US President Joe Biden tried to revive the stalled Iran nuclear talks Sept. 21 by promising during his first address to the UN General Assembly that Washington would return to full compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action if Tehran does the same.
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The stalemate puts 1.7 million b/d in global oil supply at stake by the end of 2022, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics.
Separately, Iran's foreign ministry spokesman said Sept. 21 that Tehran was prepared to resume the talks in the "next few weeks," according to the state-run IRNA news agency.
Platts Analytics expects Iranian oil supply to rise to 3.87 million b/d by December 2022 if a deal is reached and US oil sanctions are removed. If talks are delayed further or collapse, the Iranian supply outlook would fall to 2.17 million b/d by the end of 2022, near last month's estimate of 2.15 million b/d.
"Today's news fits with our latest timeline for talks to resume in October or November, a deal reached in early [first-quarter] 2022, and full implementation/sanctions relief in April," said Paul Sheldon, Platts Analytics' chief geopolitical analyst.
The talks have stalled since mid-June when the sides paused for the Iran elections and were expected to start up shortly after President Ebrahim Raisi took office in early August.
While Iran was seen as dragging its feet on a seventh round of talks, Tehran said it would not hesitate to resume negotiations if they are determined to be in its interests.
"It seems to be that there's no rush on the Iranian side to get to the negotiating table," Chris Midgley, global head of analytics at Platts, said on a recent Capitol Crude podcast. "I think it's looking highly unlikely that a deal will be done this year."