/Stable Extremely High Intermediate Low 7/Stable
Uruguay 6 High Low High 5/Stable High High High 7/Stable
Portugal 6 Intermediate High High 6/Stable Intermediate High High 6/Stable
Indonesia 6 High Low Very High 6/Negative High High Intermediate 6/Stable
Hungary 5 High High Intermediate 6/Stable Intermediate High Intermediate 5/Stable
Thailand 6 High Low Extremely High 7/Stable Intermediate High Low 4/Stable
China 6 Intermediate High Very High 7/Stable High High Very Low 5/Stable
Colombia 6 High High High 7/Stable High Intermediate Intermediate 5/Positive
India 6* High High* Very High 7*/Stable* High High Low 5/Stable
Trinidad and Tobago 6 Very High Intermediate High 7/Negative High High Low 5/Stable
South Africa 6 Very High High High 7/Negative Intermediate Intermediate High 5/Stable
Brazil† 6 Very High High* High 7/Stable Intermediate High Intermediate 5/Stable
Bahrain 7 High High Very High 7/Stable Intermediate High High 6/Stable
Croatia 7 High High Very High 7/Negative High High Intermediate 6/Stable
Morocco 7 Very High Low Very High 7/Stable Intermediate High High 6/Stable
Oman 7 Very High High High 7/Negative Intermediate High High 6/Stable
Guatemala 7 Extremely High Intermediate Very High 8/Stable High Intermediate Intermediate 5/Stable
Costa Rica 8* High High Very High 7/Negative High Extremely High* High 8*/Stable
Uzbekistan 8 Very High Intermediate Very High 7/Negative Extremely High High Very High 9/Stable
Honduras 8 Very High Intermediate Extremely High 8/Stable Very High Intermediate High 7/Stable
Georgia 8 Very High High Very High 8/Stable High High Very High 7/Stable
Russia 8 Very High High Very High 8/Stable Very High High High 7/Stable
Jordan 8 Extremely High Intermediate Very High 8/Stable High High High 7/Stable
Cyprus 8 Intermediate Very High Extremely High 8/Stable High Very High Very High 8/Stable
Armenia† 8 Very High Intermediate Extremely High 8/Stable Very High High Very High 8/Stable
Paraguay 8 Very High Intermediate Extremely High 8/Stable Very High Very High High 8/Stable
Jamaica 8 Extremely High Intermediate Very High 8/Negative High Very High Very High 8/Stable
Bolivia 8 Very High High Extremely High 9/Stable Very High Very High Intermediate 7/Stable
El Salvador 8 Extremely High Intermediate Extremely High 9/Stable High Intermediate Very High 7/Stable
Turkey† 9 High Very High Very High 8/Negative Very High Very High Very High 9/Negative
Bangladesh 9 Very High Low Extremely High 8/Stable Extremely High Extremely High Intermediate 9/Stable
Kenya 9 Very High Intermediate Extremely High 8/Stable Extremely High Very High High 9/Stable
Vietnam 9 Very High High Extremely High 9/Stable Extremely High Very High Intermediate 8/Stable
Greece 9 Very High Very High Very High 9/Stable High High Extremely High 8/Stable
Papua New Guinea 9 Extremely High High Very High 9/Negative Very High High Very High 8/Stable
Egypt 9 Extremely High High Very High 9/Stable Extremely High High High 8/Stable
Mongolia 9 High Very High Extremely High 9/Stable Extremely High High Very High 9/Stable
Kazakhstan 9 High Very High Extremely High 9/Stable Extremely High Very High High 9/Stable
Azerbaijan 9 Very High High Extremely High 9/Stable Extremely High High Very High 9/Stable
Cambodia 9 Very High High Extremely High 9/Stable Extremely High High Very High 9/Stable
Argentina 9 Extremely High High Extremely High 10/Stable High High Very High 7/Negative
Belarus 10 Very High Very High Very High 9/Stable Extremely High Very High Very High 10/Stable
Sri Lanka 10 Very High Very High Extremely High 10/Stable Very High Very High Very High 9/Stable
Ukraine 10 Very High Very High Extremely High 10/Stable Very High Very High Very High 9/Stable
Nigeria 10 Extremely High High Extremely High 10/Stable Extremely High Intermediate Extremely High 9/Stable
Tunisia† 10 Extremely High High Extremely High 10/Stable Extremely High High Very High 9/Stable
*Indicates a change in BICRA score/trend since our previous monthly article published on May 27, 2020. Data as of June 26, 2020. BICRA -- Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment. †We have released a comprehensive BICRA report since we last published this report. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Table 3

Government Support Assessment By Region
--Asia-Pacific-- --CEEMEA-- --Latin America and Caribbean--
Country Government support assessment Country Government support assessment Country Government support assessment

Australia

Highly supportive

Kuwait

Highly supportive

Bolivia

Supportive

Brunei

Highly supportive

Qatar

Highly supportive

Brazil

Supportive

China

Highly supportive

Saudi Arabia

Highly supportive

Chile

Supportive

India

Highly supportive

United Arab Emirates

Highly supportive

Colombia

Supportive

Indonesia

Highly supportive

Georgia

Supportive

Guatemala

Supportive

Japan

Highly supportive

Israel

Supportive

Mexico

Supportive

Korea

Highly supportive

Kazakhstan

Supportive

Peru

Supportive

Malaysia

Highly supportive

Morocco

Supportive

Trinidad and Tobago

Supportive

Philippines

Highly supportive

Russia

Supportive

Uruguay

Supportive

Singapore

Highly supportive

Uzbekistan

Supportive

Argentina

Uncertain

Taiwan

Highly supportive Armenia Uncertain

Costa Rica

Uncertain

Thailand

Highly supportive

Azerbaijan

Uncertain

El Salvador

Uncertain

Vietnam

Highly supportive

Bahrain

Uncertain Honduras Uncertain

Hong Kong

Supportive

Belarus

Uncertain

Jamaica

Uncertain
Bangladesh Uncertain

Croatia

Uncertain

Panama

Uncertain

Cambodia

Uncertain

Czech Republic

Uncertain

Paraguay

Uncertain

Mongolia

Uncertain

Egypt

Uncertain

New Zealand

Uncertain

Hungary

Uncertain

Papua New Guinea

Uncertain

Jordan

Uncertain

Sri Lanka

Uncertain

Kenya

Uncertain

Nigeria

Uncertain

Oman

Uncertain

Poland

Uncertain

Slovenia

Uncertain

South Africa

Uncertain

Tunisia

Uncertain

Turkey

Uncertain
Ukraine Uncertain
--North America-- --Western Europe--
Country Government support assessment Country Government support assessment

Bermuda

Supportive

Austria

Uncertain

Canada

Supportive

Belgium

Uncertain

United States of America

Uncertain Cyprus Uncertain

Denmark

Uncertain

Finland

Uncertain

France

Uncertain

Germany

Uncertain

Greece

Uncertain

Iceland

Uncertain

Ireland

Uncertain

Italy

Uncertain

Liechtenstein

Uncertain

Luxembourg

Uncertain
Malta Uncertain

Netherlands

Uncertain

Norway

Uncertain

Portugal

Uncertain

Spain

Uncertain

Sweden

Uncertain

Switzerland

Uncertain

U.K.

Uncertain
*Indicates a change in our government support assessment since our previous monthly article published on May 27, 2020. CEEMEA -- Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Note: Data as of June 26, 2020. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Chart 1a

image

Chart 2a

image

BICRA Estimates And Regional Averages

We determine BICRAs for all countries where rated banks are domiciled, but many rated banks have exposures to countries and banking systems with no rated banks. If the aggregate credit exposures to these countries and banking systems where we do not have BICRAs are significant, or if we otherwise determine them to be relevant to our analysis, we perform a standard but simplified BICRA analysis for the purpose of computing risk-adjusted capital ratios (we call these BICRA Estimates). If rated banks' aggregate exposure is not significant, we use a BICRA proxy for the same purpose based on our foreign currency sovereign rating on the jurisdiction (we call these BICRA Proxies). The BICRA Regional Averages calculate the BICRA Group and Economic Risk score, based on the countries within each region, weighted by GDP. (For more information, please see paragraph 12 of Risk-Adjusted Capital Framework Methodology, published July 20, 2017.)

Table 4

BICRA Scores For Estimates And Regional Averages
--BICRA Estimates--
BICRA Group Economic Risk
Andorra 7 5
Bahamas 7 7
Bosnia and Herzegovina 9 9
Bulgaria 7 7
Estonia 4 4
Ghana 9 9
Latvia 5 5
Lithuania 5 5
Romania 7 7
Senegal 9 8
Serbia 7 7
Slovakia 4 5
--BICRA Regional Averages--
BICRA Group Economic Risk
Africa 9 9
Asia Pacific 5 6*
Central America and the Caribbean 8 8
Europe, the Middle East and Africa 5 5
Europe 4 4
European Union 3 3
Gulf Cooperation Council 5 5
Latin America 6 7
North America 3 3
World 4 5
Data as of June 26, 2020. *Indicates a change in BICRA score/trend since our previous monthly article published on May 27, 2020. For the purposes of calculating the scores in the table, the North America region includes only Canada and the U.S.

Related Criteria And Research

For a fuller understanding of our revised framework for rating banks, including the BICRA methodology, the bank criteria, and other relevant publications, please see the following articles published on RatingsDirect.

Related criteria
Related research

This report does not constitute a rating action.

Primary Credit Analyst:Alfredo E Calvo, Mexico City (52) 55-5081-4436;
alfredo.calvo@spglobal.com
Secondary Contacts:Emmanuel F Volland, Paris (33) 1-4420-6696;
emmanuel.volland@spglobal.com
Devi Aurora, New York (1) 212-438-3055;
devi.aurora@spglobal.com
Elena Iparraguirre, Madrid (34) 91-389-6963;
elena.iparraguirre@spglobal.com
Sharad Jain, Melbourne (61) 3-9631-2077;
sharad.jain@spglobal.com
Harm Semder, Frankfurt (49) 69-33-999-158;
harm.semder@spglobal.com
Associate:Michael L Forbes, Toronto (1) 416-507-2525;
michael.forbes@spglobal.com
Additional Contact:Financial Institutions Ratings Europe;
FIG_Europe@spglobal.com

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