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Capacity Market Assumptions For Power Project Financings

Capacity Market Assumptions For Power Project Financings

The following table provides specific common assumptions used in our "Key Credit Factors For Power Project Financings," published Sept. 16, 2014. We will periodically update these assumptions, as market conditions change or there is a need to establish different assumptions for new project financings.


Common Assumptions
(U.S.$) --Base case-- Downside case
Natural gas
2020 2021 2022 and beyond
Natural gas price (U.S. Henry Hub; $/mmBtu)* 2.0 2.25 2.5
PJM Interconnection
Capacity delivery year June 1-May 31 (all in $/MW-day)¶ 2020-2021 (A) 2021-2022 (A) 2022-2023 2023-2024 Beyond 2024 (Escalate at 2% annually post 2023)
EMAAC 187.9 165.7 145 145 145 Base price less $30/MW-day
ComEd 188.12 195.6 150 150 140 Base price less $30/MW-day
PS-North 187.9 204.3 175 165 165 Base price less $30/MW-day
MAAC 86.04 140 125 120 120 Base price less $30/MW-day
ROP 76.5 140 100 100 120 Base price less $30/MW-day
New York Zone J ($ per kW-Mo)§ Winter 2019-2020 /Summer 2020 (A) Winter 2020-2021 /Summer 2021 Winter 2021-2022 /Summer 2022 Winter 2022-2023 /Summer 2023 Beyond
Summer 18.36 16.5 18.0 16.0 Escalate at 2.5% annually Base price less $2 per kW-Month
Winter 3.5 5.0 6 4.5 Escalate at 2.5% annually Base price less $1 per kW-Month
New York (rest of state)
Summer 2.71 2.50 3.00 3.00 Escalate at 2% annually Base price less $0.50 per kW-Month
Winter 0.18 0.75 1.00 1.50 Escalate at 2% annually
ISO New England
ISO-New England (Capacity year is June-May) 2022-2023 (A) 2023-2024 (A) 2024-2025 2025-2026 Base case after 2025
Prorated rest of ISO-New England Pool (ROP) ($/KW-mon.) 3.8 2.00 2.75 3.5 Escalate at 2% annually after 2025 Base price less $0.5 per kW-Month
*Base-case assumptions for natural gas prices are currently $2.25 per mmBtu. These may change before our next capacity price update (see "S&P Global Ratings Lowers U.S. Natural Gas Price Assumptions For 2020 Through 2022," Dec. 6, 2019.
¶PJM prices are established through delivery years 2021-2022 and are assumptions thereafter.
§New York capacity prices have been established through winter 2019/2020 and are projections from summer 2020.
Southeast New England (SENE) includes Northeast Massachusetts/Boston (NEMA/Boston) and Southeast Massachusetts/Rhode Island (SEMA/RI). ISO-England ROP includes western and central Massachusetts (WCMA), Connecticut (CT), Maine (ME), New Hampshire (NH), and Vermont (VT). PJM ROP includes RTO, SWMAAC, MAAC, etc.

Related Criteria

  • Key Credit Factors For Power Project Financings, Sept. 16, 2014

Related Research

  • S&P Global Ratings Cuts WTI And Brent Crude Oil Price Assumptions Amid Continued Near-Term Pressure, March 19, 2020

This report does not constitute a rating action.

Primary Credit Analysts:Aneesh Prabhu, CFA, FRM, New York (1) 212-438-1285;
Tony S Mok, New York + 1 (212) 438 0113;
Secondary Contacts:Kimberly E Yarborough, New York (1) 212-438-1089;
Diego Weisvein, New York (1) 212-438-0523;

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