The credit downturn caused by COVID-19 has been abrupt and severe, with a tremendous variance of impact across different corporate sectors. As markets begin to reopen, we will continue to share our views on the economic and credit implications.View all related research
Our periodic roundup of key takeaways from our articles brings together all of S&P Global Ratings’ coronavirus-related research—including our regularly updated list of rating actions we have taken globally on corporations, sovereigns, and project finance.
Negative ratings actions have eased and financial markets steadied, but downgrade prospects remain high and second-quarter results will be closely scrutinized. Bank credit losses will likely more than double from 2019 levels in the next two years.Read the Weekly Digest
Published July 1, 2020
The COVID-19 health and economic shock appears to have peaked in most developed countries and China while many emerging markets struggle to contain the virus and the economic fallout. The focus has shifted to the recovery, which will be longer and more complicated than the downturn.
We now forecast global GDP to contract 3.8% in 2020, worse than the 2.4% contraction we previously expected, mainly reflecting a deeper, longer hit to emerging markets, led by India. We see a reasonably strong bounce in 2021-2023 with global growth averaging above 4%, but with permanent lost output from the COVID-19 shock.
The risks to our baseline are varied and remain on the downside. Health developments and related restrictions are key in the next year; productivity and public balance sheet risks lie further out.
At S&P Global Ratings we are continuously assessing the economic and credit impact of the COVID-19 pandemic around the world. Subscribe to our Coronavirus Bulletin today and we will ensure you have all our latest research and forecasts as they are published.Subscribe to our newsletter
Global Credit Conditions
Published July 1, 2020
Credit damage. The COVID-led recession will likely weigh on credit metrics well into 2023 from the combination of lost output and increased debt burdens, threatening corporate solvency.
A different recovery. The shape of recovery will differ from previous crises, with a wide range of outcomes across industries and geographies, and accelerating some secular industry shifts.
Swift stimulus worked; pull-back carries risks. Central banks and governments acted promptly and massively to limit the damages to the real economy and the markets, but debt levels took another step up, making the unwinding of this liquidity support difficult, and widening the gap between market prices and credit fundamentals.
Profound political impact. National and international fragmentation could intensify as lowincome populations are suffering disproportionately, exacerbating inequalities and social tensions, while the disruption of critical supply chains revives economic nationalism.
Opportunities. The crisis could present an opportunity for governments to support the recovery through infrastructure investment, supporting a green, digital, and more sustainable economy.
Here, S&P Global Ratings answers the top 10 investor questions we've received regarding the analytical decision-making process.Read the Full Report
COVID-19 Heat Map:
While businesses around the world are starting to reopen, albeit unevenly, after coronavirus-driven lockdowns, S&P Global Ratings expects credit measures for some sectors to take until 2022, 2023, and beyond, to fully recover. Credit measures were weak prior to the pandemic, as demonstrated by the proliferation of low-speculative-grade ratings in non-financial corporates. The global pandemic and oil & gas price collapse and resulting economic recession have led to significant downgrade actions, particularly in the most affected sectors.
Watch a Summary
Published July 8, 2020
Secondary trading in credit markets has changed meaningfully in the last 10 years, including the retreat of traditional providers of liquidity, such as broker-dealers, and the rise of exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
ETFs are playing an increasing role in providing secondary market liquidity, which was on display during the recent volatility.
As both primary and secondary bond markets faced illiquidity, record ETF volumes helped to support liquidity and, importantly, provide price discovery.
Default, Transition, And Recovery
S&P Global Ratings Credit Markets Research is used by the world’s financial markets when they need data driven insights and analysis. Whether to help evaluate strategic portfolio positions, develop investment ideas, or identify potential gaps and opportunities, we provide top-down information on ratings transitions and anomalies, ratings performance, and default and recovery research.Click Here to Find The Latest Studies
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Published June 4, 2020
Unprecedented employment challenges stemming from the coronavirus pandemic are rippling across the broader economy and affecting how employees operate and interact with their employers.
The fallout from the pandemic is unevenly affecting lower-wage workers who have less access to paid time off, health care, or job security. This has prompted a reconsideration of the value of workers including the salaries and benefits they are being offered.
It has also presented a rare opportunity for employees to leverage the pandemic as a platform to demand change in the workplace, including improved health and safety measures.
Workplace culture is more fluid now than ever, and corporations will likely need to make significant financial and time investments in their employees to remain competitive in the post-pandemic labor market. Ultimately, we believe changing workforce dynamics will have profound future implications on the workplace structure, health and safety benefits offered to employees, and technological innovation.
Today, investors who deliberately apply an ESG lens to investing are growing rapidly worldwide as more come to realize the risks of separating such issues from business fundamentals. S&P Global Ratings ESG Evaluation, and its related research, insight, and analysis, is for companies looking to help their investors gain a better understanding of their strategy, purpose and management quality.Read the Latest Research