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COMMENTS

Sovereign Debt 2019: Global Borrowing To Increase By 3.2% To US$7.8 Trillion


Sovereign Debt 2019: Global Borrowing To Increase By 3.2% To US$7.8 Trillion

S&P Global Ratings presents its annual survey of global sovereign debt and borrowing, which compiles data pertaining to all rated sovereigns. We project that the sovereigns we rate will borrow an equivalent of $7.78 trillion from long-term commercial sources in 2019--roughly 3% higher than in 2018. We forecast gross long-term commercial borrowing will remain at about 9% of rated sovereigns' GDP in 2019. (For a full list of the sovereigns we rate and their ratings, see "Sovereign Ratings List," published monthly, on RatingsDirect.)

Some 70%, or $5.5 trillion, of sovereigns' gross borrowing will be to refinance maturing long-term debt, resulting in an estimated net borrowing requirement of about $2.3 trillion, or 2.6% of the GDP of rated sovereigns (see table 1). Net borrowing as a share of GDP has been decreasing gradually from 5.4% in 2014 as a result of governments extending their maturity profiles in a low interest rate environment and gradual improvements in fiscal consolidation in several countries. But they also reflect exchange rate movements, as all numbers presented here have been converted into U.S. dollars.

Consequently, we project that the commercial debt stock of the sovereigns we rate will rise by 6% to reach an equivalent of $50 trillion by the end of 2019. We expect that outstanding short-term commercial debt will remain unchanged at $5.3 trillion at year-end 2018, or slightly above 10% of total commercial debt stock.

Table 1

Sovereign Commercial Issuance And Debt*
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019f
(Bil. USD)
Gross long-term commercial borrowing 6,719 7,121 7,294 7,542 7,785
Of which amortization of maturing long-term debt 4,321 5,269 5,511 5,526 5,524
Of which net long-term commercial borrowing 2,398 1,851 1,782 2,016 2,261
Total commercial debt stock (year end) 40,725 42,725 46,464 47,510 50,226
Of which short-term debt 3,214 4,538 4,827 5,155 5,377
Of which debt with original maturity greater than one year 37,512 38,186 41,637 42,355 44,848
(% GDP)
Gross long-term commercial borrowing (% GDP) 9.2 9.6 9.3 9.1 9.1
Of which amortization of maturing long-term debt (% GDP) 5.9 7.1 7.0 6.6 6.5
Of which net long-term commercial borrowing (% GDP) 3.3 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.6
Total commecial debt stock (year end) (% GDP) 55.9 57.8 59.2 57.1 58.8
Of which short-term debt (% GDP) 4.4 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.3
Of which debt with original maturity greater than one year (% GDP) 51 52 53 51 53
f--Forecast. *Here, and below, data excludes Venezuela due to distortions caused by hyper-inflation and multiple exchange rates.

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Breakdown By Rating Category

Investment-grade sovereign borrowings will account for the overwhelming majority of total borrowings in 2019. We project that, during 2019, the share of commercial sovereign debt rated 'AAA' (foreign currency rating) will account for a modest 7% of total estimated commercial debt stock and 6% of total long-term commercial borrowing. Similar to last year, over 40% of all commercial borrowing and over 45% of total debt stock will fall into the 'AA' category given that five of the top six sovereign debtors fall into this (the U.S., Japan, France, and the U.K.).

The share of the debt stock and long-term commercial borrowing by sovereign issuers rated in the 'BB' category or below (speculative grade) accounts for around 6% the global total (see table 2 and chart 2). Brazil, accounting for around $200 billion, or 2.6%, of global sovereign commercial borrowing is by far the largest speculative-grade borrower this year. As a borrower it ranks sixth globally, slightly behind France and ahead of Germany. Other big speculative-grade sovereign borrowers--pushing into the top 20 sovereigns by absolute borrowing volumes in 2019--include Turkey and Egypt, accounting for a combined 1% of the global total. (See also an overview of emerging markets' sovereign borrowing in "Sovereign Debt 2019: Emerging Markets Borrowing Is Set To Increase By 5.6% To US$1.4 Trillion," published Feb. 21, 2019.

Rollover risks generally coincide with low ratings

According to our calculations, Japan will face by far the highest debt rollover ratio (including short-term debt) this year, reaching 56% of GDP. Japan's high rollover ratio is a reflection of the highest general government debt to GDP ratio among all rated sovereigns, at 236% in 2018 (see the quarterly "Sovereign Risk Indicators," an interactive version of which is at http://spratings.com/sri). Furthermore, at some 13%, Japan's share of short-term debt in the total is relatively elevated. The majority of advanced economies have a share of between 5% and 10% of the total.

In terms of refinancing needs as a share of GDP, Japan is followed by Egypt (above 30%), Iraq, Jordan, and Pakistan (20%-25%). The very high rollover ratios for these is a function of the elevated share of short-term debt (between 20% and 35% of total debt).

Except for Japan, the top five sovereigns by rollover needs are all rated in the 'B' category, whereas Barbados is in a selective default. High rollover needs are frequently a reflection of financial stress, where longer term funding is no longer available and public debt piles up (see chart 6).

The debt rollover ratios for infrequent issuers with small but lumpy debt obligations can be very low if little or no debt matures in a given year and if they do not have a significant amount of short-term debt. Sovereigns with higher proportions of official debt tend to have lower rollover ratios, because official debt typically has longer maturities than commercial debt.

Breakdown By Sovereigns

The U.S. and Japan are by far the largest sovereign issuers. We estimate they will account for some 60% of total global sovereign borrowing in 2019, with the U.S. alone accounting for over one-third of the global total. They are followed by China, which we forecast to issue around $650 billion in 2019, and Italy, France, and Brazil, each of which we believe will raise over $200 billion in 2019. These sovereigns together will account for some 18% of the global total, slightly below Japan by itself (see chart 1 and table 2). The Group of Seven nations account for some 70% of global borrowing and debt. Although four eurozone sovereigns (Italy, France, Germany, and Spain) are among the top 10 borrowers, we expect that eurozone member sovereigns together will issue only 35% of what the U.S. is likely to issue this year.

The volume of U.S. sovereign debt issuance can be illustrated with the following thought experiment. We assume that all issuance of all sovereigns is distributed evenly over the calendar year. We then ask ourselves at which date the U.S. would have issued as much debt as the equivalent of the annual total of other sovereigns. By definition, the U.S. will have covered its own yearly borrowing on Dec. 31, 2019. It would have already covered Argentina and Croatia's 2019 borrowing needs by the end of Jan. 1; The Netherlands, Russia, Malaysia and Saudi Arabia's during Jan. 4, and the U.K., France, and Germany's by the end of January (see chart 3). When this report is released, the U.S. will have already issued more than any other sovereigns will during all of 2019, with the exception of China and Japan.

Breakdown By Region

In a breakdown by region, North America sovereigns (mostly U.S.) are expected to issue $3 trillion (some 38% of global total), followed by Asia-Pacific sovereigns (mostly by Japan and, to a lesser extent, China and India) (37%) and Europe (18%, including the Commonwealth of Independent States). Latin America accounts for only 4% of the total while borrowing by sovereigns in Africa and the Middle East remains modest by global comparison (see chart 4 and table 2).

Inflation-indexed borrowings

About one third (38) of rated sovereign issuers engage in inflation-indexed forms of borrowing (see chart 5). These instruments enjoy greater popularity among nations that have experienced bouts of high inflation or hyperinflation, especially Latin America, even if those episodes lie decades in the past. Israel and Chile have the highest share of indexed bonds, where about half of the debt is inflation-linked, followed by Uruguay (40%), then the U.K. and Iceland (both around 30%).

Estimates in this report do not take into account sovereigns not rated by S&P Global Ratings. Since few sizable sovereigns remain unrated, however, we see our data as a robust reflection of global developments in sovereign debt and borrowing. Our estimates focus on debt issued by a central government in its own name; we exclude local government and social security debt, as well as debt issued by other public bodies and government-guaranteed obligations. In terms of commercial debt instruments, our estimates for long-term borrowing include bonds with maturities of more than one year, issued either on publicly listed markets or sold as private placements, as well as commercial bank loans. We do not include government debt that some central banks may issue for monetary policy purposes. All reported forecast figures are our own estimates and do not necessarily reflect the issuers' projections. Our estimates are informed by our expectations regarding central government deficits, our assessment of governments' potential extra budgetary funding needs, and our estimates of debt maturities in 2019. Estimates that we express in U.S. dollars are subject to exchange-rate variations.

This global report summarizes a series of simultaneously released regional sovereign borrowing and debt reports, which we list in the "Related Research" section below. We have produced detailed reports for the eurozone, CEE and CIS, Asia-Pacific, Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East and North Africa. We have also published a special report on sovereign borrowing and debt in emerging markets.

Chart 1

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Chart 2

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Chart 3

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Chart 4

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Chart 5

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Chart 6

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Table 2

Gross Commercial Long-Term Borrowing
Gross Commercial Long-Term Borrowing Total Commercial Debt, Year-end (incl. short-term)
$ bil. 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019f 2019 (% of total) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019f 2019 (% of total)

Abu Dhabi

0.0 5.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8 7.9 17.6 17.3 15.5 0.0

Albania

1.5 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.0 0.0 5.1 5.1 5.9 6.5 6.8 0.0

Andorra

0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.0

Angola

10.2 10.2 23.0 16.3 11.4 0.1 38.9 44.4 60.4 55.1 56.6 0.1

Argentina

44.6 52.4 68.0 34.1 1.7 0.0 136.6 247.5 292.5 274.2 226.1 0.5

Aruba

0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 0.0

Australia

80.2 75.0 61.1 45.0 46.0 0.6 322.9 378.0 409.2 400.8 411.3 0.8

Austria

20.5 24.7 27.9 21.5 24.6 0.3 216.8 219.0 253.3 242.4 253.4 0.5

Azerbaijan

0.0 0.1 2.9 0.0 1.3 0.0 0.3 2.6 11.4 10.5 11.1 0.0

Bahamas

0.3 0.3 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 5.6 5.6 6.9 7.2 7.4 0.0

Bahrain

3.0 4.4 6.3 4.1 4.1 0.1 18.8 23.1 28.2 31.2 33.8 0.1

Bangladesh

3.5 8.0 11.7 12.8 10.5 0.1 29.4 30.9 39.7 41.3 49.7 0.1

Barbados

0.2 0.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1 6.2 6.3 5.6 5.4 0.0

Belarus

3.7 1.5 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.0 6.0 6.0 6.9 6.0 5.9 0.0

Belgium

45.2 46.9 41.6 40.4 35.4 0.5 424.1 426.8 462.5 445.2 469.3 0.9

Belize

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.0

Benin

N/A N/A 1.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A 2.9 3.2 2.4 0.0

Bermuda

0.2 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.5 0.0

Bolivia

0.2 0.4 1.2 0.5 1.5 0.0 2.6 1.9 4.9 5.2 5.9 0.0

Bosnia and Herzegovina

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0

Botswana

0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.0

Brazil

175.8 173.5 213.2 170.2 204.4 2.6 712.2 952.3 1,071.5 998.1 1,103.9 2.2

Bulgaria

4.1 2.4 0.5 0.0 0.6 0.0 10.5 11.9 12.4 11.1 11.7 0.0

Burkina Faso

0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.3 1.2 1.9 2.1 2.4 0.0

Cameroon

1.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.0 2.5 3.4 4.5 4.9 5.8 0.0

Canada

78.2 104.9 107.1 112.5 112.9 1.5 483.9 517.7 552.2 545.5 550.9 1.1

Cape Verde

0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.0 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.4 0.0

Chile

8.2 9.7 11.6 8.1 9.3 0.1 38.2 52.3 67.7 70.2 81.8 0.2

China

337.0 460.1 590.7 620.1 655.0 8.4 1,624.7 1,711.5 2,057.4 2,145.9 2,363.1 4.7

Colombia

15.1 14.3 17.3 17.8 18.7 0.2 84.8 108.0 120.4 132.6 150.4 0.3

Congo D.R.

0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.0 0.0 1.5 1.8 2.5 3.0 3.4 0.0

Congo-Brazzaville

0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.4 1.8 3.7 3.5 3.7 0.0

Cook Islands

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Costa Rica

8.7 6.7 4.1 4.7 3.9 0.1 21.0 23.8 26.5 28.9 32.3 0.1

Croatia

4.6 2.6 6.1 3.6 4.4 0.1 29.3 28.6 34.8 33.9 35.9 0.1

Curacao

0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.8 0.0

Cyprus

2.6 1.7 1.4 8.5 1.5 0.0 7.0 7.6 8.3 12.6 13.4 0.0

Czech Republic

7.4 8.7 9.1 11.5 13.4 0.2 65.1 60.7 73.9 70.4 76.6 0.2

Denmark

6.6 12.1 13.9 13.2 10.2 0.1 99.5 91.7 103.4 101.2 105.3 0.2

Dominican Republic

4.4 3.2 3.5 3.8 3.7 0.0 17.0 19.2 21.9 24.7 27.2 0.1

Ecuador

2.2 11.6 13.7 5.9 5.5 0.1 17.4 23.7 30.6 33.2 35.8 0.1

Egypt

37.3 93.3 33.6 17.7 27.6 0.4 290.2 356.1 184.9 210.4 227.9 0.5

El Salvador

0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 1.6 0.0 7.1 7.4 8.5 8.7 8.8 0.0

Estonia

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Ethiopia

0.7 3.4 3.2 0.9 1.3 0.0 9.2 11.9 11.3 11.9 13.5 0.0

Fiji

0.2 1.7 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.6 2.5 1.8 2.0 2.3 0.0

Finland

12.2 15.4 15.5 11.8 11.7 0.2 108.7 107.9 126.9 120.2 128.0 0.3

France

207.5 207.0 211.3 230.5 233.7 3.0 1,716.2 1,708.3 2,022.1 2,011.1 2,214.0 4.4

Georgia

0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.9 1.7 2.0 2.6 2.8 0.0

Germany

173.1 177.1 176.2 171.4 191.7 2.5 1,248.7 1,193.2 1,356.4 1,281.3 1,362.0 2.7

Ghana

0.6 4.5 4.8 3.9 2.7 0.0 12.7 14.0 26.0 26.1 25.5 0.1

Greece

0.0 0.0 3.7 3.5 8.2 0.1 16.3 53.8 78.4 76.5 70.4 0.1

Guatemala

1.6 2.0 1.8 1.8 2.1 0.0 8.9 8.7 9.9 11.0 12.3 0.0

Guernsey

0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.0

Honduras

0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.0 4.7 5.0 6.2 6.4 6.8 0.0

Hong Kong

4.9 3.7 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 14.8 15.2 16.4 15.7 16.4 0.0

Hungary

13.3 11.6 17.0 17.9 17.0 0.2 75.2 77.4 94.7 94.5 93.3 0.2

Iceland

0.4 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 10.3 10.0 8.7 6.8 6.5 0.0

India

143.7 107.0 86.7 73.0 89.4 1.1 1,258.4 874.5 984.1 1,007.5 1,110.4 2.2

Indonesia

37.0 31.0 58.1 57.8 51.8 0.7 174.0 199.6 243.1 245.4 268.7 0.5

Iraq

12.4 13.6 6.3 0.0 5.5 0.1 58.8 68.8 73.7 72.0 79.2 0.2

Ireland

14.8 9.4 19.2 20.8 18.7 0.2 159.3 153.3 183.7 182.6 194.9 0.4

Israel

18.7 25.9 28.5 27.9 28.0 0.4 186.2 192.7 215.5 210.3 219.4 0.4

Italy

278.7 283.1 311.2 294.7 291.0 3.7 1,975.4 1,968.2 2,286.3 2,243.5 2,411.3 4.8

Jamaica

0.7 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.0 12.2 4.4 12.0 11.2 10.9 0.0

Japan

1,767.5 1,918.4 1,755.1 1,789.9 1,738.0 22.3 8,668.8 9,188.9 9,617.0 9,748.0 9,919.8 19.8

Jersey

0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.0

Jordan

2.4 4.1 7.5 6.8 7.1 0.1 26.7 29.6 31.0 33.6 35.3 0.1

Kazakhstan

6.3 0.5 5.0 3.4 4.1 0.1 19.5 19.3 23.4 25.0 27.0 0.1

Kenya

4.7 3.1 6.3 6.2 6.2 0.1 17.3 20.4 26.5 31.3 34.3 0.1

Korea

96.6 87.1 89.2 88.5 88.0 1.1 474.7 490.1 586.1 579.4 618.8 1.2

Kuwait

0.5 8.1 14.8 0.0 15.3 0.2 12.5 20.4 23.8 20.0 32.0 0.1

Latvia

1.5 1.7 1.3 1.6 1.7 0.0 7.3 8.6 9.9 10.1 11.9 0.0

Lebanon

12.8 13.0 15.7 18.6 19.0 0.2 67.2 72.4 77.3 83.6 89.4 0.2

Liechtenstein

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Lithuania

3.0 1.7 3.1 1.2 3.4 0.0 14.3 13.5 17.2 15.2 18.4 0.0

Luxembourg

0.0 0.0 2.3 0.0 1.8 0.0 8.1 6.6 9.9 9.4 11.5 0.0

Macedonia

0.5 0.7 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.0 2.7 3.1 3.7 4.0 4.8 0.0

Malaysia

25.0 22.3 26.5 28.0 29.2 0.4 145.4 143.1 167.7 172.5 207.9 0.4

Malta

0.5 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.0 5.8 5.8 6.4 6.1 6.4 0.0

Mexico

60.3 52.3 50.1 54.9 54.7 0.7 329.8 298.5 364.6 399.1 416.8 0.8

Mongolia

1.0 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.0 5.2 5.7 6.6 6.3 6.6 0.0

Montenegro

0.3 0.5 0.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.2 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.0 0.0

Montserrat

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Morocco

13.8 10.7 11.4 12.3 11.1 0.1 54.0 55.5 62.7 66.0 67.6 0.1

Mozambique

0.1 4.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 2.3 5.8 6.9 8.1 9.0 0.0

Netherlands

52.6 29.5 36.8 27.9 24.5 0.3 381.6 367.7 397.6 367.3 371.7 0.7

New Zealand

8.5 5.4 5.7 5.0 5.6 0.1 50.2 53.3 59.8 55.2 59.9 0.1

Nicaragua

0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.0

Nigeria

5.0 10.1 10.7 11.0 9.3 0.1 46.8 46.1 49.2 52.9 57.7 0.1

Norway

6.7 7.1 7.0 6.5 6.5 0.1 48.1 53.2 56.5 56.5 53.7 0.1

Oman

7.2 10.7 10.5 8.0 6.3 0.1 10.5 17.2 20.4 28.0 34.4 0.1

Pakistan

39.7 37.1 39.1 37.2 29.2 0.4 132.0 143.3 151.2 149.7 141.5 0.3

Panama

1.7 2.0 1.9 2.5 3.0 0.0 15.7 16.8 18.0 19.8 22.0 0.0

Papua New Guinea

0.5 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.0 4.6 4.7 3.4 3.6 3.7 0.0

Paraguay

0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.0 3.1 3.5 4.2 4.5 4.9 0.0

Peru

6.4 8.2 7.5 8.7 5.2 0.1 29.9 33.3 40.2 44.7 49.2 0.1

Philippines

11.6 9.0 16.0 11.4 18.7 0.2 108.6 105.9 116.3 118.6 129.2 0.3

Poland

33.4 44.1 32.9 33.7 35.4 0.5 189.5 198.5 239.6 228.2 237.6 0.5

Portugal

32.9 29.0 33.0 27.4 25.6 0.3 166.3 176.3 216.0 220.6 240.2 0.5

Qatar

4.1 14.6 19.5 8.5 8.5 0.1 57.4 67.9 83.0 89.5 95.3 0.2

Ras Al Khaimah

1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Romania

9.5 12.4 12.3 15.0 17.0 0.2 55.7 59.4 73.9 84.2 99.6 0.2

Russia

13.8 18.7 37.1 21.3 27.3 0.4 112.4 138.2 164.0 147.5 165.4 0.3

Rwanda

0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 0.0

Saudi Arabia

26.1 53.4 37.1 29.6 29.3 0.4 26.9 84.4 118.1 147.7 173.9 0.3

Senegal

0.8 0.6 1.3 2.8 2.4 0.0 2.2 3.8 4.9 6.0 6.8 0.0

Serbia

4.2 3.8 3.4 2.9 2.9 0.0 16.8 15.0 15.5 14.1 13.5 0.0

Sharjah

0.9 1.5 1.6 3.2 1.8 0.0 3.2 4.0 4.9 6.8 7.2 0.0

Singapore

29.8 26.8 36.2 42.8 47.7 0.6 297.8 297.3 364.6 374.4 411.7 0.8

Slovakia

3.6 5.6 6.9 3.7 4.8 0.1 38.3 37.8 44.4 43.2 47.2 0.1

Slovenia

3.6 5.5 7.3 4.1 2.8 0.0 29.1 27.9 33.7 32.7 34.3 0.1

South Africa

13.7 15.4 17.4 17.2 16.4 0.2 129.9 163.2 201.8 194.3 205.3 0.4

Spain

154.2 132.6 156.6 155.7 147.9 1.9 925.5 932.1 1,022.7 1,035.4 1,127.1 2.2

Sri Lanka

9.2 7.3 7.9 8.8 8.6 0.1 43.8 48.3 53.5 49.8 51.2 0.1

Suriname

0.9 0.9 0.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.4 1.5 0.0

Sweden

23.0 18.4 14.5 14.9 9.7 0.1 166.3 148.7 161.8 141.8 136.5 0.3

Switzerland

3.4 3.4 3.9 2.3 2.5 0.0 84.9 76.9 78.6 72.5 68.6 0.1

Taiwan

2.8 3.7 3.0 8.1 6.3 0.1 159.6 165.6 181.0 183.0 191.1 0.4

Tajikistan

N/A 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.0 N/A 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.0

Thailand

6.7 22.9 32.9 36.0 40.4 0.5 105.7 117.0 144.6 160.9 179.6 0.4

Trinidad and Tobago

0.6 1.7 0.8 0.8 1.3 0.0 11.9 7.2 8.2 8.4 9.6 0.0

Turkey

37.2 35.6 44.9 32.6 37.5 0.5 211.7 196.6 209.3 181.6 198.5 0.4

Turks and Caicos Islands

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Uganda

0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.2 3.6 3.3 3.6 4.4 0.0

Ukraine

6.3 11.2 16.4 4.4 8.8 0.1 38.3 43.4 47.2 46.8 44.0 0.1

United Kingdom

195.1 183.7 168.1 135.6 160.0 2.1 2,092.9 2,414.9 2,708.0 2,594.8 2,786.7 5.5

United States

2,122.5 2,169.4 2,224.3 2,684.6 2,865.0 36.8 13,191.5 13,908.2 14,468.8 15,589.7 16,483.0 32.8

Uruguay

4.2 1.7 3.0 3.4 2.9 0.0 19.7 23.8 26.1 26.6 28.1 0.1

Uzbekistan

N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 N/A N/A 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.0

Vietnam

5.6 7.5 5.4 6.2 6.4 0.1 45.5 50.2 46.2 48.1 53.3 0.1

Zambia

2.7 1.7 2.0 2.0 1.9 0.0 5.7 7.9 10.4 10.1 11.8 0.0
Gross Commercial Long-Term Borrowing Total Commercial Debt, Year-end (incl. short-term)
Breakdown by region
World 6,719.5 7,120.6 7,293.6 7,541.7 7,784.9 100.0 40,725.4 42,724.5 46,463.9 47,510.4 50,225.7 1,000.0
G7 4,822.5 5,043.7 4,953.3 5,419.3 5,592.4 71.8 29,377.4 30,899.4 33,010.8 34,013.9 35,727.7 71.1
Euro Area 1,006.4 971.4 1,055.6 1,025.0 1,029.6 13.2 7,448.9 7,414.5 8,535.8 8,355.5 8,985.5 17.9
Asia-Pacific 2,611.1 2,835.0 2,826.8 2,872.8 2,872.7 36.9 13,667.7 14,025.6 15,249.6 15,508.2 16,195.9 32.2
Europe (incl. CIS) 1,407.3 1,379.9 1,485.1 1,377.3 1,421.4 18.3 10,980.3 11,274.4 12,891.6 12,510.9 13,402.5 26.7
Latin America 338.0 344.6 404.0 320.7 322.3 4.1 1,490.4 1,857.6 2,156.5 2,130.3 2,255.5 4.5
Middle-East Northern Africa 121.6 232.3 174.4 108.8 135.7 1.7 633.0 809.0 725.6 806.2 891.6 1.8
North America 2,200.7 2,274.3 2,331.4 2,797.1 2,977.9 38.3 13,675.4 14,425.9 15,021.0 16,135.2 17,033.9 33.9
Sub-Saharan Africa 40.8 54.5 71.8 65.0 54.9 0.7 278.6 332.1 419.6 419.7 446.3 0.9
Breakdown by foreign currency rating category
AAA 453.6 454.2 459.0 436.6 453.6 5.8 3,141.8 3,131.1 3,490.1 3,350.6 3,483.2 6.9
AA 2,746.9 2,809.9 2,868.7 3,274.3 3,496.3 44.9 18,776.2 19,859.6 21,299.6 22,244.8 23,660.6 47.1
A 2,380.2 2,666.4 2,650.2 2,697.6 2,676.8 34.4 11,890.0 12,574.0 13,599.4 13,850.1 14,436.1 28.7
BBB 663.6 622.6 705.5 670.4 683.4 8.8 4,620.9 4,305.5 5,015.5 5,078.7 5,504.1 11.0
BB 223.1 230.1 280.1 230.0 263.2 3.4 1,019.4 1,308.7 1,500.9 1,434.2 1,580.1 3.1
B 251.7 332.1 328.8 231.1 210.0 2.7 1,269.2 1,531.9 1,542.6 1,535.3 1,543.8 3.1
CCC/CC 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.0 0.0 1.5 1.8 2.5 3.0 3.4 0.0
SD 0.3 5.3 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 6.4 11.9 13.2 13.7 14.4 0.0
Investment grade 6,244.3 6,553.1 6,683.4 7,078.9 7,310.2 93.9 38,428.8 39,870.1 43,404.6 44,524.2 47,084.0 93.7
Speculative grade 475.2 567.5 610.0 462.8 474.7 6.1 2,296.6 2,854.4 3,059.2 2,986.1 3,141.7 6.3
F--Forecast. SD--Selective default. N/A--Not applicable.

Table 3

Sovereign Debt Structure (% Of Total Debt, Including Bi-/Multilateral)
2018 2019f
Commercial debt (% of total) Short-term debt (% of total) Foreign currency debt (% of total) Long-term fixed-rate debt (% of total debt) Inflation-indexed debt (% of total) Bi-/Multilateral debt (% of total) Rollover ratio (% of total debt) Rollover ratio (% of GDP) Bi-/Multilateral debt (% of total)
Abu Dhabi (Emirate of) 100.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 11.6 0.7 0.0
Albania 65.8 18.3 47.7 56.1 0.0 34.2 28.9 18.0 33.7
Andorra 100.0 12.8 0.0 76.9 0.0 0.0 41.3 13.2 0.0
Angola 73.6 2.3 66.0 48.9 0.0 26.4 17.1 14.5 25.9
Argentina 82.6 11.7 76.4 57.7 0.0 17.4 15.8 11.7 24.6
Aruba 99.5 2.8 40.4 85.9 0.0 0.5 8.8 7.4 0.4
Australia 100.0 0.7 0.0 92.4 7.0 0.0 7.3 2.1 0.0
Austria 100.0 2.4 0.0 95.8 0.0 0.0 13.9 7.3 0.0
Azerbaijan 70.2 0.8 95.0 99.2 0.0 29.8 2.5 0.9 28.4
Bahamas 96.2 13.5 34.6 45.2 0.0 3.8 16.5 9.7 3.8
Bahrain 100.0 19.1 50.0 80.9 0.0 0.0 23.1 19.2 0.0
Bangladesh 52.0 5.0 49.0 91.2 0.0 48.0 7.6 2.4 48.0
Barbados 88.7 2.3 24.5 97.7 0.0 11.3 6.3 7.5 12.2
Belarus 29.1 0.0 96.7 53.7 0.0 70.9 9.6 4.1 73.5
Belgium 100.0 9.4 0.0 90.5 0.1 0.0 15.6 13.0 0.0
Belize 59.4 7.6 70.2 88.5 5.0 40.6 16.9 15.6 41.6
Benin 57.7 5.0 45.8 94.3 0.0 42.4 12.9 7.1 60.9
Bermuda 100.0 0.0 98.1 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Bolivia (Plurinational State of) 34.6 0.0 70.0 60.0 12.0 65.4 9.9 3.8 65.0
Bosnia and Herzegovina 1.5 0.0 100.0 57.8 0.0 98.5 8.3 1.9 98.8
Botswana 41.2 3.7 58.8 43.3 0.0 58.8 23.5 3.1 56.1
Brazil 99.6 0.3 4.0 32.8 27.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1
Bulgaria 86.1 0.0 81.4 96.1 0.0 13.9 5.4 1.1 13.7
Burkina Faso 37.0 0.0 63.0 100.0 0.0 63.0 0.0 0.0 63.0
Cameroon 39.7 0.0 74.6 100.0 0.0 60.3 0.0 0.0 60.3
Canada 100.0 16.1 2.3 75.0 8.4 0.0 31.7 9.6 0.0
Cape Verde 51.9 0.4 69.2 95.7 0.0 48.1 3.9 4.9 48.1
Chile 98.2 0.0 19.4 56.7 42.1 1.8 1.0 0.3 1.8
China 99.4 6.0 1.0 94.0 0.0 0.6 22.3 3.8 0.6
Colombia 87.1 2.2 33.7 85.6 0.0 12.9 8.2 4.4 12.5
Congo (the Democratic Republic of the) 48.7 0.0 51.5 100.0 0.0 51.3 0.1 0.0 51.3
Congo-Brazzaville 33.9 0.0 68.7 100.0 0.0 66.1 3.4 3.2 66.1
Cook Islands 0.0 0.0 73.0 N.A. N.A. 100.0 1.9 0.5 100.0
Costa Rica 93.8 5.9 41.4 72.1 6.4 6.2 11.6 6.7 4.4
Croatia 95.1 12.8 46.5 77.1 0.0 5.0 23.3 13.9 5.0
Curacao 100.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cyprus 52.5 1.2 3.3 61.2 0.0 47.5 11.1 10.6 45.7
Czech Republic 97.3 2.7 11.9 84.0 0.3 2.7 17.4 5.2 2.3
Denmark 100.0 4.9 0.2 88.0 7.1 0.0 15.2 4.0 0.0
Dominican Republic 78.4 0.0 68.4 87.4 0.0 21.6 4.8 2.0 20.8
Ecuador 67.2 0.0 97.9 74.5 0.0 32.8 8.7 4.4 32.8
Egypt 87.0 35.9 19.6 62.9 0.0 13.0 37.9 35.6 15.0
El Salvador 71.0 6.3 1.8 69.3 0.0 29.0 15.1 6.8 28.8
Estonia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 14.9 0.3 100.0
Ethiopia 46.7 15.8 57.2 84.2 0.0 53.3 13.9 4.7 53.3
Fiji 80.1 3.6 27.9 10.6 0.0 19.9 4.8 2.3 19.2
Finland 100.0 4.1 0.0 70.2 0.0 0.0 12.7 5.6 0.0
France 100.0 6.4 0.0 81.1 12.5 0.0 13.2 10.1 0.0
Georgia (Government of) 37.4 2.8 79.7 73.8 0.0 62.6 3.1 1.4 63.0
Germany 99.3 1.2 0.0 92.8 5.9 0.7 14.3 4.6 0.6
Ghana 80.6 6.1 53.1 75.1 18.8 19.4 14.3 6.4 19.0
Greece 18.6 11.1 2.1 78.2 0.4 81.4 14.9 26.9 83.1
Guatemala 58.0 0.0 46.3 76.9 0.0 42.0 4.8 1.1 38.7
Guernsey 100.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Honduras 56.0 0.0 64.0 72.0 3.0 44.0 6.2 3.1 44.0
Hong Kong 100.0 23.6 19.1 76.4 0.0 0.0 40.9 1.7 0.0
Hungary 93.1 17.6 20.1 44.1 11.6 6.9 29.4 19.0 6.9
Iceland 100.0 1.3 14.9 68.0 30.7 0.0 9.1 2.6 0.0
India 93.6 8.5 6.4 88.3 0.1 6.4 10.6 4.3 5.8
Indonesia 82.9 2.7 39.5 86.8 0.0 17.1 12.5 3.7 16.0
Iraq 60.0 32.0 68.0 68.0 0.0 40.0 30.7 20.3 40.0
Ireland 77.7 4.4 0.0 93.0 0.3 22.3 12.3 7.6 21.8
Israel 100.0 0.0 14.4 43.4 51.8 0.0 9.0 5.3 0.0
Italy 100.0 5.5 0.4 75.5 11.9 0.0 15.4 17.1 0.0
Jamaica 76.4 0.5 61.2 66.4 2.5 23.6 7.6 6.8 22.7
Japan 100.0 12.9 0.0 83.5 0.7 0.0 28.5 56.3 0.0
Jersey (States of) 100.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jordan 82.4 19.1 40.0 80.0 0.0 17.6 30.7 29.7 17.6
Kazakhstan 77.0 0.0 48.3 68.2 11.6 23.0 5.3 1.1 19.6
Kenya 66.1 18.0 48.5 65.6 0.0 33.9 22.0 12.2 33.6
Korea (the Republic of) 100.0 12.6 1.1 87.4 0.0 0.0 20.1 7.5 0.0
Kuwait 100.0 16.7 40.0 83.3 0.0 0.0 20.8 5.2 0.0
Latvia 86.8 3.7 0.0 84.7 0.0 13.2 12.8 4.5 7.0
Lebanon 97.5 2.5 42.2 96.9 0.0 2.5 17.3 27.4 2.9
Liechtenstein N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.M. N.M. N.M.
Lithuania 88.5 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 11.6 5.1 1.9 11.2
Luxembourg 90.3 5.5 0.0 94.5 0.0 9.7 7.2 1.2 3.7
Macedonia 80.6 12.2 79.1 76.9 0.0 19.4 16.4 7.1 18.2
Malaysia 99.1 1.0 2.9 99.0 0.0 0.9 8.8 5.0 0.7
Malta 100.0 5.4 0.0 92.3 0.0 0.0 13.6 5.8 0.0
Mexico 93.4 8.8 22.9 58.5 20.0 6.6 14.7 5.3 6.4
Mongolia 67.0 6.1 50.0 93.9 0.0 33.0 9.6 6.9 33.0
Montenegro 64.4 2.9 19.3 71.4 0.0 35.6 15.2 9.7 43.7
Montserrat 0.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 100.0 5.3 0.3 100.0
Morocco 84.6 2.7 20.7 88.5 0.0 15.4 14.4 9.6 17.0
Mozambique 51.0 1.1 80.0 74.1 0.0 49.0 1.9 2.2 47.0
Netherlands 100.0 7.3 0.0 92.8 0.0 0.0 16.8 6.6 0.0
New Zealand 100.0 5.0 0.0 76.5 18.5 0.0 18.0 5.2 0.0
Nicaragua 14.2 0.0 100.0 77.0 0.0 85.8 5.5 2.1 87.5
Nigeria 80.0 19.8 33.9 64.1 0.0 20.0 20.9 4.1 20.0
Norway 100.0 14.1 0.0 85.3 0.0 0.0 29.6 3.6 0.0
Oman 74.5 1.9 81.5 72.3 0.0 25.6 3.8 2.1 22.9
Pakistan 75.1 37.5 32.2 25.8 0.0 24.9 43.9 31.4 25.0
Panama 77.3 1.3 2.0 81.0 0.0 22.7 5.2 2.1 20.3
Papua New Guinea 45.0 36.5 38.3 63.5 0.0 55.0 38.2 13.7 55.0
Paraguay 65.8 0.0 83.9 73.2 0.0 34.2 3.8 0.7 34.2
Peru 89.0 1.3 30.9 86.9 2.4 11.0 2.5 0.6 10.1
Philippines 87.1 6.8 33.0 90.5 0.0 12.9 12.3 5.0 12.5
Poland 92.6 0.2 30.2 74.7 0.7 7.4 9.2 4.0 6.9
Portugal 78.5 8.8 1.6 83.3 0.0 21.5 14.3 17.2 20.9
Qatar 100.0 7.4 44.2 92.6 0.0 0.0 10.6 5.1 0.0
Ras Al Khaimah (Emirate of) N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.M. N.M. N.M.
Romania 90.0 16.1 42.0 80.7 0.0 10.0 25.4 10.2 8.0
Russia 99.3 0.0 25.2 82.6 16.7 0.7 9.9 1.1 0.6
Rwanda 27.9 8.8 81.1 90.8 0.0 72.1 8.5 4.1 73.3
Saudi Arabia 100.0 0.0 51.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.4 0.0
Senegal 52.1 0.0 79.2 100.0 0.0 47.9 11.5 5.6 47.9
Serbia 58.1 0.0 72.1 83.2 0.0 42.0 14.8 7.1 42.9
Sharjah (Emirate of) 100.0 0.0 51.6 39.1 0.0 0.0 18.5 4.8 0.0
Singapore 100.0 7.8 0.0 92.2 0.0 0.0 13.0 15.2 0.0
Slovakia 94.3 2.0 5.5 98.0 0.0 5.7 6.1 2.7 6.0
Slovenia 97.9 1.3 8.3 97.7 0.0 2.1 9.7 5.9 2.0
South Africa 100.0 11.9 11.2 56.8 20.1 0.0 13.6 7.8 0.0
Spain 96.9 8.9 0.1 100.0 6.0 3.1 18.0 13.9 3.0
Sri Lanka 79.6 9.4 48.5 90.6 0.0 20.4 18.2 14.0 20.4
Suriname 59.2 6.9 69.2 93.1 0.0 40.8 10.6 6.2 38.7
Sweden 100.0 10.1 29.4 73.2 16.8 0.0 29.0 6.5 0.0
Switzerland 100.0 8.4 0.0 91.6 0.0 0.0 17.5 1.7 0.0
Taiwan 100.0 1.8 0.0 98.2 0.0 0.0 5.1 1.6 0.0
Tajikistan 13.6 0.5 79.6 95.1 0.4 86.4 3.0 1.7 86.4
Thailand 96.0 11.0 4.0 75.6 3.0 4.0 11.3 4.0 4.0
Trinidad and Tobago 84.5 4.8 38.1 75.5 0.0 15.5 7.1 3.4 15.1
Turkey 90.1 1.1 45.5 74.2 12.7 9.9 11.4 3.0 8.3
Turks and Caicos Islands 71.2 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 28.9 209.2 0.8 68.2
Uganda 32.6 11.6 67.9 83.0 0.0 67.4 12.2 4.7 63.8
Ukraine 74.2 3.8 66.6 70.5 0.0 25.8 13.9 7.6 35.3
United Kingdom 100.0 2.8 0.0 64.1 33.1 0.0 8.0 7.5 0.0
United States 100.0 15.0 0.0 73.6 9.1 0.0 26.2 20.2 0.0
Uruguay 90.6 0.0 53.8 58.3 36.1 9.4 4.9 2.5 9.4
Uzbekistan 0.9 0.6 99.0 61.5 0.0 99.1 4.3 1.0 89.9
Vietnam 40.0 24.6 60.0 64.7 0.0 60.0 25.3 13.2 60.0
Zambia 70.0 10.0 60.0 90.0 0.0 30.0 15.0 9.5 30.0

Related Research

  • Sovereign Debt 2019: Sub-Saharan African Eurobond Issuance To Moderate After Record Issuance In 2018, Feb. 21, 2019
  • Sovereign Debt 2019: CEE and CIS Commercial Borrowing To Increase By 15% To $187 Billion, Feb. 21, 2019
  • Sovereign Debt 2019: Emerging Market Borrowing Is Set To Increase By 5.6% To $1. 4 Trillion, Feb. 21, 2019
  • Sovereign Debt 2019: MENA Borrowing To Increase By 25% To $136 Billion, Feb. 21, 2019
  • Sovereign Debt 2019: Latin American And Caribbean Commercial Borrowing Is Likely To Remain Stable At $322 Billion, Feb. 21, 2019
  • Sovereign Debt 2019: Eurozone Commercial Borrowing To Increase 1.6% In 2019, Feb. 22, 2019
  • Sovereign Debt 2019: Asia-Pacific Central Governments Set To Borrow Nearly US$3 Trillion, Feb. 22, 2019
  • Global Sovereign Rating Trends 2019, Jan. 14, 2019
  • Sovereign Risk Indicators, Dec. 13, 2018; a free interactive version is available at http://www.spratings.com/sri

This report does not constitute a rating action.

Primary Credit Analyst:Karen Vartapetov, PhD, Frankfurt (49) 69-33-999-225;
karen.vartapetov@spglobal.com
Secondary Contacts:Sebastian S Sundvik, London + 44 20 7176 8600;
Sebastian.Sundvik@spglobal.com
Patricio E Vimberg, Buenos Aires (54) 114-891-2132;
patricio.vimberg@spglobal.com
Research Contributor:Hari Krishan, Mumbai;
hari.krishan@spglobal.com
Additional Contact:EMEA Sovereign and IPF;
SovereignIPF@spglobal.com

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