Vito Turitto, S&P Global Platts Lead Quantitative Analyst, outlines his expectations for Brent crude oil volatility during the month of August 2019.
The Dated Brent market experienced a good deal of volatility in July.
Nevertheless, despite the market uncertainty, good arbitrage conditions managed to push many cargoes of Forties towards the Far East.
On the other hand, though, North Sea crudes were pressured by competitive US barrels trading at a discount to BFOE grades.
In fact, the Dated Brent CFD forward curve went from a steep backwardation in the first 15 days of July to a contango in the second half of the month. Internationally, geopolitical concerns took the center stage even in July.
In fact, China has reported its slowest GDP growth rate since 1992, the trade conflicts between Washington and Beijing are still unresolved, and the International Monetary Fund has revised down by 0.1% its global growth projections for both 2019 and 2020 to 3.2% and 3.5% respectively.
Furthermore, the slow global growth forced the US Federal Reserve to cut its base rate by 25 basis points and the current macroeconomic scenario will certainly have a significant impact on Brent volatility.
Thank you for your interest. For a more comprehensive look at oil market volatility, please email us at pl_risk@spglobal.com