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Watch: Market Movers Europe, May 24-28: Iran deal, Russia-Saudi meeting in the spotlight

In this week's highlights: Oil market giants Russia and Saudi Arabia hold a bilateral meeting, Russian gas transit via Ukraine is in focus, and Europe's power sector debates 2030 targets.

  • Iran deal on US sanctions yet to be finalized
  • Gazprom behaviour under scrutiny on Ukraine action
  • Europe's power sector debates 2030 targets
  • UK steel import quotas extension plan

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In this week's highlights: Oil market giants Russia and Saudi Arabia hold a bilateral meeting, Russian gas transit via Ukraine is in focus, and Europe's power sector debates 2030 targets.

But first, oil markets will be focused on US, Iranian and European negotiators who reconvene this week for a fifth - and what they hope will be final - round of talks over reinstating the nuclear deal.

With Iran scheduled to hold its presidential election June 18, S&P Global Platts Analytics expects the nuclear negotiations to reach a deal that will lead to full oil sanctions relief by September.

As you can see in this chart, that could boost Iranian crude and condensate exports by around 600,000 barrels a day by the end of the year, complicating OPEC+ plans to unwind from its production cut deal.

Iran produced 2.43 million barrels a day of crude oil in April, according to the monthly Platts survey of OPEC output, up from about 2 million at the end of 2020, as Iran has found increased buying interest from China.

We may be getting the Saudi and Russian perspective on this on Tuesday, when OPEC+ masterminds Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman and Russian deputy prime minister Alexander Novak meet virtually on Tuesday to discuss bilateral trade and cooperation.

In European gas, the market will be taking a keen interest this week in whether Russian gas giant Gazprom looks to buy additional transit capacity via Ukraine.

With European gas prices trading at high levels in recent months, many market participants have been expecting Gazprom to ramp up its exports to Europe over the summer by booking more capacity on the Ukrainian system, especially with strong demand for replenishing storage stocks.

Gazprom Export expects sales in Europe and Turkey in 2021 in a range of 175 to 183 billion cubic meters. As you can see in the chart, the lower end of this range would be flat year on year despite higher demand.

In power, Europe's generators, distributors and suppliers gather virtually on Tuesday for Eurelectric's Power Summit. The meeting is a significant opportunity for policymakers and industry leaders to discuss revisions being prepared by the European Commission on renewables, the carbon credits market, energy efficiency and sustainable finance to meet 2030 climate targets.

It will also be EDF CEO Jean-Bernard Levy's first outing as Eurelectric's new president. He is expected to call for a massive acceleration in permitting for wind and solar projects, and an equally expensive renewal of Europe's creaking power distribution networks.

And that takes us to our social media question for the week: What will the rising interest in voluntary carbon credits markets mean for prices? Tweet us your thoughts using the hashtag #PlattsMM.

And finally, Wednesday is the deadline for the UK Department for International Trade to receive feedback on its controversial proposal to extend steel safeguard tariffs and accompanying quotas on imports into the UK of key products including hot and cold rolled sheets and rebars. The Department wants to extend controls for three years beyond its expiry on June 30.

While supported by producers who will enjoy continuation of a protected market, consumers oppose the plan, which could keep prices for these commodity products at multi-year highs in an economy where inflation is starting to rear its head.

UK Steel, a producers' group, nonetheless considers the plan doesn't go far enough and is opposed to dropping quotas on other products where imports have been lower recently.

The Platts Atlas of Energy Transition is your map to the sustainable commodity markets of the future. You can explore the Atlas by visiting the address displayed on your screen.

Thanks for kicking off your Monday with us and have a great week ahead!