Platts Analytics' Bentek Energy sample flow data from South Texas to Mexico showed the to-date October average hovering around 1.31 Bcf/d, the highest first half month since August, which averaged 1.37 Bcf/d during the tail end of the Mexican summer.
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The flow increase is driven by higher deliveries from various Tennessee Gas Pipeline meters, as well as from Natural Gas Pipeline Company to NET Mexico, which is currently delivering 297 MMcf/d to the key Mexican export pipeline, the second highest average of 2017.
On the pricing side, NGPL-STX cash basis has averaged just under minus 5 cents through October, significantly stronger than the September cash basis average of minus 10 cents/MMBtu and the strongest basis level NGPL-STX has attained in 2017, according to Platts pricing data.
The current half month sits 150 MMcf/d above September levels during the same timeframe, however, the larger month on month discrepancy is heavily influenced by Hurricane Harvey, which curtailed flows from STX into Mexico during the first few days of September.
Platts Analytics data shows that during the stretch of Hurricane Harvey from August 25 through September 6, the date NGPL lifted the force majeure at Compressor Station 300 on Segment 22, total Texas exports, including El Paso Natural Gas in West Texas, averaged 847 MMcf/d, a drop of nearly 530 MMcf/d from August levels.
If October continues on its current pace, it could close out the month at the highest level since May when the delivery sample data reached a peak of around 1.46 Bcf/d on the backs of peak 2017 flows from NGPL and TGP into Mexico.
Related: Find more content about Mexico's commodity landscape in our news and analysis feature. Additionally, read our special report, Mexico's energy transformation takes hold.
--Ryan Ouwerkerk, firstname.lastname@example.org
--Edited by Richard Rubin, email@example.com