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US Northeast, Canada to have adequate summer power supply

Houston — The Northeast Power Coordinating Council expects adequate electric supply across the region this summer, even as the forecast is lower than the 2017 summer forecast, officials said Tuesday.

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The region expects a summer peakload of 104,137 MW, which is 1,140 MW lower than the summer 2017 forecast, Edward Schwerdt, NCC president and CEO, said during a media call.

"This continues the multi-year trend of declining forecast demand due to energy efficiency and conservation initiatives along with continued increase of behind-the-meter photovoltaic resources in New York, New England and Ontario," Schwerdt said.

The NPCC region includes the ISO New England, New York Independent System Operator, Ontario's Independent Electricity System Operator, Quebec, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia.



"Hot, muggy weather resulting in heavy use of air condition remains the main factor affecting the electric supply," Schwerdt said.

The summer peak is expected to occur during the week of July 8, when NPCC expects about 17,275 MW in spare operable capacity overall this summer. The lowest margin of 10,310 MW is expected the week of June 24 with the largest margin expected around 22,000 MW, Philip Fedora, NPCC assistant vice president of reliability services, said during Tuesday's call.

More than 3,750 MW of new capacity has been installed since last summer, primarily from natural gas dual fuel facilities, Fedora said. Even when factoring in retirements, derates and other adjustments, that's more than 2,950 MW of new capacity.

In New York, that includes 774 MW of new capacity year on year due to the addition of the 820-MW CPV Valley generation plant, despite the retirement of the 325-MW Ravenswoods GTs and the mothball of 446 MW from Selkirk unit 1 and 2, according to NPCC's Summer 2018 Reliability Assessment report.

In New England, there is 1,048 MW of new capacity thanks to the addition 674 MW from Salem Units 5 and 6, the 725-MW Towantic as well as 90 MW from Wallingford units 6 and 7, according to the report.

Ontario is expected to have 255 MW more capacity from 245 MW of wind, solar and hydro additions, even with 120 MW of gas retirements and other adjustments, according to the report.

Quebec and the Canadian Maritime Provinces are winter peaking and expect adequate summer supply with normal hydro conditions. Since last summer, Hydro-Quebec Production has added 800 MW of new capacity, according to the report.

--Kassia Micek, kassia.micek@spglobal.com

--Richard Rubin, richard.rubin@spglobal.com