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Libya and Nigeria exempt from OPEC cuts, but not from speculation over their futures

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Listen: Libya and Nigeria exempt from OPEC cuts, but not from speculation over their futures

Speculation has begun to swirl about how OPEC and its 10 non-OPEC partners in their production cut agreement will handle the resurgence of Libya and Nigeria, whom they had exempted from the deal due to civil strife. The combined output of Libya and Nigeria in June was nearly 400,000 b/d above where it was in October, the benchmark month from which OPEC determined its cuts, and the prospects of further recovery in July seem likely.

Senior writer and OPEC specialist Herman Wang previews the upcoming July 24 meeting of the OPEC/non-OPEC monitoring committee overseeing the deal, which is sure to discuss the two exempt countries, even as their oil ministers appear likely to decline invitations to attend.

The episode also examines OPEC’s engagement with US shale companies, with Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo saying at the World Petroleum Congress in Istanbul last week that he planned to have further meetings with them to gain a better understanding of how they are responding to market signals.

And the podcast’s Get to Know an OPEC Member segment features founding member Venezuela, which has seen its output steadily decline and is now facing an economic, political and humanitarian crisis. Francisco Monaldi, a fellow in Latin American Energy Policy at the Baker Institute for Public Policy at Rice University, joins the podcast to discuss Venezuela’s oil outlook.

Related article:
OPEC June crude oil output 32.49 mil b/d, up 220,000 b/d from May: Platts survey

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