NEW YORK (S&P Global Ratings) March 19, 2020--S&P Global Ratings today placed its ratings on 77 classes from 32 aircraft and aircraft engine ABS transactions on CreditWatch with negative implications (see list). The tranches have been placed on CreditWatch with negative implications due to the unprecedented collapse in world travel caused by global travel restrictions and social distancing enacted to combat the spread of COVID-19. These measures are expected to make traveling highly unlikely for the foreseeable future, which will place a significant stress on the liquidity and credit quality of the underlying lessees in these transactions.
Global economic conditions--especially in the aviation sector--have weakened substantially and are worsening beyond initial expectations as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to pose serious challenges to the industry and threatens operators' near-term liquidity and long-term credit quality. The ultimate impact of the coronavirus on our global airline ratings will depend on the duration and severity of the situation, and the type and severity of measures airlines and governments take to mitigate it. These decisions will be partly informed by global, national, and local health authorities' advice on travel to highly affected areas.
S&P Global Ratings acknowledges a high degree of uncertainty about the rate of spread and peak of the coronavirus outbreak. Some government authorities estimate the pandemic will peak in June or August, and we are using this assumption in assessing the economic and credit implications. We believe measures to contain COVID-19 have pushed the global economy into recession and could hurt employment levels and housing markets (see "COVID-19 Macroeconomic Update: The Global Recession Is Here And Now" and "COVID-19 Credit Update: The Sudden Economic Stop Will Bring Intense Credit Pressure," published on March 17). As the situation evolves, we will update our assumptions and estimates accordingly.
CREDITWATCH
To resolve these CreditWatches, we may conduct scenario testing to determine whether the transactions have sufficient liquidity to absorb prolonged rent deferrals and payment holidays, possible downward migration in portfolio credit quality, longer-than-usual remarketing and repossession time, and the potential for distressed aircraft sales due to remarketing difficulties. Potential scenario tests may be more severe than what our methodology currently considers (see Related Criteria section).
While transactions rated by S&P Global Ratings after the financial crisis generally include structural enhancements such as liquidity and maintenance reserves, debt service coverage ratio (DSCR), and utilization rate-based turbo payment mechanisms--which may partially offset the impact of the flight cancellations and route suspensions caused by the pandemic--we believe that the severity of the stress could exceed the benefits provided by these structural mitigants.
We highlight what our methodology currently encompasses and the possible scenario analyses where its assumptions may come under stress below.
METHODOLGY AND POSSIBLE ASSUMPTIONS STRESS SCENARIO ANALYSIS
In general, our methodology focuses on the aspects described in table 1 below when we rate aircraft and aircraft engine ABS transactions. These may also be the factors that, if further stressed based on the current scenario, could lead to potential rating migration on the aircraft ABS liabilities, in our opinion.
Table 1
Aircraft ABS Rating Factors | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Factor | Analytical approach | Impact | ||||
Servicer strength | Assign a servicer score based on its experience and management of assets | Future re-lease rates and sale values during our modeled recessions | ||||
Airline ratings | Use S&P Global Ratings' issuer credit rating or estimate for the credit quality of unrated airlines | Determines the probability of default for an aircraft portfolio | ||||
Default rates | Assume a portion of the pool (65%-90% at 'A' level) to be defaulted during our modeled recessions | Stresses lease revenues and creates liquidity risk for the ABS structure | ||||
Recession | Assume one recession will occur in every seven- to 10-year commercial aviation industry cycle. Start recession from day one. | Stresses lease revenues and also residual values if an aircraft is re-leased or sold during a recession | ||||
Depreciation | Between 91% and 96% depreciation for newer-technology aircraft and between 88% and 93% depreciation for older-technology or out-of-production aircraft | Future re-lease rates and residual values | ||||
Useful life | Up to 25 years for passenger aircraft and 22 years for regional jets; and typically around 20-25 years for aircraft engines | Aircraft or engine sale time and residual value | ||||
Aircraft/engine on ground (AOG) | 6-11 months during recession (lower time at lower rating levels) and three months outside recession | No cash flows from an aircraft or engine on ground creates liquidity risk for the ABS structure | ||||
Re-lease terms | 36 months during recession and 60 months outside recession for aircraft; 36-60 months during recession and 36-84 months outside recession for engines based on their phases (shorter term as engine ages) | Lease revenues | ||||
Lease rate decline | Additional haircut to lease rates and residual value (40%-75% at 'A' level) during the modeled recessions | Future lease revenues and residual value | ||||
ABS--Asset-backed securities. |
Regional Exposure
Given the global outbreak of the coronavirus and the rate at which it is spreading, it seems somewhat outdated to quote statistics on the number of cases in any specific region. However, we believe it is helpful to provide the exposure to impacted areas based on a point in time in outstanding S&P Global Ratings-rated aircraft securitizations, as the timing and severity of the impact could come from regions hit earliest with the highest cases, so far.
We reviewed WHO data as of March 16, 2020, to determine the exposure to impacted areas in the outstanding S&P Global Ratings-rated aircraft securitizations issued between 2013 and 2019. We classified areas with over 200 cases as moderate-threat countries and areas over 1,000 cases as high-threat countries.
Table 2 summarizes the exposure of the current aircraft ABS portfolios rated by S&P Global Ratings since 2013 to the identified countries.
Table 2
Summary Of Exposure To Identified Countries | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Moderate-threat countries | High-threat countries | Combined | ||||||
No. of countries | 14 | 13 | 27 | |||||
No. of aircraft | 97 | 176 | 273 | |||||
No. of lessees | 31 | 54 | 85 | |||||
No. of transactions | 22 | 23 | 23 | |||||
Top aircraft type (no. of aircraft) | A320-200 (29) | B737-800 (63) | N/A | |||||
No. of wide-bodies | 17 | 19 | 36 | |||||
Top lessee (by no. of aircraft) | ICR | GOL Linhas Aereas S.A (13) | B/Watch Neg/-- | American Airlines Inc (24) | BB-/Watch Neg/-- | N/A | |||||
Top lessee domicile | Brazil | United States | N/A | |||||
Exposure Range (%)(i)(ii) | 0.89 - 60.43 | 1.89 - 55.64 | 33.15 - 85.87 | |||||
(i)Means the lowest and highest exposure in the portfolios to lessees in these countries. (ii)Calculated based on the half-life values for each deal. ICR--Issuer credit rating. N/A--Not applicable. |
Tables 3A and 3B list the identified countries and the number of aircraft currently on lease in each of those countries.
Table 3A
Moderate-Threat Countries | |
---|---|
Countries identified as moderate threat | No. of aircraft |
Canada | 20 |
Brazil | 14 |
Malaysia | 13 |
Qatar | 10 |
Austria | 7 |
Australia | 6 |
Portugal | 6 |
Singapore | 5 |
Japan | 4 |
Bahrain | 3 |
Finland | 3 |
Greece | 3 |
Denmark | 2 |
Israel | 1 |
Total | 97 |
Table 3B
High-Threat Countries | |
---|---|
Countries identified as high threat | No. of aircraft |
United States | 50 |
China | 24 |
South Korea | 22 |
Italy | 18 |
Spain | 14 |
United Kingdom | 11 |
France | 10 |
Netherlands | 9 |
Belgium | 7 |
Germany | 5 |
Norway | 2 |
Taiwan | 3 |
Switzerland | 1 |
Total | 176 |
Appendix A and B break down the lessee exposure to each of these countries.
Assumptions In Our Methodology
Lease rates
We know from some of our rated lessors, as well as servicers of S&P Global Ratings-rated aircraft lease transactions, that many lessees have requested rent deferrals. We believe that this could be a common occurrence that may impact a significant portion of the lease rentals of our rated transactions. While a lessor's decision to grant a deferral depends on a variety of factors, including the desire to maintain a long-term relationship with the airline operator, it also depends on the lessee's financial health. Should the travel restriction and the pandemic continue for an extended period of time, it is highly likely that many airlines will come under severe stress with limited cash resources and will request rent deferrals.
These additional rent deferrals, or just delinquencies, are expected to further curtail cash flows in addition to the increasing default likelihood of the lessees. We do not usually assume this additional cash flow stress when a lessee does not default under our assumptions.
Although the effect of COVID-19 has already surpassed the 2003 SARS outbreak, data from this event suggests that considerable time is needed for the industry to recover. Therefore, we believe future lease rates will also be depressed for an extended period of time. Under our rating methodology, once an aircraft lease expires or defaults, it is released after 6-10 months on the ground at a stressed lease rate. The stressed lease rate, which is based in part on the aircraft's depreciated value and its age, is then further reduced between 40% and 75% under our 'A' stress if the re-lease occurs during any of our three modelled recessions. Considering the uncertainty related to the end of the health emergency, travel restrictions, and the depth of the ensuing recession in this industry, it is entirely possible that the decline in re-lease rates and aircraft on-the-ground timing may be more strenuous then our current assumptions.
Aircraft type and age matter
Government restrictions on international travel will put more pressure on the already challenged widebody aircraft market. As international travel is the most affected travel at this time, widebody aircraft are almost entirely grounded. Tables 4A and 4B shows the exposure to widebody aircraft in our rated transactions. Our assumptions include higher repossession, remarketing and refurbishment costs, and steeper depreciation rates for widebody aircraft. In addition, these aircraft are typically the first to default under our analysis as we assume aircraft with the highest value will default first. While in our assumptions we also bias defaults toward the widebody aircraft included in the pool, our cash flow analysis may have not contemplated the complete halt of cash flows from these types of aircraft for such an extended period and at all times.
Table 4A
Aircraft Type Distribution In Moderate-Threat Countries | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aircraft type | Airframe type | S&P depreciation factor (%) | No. of aircraft in moderate-threat countries | Wtd. avg. age as of Feb. 29, 2020 | No. of transactions | Exposure range (%) |
A320-200 | Narrowbody | 93.00 | 29 | 10.14 | 11 | 3.15-29.15 |
B737-800 | Narrowbody | 94.00 | 25 | 8.30 | 13 | 2.81-21.15 |
B737-700 | Narrowbody | 93.00 | 11 | 13.88 | 6 | 1.40-9.9 |
A321-200 | Narrowbody | 92.50 | 9 | 9.98 | 6 | 2.48-10.77 |
A330-300 | Widebody | 92.00 | 8 | 8.86 | 5 | 6.57-17.64 |
A330-200 | Widebody | 92.00 | 4 | 14.49 | 2 | 11.28-18.32 |
CRJ700 | Narrowbody | 90.00 | 4 | 14.36 | 1 | 6.48 |
A350-900 | Widebody | 92.50 | 2 | 4.57 | 2 | 16.25-18.70 |
B787-9 | Widebody | 93.00 | 2 | 3.44 | 2 | 14.32-17.86 |
A319-100 | Narrowbody | 93.00 | 1 | 20.95 | 1 | 1.72 |
B737-300 | Narrowbody | 84.00 | 1 | 19.09 | 1 | 0.89 |
B777-300ER | Widebody | 92.50 | 1 | 11.86 | 1 | 12.35 |
Table 4B
Aircraft Type Distribution In High-Threat Countries | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aircraft type | Airframe type | S&P depreciation factor (%) | No. of aircraft in high-threat countries | Wtd. avg. age as of Feb. 29, 2020 | No. of transactions | Exposure range (%) |
B737-800 | Narrowbody | 94.00 | 63 | 11.15 | 21 | 2.48-23.79 |
A320-200 | Narrowbody | 93.00 | 36 | 9.61 | 17 | 3.30-14.55 |
A319-100 | Narrowbody | 93.00 | 32 | 14.35 | 10 | 1.72-22.18 |
A321-200 | Narrowbody | 92.50 | 12 | 6.60 | 9 | 4.45-13.14 |
B737-700 | Narrowbody | 93.00 | 10 | 17.94 | 8 | 1.28-12.85 |
A330-200 | Widebody | 92.00 | 7 | 12.32 | 4 | 4.11-28.27 |
A330-300 | Widebody | 92.00 | 4 | 9.76 | 3 | 7.37-11.63 |
B777-300ER | Widebody | 92.50 | 3 | 7.26 | 3 | 14.6-15.53 |
B777-200ER | Widebody | 91.00 | 3 | 15.14 | 2 | 2.29-8.03 |
A321-100 | Narrowbody | 91.00 | 1 | 20.96 | 1 | 1.49 |
A321neo | Narrowbody | 94.50 | 1 | 2.87 | 1 | 9.64 |
A330-200F | Widebody cargo | 89.00 | 1 | 7.20 | 1 | 10.24 |
B747-400F | Widebody cargo | 90.00 | 1 | 17.78 | 1 | 5.16 |
B757-200 | Narrowbody | 89.00 | 1 | 21.20 | 1 | 1.65 |
E175 | Narrowbody | 92.00 | 1 | 8.35 | 1 | 1.90 |
Although older aircraft have reaped the benefits of relatively low fuel costs and a shortage in supply of aircraft due to the grounding of the Boeing 737 MAX, demand for these aircraft may be more vulnerable and less likely to rebound from the crisis. While our assumptions assume steeper lease rate declines on older aircraft, we believe that the utilization rate and, therefore, lease rates of older aircrafts will come under pressure even once the travel restrictions are lifted and the health threat from the virus has subsided.
Further, we believe that the ability to remarket the airplanes and the consequent on-the-ground time will be severely impaired and lengthened during this period. While our methodology assumes longer on-the-ground time during recessions, we believe that the impact of these travel restrictions could extend well beyond our assumptions in particular for widebody aircraft.
Servicer strength
In our rating analysis, we place importance on the experience, prominence, and reputation of the servicer for the successful and active management of aircraft assets. Accordingly, we believe that during periods of stress in the industry such as this one, a strong servicer with longer track record and experience is more likely to be successful in negotiating lease terms with the airlines as well as remarketing and placing the aircraft during period of excess capacity. While our methodology adjusts certain assumptions such as lease rate decline based on the score we assign to each servicer, the possible unprecedented number of airline defaults in a compressed period of time would put smaller or less experienced servicers to the test and possibly increase their insolvency risk.
Recession timing and lessees' rating transitions
In our analysis, we typically assume one recession will occur every seven-10 years. The first recession begins on day one of the transaction when the loan-to-value ratio of the liabilities is the highest. During each recession, the methodology includes stresses to the aircraft's values and lease rates. In addition, we assume lessee defaults and higher re-leasing and re-marketing costs. We believe that the assumption of starting the first recession immediately is consistent with the current industry environment. The steepness of the recession, however, does not contemplate the sudden collapse of air travel for an extended period of time; rather, the recession is assumed to be more gradual.
Ratings deterioration and potential defaults among airlines is highly likely at this time. Should the situation continue for an extended period of time, even some of the bigger airlines may not continue to operate without their respective governments' intervention. Our methodology assumes approximately 65%-75% of the lessees defaulting during the first downturn, which should capture this risk. In addition, we also factor in the potential for further ratings deterioration during the second and third recessions, adding an additional 10-15% on to our initial default rate. Therefore, default rates in the second and third downturns typically range from 75%-90% in our rating scenarios. While these default assumptions would seem very onerous in normal circumstances, the unprecedented travel restrictions and social distancing will make typical travel volumes highly unlikely for the foreseeable future. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that almost all the lessees in our rated transactions may be driven into default without government support.
Depreciation and sales values
As travel has been severely curtailed across the globe, should the situation persist, we expect airlines to retire aircraft at a higher speed. We would expect that the excess capacity and increased retirement would severely and negatively affect the value of aircraft, in particular older aircraft, which we would also expect to be retired first. Currently, we assume that all aircraft will be sold at the end of their assumed useful life (usually 22-25 years for commercial aircraft) at their then depreciated value, with an additional haircut if the sale occurs during a recession. Our methodology currently does not include assumptions for retirements of aircraft in advance of their useful life, which would further decrease the amount of cash flow received by our rated transactions.
We will resolve today's CreditWatch negative placements following our completion of a comprehensive review of the transactions.
Appendix A
Lessees In Moderate-Threat Countries | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lessees | Domicile | Flag carrier | No. of aircraft | No. of transactions | Exposure range (%)(i) | |||||||
GOL Linhas Aereas S.A | Brazil | Yes | 13 | 7 | 4.39-12.95 | |||||||
Qatar Airways | Qatar | Yes | 10 | 4 | 15.14-20.15 | |||||||
Air Canada | Canada | Yes | 9 | 6 | 3.44-17.86 | |||||||
Laudamotion GMBH | Austria | No | 7 | 4 | 1.97-8.52 | |||||||
Malindo Air | Malaysia | No | 6 | 4 | 4.31-11.08 | |||||||
WestJet | Canada | No | 6 | 3 | 2.6-9.9 | |||||||
Air Asia | Malaysia | No | 5 | 2 | 10.07-10.52 | |||||||
Air Transat | Canada | No | 4 | 3 | 2.93-9.5 | |||||||
Finnair | Finland | Yes | 3 | 3 | 2.48-6.57 | |||||||
TAP Air Portugal | Portugal | Yes | 3 | 3 | 1.72-7.78 | |||||||
Gulf Air | Bahrain | Yes | 3 | 2 | 4.04-12.85 | |||||||
Qantas | Australia | Yes | 3 | 2 | 9.31-11.58 | |||||||
Virgin Australia | Australia | No | 3 | 2 | 4.17-10.68 | |||||||
Aegean Airlines | Greece | No | 2 | 2 | 3.17-3.25 | |||||||
Jet Time | Denmark | No | 2 | 2 | 1.4-4.47 | |||||||
Scoot | Singapore | No | 2 | 1 | 8.76 | |||||||
Singapore Airlines | Singapore | Yes | 2 | 1 | 17.64 | |||||||
AirAsia X Berhad | Malaysia | No | 1 | 1 | 9.79 | |||||||
Blue Bird | Greece | No | 1 | 1 | 2.81 | |||||||
Canadian North | Canada | No | 1 | 1 | 0.89 | |||||||
Euroatlantic Airways | Portugal | No | 1 | 1 | 2.29 | |||||||
Hi Fly | Portugal | No | 1 | 1 | 4.24 | |||||||
Israir Airlines | Israel | No | 1 | 1 | 1.94 | |||||||
MAS | Malaysia | Yes | 1 | 1 | 3.08 | |||||||
Peach Aviation Limited | Japan | No | 1 | 1 | 4.10 | |||||||
SATA | Portugal | No | 1 | 1 | 8.50 | |||||||
Skymark Airlines Inc. | Japan | No | 1 | 1 | 3.41 | |||||||
Spring Japan | Japan | No | 1 | 1 | 5.44 | |||||||
Star Flyer Inc. | Japan | No | 1 | 1 | 4.54 | |||||||
TAM Linhas Aereas | Brazil | No | 1 | 1 | 9.93 | |||||||
Tiger Airways | Singapore | No | 1 | 1 | 3.15 | |||||||
(i)Means the lowest and the highest exposure of the lessee in any portfolio. |
Appendix B
Lessees In High-Threat Countries | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lessees | Domicile | Flag carrier | No. of aircraft | No. of transactions | Exposure range (%)(i) |
American Airlines Inc. | United States | No | 24 | 9 | 3.27-15.79 |
Asiana | South Korea | No | 11 | 8 | 4.39-14.35 |
Alitalia | Italy | Yes | 11 | 3 | 1.9-30.55 |
Vueling Airlines | Spain | No | 8 | 6 | 4.63-9.55 |
Spirit Airlines | United States | No | 8 | 5 | 4.49-9.24 |
Alaska Airlines | United States | No | 6 | 4 | 4.17-10.65 |
Air France | France | Yes | 5 | 4 | 1.72-14.6 |
Brussels | Belgium | Yes | 5 | 4 | 1.89-3.95 |
Hainan Airlines | China | No | 5 | 4 | 2.44-11.25 |
Jet2.com | United Kingdom | No | 5 | 3 | 1.47-23.18 |
Transavia | Netherlands | No | 5 | 3 | 1.82-9.08 |
Southwest Airlines | United States | No | 4 | 4 | 2.19-5.75 |
KLM Royal Dutch Airlines | Netherlands | Yes | 4 | 3 | 4.64-15.53 |
Spring Airlines | China | No | 4 | 3 | 4.85-7.01 |
Beijing Capital Airlines | China | No | 4 | 2 | 10.9-11.99 |
United Airlines | United States | No | 4 | 2 | 3.23-14.92 |
Korean Airlines | South Korea | Yes | 3 | 3 | 1.49-4.58 |
Transavia France | France | No | 3 | 3 | 2.82-7.62 |
Air China | China | Yes | 3 | 2 | 2.3-6.05 |
Air Italy | Italy | No | 3 | 2 | 3.08-3.46 |
easyJet Airline Company Limited | United Kingdom | No | 3 | 2 | 4.26-5.92 |
Sun Country Airlines | United States | No | 3 | 2 | 4.26-5.93 |
TUI Travel Aviation Finance Limited | United Kingdom | No | 3 | 2 | 4.28-8.35 |
T'way | South Korea | No | 3 | 2 | 2.44-15.26 |
Air Europa | Spain | No | 2 | 2 | 5.39-10.65 |
Ernest Airlines | Italy | No | 2 | 2 | 1.01-3.17 |
EVA Airways Corporation | Taiwan | No | 2 | 2 | 5.3-15.18 |
Iberia Airlines | Spain | Yes | 2 | 2 | 4.07-11.63 |
Iberia Express | Spain | Yes | 2 | 2 | 1.54-3.44 |
Xiamen Airlines | China | No | 2 | 2 | 4.4-4.42 |
Eastar Jet | South Korea | No | 2 | 1 | 10.17 |
NEOS SpA | Italy | No | 2 | 1 | 7.00 |
Norwegian Air Shuttle | Norway | No | 2 | 1 | 12.63 |
Air Austral | France | No | 1 | 1 | 3.37 |
British Airways | United Kingdom | Yes | 1 | 1 | 4.48 |
Chair Airlines | Germany | No | 1 | 1 | 2.76 |
China Airlines | Taiwan | Yes | 1 | 1 | 4.75 |
China Eastern/ China United | China | No | 1 | 1 | 5.09 |
China Southern | China | No | 1 | 1 | 4.05 |
China United Airlines | China | No | 1 | 1 | 3.24 |
Condor | Germany | No | 1 | 1 | 4.45 |
Europe Airpost | France | No | 1 | 1 | 1.28 |
Frontier | United States | No | 1 | 1 | 5.88 |
Jeju Air | South Korea | No | 1 | 1 | 3.90 |
Lufthansa | Germany | Yes | 1 | 1 | 4.45 |
Qingdao Airlines | China | No | 1 | 1 | 4.87 |
Shenzhen Airlines Company Limited | China | No | 1 | 1 | 4.13 |
Sichuan Airlines | China | No | 1 | 1 | 10.24 |
Sundair | Germany | No | 1 | 1 | 1.37 |
Swiss International Air Lines Limited | Switzerland | Yes | 1 | 1 | 1.49 |
Thai Eastarjet Co. Ltd | South Korea | No | 1 | 1 | 5.07 |
TUIfly | Germany | No | 1 | 1 | 3.52 |
Tway Airlines | South Korea | No | 1 | 1 | 2.27 |
Virgin Atlantic | United Kingdom | No | 1 | 1 | 3.41 |
Related Criteria
- Criteria | Structured Finance | General: Incorporating Sovereign Risk In Rating Structured Finance Securities: Methodology And Assumptions, Jan. 30, 2019
- Criteria | Structured Finance | ABS: Revised Cash Flow Assumptions And Stresses For Global Aircraft And Aircraft Engine Lease Securitizations, Aug. 26, 2010
- Criteria | Structured Finance | ABS: Aircraft Securitization Criteria: Rating Considerations For Lease Pools, Sept. 1, 2004
- Criteria | Structured Finance | ABS: Aircraft Securitization Criteria: Maintenance And Related Issues, Sept. 1, 2004
- Criteria | Structured Finance | ABS: Aircraft Securitization Criteria: The Rating Process For Aircraft Portfolio Securitizations, Sept. 1, 2004
Related Research
- COVID-19 Macroeconomic Update: The Global Recession Is Here And Now, March 17, 2020
- A U.S. Recession Takes Hold As Fallout From The Coronavirus Spreads, March 17, 2020
- COVID-19 Credit Update: The Sudden Economic Stop Will Bring Intense Credit Pressure, March 17, 2020
- Coronavirus' Global Spread Poses More Serious Challenges For Airlines, March 12, 2020
In addition to the criteria specific to this type of security (listed above), the following criteria articles, which are generally applicable to all ratings, may have affected this rating action: "Counterparty Risk Framework: Methodology And Assumptions," March 8, 2019; "Post-Default Ratings Methodology: When Does Standard & Poor's Raise A Rating From 'D' Or 'SD'?," March 23, 2015; "Global Framework For Assessing Operational Risk In Structured Finance Transactions," Oct. 9, 2014; "Methodology: Timeliness of Payments: Grace Periods, Guarantees, And Use of 'D' And 'SD' Ratings," Oct. 24, 2013; "Criteria For Assigning 'CCC+', 'CCC', 'CCC-', And 'CC' Ratings," Oct. 1, 2012; "Methodology: Credit Stability Criteria," May 3, 2010; and "Use of CreditWatch And Outlooks," Sept. 14, 2009.
Ratings List | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Rating | ||||
Issuer | Series | Class | To | From |
Aircraft Certificate Owner Trust 2003-A |
2003-A | E | A+ (sf)/Watch Neg | A+ (sf) |
Aircraft Finance Trust |
1999-1 | A-1 | CC (sf)/Watch Neg | CC (sf) |
Blackbird Capital Aircraft Lease Securitization Limited 2016-1 |
2016 | AA | AA (sf)/Watch Neg | AA (sf) |
Blackbird Capital Aircraft Lease Securitization Limited 2016-1 |
2016 | A | A (sf)/Watch Neg | A (sf) |
Blackbird Capital Aircraft Lease Securitization Limited 2016-1 |
2016 | B | BBB (sf)/Watch Neg | BBB (sf) |
Blade Engine Securitization Ltd. |
2006-1 | A-1 | B- (sf)/Watch Neg | B- (sf) |
Blade Engine Securitization Ltd. |
2006-1 | A-2 | B- (sf)/Watch Neg | B- (sf) |
Castlelake Aircraft Securitization Trust 2016-1 |
2016-1 | A Loans | A (sf)/Watch Neg | A (sf) |
Castlelake Aircraft Securitization Trust 2016-1 |
2016-1 | B Loans | BBB (sf)/Watch Neg | BBB (sf) |
Castlelake Aircraft Securitization Trust 2016-1 |
2016-1 | C Loans | BB (sf)/Watch Neg | BB (sf) |
Castlelake Aircraft Structured Trust 2017-1 |
2017-1 | A Loans | A (sf)/Watch Neg | A (sf) |
Castlelake Aircraft Structured Trust 2017-1 |
2017-1 | B Loans | BBB (sf)/Watch Neg | BBB (sf) |
Castlelake Aircraft Structured Trust 2017-1 |
2017-1 | C Loans | BB (sf)/Watch Neg | BB (sf) |
DCAL Aviation Finance Limited |
2015 | A-1 | A (sf)/Watch Neg | A (sf) |
DCAL Aviation Finance Limited |
2015 | B-1 | BBB (sf)/Watch Neg | BBB (sf) |
DCAL Aviation Finance Limited |
2015 | C-1 | BB (sf)/Watch Neg | BB (sf) |
ECAF I LTD. |
2015-1 | A-1 | A- (sf)/Watch Neg | A- (sf) |
ECAF I LTD. |
2015-1 | A-2 | A- (sf)/Watch Neg | A- (sf) |
ECAF I LTD. |
2015-1 | B-1 | BBB- (sf)/Watch Neg | BBB- (sf) |
Falcon Aerospace Limited |
A | A (sf)/Watch Neg | A (sf) | |
Falcon Aerospace Limited |
B | BBB (sf)/Watch Neg | BBB (sf) | |
Falcon Aerospace Limited |
C | BB (sf)/Watch Neg | BB (sf) | |
FAN Engine Securitization Ltd. |
2013-1 | A | BBB (sf)/Watch Neg | BBB (sf) |
Harbour Aircraft Investments Limited |
2017 | A Loans | A (sf)/Watch Neg | A (sf) |
Harbour Aircraft Investments Limited |
2017 | B Loans | BBB (sf)/Watch Neg | BBB (sf) |
Harbour Aircraft Investments Limited |
2017 | C Loans | B (sf)/Watch Neg | B (sf) |
JOL Air 2019-1 |
2019-1 | A | A (sf)/Watch Neg | A (sf) |
JOL Air 2019-1 |
2019-1 | B | BBB (sf)/Watch Neg | BBB (sf) |
KDAC Aviation Finance (Cayman) Limited |
2017-1 | A | A (sf)/Watch Neg | A (sf) |
KDAC Aviation Finance (Cayman) Limited |
2017-1 | B | BBB (sf)/Watch Neg | BBB (sf) |
KDAC Aviation Finance (Cayman) Limited |
2017-1 | C | BB (sf)/Watch Neg | BB (sf) |
Labrador Aviation Finance Limited |
2016 | A | A (sf)/Watch Neg | A (sf) |
Labrador Aviation Finance Limited |
2016 | B | BBB (sf)/Watch Neg | BBB (sf) |
Lease Investment Flight Trust |
2001-1 | A-1 | CC (sf)/Watch Neg | CC (sf) |
Lease Investment Flight Trust |
2001-1 | A-2 | CC (sf)/Watch Neg | CC (sf) |
MAPS 2018-1 Ltd. |
A | A (sf)/Watch Neg | A (sf) | |
MAPS 2018-1 Ltd. |
B | BBB (sf)/Watch Neg | BBB (sf) | |
MAPS 2018-1 Ltd. |
C | BB (sf)/Watch Neg | BB (sf) | |
MAPS 2019-1 Ltd |
2019-1 | A | A (sf)/Watch Neg | A (sf) |
MAPS 2019-1 Ltd |
2019-1 | B | BBB (sf)/Watch Neg | BBB (sf) |
MAPS 2019-1 Ltd |
2019-1 | C | BB (sf)/Watch Neg | BB (sf) |
Merlin Aviation Holdings DAC |
2016-1 | A | A- (sf)/Watch Neg | A- (sf) |
Merlin Aviation Holdings DAC |
2016-1 | B | BBB- (sf)/Watch Neg | BBB- (sf) |
Merlin Aviation Holdings DAC |
2016-1 | C | B+ (sf)/Watch Neg | B+ (sf) |
Raptor Aircraft Finance I Limited |
A | A (sf)/Watch Neg | A (sf) | |
Raptor Aircraft Finance I Limited |
B | BBB (sf)/Watch Neg | BBB (sf) | |
Raptor Aircraft Finance I Limited |
C | BB (sf)/Watch Neg | BB (sf) | |
RASPRO Trust 2005 |
2005-1 | B | AA- (sf)/Watch Neg | AA- (sf) |
Rotor Engines Securitization Ltd. |
2011-1 | A | A (sf)/Watch Neg | A (sf) |
Rotor Engines Securitization Ltd. |
2011-1 | B | BBB (sf)/Watch Neg | BBB (sf) |
Shenton Aircraft Investment I Ltd |
2015-1A | A (sf)/Watch Neg | A (sf) | |
Shenton Aircraft Investment I Ltd |
2015-1B | BBB (sf)/Watch Neg | BBB (sf) | |
S-JETS 2017-1 Limited |
2017-1 | A | A (sf)/Watch Neg | A (sf) |
S-JETS 2017-1 Limited |
2017-1 | B | BBB (sf)/Watch Neg | BBB (sf) |
S-JETS 2017-1 Limited |
2017-1 | C | BB (sf)/Watch Neg | BB (sf) |
Sprite 2017-1 Limited |
2017-1 | A | A (sf)/Watch Neg | A (sf) |
Sprite 2017-1 Limited |
2017-1 | B | BBB (sf)/Watch Neg | BBB (sf) |
Sprite 2017-1 Limited |
2017-1 | C | BB (sf)/Watch Neg | BB (sf) |
START Ltd. |
A | A (sf)/Watch Neg | A (sf) | |
START Ltd. |
B | BBB (sf)/Watch Neg | BBB (sf) | |
START Ltd. |
C | BB (sf)/Watch Neg | BB (sf) | |
Tailwind 2019-1 Limited |
2019 | A | A (sf)/Watch Neg | A (sf) |
Tailwind 2019-1 Limited |
2019 | B | BBB (sf)/Watch Neg | BBB (sf) |
Tailwind 2019-1 Limited |
2019 | C | BB (sf)/Watch Neg | BB (sf) |
Thunderbolt Aircraft Lease Securitization Limited |
A | A (sf)/Watch Neg | A (sf) | |
Thunderbolt Aircraft Lease Securitization Limited |
B | BBB- (sf)/Watch Neg | BBB- (sf) | |
Thunderbolt Aircraft Lease Securitization Limited |
C | BB (sf)/Watch Neg | BB (sf) | |
Turbine Engines Securitization Ltd. |
2013-1 | 2013-1A | A (sf)/Watch Neg | A (sf) |
Turbine Engines Securitization Ltd. |
2013-1 | 2013-1B | BBB (sf)/Watch Neg | BBB (sf) |
UCAT 2005-1 |
2005-1 | A | BB+ (sf)/Watch Neg | BB+ (sf) |
WAVE 2017-1 LLC |
2017-1 | A | A (sf)/Watch Neg | A (sf) |
WAVE 2017-1 LLC |
2017-1 | B | BBB (sf)/Watch Neg | BBB (sf) |
WAVE 2017-1 LLC |
2017-1 | C | BB (sf)/Watch Neg | BB (sf) |
WAVE 2019-1 LLC |
2019-1 | A | A (sf)/Watch Neg | A (sf) |
WAVE 2019-1 LLC |
2019-1 | B | BBB (sf)/Watch Neg | BBB (sf) |
WAVE 2019-1 LLC |
2019-1 | C | BB (sf)/Watch Neg | BB (sf) |
Zephyrus Capital Aviation Partners 2018-1 Ltd |
2018-1 | A Loans | A (sf)/Watch Neg | A (sf) |
Primary Credit Analysts: | Belinda Ghetti, New York (1) 212-438-1595; belinda.ghetti@spglobal.com |
Deborah L Newman, New York (1) 212-438-4451; deborah.newman@spglobal.com | |
Rajesh Subramanian, Centennial (1) 303-721-4241; rajesh.subramanian@spglobal.com | |
Analytical Manager: | Ildiko Szilank, New York (1) 212-438-2614; ildiko.szilank@spglobal.com |
Secondary Contacts: | Maxym Rumyantsev, New York + 1 (212) 438 0302; maxym.rumyantsev@spglobal.com |
Mita Singh, New York + 212-438-1679; mita.singh@spglobal.com | |
Peter J Lorbiecki, Centennial (1) 303-721-4992; peter.lorbiecki@spglobal.com |
No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P). The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S&P and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively S&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. S&P Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions (negligent or otherwise), regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is provided on an “as is” basis. S&P PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT’S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall S&P Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs or losses caused by negligence) in connection with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages.
Credit-related and other analyses, including ratings, and statements in the Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact. S&P’s opinions, analyses and rating acknowledgment decisions (described below) are not recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions, and do not address the suitability of any security. S&P assumes no obligation to update the Content following publication in any form or format. The Content should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment and experience of the user, its management, employees, advisors and/or clients when making investment and other business decisions. S&P does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor except where registered as such. While S&P has obtained information from sources it believes to be reliable, S&P does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives. Rating-related publications may be published for a variety of reasons that are not necessarily dependent on action by rating committees, including, but not limited to, the publication of a periodic update on a credit rating and related analyses.
To the extent that regulatory authorities allow a rating agency to acknowledge in one jurisdiction a rating issued in another jurisdiction for certain regulatory purposes, S&P reserves the right to assign, withdraw or suspend such acknowledgment at any time and in its sole discretion. S&P Parties disclaim any duty whatsoever arising out of the assignment, withdrawal or suspension of an acknowledgment as well as any liability for any damage alleged to have been suffered on account thereof.
S&P keeps certain activities of its business units separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of their respective activities. As a result, certain business units of S&P may have information that is not available to other S&P business units. S&P has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain non-public information received in connection with each analytical process.
S&P may receive compensation for its ratings and certain analyses, normally from issuers or underwriters of securities or from obligors. S&P reserves the right to disseminate its opinions and analyses. S&P's public ratings and analyses are made available on its Web sites, www.standardandpoors.com (free of charge), and www.ratingsdirect.com and www.globalcreditportal.com (subscription), and may be distributed through other means, including via S&P publications and third-party redistributors. Additional information about our ratings fees is available at www.standardandpoors.com/usratingsfees.
Any Passwords/user IDs issued by S&P to users are single user-dedicated and may ONLY be used by the individual to whom they have been assigned. No sharing of passwords/user IDs and no simultaneous access via the same password/user ID is permitted. To reprint, translate, or use the data or information other than as provided herein, contact S&P Global Ratings, Client Services, 55 Water Street, New York, NY 10041; (1) 212-438-7280 or by e-mail to: research_request@spglobal.com.