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German day-ahead gas prices fall on warmer temperatures; Dutch TTF spot edges lower

London — German day-ahead gas prices were down Wednesday morning retracing previous gains as warmer temperatures are expected over the next few days, while Dutch TTF spot gas edged lower on a comfortable system with temperatures at seasonal norms.

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While month-ahead gas contracts in Germany and in the Netherlands were seen trading slightly lower, awaiting the crude inventory report this afternoon to provide guidance and possibly reverse bearish sentiment.

By around midday London time, TTF day-ahead had edged 2.5 euro cent lower to Eur13.40/MWh, while German GASPOOL and NCG equivalents were both down 12.5 euro cent at Eur13.70/MWh and Eur13.575/MWh, respectively.

Netconnect's discount to GASPOOL widened to 12.5 euro cent Wednesday morning, from 10 euro cent Tuesday at midday.

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Temperatures were expected to be warmer in Germany while in Amsterdam temperatures are expected to return to seasonal norms.

CustomWeather forecast temperatures in Amsterdam would be 1 degree Celsius above seasonal norms Wednesday and returning to norms Thursday.

Berlin, in the GASPOOL area, was predicted at 1 C below seasonal norms Wednesday, rising to 2 C above norms Thursday, while in Munich, in the NCG area, temperatures were expected to be 1 C above seasonal norms Wednesday and Thursday.

End-of-day nominated demand in the Netherlands was indicated at 56.1 million cu m Wednesday and Thursday, according to Platts Analytics' Eclipse Energy. Supply also looked stable at 207.3 million cu m on both days.

In Germany, nominated demand was at 162.5 million cu m on both days.

Supply was nominated at 424.1 million cu m/d Wednesday and 418.4 million cu m/d Thursday.

Platts Analytics' short-term demand model is calculated from latest demand, temperature and wind speed out-turns in addition to deviations between weather forecasts and these last out-turns.

Real-time Norwegian flow rates into Emden-Dornum on the Dutch-German border Wednesday were at 123 million cu m/day around midday London time, up from about 118.5 million cu m/day on Tuesday at the same time, according to Gassco.

September TTF traded at Eur13.75/MWh at about midday, down 5 euro cent on from the previous session. Corresponding GASPOOL was seen trading lower at Eur13.875/MWh down 2.5 euro cent, while NCG September was flat last heard trading at Eur13.975/MWh.