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Oil

IEA raises 2018 oil demand growth estimate to 1.4 million b/d

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IEA raises 2018 oil demand growth estimate to 1.4 million b/d

London — The International Energy Agency on Tuesday raised its estimate of global oil demand growth this year to 1.4 million b/d, but also raised its estimate of US oil output growth to 1.52 million b/d, citing the shale industry's "second wave" of growth.

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In its monthly oil market report, the IEA also said oil stocks in the OECD countries had fallen by 55.6 million barrels in December to 2.851 billion barrels, a level 52 million barrels above the five-year average and the steepest monthly drop since February 2011.

It noted that its new estimate of demand growth this year was still below last year's 1.6 million b/d.

It also estimated OPEC crude production stood unchanged on the month in January at 32.16 million b/d, as the group collectively increased compliance with its production pact to 137%, but Nigeria increased its output.

However the IEA also raised its estimate of total US liquids production growth this year to 1.52 million b/d, estimating average US production of 14.72 million b/d in 2018, compared with a growth estimate of 1.35 million b/d in last month's report.

It warned that the decline in OECD oil stocks might go into reverse on the back of the revival in shale.

"The underlying oil market fundamentals in the early part of 2018 look less supportive for prices," the report said.

--Nick Coleman, nick.coleman@spglobal.com
--James Leech, james.leech@spglobal.com