Register with us today

and in less than 60 seconds continue your access to:Latest news headlinesAnalytical topics and featuresCommodities videos, podcast & blogsSample market prices & dataSpecial reportsSubscriber notes & daily commodity email alerts

Already have an account?

Log in to register

Forgot Password

Please Note: Platts Market Center subscribers can only reset passwords via the Platts Market Center

Enter your Email ID below and we will send you an email with your password.

  • Email Address* Please enter email address.

If you are a premium subscriber, we are unable to send you your password for security reasons. Please contact the Client Services team.

If you are a Platts Market Center subscriber, to reset your password go to the Platts Market Center to reset your password.

In this list

OPEC ups 2017 call on its crude oil to 32.7 mil b/d, 2018 to 32.8 mil

Oil | Crude Oil | Oil Risk | Shipping | Marine Fuels | Tankers

Saudi shut-in after attacks, and an exploding scrubber: just another week in oil


Platts Market Data – Oil

NGL | Oil | Crude Oil | LPG | Oil Risk | Petrochemicals

Platts University New York

Oil | Crude Oil | Oil Risk

After Abqaiq, analysts see higher oil price risk premium, more supply disruptions

OPEC ups 2017 call on its crude oil to 32.7 mil b/d, 2018 to 32.8 mil


Industry players, upstream and downstream markets, refineries, midstream transportation and financial reports

Supply and demand trends, government actions, exploration and technology

Daily futures summary

Weekly API statistics, and much more

London — OPEC's analysis arm on Tuesday issued a bullish outlook in its closely watched monthly oil report, raising its forecasts of 2017 and 2018 demand for the producer group's crude on expectations of a more robust global economy.

Not registered?

Receive daily email alerts, subscriber notes & personalize your experience.

Register Now

The report comes as oil ministers are mulling an extension of output cuts to maintain their handle on the market.

Demand for OPEC crude this year will average 32.67 million b/d, OPEC said, a rise of 200,000 b/d from August's estimate, while 2018 demand will grow to 32.83 million b/d, a 400,000 b/d increase from August's forecast.

That compares with OPEC's August output of 32.76 million b/d, as estimated by OPEC's secondary sources, the report showed.

OECD commercial stocks fell 18.7 million barrels in July and stand 195 million barrels above the five-year average, according to the report, down from close to 340 million barrels at the beginning of the year.

"It is clear that the rebalancing process is underway," OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo said in a speech at Oxford University on Monday, before the report was released. "Destocking, both onshore and offshore, is clearly evident."

OPEC ministers have held a flurry of bilateral meetings in recent days, discussing, among other things, potentially extending the OPEC/non-OPEC production cut agreement past its March expiry, as backed by Saudi Arabia and Russia.

A monitoring committee, composed of ministers from Algeria, Kuwait, Oman, Russia and Venezuela, was scheduled to meet September 22 in Vienna to discuss the agreement. Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih, who holds the rotating OPEC presidency, may also attend.

Falih and UAE counterpart Suhail al-Mazrouei "agreed that an extension of the declaration beyond March 31, 2018, may be considered in due course as fundamentals unfold," the Saudi energy ministry said in a statement after their meeting Monday.


The deal, which went into force in January, calls on OPEC and 10 non-OPEC producers, led by Russia, to cut a combined 1.8 million b/d from the market, to hasten the drawdown of oil stocks to their five-year average.

For OPEC, that includes a notional ceiling of 31.9 million b/d, when Indonesia, which suspended its membership in November, is taken out, and Equatorial Guinea, which joined in May, is added in.

OPEC's August output, as estimated by secondary sources in the report, was far above that, reflecting growth from Libya and Nigeria, which were exempted from the cuts as they recovered from civil unrest.

Libya produced 890,000 b/d in August, according to the report, a 112,000 b/d fall from July as some fields were shut in by militants, but a 360,000 b/d rise from October, the benchmark month from which OPEC determined its cuts.

Nigeria produced 1.86 million b/d in August, the report said, a 140,000 b/d rise from July and a 230,000 b/d increase from October.

Representatives from Libya and Nigeria have been invited to the monitoring committee meeting to provide production outlooks, as some OPEC members have begun to urge their inclusion in output cuts.

Saudi Arabia, which continues to lead the producer group in compliance with its quota under the deal, produced 10.02 million b/d in August, according to secondary sources, while the kingdom self-reported August output of 9.95 million b/d. Both figures are below its quota of 10.058 million b/d.

Iraq, among the least compliant of the participants, produced 4.45 million b/d in August, according to secondary sources, though it self-reported a figure of 4.38 million b/d. It has a quota of 4.351 million b/d.

Third-largest producer Iran, which has a quota of 3.80 million b/d, produced 3.83 million b/d in August, according to secondary sources, while self-reporting a figure of 3.85 million b/d.


OPEC's analysts kept their forecast for 2017 non-OPEC oil supply unchanged from last month at 57.80 million b/d, growth of 780,000 b/d from 2016.

For 2018, non-OPEC oil supply was revised down 100,000 b/d from July's estimate to 58.80 million b/d, up 1 million b/d from 2017.

The report cited "the currently improving price environment, which is more suitable for the shale producers, the start-up of giant projects such as Kashagan, the increasing number of active rigs in North America and the proportionally remarkable investment in upstream projects," as reasons for its projected growth in non-OPEC supply for 2017.

However, it noted that non-OPEC supply growth will taper in the second half of 2017, which "suggests the possibility of more market rebalancing in 1H18."

On the demand side, OPEC revised upward its forecasts of total world oil demand for 2017 by 50,000 b/d from last month to 96.77 million b/d, a rise of 1.42 million b/d from 2016.

For 2018, OPEC also revised up its estimate from last month, by 70,000 b/d to average 98.12 million b/d, an increase of 1.35 million b/d from 2017.

The increased demand forecasts come despite Hurricane Harvey, which OPEC's analysts said would have a "relatively minor" impact on US economic growth and oil demand.

But the report also noted that Hurricane Irma and other storms that could follow may have knock-on effects for the oil market.

"In response, OPEC reiterates its commitment to working together with other stakeholders for the stability and security of the oil market," it said.

--Herman Wang,

--Edited by Jonathan Dart,