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Dutch, German spot natural gas prices rise on Groningen debate, NBP gains

Highlights

* TTF spot rose 30 euro cent from Monday's close
* NCG, GASPOOL spot at parity
* Near-term prices move higher on spot

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Dutch and German spot gas prices rose Tuesday morning on short-covering ahead of a Dutch parliament debate on lowering the production cap at the Groningen field, and was supported by similar gains posted in UK NBP spot.

By midday London time, TTF day-ahead last traded at Eur11.05/MWh, up 30 euro cent from Monday's close. German GASPOOL last traded at Eur11.30/MWh, a 57.5 euro cent rise, while its NetConnect peer was also at Eur11.30/MWh, up 37.5 euro cent.

The Dutch parliament will debate Wednesday a plan for a lower production cap at the Groningen natural gas field, expected to be finalized by the end of September.

Article Continues below...

Continental spot contracts were supported by a recovery in the NBP spot which last traded before midday at 22.70 p/th against Monday's close of 20.60 p/th, on a mix of higher demand expectations and lower imports.

A new planned event was indicated to start Tuesday at Karsto with a volume reduction of 12 million cu m/d and scheduled to October 1, while planned maintenance at the Kollness processing plant was revised to end September 17, with a volume reduction of 38.5 million cu m/d, Gassco said.

Real-time Norwegian flow rates into Emden-Dornum on the Dutch-German border Tuesday were 74.35 million cu m/day around midday London time, according to transmission systems operator Gassco, up from 55.23 million cu m/d at the same time Monday.

Continental spot contracts took direction from a bearish NBP spot which last traded before midday at 22.90 pence/therm against Friday's close of 23.25 p/th on a combination of a well supplied gas system and Brent crude falls.

CustomWeather forecast temperatures in Amsterdam would be 10 degrees Celsius above seasonal norms Tuesday and Wednesday. Berlin, in the GASPOOL area, was predicted to be 10 C above seasonal norms Tuesday and 8 C above Wednesday. Similarly in Munich, in the NCG area, temperatures were expected to be 6 C above seasonal norms Tuesday and falling to 5 C above Wednesday.

At around midday London time, Platts Analytics' Eclipse Energy forecast end-of-day consumption in the Netherlands at 72.7 million cu m Tuesday and Wednesday. Supply in the Netherlands was expected expected at 164.8 million cu m for the same days.

In Germany, consumption was expected at 157 million cu m for Tuesday and Wednesday, with supply forecast at 353.2 million cu m for the same days.

The short-term demand model is calculated from the latest demand, temperature and wind speed out-turns.

Gains from the spot filtered down into later-dated contracts. TTF October last traded at Eur12.125/MWh by midday London time, up 32.5 euro cent from the previous close.

The German GASPOOL and NCG front-month contracts were both last seen trading at Eur12.20/MWh, up 30 euro cent and 7.5 euro cent, respectively.