With the premium for very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) over high sulfur fuel oil (HSFO), known as the Hi-5 spread, looking set to remain above $100/mt, the demand for exhaust gas cleaning systems, or scrubbers, has a bright outlook. This will boost HSFO's share of the oil-based bunker demand through 2030, S&P Global Platts Analytics forecasts.
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The prediction of increased HSFO demand is ironic as the International Maritime Organization only last year banned 3.5% HSFO without the use of scrubbers. The oil-based bunkers market will reach 6.094 million b/d by 2030, with distillates accounting for 1.837 million b/d, LSFO at 2.427 million b/d and HSFO at 1.83 million b/d, according to Platts Analytics.