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COMMENTS

Sovereign Debt 2020: Global Borrowing To Increase To $8.1 Trillion Amid Favorable Financing Conditions


Sovereign Debt 2020: Global Borrowing To Increase To $8.1 Trillion Amid Favorable Financing Conditions

S&P Global Ratings' annual survey of global sovereign debt and borrowing compiles data pertaining to all rated sovereigns. We project that the sovereigns we rate will borrow an equivalent of $8.1 trillion from long-term commercial sources in 2020--approximately 2% higher than in 2019 and 20% higher than five years ago. We forecast that gross long-term commercial borrowing will stay at around 9% of rated sovereigns' GDP in 2020. (For a full list of the sovereigns we rate and their ratings, see "Sovereign Ratings List," published monthly, on RatingsDirect.)

About 70%, or $5.8 trillion, of sovereigns' gross borrowing will be to refinance maturing long-term debt, resulting in an estimated net borrowing requirement of about $2.3 trillion, or 2.6% of the GDP of rated sovereigns (see table 1). The increase reflects the higher borrowing needs of the largest sovereign issuers as their fiscal stance loosens in 2020 amid the fragile global economic outlook and past pro-cyclical fiscal decisions. Supportive credit and financing conditions are also driving higher borrowing, as the monetary stance of major central banks remains highly accommodative, a trend which is unlikely to change in 2020 (see "Global Sovereign Rating Trends 2020: Sovereign Debt Buildup Continues," published Jan. 29, 2020). Furthermore, all numbers presented here have been converted into U.S. dollars.

By end-2020 we project that the commercial debt stock of all sovereigns we rate will rise by 5% to reach a record of $53 trillion compared to 2019, and by 30% compared to 2015. At the same time, outstanding short-term commercial debt will remain almost unchanged at $5.5 trillion (about 10% of total commercial debt stock) compared to 2019.

Table 1

Sovereign Commercial Issuance And Debt*
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020f
(Bil. $)
Gross long-term commercial borrowing 6,716 7,120 7,294 7,440 7,952 8,130
Of which amortization of maturing long-term debt 4,137 5,266 5,456 5,522 5,665 5,853
Of which net long-term commercial borrowing 2,398 1,855 1,838 1,918 2,287 2,277
Total commercial debt stock (year end) 40,720 42,724 46,465 48,080 50,363 52,969
Of which short-term debt 3,181 4,538 4,694 5,134 5,233 5,499
Of which debt with original maturity greater than one year 37,539 38,186 41,771 42,946 45,130 47,470
(% GDP)
Gross long-term commercial borrowing 9.2 9.6 9.3 8.9 9.4 9.2
Of which amortization of maturing long-term debt 5.7 7.1 6.9 6.6 6.7 6.6
Of which net long-term commercial borrowing 3.3 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.7 2.6
Total commecial debt stock (year end) 55.8 57.8 59.1 57.5 59.4 60.1
Of which short-term debt 4.4 6.1 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.2
Of which debt with original maturity greater than one year 51.5 51.6 53.1 51.4 53.2 53.9
*Data excludes Venezuela due to distortions caused by hyper-inflation and multiple exchange rates. f--Forecast.

Chart 1

image

Breakdown By Rating Category

Investment-grade sovereign borrowings will account for the overwhelming majority of total borrowings in 2020. We project that, during 2020, the share of commercial sovereign debt rated 'AAA' (foreign currency rating) will account for a modest 6.5% of total estimated commercial debt stock and 4.8% of total long-term commercial borrowing. Similar to last year, over 47% of all commercial borrowing and total debt stock will fall into the 'AA' category, as three of the top six sovereign debtors fall into this rating category (the U.S., the U.K., and France).

The share of the debt stock and long-term commercial borrowing by sovereign issuers rated in the 'BB' category or below (speculative grade) accounts for around 6% of the global total (see table 2 and chart 2). Brazil, accounting for around $250 billion, or 3%, of global sovereign commercial borrowing is by far the largest speculative-grade borrower this year. Among all sovereign borrowers it ranks at No. 5 globally, and is the country for which borrowings will hike the most in nominal terms in 2020, increasing by $75 billion compared to 2019. Other big speculative-grade sovereign borrowers, which will push into the top 20 sovereigns by absolute borrowing volumes in 2020 include Turkey, Egypt, and Nigeria, accounting for a combined 2% of the global total.

Chart 2

image

The stock of sovereign debt across all rating categories has steadily increased over the past decade, whereas debt profiles vary significantly by region. Excluding the G-7 countries (which due to their size distort average trends), almost 90% of Asia-Pacific and developed Europe Middle East and Africa (EMEA) debt stock is in local currency and at fixed interest rates (see chart 3). By contrast, between 30% and 40% of emerging EMEA and Latin America's debt stock is denominated in foreign currency, while 70% and 50%, respectively, has been issued at fixed interest rates. Even though our rating analysis captures a complexity of factors, these differences in debt profiles partially explain why sovereign ratings in emerging EMEA and Latin American countries are lower.

Chart 3

image

Interestingly, as far as the currency composition of sovereign debt is concerned, we note a pronounced upward trend in the share of foreign currency in total debt stock in 'B' rated sovereigns, which is not surprising given that these economies tend to have shallow local currency debt markets (see chart 4). Less intuitively, however, we have also seen a rise in the 'BBB' rated sovereigns. This is driven by the exclusion from this group of Spain and Poland, which both experienced rating upgrades to the 'A' category in 2018, and which issue in local currency (see chart 3). On the other hand, the decrease in the share of foreign currency debt stock in the 'BB' category is explained by the strong presence of Brazil, which issues mostly in local currency.

Chart 4

image

Rollover risks generally coincide with low ratings

High rollover needs are frequently a reflection of financial stress, where longer-term funding is no longer available and public debt piles up. According to our calculations, Angola will roll over about 75% of its total debt in 2020, followed by Papua New Guinea and Egypt, at around 40% each (see chart 5). The very high rollover ratios for these countries is a function of an elevated share of short-term debt--which constitutes about 60% of total debt for Angola and 35% for Papua New Guinea and Egypt. The top three sovereigns by rollover needs are all rated in the 'B' category, highlighting this vulnerability.

As a share of GDP, the highest debt service is found in Angola, Egypt, Bahrain, and Japan. Japan will continue to face a very high debt rollover ratio (including short-term debt) this year, reaching 56% of GDP. Its high rollover ratio is a reflection of the highest general government debt-to-GDP ratio among all rated sovereigns, at 210% in 2020 (see the quarterly "Sovereign Risk Indicators," an interactive version of which is at http://spratings.com/sri). Furthermore, at about 13%, Japan's share of short-term debt in its total debt is relatively elevated. The majority of advanced economies have a share of between 5% and 10% of the total.

The debt rollover ratios for infrequent issuers with small but lumpy debt obligations can be very low if little or no debt matures in a given year and if they do not have a significant amount of short-term debt. Sovereigns with higher proportions of official debt tend to have lower rollover ratios because official debt typically has longer maturities than commercial debt.

Chart 5

image

Chart 6

image

Breakdown By Sovereigns

The U.S. and Japan are by far the largest sovereign issuers (see chart 1 and 6). We estimate they will account for almost 60% of total global sovereign borrowing in 2020, with the U.S. alone accounting for over one-third of the global total. They are followed by China, which we forecast will issue around $636 billion in 2020, and Italy, Brazil, and France, each of which we believe will raise about $250 billion in 2020. These sovereigns together will account for around 17% of the global total, slightly below Japan by itself (see table 2). The G-7 group of nations account for approximately 70% of global borrowing and debt.

Breakdown By Region

In a breakdown by region, North American sovereigns (mostly the U.S.) are expected to issue $3.1 trillion (about 38% of the global total), followed by Asia-Pacific sovereigns (36%), and developed EMEA (15%). Emerging EMEA and Latin America will account for only 6% and 5% of the total, respectively (see chart 7).

Chart 7

image

Inflation-indexed borrowings

About one-third (41) of rated sovereign issuers engage in inflation-indexed forms of borrowing (see chart 8). These instruments are more popular among nations that have experienced bouts of high inflation or hyperinflation, especially Latin America, even if those episodes lie decades in the past. Israel has the highest share of indexed bonds, where about one-half of the debt is inflation-linked. This in particular reflects "designated bonds", non-tradeable bonds issued to domestic pension funds at higher yields. Countries with the next-highest shares of indexed bonds are Chile (40%), Uruguay (35%), the U.K. (34%), and Iceland (33%). The high share of inflation-indexed bonds in the U.K. is due to the stable demand from the large pension sector hedging its long-term liabilities.

Chart 8

image

Methodology

Estimates in this report do not take into account sovereigns not rated by S&P Global Ratings. Since few sizable sovereigns remain unrated, however, we see our data as a reliable reflection of global developments in sovereign debt and borrowing. Our estimates focus on debt issued by a central government in its own name. We exclude local government and social security debt, as well as debt issued by other public bodies and government-guaranteed obligations. In terms of commercial debt instruments, our estimates for long-term borrowing include bonds with maturities of more than one year, issued either on publicly listed markets or sold as private placements, as well as commercial bank loans. We do not include government debt that some central banks may issue for monetary policy purposes. All reported forecast figures are our own estimates and do not necessarily reflect the issuers' projections. Our estimates are informed by our expectations regarding central government deficits, our assessment of governments' potential extra budgetary funding needs, and our estimates of debt maturities in 2020. Estimates that we express in U.S. dollars are subject to exchange-rate variations.

This global report summarizes a series of simultaneously released regional sovereign borrowing and debt reports, which we list in the "Related Research" section below. We have produced detailed reports for developed EMEA, emerging EMEA, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America.

Table 2

Gross Commercial Long-Term Borrowing
Bil. $ 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020f 2020 (% of total)

Abu Dhabi

5.0 10.0 0.0 13.9 0.0 0.0

Albania

0.7 0.9 1.5 0.9 1.5 0.0

Andorra

0.7 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0

Angola

10.2 23.0 25.6 8.4 7.6 0.1

Argentina

52.4 68.0 98.3 76.6 53.5 0.7

Aruba

0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0

Australia

75.0 61.1 47.2 41.1 32.6 0.4

Austria

24.7 27.9 21.4 22.8 21.9 0.3

Azerbaijan

0.1 2.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0

Bahamas

0.3 1.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.0

Bahrain

4.4 6.3 2.8 1.9 0.6 0.0

Bangladesh

8.0 11.7 12.7 8.1 9.9 0.1

Barbados

0.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Belarus

1.5 2.0 1.2 0.9 1.9 0.0

Belgium

46.9 41.6 40.3 33.9 33.5 0.4

Belize

0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0

Benin

N.A. 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0

Bermuda

0.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0

Bolivia

0.4 1.2 0.6 0.4 1.0 0.0

Bosnia and Herzegovina

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Botswana

0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0

Brazil

173.5 213.2 170.0 178.5 253.5 3.1

Bulgaria

2.4 0.5 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.0

Burkina Faso

0.1 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.0

Cameroon

0.4 0.7 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.0

Canada

104.9 107.1 111.9 80.7 100.6 1.2

Cape Verde

0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0

Chile

9.7 11.6 8.3 8.3 8.7 0.1

China

460.1 590.7 556.9 599.3 636.0 7.8

Colombia

14.3 17.3 15.1 14.2 16.6 0.2

Congo-Brazzaville

0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

Cook Islands

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Costa Rica

6.7 4.1 4.8 7.6 6.6 0.1

Croatia

2.6 6.1 3.7 5.1 3.6 0.0

Curacao

0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0

Cyprus

1.7 1.4 8.5 3.0 2.0 0.0

Czech Republic

8.7 9.1 11.9 12.9 9.1 0.1

Denmark

12.1 13.9 13.2 14.1 11.2 0.1

Dominican Republic

3.2 3.5 3.8 5.3 3.6 0.0

DR Congo

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0

Ecuador

11.6 13.7 5.9 4.4 5.1 0.1

Egypt

93.3 33.6 38.1 45.2 45.7 0.6

El Salvador

0.1 0.6 0.2 1.1 0.6 0.0

Estonia

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Ethiopia

3.4 3.2 1.1 1.2 1.6 0.0

Fiji

1.7 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0

Finland

15.4 15.5 11.8 10.1 14.0 0.2

France

207.0 211.3 230.3 224.1 229.1 2.8

Georgia

0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0

Germany

177.1 176.2 171.2 178.1 173.2 2.1

Ghana

4.5 4.8 4.9 4.6 4.5 0.1

Greece

0.0 3.7 3.5 14.4 8.4 0.1

Guatemala

2.0 1.8 1.7 1.2 2.5 0.0

Guernsey

0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Honduras

0.7 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.0

Hong Kong

3.7 0.1 2.5 3.6 3.8 0.0

Hungary

11.6 17.0 17.9 26.7 18.3 0.2

Iceland

0.6 1.0 0.3 0.9 0.3 0.0

India

107.0 86.7 77.6 124.0 128.2 1.6

Indonesia

31.0 58.1 49.6 57.3 59.0 0.7

Iraq

13.6 6.3 0.3 0.4 11.7 0.1

Ireland

9.4 19.2 20.8 16.8 13.4 0.2

Israel

25.9 28.5 27.9 34.7 33.4 0.4

Italy

283.1 311.2 294.5 283.9 276.0 3.4

Jamaica

0.3 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.0

Japan

1,918.4 1,755.1 1,693.5 1,773.0 1,756.4 21.6

Jersey

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Jordan

4.1 7.5 5.3 6.9 6.3 0.1

Kazakhstan

0.5 5.0 3.4 4.7 5.4 0.1

Kenya

3.1 6.3 3.3 7.7 7.0 0.1

Korea

87.1 89.2 88.5 87.4 112.0 1.4

Kuwait

8.1 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Latvia

1.7 1.3 1.6 1.6 2.1 0.0

Lebanon

13.0 15.7 18.6 13.5 13.2 0.2

Liechtenstein

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Lithuania

1.7 3.1 1.2 3.1 3.0 0.0

Luxembourg

0.0 2.3 0.8 1.9 1.1 0.0

Malaysia

22.3 26.5 28.6 29.8 30.2 0.4

Malta

0.7 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.0

Mexico

52.2 50.1 51.6 66.4 57.4 0.7

Mongolia

0.6 0.8 0.9 0.0 0.6 0.0

Montenegro

0.5 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0

Montserrat

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Morocco

10.7 11.4 13.0 12.8 12.1 0.1

Mozambique

4.5 0.5 0.7 1.1 0.4 0.0

Netherlands

29.5 36.8 27.9 23.6 26.3 0.3

New Zealand

5.4 5.7 6.2 6.5 6.4 0.1

Nicaragua

0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0

Nigeria

10.1 10.7 37.2 39.4 41.3 0.5

North Macedonia

0.7 0.4 1.0 0.3 1.0 0.0

Norway

7.1 7.0 6.6 6.1 6.7 0.1

Oman

10.7 10.5 8.0 5.2 7.0 0.1

Pakistan

37.1 39.1 18.3 68.7 25.4 0.3

Panama

2.0 1.9 2.5 4.6 3.8 0.0

Papua New Guinea

0.3 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.8 0.0

Paraguay

0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.0

Peru

8.2 7.5 6.1 9.9 4.5 0.1

Philippines

9.0 16.0 11.5 17.2 23.2 0.3

Poland

44.1 32.9 33.8 35.6 23.0 0.3

Portugal

29.0 33.0 27.3 28.5 23.4 0.3

Qatar

14.6 19.5 0.0 12.0 12.2 0.2

Ras Al Khaimah

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Romania

12.4 12.3 16.8 13.3 19.1 0.2

Russia

18.7 37.1 21.4 38.4 38.6 0.5

Rwanda

0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0

Saudi Arabia

53.4 37.1 32.9 39.6 51.6 0.6

Senegal

0.6 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.2 0.0

Serbia

3.8 3.4 2.9 5.1 2.6 0.0

Sharjah

1.5 1.6 3.2 2.2 2.4 0.0

Singapore

26.8 36.2 16.1 18.3 25.7 0.3

Slovakia

5.6 6.9 3.7 3.4 3.4 0.0

Slovenia

5.5 7.3 3.5 2.2 1.8 0.0

South Africa

15.4 17.5 15.7 24.9 26.1 0.3

Spain

132.6 156.6 155.6 126.8 131.3 1.6

Sri Lanka

7.3 7.9 10.1 9.9 10.8 0.1

St. Helena

N.A. N.A. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Suriname

0.9 0.8 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0

Sweden

18.4 14.5 14.7 6.0 12.7 0.2

Switzerland

3.4 3.9 2.3 2.1 2.5 0.0

Taiwan

3.7 3.0 3.4 6.6 6.7 0.1

Tajikistan

0.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Thailand

22.9 32.9 38.2 45.2 49.6 0.6

Togo

N.A. N.A. 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0

Trinidad and Tobago

1.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.0

Turkey

35.6 44.8 32.6 45.2 57.3 0.7

Turks and Caicos Islands

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Uganda

0.2 0.2 0.7 1.0 1.3 0.0

Ukraine

11.2 16.4 4.6 9.8 8.9 0.1

United Kingdom

183.7 168.1 135.3 153.2 195.0 2.4

United States

2,169.4 2,224.3 2,684.7 2,935.5 3,002.9 36.9

Uruguay

1.7 3.0 3.4 3.6 3.1 0.0

Uzbekistan

0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.3 0.0

Vietnam

7.5 5.4 9.5 7.8 8.5 0.1

Zambia

1.7 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.6 0.0
Breakdown by region
Bil. $ 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020f 2020 (% of total)
World 7,120.5 7,293.6 7,439.8 7,951.7 8,129.9 100.0
Americas 2,613.3 2,735.2 3,176.2 3,398.0 3,523.8 43.3
Developed EMEA 1,208.0 1,275.8 1,204.0 1,176.5 1,203.9 14.8
Emerging EMEA 457.5 451.7 382.6 465.1 469.5 5.8
Asia-Pacific 2,841.7 2,830.9 2,677.0 2,912.0 2,932.7 36.1
G-7 5,043.7 4,953.3 5,321.4 5,628.5 5,733.2 70.5
Breakdown by foreign currency rating category*
Bil. $ 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020f 2020 (% of total)
AAA 454.2 459.0 411.9 372.1 392.7 4.8
AA 2,824.7 2,895.2 3,288.5 3,576.2 3,695.3 45.5
A 2,651.5 2,623.5 2,516.9 2,622.3 2,646.7 32.6
BBB 625.2 711.7 666.4 762.7 748.6 9.2
BB 229.1 277.9 231.9 255.1 327.1 4.0
B 264.2 240.0 204.5 269.9 250.6 3.1
CCC 71.6 86.2 119.7 93.4 68.9 0.8
SD 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
e--Estimate. F--Forecast. N.A.--Not available

Table 3

Total Commercial Debt At Year-End (Long- And Short-Term)
Bil. $ 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020f 2020 (% of total)
Abu Dhabi 7.9 17.6 17.3 29.4 28.8 0.1
Albania 5.1 5.9 6.5 6.5 6.9 0.0
Andorra 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0
Angola 44.4 60.4 56.9 49.5 50.9 0.1
Argentina 247.5 292.5 271.4 247.4 187.6 0.4
Aruba 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.4 0.0
Australia 378.0 409.2 400.6 384.5 386.2 0.7
Austria 219.0 253.3 242.3 231.7 236.0 0.4
Azerbaijan 2.6 11.4 10.7 10.2 9.7 0.0
Bahamas 5.6 6.9 7.2 7.4 8.1 0.0
Bahrain 23.1 28.2 31.8 31.2 32.7 0.1
Bangladesh 30.9 39.7 39.5 45.5 59.4 0.1
Barbados 6.2 6.3 5.6 5.2 4.9 0.0
Belarus 6.0 6.9 6.1 6.2 6.8 0.0
Belgium 426.8 462.5 445.2 436.9 457.7 0.9
Belize 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.0
Benin N.A. 2.9 3.8 3.9 4.2 0.0
Bermuda 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.6 0.0
Bolivia 1.9 4.9 5.3 4.9 5.9 0.0
Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Botswana 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 0.0
Brazil 952.3 1,072.4 997.0 1,032.6 1,111.3 2.1
Bulgaria 11.9 12.4 11.1 10.8 11.6 0.0
Burkina Faso 1.2 1.9 2.3 2.4 2.6 0.0
Cameroon 3.4 4.5 4.7 5.1 5.7 0.0
Canada 517.7 552.2 516.3 557.1 592.9 1.1
Cape Verde 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.0
Chile 52.3 67.7 69.0 70.5 77.2 0.1
China 1,711.5 2,057.4 2,294.0 2,464.4 2,705.9 5.1
Colombia 108.0 120.4 126.6 129.8 134.4 0.3
DR Congo 1.8 2.5 3.2 3.5 3.7 0.0
Congo-Brazzaville 1.8 3.7 6.4 5.3 4.6 0.0
Cook Islands 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Costa Rica 23.8 26.5 28.7 31.4 34.1 0.1
Croatia 28.6 34.8 35.4 34.6 34.8 0.1
Curacao 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.6 0.0
Cyprus 7.6 8.3 12.4 13.8 14.5 0.0
Czech Republic 60.7 73.9 70.3 70.2 74.3 0.1
Denmark 91.7 103.4 94.8 91.7 93.0 0.2
Dominican Republic 19.2 21.9 24.7 28.7 30.9 0.1
Ecuador 23.7 30.6 27.3 28.3 29.3 0.1
Egypt 356.1 184.9 225.9 253.6 261.7 0.5
El Salvador 7.4 8.5 8.0 8.4 8.6 0.0
Estonia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
Ethiopia 11.9 11.3 11.9 13.5 15.4 0.0
Fiji 2.5 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.3 0.0
Finland 107.9 126.9 120.2 118.1 122.2 0.2
France 1,708.3 2,022.1 2,011.1 2,026.1 2,143.6 4.0
Georgia (Government of) 1.7 2.0 2.6 2.6 2.9 0.0
Germany 1,193.2 1,356.4 1,281.3 1,254.3 1,275.8 2.4
Ghana 14.0 26.0 25.2 27.6 28.3 0.1
Greece 53.8 78.4 76.5 75.7 78.4 0.1
Guatemala 8.7 9.9 13.6 15.9 17.6 0.0
Guernsey 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0
Honduras 5.0 6.2 6.5 6.8 7.0 0.0
Hong Kong 15.2 16.4 16.5 15.8 15.6 0.0
Hungary 77.4 94.7 94.5 93.1 90.8 0.2
Iceland 10.0 8.7 7.2 7.1 6.3 0.0
India 874.5 984.1 1,284.7 1,365.3 1,466.4 2.8
Indonesia 199.6 243.1 257.8 290.6 305.8 0.6
Iraq 68.8 73.7 42.8 40.1 47.6 0.1
Ireland 153.3 183.7 182.7 179.9 176.7 0.3
Israel 192.7 215.5 210.4 237.9 258.8 0.5
Italy 1,968.2 2,286.3 2,243.5 2,225.3 2,305.9 4.4
Jamaica 4.4 12.0 11.7 11.2 10.9 0.0
Japan 9,188.9 9,617.0 9,929.9 10,396.2 10,705.6 20.2
Jersey 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0
Jordan 29.6 31.0 27.5 29.5 30.5 0.1
Kazakhstan 19.3 23.4 23.6 26.8 30.4 0.1
Kenya 20.4 26.5 32.3 37.0 41.1 0.1
Korea 490.1 586.1 583.0 589.5 623.4 1.2
Kuwait 20.4 23.8 19.5 16.5 14.8 0.0
Latvia 8.6 9.9 10.1 11.2 12.0 0.0
Lebanon 72.4 77.3 83.0 88.6 94.1 0.2
Liechtenstein 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lithuania 13.5 17.2 15.2 16.9 17.8 0.0
Luxembourg 6.6 9.9 10.4 11.7 10.7 0.0
Malaysia 143.1 167.7 177.7 189.8 199.8 0.4
Malta 5.8 6.4 6.1 5.9 6.0 0.0
Mexico 298.5 364.4 365.0 386.4 410.3 0.8
Mongolia 5.7 6.6 5.1 4.9 3.2 0.0
Montenegro 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.6 2.6 0.0
Montserrat 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Morocco 55.5 62.7 64.5 67.2 70.6 0.1
Mozambique 5.8 6.9 8.8 9.2 9.4 0.0
Netherlands 367.7 397.6 367.3 341.4 338.9 0.6
New Zealand 53.3 59.8 55.3 52.7 50.4 0.1
Nicaragua 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.0
Nigeria 46.1 49.2 44.5 47.2 49.4 0.1
North Macedonia 3.1 3.7 4.0 4.0 4.4 0.0
Norway 53.2 56.5 53.6 49.8 58.5 0.1
Oman 17.2 20.4 35.7 40.6 45.4 0.1
Pakistan 143.3 151.2 149.2 141.9 156.6 0.3
Panama 16.8 18.0 19.8 23.6 25.6 0.0
Papua New Guinea 4.7 3.4 3.5 3.9 3.9 0.0
Paraguay 3.5 4.2 4.6 5.2 5.5 0.0
Peru 33.3 40.2 43.9 49.1 53.3 0.1
Philippines 105.9 116.3 120.4 134.5 142.7 0.3
Poland 198.5 239.6 228.2 222.4 227.7 0.4
Portugal 176.3 216.0 220.6 224.9 235.0 0.4
Qatar 67.9 83.0 95.3 100.2 98.1 0.2
Ras Al Khaimah 1.7 0.0 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.0
Romania 59.4 73.9 80.5 88.9 91.8 0.2
Russia 138.2 164.0 148.1 191.4 205.9 0.4
Rwanda 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 0.0
Saudi Arabia 84.4 118.1 128.4 167.5 207.3 0.4
Senegal 3.8 4.9 4.2 6.0 6.6 0.0
Serbia 15.0 15.5 14.2 14.3 13.4 0.0
Sharjah (Emirate of) 4.0 4.9 6.7 7.6 8.6 0.0
Singapore 297.3 364.6 389.2 452.0 495.2 0.9
Slovakia 37.8 44.4 43.2 42.9 43.7 0.1
Slovenia 27.9 33.7 32.7 31.0 31.4 0.1
South Africa 163.2 202.2 193.9 213.3 239.4 0.5
Spain 932.1 1,022.7 1,108.7 1,096.2 1,149.5 2.2
Sri Lanka 48.3 53.5 51.4 57.2 60.7 0.1
St. Helena N.A. N.A. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Suriname 0.8 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.0 0.0
Sweden 148.7 161.8 140.9 119.7 115.6 0.2
Switzerland 76.9 78.6 72.0 68.6 65.5 0.1
Taiwan 165.6 181.0 176.7 176.4 185.9 0.4
Tajikistan 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0
Thailand 117.0 144.6 164.2 180.2 195.8 0.4
Togo N.A. N.A. 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.0
Trinidad and Tobago 7.2 8.2 8.3 9.0 8.7 0.0
Turkey 195.8 209.3 182.6 204.5 221.1 0.4
Turks and Caicos Islands 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Uganda 3.6 3.3 4.0 4.8 5.6 0.0
Ukraine 43.4 47.2 49.8 51.2 69.0 0.1
United Kingdom 2,414.9 2,708.0 2,546.1 2,710.7 2,850.0 5.4
United States 13,908.2 14,468.8 15,608.0 16,673.4 17,703.4 33.4
Uruguay 23.8 26.1 26.6 27.1 28.7 0.1
Uzbekistan N.A. 0.0 0.0 1.4 1.4 0.0
Vietnam 50.2 46.2 49.9 53.7 59.6 0.1
Zambia 7.9 10.4 11.5 12.4 13.9 0.0
Breakdown By Region
Bil. $ 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020f 2020 (% of total)
World 42,723.7 46,464.9 48,080.5 50,362.7 52,968.9 100.0
Americas 16,283.5 17,178.1 18,204.8 19,369.6 20,506.4 38.7
Developed EMEA 10,272.3 11,728.7 11,416.1 11,463.6 11,921.0 22.5
Emerging EMEA 2,142.4 2,308.5 2,308.7 2,528.3 2,717.1 5.1
Asia-Pacific 14,025.6 15,249.6 16,150.8 17,001.3 17,824.4 33.7
G-7 30,899.4 33,010.8 34,136.2 35,843.1 37,577.1 70.9
Breakdown by foreign currency rating category*
Bil. $ 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020f 2020 (% of total)
AAA 3,131.1 3,490.1 3,326.3 3,330.7 3,432.3 6.5
AA 20,040.9 21,517.0 22,433.5 23,697.6 25,072.0 47.3
A 12,391.3 13,380.4 14,022.6 14,695.9 15,363.6 29.0
BBB 4,335.5 5,051.7 5,363.5 5,584.9 5,876.5 11.1
BB 1,336.3 1,547.6 1,488.2 1,565.1 1,702.7 3.2
B 1,153.2 1,088.5 1,068.5 1,127.5 1,213.1 2.3
CCC 335.5 389.6 378.0 361.0 308.7 0.6
SD 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
e--Estimate. F--Forecast. N.A.--Not available

Table 4

Central Government Rollover Ratios And Debt Structure
Percentage of total debt, including bi-/multilateral)
2019 2020f
Commercial debt (% of total) Short-term debt (% of total) Foreign currency debt (% of total) Long-term fixed-rate debt (% of total debt) Inflation-indexed debt (% of total) Bi-/multilateral debt (% of total) Rollover ratio (% of total debt) Rollover ratio (% of GDP) Bi-/multilateral debt (% of total)
Abu Dhabi (Emirate of) 100.0 0.0 84.9 14.8 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.2 0.0
Albania 66.3 18.1 45.6 57.3 0.0 33.7 30.9 19.4 31.3
Andorra 100.0 12.6 0.0 75.5 0.0 0.0 37.8 11.9 0.0
Angola 76.0 63.0 59.0 18.5 0.0 24.0 76.8 75.3 24.0
Argentina 77.1 5.5 77.6 60.5 0.0 22.9 18.6 12.7 28.1
Aruba 99.5 5.0 39.3 84.2 0.0 0.5 13.5 9.5 0.4
Australia 100.0 0.5 0.0 92.8 6.7 0.0 6.5 1.8 0.0
Austria 100.0 2.7 0.0 93.9 0.0 0.0 12.2 6.2 0.0
Azerbaijan 67.7 2.9 54.4 97.1 0.0 32.3 7.9 2.6 34.5
Bahamas 96.1 16.9 33.8 45.7 0.0 3.9 20.8 13.5 3.6
Bahrain 85.4 16.3 52.9 66.9 0.0 14.6 22.4 24.6 27.4
Bangladesh 52.0 6.0 48.0 87.4 0.0 48.0 8.2 2.5 41.0
Barbados 84.3 4.9 24.0 95.1 0.0 15.7 7.7 8.7 18.5
Belarus 29.7 0.0 97.2 59.4 0.0 70.3 10.9 3.9 69.0
Belgium 100.0 9.9 0.0 89.9 0.2 0.0 14.9 12.5 0.0
Belize 59.0 10.6 71.3 96.0 0.0 41.0 14.0 12.9 41.0
Benin 67.0 0.0 47.0 100.0 0.0 33.0 1.9 0.8 33.0
Bermuda 100.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Bolivia (Plurinational State of) 30.5 0.0 63.1 94.9 5.1 69.5 4.5 1.7 65.7
Bosnia and Herzegovina 1.3 0.0 100.0 66.2 0.0 98.7 8.2 1.8 98.9
Botswana 43.9 3.6 56.1 45.8 0.0 56.1 14.6 1.9 56.1
Brazil 99.6 1.1 4.1 29.9 26.0 0.4 10.5 6.4 0.3
Bulgaria 86.4 0.0 80.0 96.9 0.0 13.6 5.9 1.1 12.7
Burkina Faso 38.7 0.0 55.5 100.0 0.0 61.3 1.4 0.6 61.3
Cameroon 36.8 0.0 77.0 100.0 0.0 63.2 4.6 1.8 63.2
Canada 100.0 18.6 2.2 71.4 8.6 0.0 33.6 10.6 0.0
Cape Verde 51.0 0.4 70.0 95.7 0.0 49.0 5.2 6.4 49.0
Chile 98.2 0.0 21.4 57.4 40.8 1.8 2.6 0.7 1.9
China 99.5 4.9 0.9 95.1 0.0 0.5 18.3 3.4 0.3
Colombia 86.8 2.8 33.9 69.3 21.1 13.2 11.3 5.4 13.2
Congo (the Democratic Republic of the) 60.5 1.1 71.8 98.9 0.0 39.5 9.6 1.1 42.3
Congo-Brazzaville 58.6 0.0 69.0 100.0 0.0 41.4 11.3 10.2 48.3
Cook Islands 0.0 0.0 73.0

0.0

0.0

100.0 7.3 1.9 100.0
Costa Rica 93.7 1.8 41.8 78.3 5.9 6.3 7.3 4.6 6.0
Croatia 95.6 10.7 44.0 79.4 0.0 4.4 20.8 12.1 4.4
Curacao 100.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cyprus 59.7 1.5 3.4 60.9 0.0 40.3 12.7 11.2 37.3
Czech Republic 97.7 1.1 11.6 85.7 0.5 2.4 12.4 3.5 2.3
Denmark 100.0 3.9 0.1 88.7 7.4 0.0 12.5 3.3 0.0
Dominican Republic 80.5 0.0 66.8 86.4 0.0 19.5 4.2 1.7 19.4
Ecuador 54.0 4.4 100.0 59.3 0.0 46.0 12.6 6.3 46.0
Egypt 87.7 35.3 28.7 64.8 0.0 12.3 39.8 33.0 12.2
El Salvador 66.1 7.4 100.0 68.3 0.0 33.9 9.8 4.5 32.6
Estonia 14.4 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 85.7 27.6 0.6 84.0
Ethiopia 47.6 16.8 56.0 48.1 0.0 52.4 14.6 4.7 52.4
Fiji 78.2 4.8 28.7 80.4 0.0 21.8 15.8 7.7 20.8
Finland 100.0 5.6 0.0 70.7 0.0 0.0 19.4 8.5 0.0
France 100.0 5.9 0.0 81.7 12.4 0.0 12.8 9.8 0.0
Georgia (Government of) 37.0 2.5 80.0 74.1 0.0 63.0 5.8 2.7 63.0
Germany 99.4 1.3 0.0 92.3 6.4 0.6 15.8 5.1 0.5
Ghana 69.2 7.8 51.4 73.8 18.5 30.8 12.5 7.4 30.6
Greece 19.2 11.7 1.1 83.0 0.4 80.8 12.5 22.5 80.4
Guatemala 75.8 0.0 48.5 79.1 0.0 24.2 5.2 1.3 21.7
Guernsey 100.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Honduras 56.0 0.0 60.7 69.9 4.0 44.0 10.1 4.9 44.0
Hong Kong 100.0 0.0 19.0 92.9 0.0 0.0 26.1 1.1 0.0
Hungary 93.1 10.6 17.4 60.4 12.0 6.9 22.8 13.8 6.9
Iceland 100.0 2.5 21.1 64.4 33.2 0.0 16.6 4.5 0.0
India 94.7 7.1 5.3 89.9 0.1 5.3 8.8 4.3 5.0
Indonesia 85.2 1.7 42.9 90.5 0.0 14.8 12.1 3.6 15.0
Iraq 41.1 0.0 64.9 88.9 0.0 58.9 5.2 2.8 60.7
Ireland 78.4 6.3 0.0 91.3 0.5 21.6 17.0 9.4 21.5
Israel 100.0 0.8 13.4 41.4 52.3 0.0 9.4 5.5 0.0
Italy 100.0 5.7 0.7 75.9 11.7 0.0 15.4 17.4 0.0
Jamaica 77.3 0.5 59.8 67.4 2.7 22.7 7.6 6.2 22.9
Japan 100.0 12.5 0.0 84.0 0.8 0.0 27.8 56.0 0.0
Jersey (States of) 100.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jordan 77.9 1.1 43.5 87.9 0.0 22.1 16.3 14.2 23.7
Kazakhstan 81.8 0.0 45.6 73.2 10.2 18.2 4.5 1.0 14.7
Kenya 67.7 17.1 49.6 66.3 0.0 32.3 21.0 12.2 32.5
Korea (the Republic of) 100.0 12.6 1.3 87.4 0.0 0.0 20.2 7.3 0.0
Kuwait 100.0 0.0 48.6 100.0 0.0 0.0 11.3 1.2 0.0
Latvia 93.1 4.8 10.5 81.1 0.0 6.9 16.2 5.7 6.3
Lebanon 97.7 2.8 37.0 96.7 0.0 2.3 13.2 22.3 2.0
Liechtenstein N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. 0.0 N.M.
Lithuania 88.7 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 11.3 12.3 4.4 10.9
Luxembourg 100.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 20.9 3.1 0.0
Malaysia 99.3 0.6 3.6 99.4 0.0 0.7 9.3 4.8 0.6
Malta 100.0 5.6 0.0 93.5 0.0 0.0 14.4 5.5 0.0
Mexico 93.4 9.7 22.7 55.0 21.1 6.6 15.1 5.4 6.9
Mongolia 60.0 10.0 90.0 90.0 0.0 40.0 16.2 8.9 60.0
Montenegro 65.7 2.0 20.5 79.3 0.0 34.3 17.9 12.1 33.4
Montserrat 17.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 83.0 7.5 0.5 84.7
Morocco 85.2 0.1 22.2 92.3 0.0 14.8 12.8 8.3 16.3
Mozambique 53.0 4.0 80.0 72.0 24.0 47.0 5.5 6.2 47.0
Netherlands 100.0 5.9 0.0 94.0 0.0 0.0 15.9 5.8 0.0
New Zealand 100.0 5.3 0.0 75.1 22.0 0.0 5.3 1.3 0.0
Nicaragua 13.6 0.0 100.0 73.9 0.0 86.4 5.5 2.5 87.6
Nigeria 78.6 13.2 38.4 84.3 0.0 21.4 13.1 2.0 21.7
North Macedonia 79.5 11.8 76.9 76.2 0.0 20.5 22.6 9.3 19.3
Norway 100.0 13.0 0.0 87.1 0.0 0.0 11.4 1.5 0.0
Oman 92.5 1.5 78.4 75.4 0.0 7.5 7.1 4.3 7.5
Pakistan 72.8 17.7 34.8 65.0 0.0 27.2 24.3 20.4 25.0
Panama 79.2 1.1 100.0 82.0 0.0 20.8 6.4 2.9 20.4
Papua New Guinea 47.4 36.4 37.7 59.8 0.0 52.6 40.9 14.0 52.9
Paraguay 66.6 0.0 86.4 78.0 0.0 33.4 3.6 0.8 34.6
Peru 91.1 0.5 30.0 90.4 2.3 8.9 1.1 0.3 10.6
Philippines 86.3 6.2 32.9 84.8 0.0 13.7 12.2 5.1 16.1
Poland 93.2 0.2 27.6 72.4 0.5 6.8 7.0 2.9 6.4
Portugal 79.7 8.9 1.7 83.4 0.0 20.3 13.3 16.0 19.6
Qatar 100.0 6.9 42.3 93.2 0.0 0.0 21.3 10.4 0.0
Ras Al Khaimah (Emirate of) 100.0 0.0 100.0 84.4 0.0 0.0 18.5 1.6 0.0
Romania 92.8 16.1 42.7 81.0 0.0 7.2 25.7 10.1 6.7
Russia 99.5 0.0 21.6 85.1 14.4 0.5 6.8 0.8 0.4
Rwanda 28.5 8.4 79.1 90.0 0.0 71.5 7.9 4.4 74.4
Saudi Arabia 100.0 0.0 51.1 100.0 0.0 0.0 5.7 1.5 0.0
Senegal 45.1 0.0 89.7 100.0 0.0 54.9 5.0 2.8 54.9
Serbia 57.5 0.0 70.4 84.4 0.0 42.5 11.8 5.7 46.0
Sharjah (Emirate of) 100.0 0.0 53.2 40.0 0.0 0.0 15.5 4.6 0.0
Singapore 100.0 12.8 0.0 87.2 0.0 0.0 14.4 18.8 0.0
Slovakia 93.9 0.0 4.6 100.0 0.0 6.1 6.9 2.9 6.8
Slovenia 97.9 0.9 4.6 98.2 0.0 2.1 7.1 4.0 2.0
South Africa 100.0 11.7 10.1 57.9 20.4 0.0 12.1 8.0 0.0
Spain 96.5 6.7 0.1 85.8 5.2 3.5 14.5 11.9 3.3
Sri Lanka 80.0 10.0 54.2 90.0 0.0 20.1 17.7 14.5 20.1
St. Helena N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. 0.0 N.M.
Suriname 62.4 6.4 64.5 93.7 0.0 37.6 12.4 8.6 34.4
Sweden 100.0 12.2 25.3 70.5 17.3 0.0 29.6 6.3 0.0
Switzerland 100.0 9.3 0.0 90.8 0.0 0.0 16.6 1.5 0.0
Taiwan 100.0 1.2 0.0 98.8 0.0 0.0 4.6 1.3 0.0
Tajikistan 13.7 5.0 79.3 95.0 0.0 86.3 7.4 3.5 87.1
Thailand 96.0 6.8 1.5 79.2 3.2 4.0 11.0 3.9 4.0
Togo 14.8 0.0 27.6 100.0 0.0 85.2 1.6 1.1 85.2
Trinidad and Tobago 83.0 6.2 37.5 77.3 0.0 17.0 18.2 7.8 18.7
Turkey 91.5 4.0 49.7 70.7 12.8 8.5 18.0 5.6 7.5
Turks and Caicos Islands 38.2 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 61.8 100.1 0.2 90.6
Uganda 34.3 9.9 67.0 84.5 0.0 65.7 15.0 6.9 65.6
Ukraine 64.7 1.0 66.0 73.4 7.1 35.3 10.4 5.3 20.0
United Kingdom 100.0 2.7 0.0 63.4 33.9 0.0 7.0 6.7 0.0
United States 100.0 14.5 0.0 73.8 9.0 0.0 25.6 20.4 0.0
Uruguay 90.9 0.0 56.1 58.9 35.4 9.2 5.2 3.0 9.3
Uzbekistan 10.1 0.0 97.0 62.0 0.0 89.9 6.0 1.6 91.3
Vietnam 42.3 20.0 65.0 53.6 0.0 57.7 21.5 10.6 57.0
Zambia 71.2 15.0 64.1 85.0 0.0 28.9 17.7 13.2 27.1
Breakdown by foreign currency rating category*
2019 2020f
Commercial debt (% of total) Short-term debt (% of total) Foreign currency debt (% of total) Long-term fixed-rate debt (% of total debt) Inflation-indexed debt (% of total) Bi-/multilateral debt (% of total) Rollover ratio (% of total debt) Rollover ratio (% of GDP) Bi-/multilateral debt (% of total)
AAA 99.8 6.9 1.3 87.4 5.4 0.2 17.9 5.8 0.2
AA 99.8 11.7 0.5 74.3 11.9 0.2 21.4 15.8 0.2
A 99.5 10.1 1.4 86.1 1.2 0.5 24.0 15.6 0.5
BBB 94.6 6.1 11.4 79.6 7.5 5.4 12.8 6.4 5.4
BB 75.5 5.6 16.3 51.9 15.3 24.5 11.3 7.0 23.4
B 73.2 15.5 49.9 70.2 2.8 26.8 22.4 11.4 26.6
CCC 79.9 5.2 69.0 69.7 0.9 20.1 16.5 12.4 22.9
SD 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
f--Forecast. N.M.--Not meaningful.

Related Research

  • Sovereign Debt 2020: Emerging Market EMEA Borrowing Will Likely Inch Up 0.6% To $473.3 Billion, Feb. 20, 2020
  • Sovereign Debt 2020: Commercial Borrowing By Developed Markets In EMEA Expected To Reach $1.2 Trillion, Feb. 20, 2020
  • Sovereign Debt 2020: Latin American And Caribbean Commercial Borrowing Is Likely To Increase 10% To $425 Billion, Feb. 20, 2020
  • Sovereign Debt 2020: Asia-Pacific Central Governments To Borrow Nearly US$3 Trillion, Feb. 20, 2020
  • Sovereign Ratings List, Feb. 10, 2020
  • Sovereign Ratings History, Feb. 10, 2020
  • Sovereign Ratings Score Snapshot, Feb. 4, 2020
  • Sovereign Risk Indicators, Dec. 12, 2019; a free interactive version is available at http://www.spratings.com/sri

This report does not constitute a rating action.

Primary Credit Analysts:Karen Vartapetov, PhD, Frankfurt (49) 69-33-999-225;
karen.vartapetov@spglobal.com
Roberto H Sifon-arevalo, New York (1) 212-438-7358;
roberto.sifon-arevalo@spglobal.com
Secondary Contact:Patricio E Vimberg, Buenos Aires (54) 114-891-2132;
patricio.vimberg@spglobal.com
Research Contributor:Hari Krishan, Mumbai;
hari.krishan@spglobal.com
Additional Contact:EMEA Sovereign and IPF;
SovereignIPF@spglobal.com

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