Washington — The US Energy Information Administration sees more global oil supply and slightly lower demand this year and next, despite production cuts by OPEC and US sanctions on Venezuela creating a potential supply disruption.
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EIA said Tuesday in its Short-Term Energy Outlook that the rise in US oil production would more than offset OPEC's cuts that started in January.
"Despite many uncertainties, EIA believes strong growth in global oil production will put downward pressure on prices," EIA Administrator Linda Capuano said in a statement.
OPEC members produced an estimated 30.73 million b/d in January, down from 31.37 million b/d in December.
Saudi Arabia cut production by 400,000 b/d from December to 10.1 million b/d in January, EIA said.
Sanctions-hit Iran pumped 2.65 million b/d in January, up 50,000 b/d from December and the first increase since October, EIA said.
Venezuelan output slipped to 1.22 million b/d in January, from 1.25 million b/d in December, EIA said.
While US sanctions imposed against Venezuela's state-owned oil company PDVSA last month "did not cause any immediate loss to global oil availability," EIA said, the measures "may disrupt regular trade flows and increase the risk for an oil supply outage."
Unplanned outages cut Libya's production to 830,000 b/d in January, compared with 1.15 million b/d in November, EIA said.
EIA sees OPEC production averaging 30.74 million b/d in 2019, down 140,000 b/d from last month's outlook, and 30.49 million b/d in 2020, down 410,000 b/d.
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