London — Dutch TTF day-ahead gas prices edged higher Friday morning because temperatures are expected to fall, while German prices were mixed as GASPOOL's discount to the NCG widened.
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By midday London time, TTF day-ahead last traded at Eur11.10/MWh, up 5 euro cent from Thursday's close, while the corresponding NCG and GASPOOL spot contracts were mixed, with NCG up 10 euro cent at Eur11.475, while GASPOOL edged lower 2.5 euro cent at Eur11.30/MWh. GASPOOL widened its discount to NCG to 17.5 euro cent to GASPOOL from 5 euro cent at Thursday's close.
CustomWeather forecast temperatures in Amsterdam at 7 degree Celsius above seasonal norms Friday and 3 C above norms Monday falling to 1 C above norms Tuesday. Berlin, in the GASPOOL area, at 8 C above seasonal norms Friday and 5 C above norms Monday falling to 1 C above norms Tuesday, while in Munich, in the NCG area, temperatures were expected to be 5 C above seasonal Friday rising Monday to 6 C above seasonal norms before falling to 1 C above seasonal norms Tuesday.
End-of-day consumption and supply in the Netherlands were expected to be rangebound Friday and Monday at 63.2 million cu m and 122.2 million cu m respectively, Platts Analytics' Eclipse Energy said.
In Germany, consumption was expected at 165.1 million cu m on Friday and Monday, while supply was expected to tick down million cu m to 363.6 million cu m Monday.
The short-term demand model is calculated from the latest demand, temperature and wind speed out-turns.
Real-time Norwegian flow rates into Emden-Dornum on the Dutch-German border Friday were lower at 108 million cu m/day around midday London time, according to transmission system operator Gassco, from around 122.6 million cu m/d the same time Thursday.
While further in the curve, TTF September last traded by midday London time at Eur11.125/MWh, up 7.5 euro cent from Thursday's close, while the corresponding NCG and GASPOOL front-month contracts traded 11.5 euro cent and 10 euro cent higher at Eur11.44/MWh and Eur11.35/MWh, respectively.