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London — The International Energy Agency on Thursday raised its forecast of global oil demand for this year by 400,000 b/d to 94.0 million b/d, but said the demand surge seen in the first half was likely to wane somewhat.

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Despite a strong first half, "due to the temporary nature of many of the factors that contributed to the upside, annual growth may subside in 2H15," the IEA said in its latest monthly oil market report.

The report put second quarter demand 500,000 b/d higher than in last month's edition, while putting expected demand in both the third and fourth quarters 200,000 b/d higher than in last month's report.

It attributed the expected slowdown to a deteriorating outlook for demand growth in OECD countries as the stimulus from low fuel prices peters out and economies normalize after "post-recessionary bounces."


The IEA raised its expectation of the "call" on OPEC in the second half by 150,000 b/d compared with its previous report to 30.2 million b/d, noting this was 1 million b/d below what the group has been producing in recent months.

It also said OECD commercial inventories had risen by a "steep" 38.0 million barrels in April, ending the month 147 million barrels above average levels, the widest difference since April 2009.

Preliminary data suggested a 12.6 million barrel increase in May, it added.

The report said OPEC had increased its output by 50,000 b/d in May to 31.33 million b/d, with Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the UAE all pumping at record monthly rates.

"Barring unforeseen outages, OPEC is likely to keep pumping at around 31 million b/d during the coming months as Middle East producers sustain higher rates to preserve market share and meet summer domestic demand," it said.

The IEA raised its forecast of non-OPEC supply in 2015 by 195,000 b/d to 58.0 million b/d.

"Lower oil prices and a drop in capital spending are taking time to curb non-OPEC supply," the report said.

"An upward revision to the US baseline and the expectation of fewer summer field maintenance shutdowns than previously forecast in the North Sea and the former Soviet Union underpin the higher figure."

--Nick Coleman, nick.coleman@platts.com
--Edited by Jeremy Lovell, jeremy.lovell@platts.com