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Market Movers Europe, Jul 12-16: European Commission unveils 2030 climate proposals as gas flows are constrained

Энергия | Energy Transition

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Смотреть видео: Market Movers Europe, Jul 12-16: European Commission unveils 2030 climate proposals as gas flows are constrained

In this week's highlights: plastics buyers weigh the cost of sustainability targets; the gas market will have to cope with a massive cut in Russian gas imports; and the latest oil sector reports, including from OPEC, will be closely watched.

  • European Commission set to unveil 2030 climate proposals (0:14)
  • R-PET hits highs, demand outstrips supplies (1:09)
  • Nord Stream maintenance to restrict gas flows (2:04)
  • Oil market reports, diplomacy in spotlight (2:58)
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In this week's highlights: plastics buyers weigh the cost of sustainability targets; the gas market will have to cope with a massive cut in Russian gas imports; and the latest oil sector reports, including from OPEC, will be closely watched.

But first, the European Commission is set to unveil a swathe of climate proposals - known as 'Fit for 55' - on Wednesday, aimed at reducing the bloc's emissions by 55% by 2030, from a 1990 baseline. At the heart of the package will be a revision of the EU Emissions Trading System, with a new standalone market for road transport and buildings from 2025 expected to target upstream fuel providers.

Also expected is a new 2030 target for renewable energy, up from 32% to around 40% of consumption, and proposals for a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism placing a charge on the carbon content of EU imports of electricity, metals, cement, and fertilizers.

As our charts show, the EC needs to find around 500 million tons of CO2 savings to get on a trajectory to limit global warming to two degrees Celsius.

In the here and now, prices for recycled polyethylene terephthalate - a commonly used polymer most strongly associated with bottled drinks - have risen to record highs as bottlenecks in the system emerge. The price of R-PET clear flakes has reached an all-time high of Eur1400/mt as production capacity and feedstock supply fails to keep up with record demand driven by ever-growing sustainability targets. Buyers are facing an uphill task in securing requested volumes, which has pushed some to abandon their recycled material targets for the month in favor of virgin PET, where clear flakes are Eur240/mt lower that the recycled counterpart.

And that takes us to our social media question for the week: How much will companies be prepared to pay to meet sustainability goals in a high-price environment? Tweet us your thoughts using the hashtag #PlattsMM.

In European gas, Russian gas flows are set to be constrained again this week with the start of planned annual maintenance work on the key Nord Stream gas pipeline to Germany from Tuesday.

The pipeline -- which will be closed completely until July 23 -- has been supplying some 158 million cubic meters per day of gas into Germany on average this year, or almost a half of Russian pipeline exports to Europe.

It follows the planned shutdown of the Yamal pipeline via Belarus and Poland, which took place over July 6-10.

The closure of Nord Stream comes at a time of sky-high European gas prices and very low storage levels, and will add to the current extreme market tightness in Europe.

According to S&P Global Platts price assessments, the benchmark TTF day-ahead price reached almost 38 euros per megawatt-hour in early July.

And to finish with, oil markets. After a turbulent week last week, we will be looking for the insights from two reports examining the fundamentals: the International Energy Agency's monthly oil market report, out on Tuesday; and OPEC's own report, landing on Thursday. These come amid heightened uncertainty following the impasse in the OPEC+ quota talks after the United Arab Emirates dug its heels in over its production goals.

In theory, without further agreement, current production quotas remain in place until April 2022, but the IEA has repeatedly warned of surging demand leading to shortages of oil, particularly over the summer. So far, market reaction has been subdued following an initial price spike as talks broke down on July 5.

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Thanks for kicking off your Monday with us and have a great week ahead!