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Balkans hydropower production drops again in Week 9

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Balkans hydropower production drops again in Week 9

亮点

Output down 8-9% on week in Romania, Serbia

Hydro reserves flat in Romania, keep falling in Bulgaria

Production steady this week, possible rise next week

Budapest — Hydropower output in the Balkans dropped slightly further in Week 9, as a minimal drop in Danube flows was coupled with mixed changes in reservoir output, according to hydrological reports and Entso-e data.

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Looking ahead, hydro production looks set to be similar this week, but could rise next week amid mild weather, rainfall and snowmelt.

Hydropower output in Romania -- dominated by the Iron Gate power station -- was 232 GWh last week, down 9.5% from the previous week, as run-of-river output was little changed but reservoir production fell by a third to its lowest in more than a year.

Hydroelectric reserves increased by just 0.4% from the week before to 1.39 TWh, or 47.5% of capacity, and have been more or less unchanged since late January. In a year-on-year comparison, output and reserves fell by 39.0% and 5.8% respectively.

Danube flows entering Romania are forecast to be steady to slightly lower this week, remaining well below typical March levels, according to the National Institute of Hydrology and Water Management. The Danube downstream of Iron Gate will mostly fall.

In Serbia, which shares Iron Gate capacities with Romania, hydropower production fell by 7.6% week on week to 201 GWh, on a combination of slightly lower run-of-river output and a moderately steeper fall in reservoir production. Output was also 21% lower year on year.

Hydroelectric reserves totaled 306 GWh at the end of Week 8 (the latest period with data), down 1.6% from the previous week and by 27% year on year.

The Danube will rise in the northern part Serbia this week, reaching the long-term March average, but will be little changed in the country's south just upstream of Iron Gate, according to the Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia.

In Slovakia, hydropower output increased by another 6.3% from the week before to 106 GWh last week, the highest in 22 months and also 71% higher year on year.

A further increase is possible this week, as Danube levels affecting Slovakia are forecast to be slightly higher, Hungary's National Hydrology Service said.

In Bulgaria, hydro production increased by 28% week on week to 76 GWh last week, as run-of-river output dropped but reservoir production increased by almost half.

As a result, hydroelectric reserves fell by 2.9% week on week to 1.17 TWh.

Year-on-year, output was down 29% while reserves were 31% lower.

Bulgarian rivers are forecast to be little changed early on this week, but could rise later owing to snowmelt, the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology said.

The Central European catchment area of the Danube will see slightly more rain this week than recently, at 4-10 millimeters in most regions and more than 20 mm in the Upper Drava region in the west and along the Upper Tisa in the east, according to Hungary's National Hydrology Service. Temperatures will also be higher than typical for this time of year.

-- Henry Edwardes-Evans, henry.edwardes-evans@spglobal.com

-- Balazs Szladek, newsdesk@spglobal.com

-- Edited by Alisdair Bowles, newsdesk@spglobal.com

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