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Balkans hydropower production dips in Week 52

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Balkans hydropower production dips in Week 52

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Hydro output down in Romania, Serbia, Bulgaria

Decline in reserves slows

Run-of-river production may rise this week

London — Hydropower output across the Balkans fell minimally in Week 52 as a jump in run-of-river output was offset by a steep drop in reservoir production amid low holiday demand, hydrological reports and Entso-e data showed Monday.

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A further rise in run-of-river production still cannot be ruled out this week as the Danube is dropping only slowly.

Hydropower output in Romania (dominated by the Iron Gate power station) was 228 GWh last week, down 5.4% from the previous week, as run-of-river output climbed to a four-month high but reservoir production dropped to a 10-month low.

As a result, hydroelectric reserves fell by just 1.5% week on week -- the slowest rate of decline since reserves peaked in early August -- to 1.52 TWh or 51.7% of capacity. Compared with the same week last year, output and hydroelectric reserves fell by 22% and 6.4%, respectively.

Danube flows entering Romania are forecast to drop slowly this week and ultimately dip below typical January levels, but will be still higher on average than last week, the National Institute of Hydrology and Water Management said. The Danube downstream of Iron Gate will still mostly rise.

In Serbia, which shares Iron Gate capacities with Romania, hydropower production was 162 GWh last week, down 2.8% from the week before as run-of-river output rose to a five-month high but reservoir production fell by half. Total hydro production was down 33% in a year-on-year comparison. Hydroelectric reserves hit a 19-month low of 355 GWh at the end of week 51 (the latest data available), down 3.5% week on week and 20% year on year.

The Danube in Serbia will on average be higher this week than last, even though it is already falling back after last week's steep rise, according to the Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia. Danube levels in Serbia will be in line with the long-term January average.

Hydropower output in Slovakia more than doubled week on week to an 11-month high of 104 GWh last week, and was also 22% higher year on year. Production may return to normal this week, however, as Danube levels affecting Slovakia are forecast to be significantly lower, Hungary's National Hydrology Service said.

Hydro production in Bulgaria fell by 42% week on week to 59 GWh last week, as run-of-river output was little changed but reservoir production fell by almost half. Output was still up 33% year on year, however. Bulgarian rivers are forecast to be unchanged or slightly lower this week, the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology said.

The Central European catchment area of the Danube will see a return of cold weather this week, along with snow and some rain, according to data from Hungary's National Hydrology Service. Precipitation will total 70-90 millimeters in Austria and 20-30 millimeters in other mountain regions; and about 10 mm in low-lying areas.

--Henry Edwardes-Evans, henry.edwardes-evans@spglobal.com

--Balazs Szladek, newsdesk@spglobal.com

--Edited by Jonathan Dart, newsdesk@spglobal.com