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Saudi Aramco cuts Oct. OSPs for Asia, Med as OPEC+ keeps boosting output

Энергия | Energy Transition

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Saudi Aramco cuts Oct. OSPs for Asia, Med as OPEC+ keeps boosting output

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Asia OSPs cut more than market expected

US, Northwest Europe differentials unchanged

Middle East seen losing share in S. Korea

Saudi Aramco cut its October official selling prices for Asia and Mediterranean-bound crude and kept them unchanged for Northwest Europe and the US as OPEC+ continues to add more oil to the market.

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The price moves come on the heels of the Sept. 1 meeting of OPEC and its allies, which agreed to hike their collective crude production by 400,000 b/d in October, sticking to their plans to keep easing back their historic output cuts.

With crude prices above $70/b, economic growth firm and rival US production growth still relatively subdued, OPEC+ ministers saw no reason to change course, quickly wrapping up their virtual meeting in under an hour.

For Asia-bound crude, October differentials versus an Oman/Dubai basis for Super Light and Light grades were cut by $1.30/b, Extra Light by $1.20/b and Medium and Heavy grades by $1/b versus September levels, Aramco said in a Sept. 5 pricing letter.

Market participants expected a cut of OSPs to Asia by at least 30-50 cents/b on the month, with deeper cuts of around 50 cents/b -$1/b likely for Medium and Heavy grades. Meanwhile, the Brent/Dubai EFS structure and Dubai forward structure, which are deemed as barometers for OSPs to Asia prices, dropped by 32 cents/b and 86 cents/b, respectively, in the last five trading days of August compared with the end of July.

The Asia cuts compared with a rise in September, when Asia-bound crude OSPs were increased by 20-60 cents/b.

For crude destined for the Mediterranean, October differentials versus ICE Brent were lowered for Extra Light, Light, Medium and Heavy by 10 cents/b. The cuts were not as steep as in September, when OSPs for Mediterranean-bound crude were cut by 60-90 cents/b.

Aramco kept prices for crude bound to Northwest Europe and the US unchanged. September OSPs for Northwest Europe saw a drop of 50-70 cents/b.

For US-bound crude, Saudi Light, Medium and Heavy were all raised 10 cents/b on the month in September, with Extra Light seeing a 20 cents/b increase.

S&P Global Platts Analytics had expected Aramco to cut October OSPs to Asia more than market expectations thanks to a combination of sliding Asian runs, Saudi Arabia's increased allocation under the OPEC+ production hike and slightly higher availabilities due to reduced domestic crude demand.

The Middle East's crude market share remains intact in most Asian countries this year compared with a year ago and the pre-pandemic period except South Korea, according to Platts Analytics.

Saudi Aramco October OSP ($/b)

Grade
Destination
Basis
September
October
Change
S Light
Asia
Oman/Dubai
4.45
3.15
-1.30
Ex Light
Asia
Oman/Dubai
3.20
2.00
-1.20
Light
Asia
Oman/Dubai
3.00
1.70
-1.30
Medium
Asia
Oman/Dubai
2.45
1.45
-1.00
Heavy
Asia
Oman/Dubai
1.40
0.40
-1.00
Ex Light
NWE
ICE Brent
-0.80
-0.80
0.00
Light
NWE
ICE Brent
-1.70
-1.70
0.00
Medium
NWE
ICE Brent
-2.30
-2.30
0.00
Heavy
NWE
ICE Brent
-3.20
-3.20
0.00
Ex Light
MED
ICE Brent
-0.70
-0.80
-0.10
Light
MED
ICE Brent
-1.70
-1.80
-0.10
Medium
MED
ICE Brent
-2.40
-2.50
-0.10
Heavy
MED
ICE Brent
-3.10
-3.20
-0.10
Ex Light
US
ASCI
2.40
2.40
0.00
Light
US
ASCI
1.35
1.35
0.00
Medium
US
ASCI
0.65
0.65
0.00
Heavy
US
ASCI
0.20
0.20
0.00